TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

The donors had a mixed weekend this past weekend. We got 2086 points, placing us at nearly 33k for the week, but we have risen nearly 23k spots in the over-all, to now be at 60,781.

Join me over the break for a detailed analysis of our week.<!--more-->

Due to some unfortunate circumstances we missed the lockout, and didn’t get the trades done that were mentioned in the forums – but its ok because the team still did well enough and in the end everyone is ok!

The team breakdown went a bit like this (and this week I’ll even remember to include our bench):

1. Goddard DEF,93
2. Deledio DEF,102
3. Broughton DEF,85
4. Bugg DEF,83
5. Clarke DEF,89
6. Morris DEF,80
7. Ellis DEF,83
8. Ablett Captain 134 x 2 MID,268
9. Selwood MID,144
10. Pendlebury Vice Captain MID,134
11. Magner MID,66
12. Shiel MID,69
13. McDonald MID,78
14. Cox RUC,96
15. Giles Emergency RUC,106
16. Franklin FWD,89
17. Dangerfield FWD,91
18. Porplyzia FWD,95
19. Martin FWD,79
20. Kennedy FWD,40
21. Milera FWD,61
22. Smith FWD,55
1. Shaw DEF,0
2. Lake DEF,0
3. Smith Emergency MID,0
4. Ledger MID,0
5. Mumford RUC,0
6. Redden RUC,0
7. Fyfe FWD,0
8. Dickson Emergency FWD,0

Down back we had some pretty solid scores, with everyone getting past 80 points! Goddard’s 93 was a little disappointing, while Deledio’s 102 was very nice. Broughton’s 85 was also a little short of what would be expected, but our rookies did their part with Bugg’s 83, Clarke’s 89, Morris’ 80, and Ellis’ 83. Our two bench players in Shaw and Lake didn’t player, but they’re going to have some stiff competition to get back into the side.

In the mids we had captain Gazza’s doubled 134 to give us a nice 268, with top-scorer Selwood doing very nicely indeed on 144! Pendlebury looks to have shaken of the poor showing last time out, with a great 134. Meanwhile our rookies couldn’t live up to their previous bests, or the heights of the backline, with Magner bringing in 66, Shiel on 69,...
I just want to use the pre-spiel of this post to mention something quickly.

We have a partial lockout this Wednesday. So if youre looking to reverse any trades- dont forget that they are locked in once that rolling lockout occurs!

Beware.

Also, with Gaz- if he does require a tradeout, you wont have the option of going into a Magpie, unless you go early with it. Dangerous play if you ask me.

And with that, check out the full review over the break.

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St Kilda vs Fremantle

Result: Fremantle by 13, 14.8.92 to 11.13.79

With a horrible record against the Saints, particularly in Melbourne, it was always going to be a tough ask for the Docker. Particularly with Fyfe not making it up for the game! St. Kilda had the best of it for the first half, though some inaccurate kicking saw them leading into the major change by just 6 points. (With 6 more scoring shots!) A big 3rd quarter to the Dockers saw them kick 5.3 (which co-incidently was 1 less point than the Saints could manage in the second half), and run out eventual 3 goal winners.

Sandilands was massive (*boom tish*), winning 44 hitouts, along with 20 disposals for a 121SC. Duffield is definitely looking an astute choice right now. His rebounding roll is looking very lucrative, this time, a 22 touch 116SC.

Barlow accumulated 30 touches, for just a 100SC- but is definitely breaking into stride, while Broughton did "enough", scoring 25 touches for an 85SC.

Neale played his first game for the season, and in true rookie fashion, rocked a sub-effected 27SC. Im really starting to think that our second string of cashcows (the first downgrades), may find themselves seriously effected in the cash-generation stakes if this keeps up!

Hayes battled hard for the Saints, 30 touches were enough to see him bring up the 104SC. Jones (109) and Geary (100) were the only other Saints to crack that tone.

Milera and...
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Round 4 comes to a close and we find every team in the ORFFL with at least one win on the board, well every team except one. Humpty Doo put up a valiant last stand under considerable duress, but alas it just wasn't to be. In fact, in a peculiarity of the ORFFL, six travelling teams covered themselves in glory on the weekend. Speaks to the competition's strong logistics, if not its weak medical staff. To the review!



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TARWIN LOWER PIGS1104 Def byQUEENSTOWN QUOLLS1121



What a face-tightener this clash was, Queenstown notching its first win of the season over Tarwin Lower by just 17 points. Adam Cooney was the undisputed hero here, his 115 points at the death a match winning performance. Dane Swan (121) and Jobe Watson (104) were the only other Quolls to crack triple figures, and I imagine all and sundry will be celebrating on the tip back to Queenstown.



Tarwin Lower on the other hand were desperately unlucky, Carrots (3) going down in the opening minutes, costing them dearly not just this week, but for months to come. Hocking (34) and Edwards (25) had shockers, but the Pigs saw a return to form of Pendles (134) and Hanley (118), and the continuation of the form Geary (100) and Giles (106).







<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/4154/popovstt.jpg[/img];



POOWONG POTOROOS1326 DefTORRUMBARRY THUNDA1218



Gary Ablett. Wasn't as DOMINANT this round, but it didn't matter as the Potoroos scampered (?) away to a 108 point win over the Thunda. Sewell (122) and the Thompson Twins (110, 125) put in crackers, along with a plentiful supporting cast in Bob Murphy (108), Darling (97), Mzungu (99). Gary had a bit of a downer (134). Needs to lift.



While on the other...
Here’s a rundown of GW35 as the race for the title, top 4 and fight for relegation all hots up. Join me over the break…

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Man Utd v Everton

Utd recovered well from their loss at Wigan to take four off Villa in a home banker. Rooney – who has been shortlisted for the PFA Player of the Year award – didn’t let some patchy form stop him from scoring a brace, albeit a penalty and a deflection.

This game at a glance looks like one of two potential banana skins for Utd, Sunderland away on the last day being the other. And if Utd can post a victory here, then you feel it’s a huge step towards the title.

Baines will miss out with a hammy. Drenthe has been dropped for disciplinary reasons.

Wolves v Man City

Balotelli is the only out for City but since they’ve scored 10 in his two game absence it shouldn’t be too much of a worry. Tevez and Aguero have both scored four in that time.

Like earlier in the season, City are really punishing their opponents into submission. Yaya Toure should come back in. Richards and Zabalta continue to be rotated. On form, Wolves are going to take a hell of a spanking. The unfortunate Hennessey is now out for the season for Wolves.

Arsenal v Chelsea

RVP fresh from his tête-à-tête with Gary Caldwell will face up against a weakened Chelsea defence. Ivanovic (suspended) and Luiz are both out, which will likely see Cahill and Bosingwa get some game time.

Bosingwa may not yet have recovered from the 3-5 game the last time these two met, when RVP scored a hat-trick.

Arteta will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury, while Benayoun will be absent due to his loan arrangements. Drogba is out with a knee injury.

Fulham v Wigan

TopHeavy mentioned that Martinez should win the Manager of the Year award for what he’s done this year with limited resources. If they stay up it’s hard to disagree. Personally, I’m happy to see four fellow countrymen playing their part in it. Caldwell, Maloney,...
Wow! What a week it's been in football interwebs! I haven't LOL'd this hard since I realised cats could emote. And yet with great mirth, its antithesis, great tragedy, must follow; the ORFFL beginning to see the real toll of last weeks Carnage Round. Players missing left, right and Humpty Doo. Makes me sad :(



At least no dogs were harmed though. NOW WITH HAME DAY UPDATES



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TARWIN LOWER PIGS(860/11) VSQUEENSTOWN QUOLLS(770/10)



On paper it would a appear that Tarwin Lower are more than a match for Queenstown, but the ORFFL is a funny game where anything can happen in a given week. Leading the charge for the Pigs are a mix of relative lesser lights in Bastinac, Giles and Edwards, and relative stars in Riewoldt, Carrots and McIntosh. And of course, the Artist Formerly Known As Dependles, who will seek to atone for an atrocious 62 he scored last weekend.



Meanwhile, for the travelling Quolls the midfield is still king, with its defence pressing up hard, then running like mad to support. Swan has a good chance to knock up a good score against his bunnies in Port Adelaide, and Yarran to run rings around some red and black witches hats.



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POOWONG POTOROOS (677/7) VSTORRUMBARRY THUNDA(1189/14)



Gary Ablett.



It's still the first and last words when talking about the Potoroos. Gary is a prince and makes his teammates look like hacks, which I can imagine could be dispiriting. Their coach needs to have a sit down with Messers SJ and Dawes and tell them they're still good players, capable of good scores. Lie to them.



Dempster.



Word of the week for the Thunda, top scorer in last weeks game for Torroumbarry. Aside from their two stars in he and Franklin, it's a relatively even...
Best bets is back - and given limited time between teams coming out, and running calculations:  lets great straight into it.  Tips for this week:

Fremantle (St Kilda)
Carlton (Essendon)
Collingwood (Port)
Adelaide (GWS)
Brisbane (Gold Coast)
Hawthorn (West Coast)
Richmond (Geelong)
North Melbourne (Sydney)
DRAW (Bulldogs - Melbourne)

Walk away now, or read on as to why Richmond at $5.50 has been picked over Geelong...

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So-  Ive been tracking the supercoach value of a team versus their opponent, with the novel idea that the higher the % value of the team, the more likely the win.  I was right.  Out of the 27 games so far this year, the higher value team has won 23 times.  That would have meant, Freo and NM would have been tipped to beat Geelong, and the only "true" upsets this year have been: Bris over Melb, Port over Saints, Cats over Hawks &amp; the Blues against the Pies.  See the correlation below (which ignores GWS due to irrelevant current value):

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC-Team.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5827" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC-Team.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

And whilst the correlation is far from perfect, we can measure the error rate:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Error.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5828" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Error.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

What does this all mean?

It means that when the prediction is for Carlton to win by 12 points, 50% of the time, this will be correct within 23 points...i.e. 50% chance of Ess by 11 through to Carl by 35.  This becomes very useful when comparing against the line...and in this instance, the line for Carlton is at 40 points...which I would take Essendon +40 given the likelihood is 80% versus odds at 50% (or thereabouts).

Anyway, rather than go through the whole thing - shoot some questions through and...
Well, nearly underway, before then however, we get to enjoy a little mayhem, Mayhem, MAYHEM!!

Rucks, there will be donuts. Backlines, Donuts. Forwards and Mid, should be fine, but hey- its round 4 already and its a donut factory!

What a year, right! :D

As always, let us know your last minute trades, or join us in the <href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gaeday&id=10251128&process=live">live chat[/url] to enjoy the games with some friendly banter.
Round 3 recap: Ablett. What more can I say. Ablett. After his huge 182 SC points from 45 disposals last week (despite being tagged by Howlett and Hocking and even being manned up by Stanton at stages), the only question is how quickly can we all click the “C” to make him captain (or how quickly can we get him into our team). As Jet pointed out in last week’s thread, maybe I should just call this the Vice-Captain’s Log.

Round 3 regrets: Pendlebury. Well, who would have thought that my second choice would be totally outplayed by Carrazzo last week. He had a shocking performance. My smoky for the week, Stanton, didn’t do much better as he was tagged out of the game by Harbrow and only managed 20 touches for 93 SC points.

Here are the numbers for Round 4 (but do you really need to see them??) …
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Swan v. Port Adelaide

Rd 20 2011: 136 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 166 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 127 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 166 SC points, 48 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 118 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 118 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 20 2006: 100 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 5 2006: 107 SC points, 22 disposals

Average is 130 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Port Adelaide can’t stop him. Is normally (and recently) been tagged by Cassisi after others had failed: Matt Thomas/Chad Cornes (2009), Chad Cornes/Shaun Burgoyne (2008). Still racks up big possession totals and big scores. A quiet start to the year with 92 against Hawthorn in Round 1 followed by 100 in Round 2 against Richmond and then 109 in Round 3 against Carlton.

Ablett v. Brisbane

Rd 21 2011: 134 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 75 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 144 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 102 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 149 SC points, 42 disposals
Rd 22 2007: 99 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 142 SC points, 35 disposals

Average is 119 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Three scores over 140 against...
Wow, a lot of movement this week- and a fair good number of rookies getting their first games, heres hoping they do alright for the round 5 early downgrade.

Dempsey and Fyfe are still in, which is nice- though Im suprised that Dempsey wasnt rested to keep him fresh for the Collingwood game. Cant imagine him playing both!

A truck load of outs, Shaw, Grimes and Lake will be hurting our backlines, while Goodes gives our forward like a quick kick to the jubblies.

Greene and Clay Smith will leave a few midfields struggling, particularly if youre holding Stevens, or Ledger- who is still out.

McDonald is back in (Thank god!), and Dickson will provide a bit of forwardline relief for those who have him, but wow, donuts might be on the menu already!

Reckon we were spoilt last year with the 3 bench spots- forgot how hard this whole capper is!!

Main ins and outs are below, while the full teams are over the break.

Ins: Ballantyne, Neale, DellOlio, Paine, Pfeiffer, McDonald, Crisp, Hill, Stringer, Schroder, Cunningham, Dickson
Outs: Shaw, Thomas, Ball, Redden, Kerridge, Greene, Leuenberger, Longer, Stevens, Goodes, Grimes, Lake, Smith
Extended Bench: Stephenson, Ellis, Malceski, Parker, Harvey, McIntosh, Dickson

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<h3>TEAMS:
<h3>St Kilda
B: Jarryn Geary, Sam Gilbert, Jason Blake

HB: Tom Simpkin, Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster

C: Nick Dal Santo, Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard

HF: Jack Steven, Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna

F: Stephen Milne, Rhys Stanley, Terry Milera

Foll: Ben McEvoy, David Armitage, Clinton Jones

I/C: Justin Koschitzke, Jamie Cripps, Dean Polo, Jack Newnes

Emg: Farren Ray, Brett Peake, Beau Wilkes
<h3>Fremantle
B: Garrick Ibbotson, Zac Dawson, Adam McPhee

HB: Michael Johnson, Luke McPharlin, Tendai Mzungu

C: Paul Duffield, Ryan Crowley, Stephen Hill

HF: Matthew de Boer, Christopher Mayne, Clancee Pearce

F: Hayden Ballantyne, Matthew Pavlich, Zachary Clarke

Foll: Aaron...
Well with the 1st week of matches being run and won after the dust settled we can see the Convicts ( TS ) won 4 of the 7 matches against the Unwashed  ( FF ). With 2 "Local Derbys" being played. In the first game ....
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Bones 2169 inserted the defeat pinapple VERY deep on a venerable Yani 1975. Word is Yani is importing an sphincster specialist to right the wrongs of a painful weekend !!!. Which gives FF Bones top billing on the ladder.

In the other "Local Derby" TS Nedflanders 2183 belted TS Crossy 2051 . Was a fair bit of lip prior to this game (The way it should be) but like I said in the preseason preview you gotta be on your game against Ned. Crossy was rumored to have gone pig hunting (Bare handed) to release the anger !!.

In the 3rd game the hard nut FF  Brogie 2258 with the kneecap threat on all players worked as his boys came out the box like a gun greyhound and left TS Walesy 2141 stranded. Word is Walesy got a visit from the injury reaper and now has the duct tape out to repair a depleated side.Which left TS 0/1 down.

Then FF Schlock 2121 as stated took to TS Eleviathan 2033 after finally shaking Ele when Sammy Mitchell failed to fire. As predicted the Schlock was as cold as charity and did bad things to Ele but Ele being a forward thinker was ready and avoided injury so is fit to play this weekend !!. That put TS 0/2 down.

Seeing this TS SCSS 2106 stood up and chalked one up for our guys at the expence of FF Mancdave 2055. Supercoachsuperstar is a big title to put on your shoulders but fair game so far the big fellas up for it !!. Word is the big mad Dave was a bitter man and hit the pint parade to ease the pain !!!???. That made TS 1/2 down.

Then points leader prior to the round FF Edbull 1995 managed to beat TS Sainter 1951 with both dropping about 200 to thier average. Guessing some Fyfe, Dempsey, Luenburger ect. came into this game. Was an "ugly" win but no matter as Edbull is sucking on the cigar while Sainter was...