TooSerious

Before we jump into the teams, theres a couple of quick pints that I wanted to cover.

Partial lockout
Yes, its another partial lockout and that means a couple of things.

Firstly, it means we get another crack at the captains loophole. Set the non-playing Ablett as your C and choose from any Collingwood or Essendon player to be your VC. Means that if Pendles bangs out a 170, you keep it, whereas a 120 would see you moving the C to someone else.

Secondly, dont forget that while it a partial lockout, it will still lock in any trades youve made - so you wont be able to reverse them!

And dont forget, as always- the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10251142&process=live">Live Chat[/url] will be up and pumping throughout the game.

Full teams are over the break

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<h3>Collingwood v Essendon</h3>
MCG &#8211; Wed Apr 25, 2:40pm
Collingwood
B: Heritier O&#8217;Brien, Lachlan Keeffe, Nathan Brown

HB: Simon Buckley, Nick Maxwell, Tyson Goldsack

C: Dane Swan, Sharrod Wellingham, Ben Johnson

HF: Paul Seedsman, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair

F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Alex Fasolo

Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom

I/C: Alan Toovey, Martin Clarke, Jarryd Blair, Kirk Ugle
Emg: Alan Didak, Cameron Wood, Tom Young
In: Nathan Brown, Kirk Ugle

Out: Tom Young, Jackson Paine
New: Kirk Ugle (Swan Districts)
Essendon
B: Dustin Fletcher, Cale Hooker, Dyson Heppell

HB: Michael Hibberd, Tayte Pears, Kyle Hardingham

C: Jake Melksham, Jobe Watson, David Zaharakis

HF: Brent Stanton, Patrick Ryder, Jake Carlisle

F: Alwyn Davey, Stewart Crameri, Leroy Jetta

Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Heath Hocking, Angus Monfries

I/C: Ricky Dyson, Sam Lonergan, Ben Howlett, Cory Dell&#8217;Olio
Emg: Henry Slattery, Travis Colyer,...

Evening all,

The Pies v Bombers clash has brought about some great contests, since they drew in the inaugural Anzac Day clash back in 1995.  Since then, the count is 9-7 in Collingwoods favour, with 4 games decided by less than 2 kicks, and the margin blowing out by over 10 goals on just 3 occasions.

Both have experienced periods of dominance throughout this time, with the Bombers unbeatable during 99-01, where they won a premiership, played in another GF and made a prelim.  Collingwood however have had the upper hand in the last 6 years, winning all but one contest when Zaharakis kicked that famous goal.

But there is a smell of change in the air.  Collingwood, almost unstoppable as little as 6 months ago, who since losing the GF are sitting at 2-2, with all but modest victories to date over Richmond and Port Adelaide.  Essendon on the otherhand, are on the way up, being one of 3 unbeaten sides after 4 rounds, and most notably coming off a big win over the highly fancied Carlton last Saturday.

To see what lies ahead, click over the page...<!--more-->Collingwood have been down on predicted form this year - not just in the eyes of the pundits or the bookies, but the stats tell the same story.  Based on the team theyve had on the park, they should be sitting at 3-1:

Loss to Hawthorn by 22 points  (predicted to lose by 25 points)
Win over Richmond by 21 points (predicted to win by 10 points)
Loss to Carlton by 60 points (predicted to win by 13 points)
Win over Port Adelaide by 24 points (predicted to win by 22 points)

Overall they are 1 win down and 57 points down against expected (but still played above themselves on 3 out of 4 occasions).

Surprisingly, Essendon have also been playing below their statistical expectations, despite their 4-0 start to the year:

Win over North Melbourne by 2 points (predicted to win by 24 points)
Win over Port Adelaide by 25 points (predicted to win by 48 points)
Win over Gold Coast by 17 points (predicted...

The donors had a mixed weekend this past weekend. We got 2086 points, placing us at nearly 33k for the week, but we have risen nearly 23k spots in the over-all, to now be at 60,781.

Join me over the break for a detailed analysis of our week.<!--more-->

Due to some unfortunate circumstances we missed the lockout, and didn’t get the trades done that were mentioned in the forums – but its ok because the team still did well enough and in the end everyone is ok!

The team breakdown went a bit like this (and this week I’ll even remember to include our bench):

1. Goddard DEF,93
2. Deledio DEF,102
3. Broughton DEF,85
4. Bugg DEF,83
5. Clarke DEF,89
6. Morris DEF,80
7. Ellis DEF,83
8. Ablett Captain 134 x 2 MID,268
9. Selwood MID,144
10. Pendlebury Vice Captain MID,134
11. Magner MID,66
12. Shiel MID,69
13. McDonald MID,78
14. Cox RUC,96
15. Giles Emergency RUC,106
16. Franklin FWD,89
17. Dangerfield FWD,91
18. Porplyzia FWD,95
19. Martin FWD,79
20. Kennedy FWD,40
21. Milera FWD,61
22. Smith FWD,55
1. Shaw DEF,0
2. Lake DEF,0
3. Smith Emergency MID,0
4. Ledger MID,0
5. Mumford RUC,0
6. Redden RUC,0
7. Fyfe FWD,0
8. Dickson Emergency FWD,0

Down back we had some pretty solid scores, with everyone getting past 80 points! Goddard’s 93 was a little disappointing, while Deledio’s 102 was very nice. Broughton’s 85 was also a little short of what would be expected, but our rookies did their part with Bugg’s 83, Clarke’s 89, Morris’ 80, and Ellis’ 83. Our two bench players in Shaw and Lake didn’t player, but they’re going to have some stiff competition to get back into the side.

In the mids we had captain Gazza’s doubled 134 to give us a nice 268, with top-scorer Selwood doing very nicely indeed on 144! Pendlebury looks to have shaken of the poor showing last time out, with a great 134. Meanwhile our rookies couldn’t live up to their previous bests, or the heights of the backline, with Magner bringing in 66, Shiel on 69,...

I just want to use the pre-spiel of this post to mention something quickly.

We have a partial lockout this Wednesday. So if youre looking to reverse any trades- dont forget that they are locked in once that rolling lockout occurs!

Beware.

Also, with Gaz- if he does require a tradeout, you wont have the option of going into a Magpie, unless you go early with it. Dangerous play if you ask me.

And with that, check out the full review over the break.

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St Kilda vs Fremantle

Result: Fremantle by 13, 14.8.92 to 11.13.79

With a horrible record against the Saints, particularly in Melbourne, it was always going to be a tough ask for the Docker. Particularly with Fyfe not making it up for the game! St. Kilda had the best of it for the first half, though some inaccurate kicking saw them leading into the major change by just 6 points. (With 6 more scoring shots!) A big 3rd quarter to the Dockers saw them kick 5.3 (which co-incidently was 1 less point than the Saints could manage in the second half), and run out eventual 3 goal winners.

Sandilands was massive (*boom tish*), winning 44 hitouts, along with 20 disposals for a 121SC. Duffield is definitely looking an astute choice right now. His rebounding roll is looking very lucrative, this time, a 22 touch 116SC.

Barlow accumulated 30 touches, for just a 100SC- but is definitely breaking into stride, while Broughton did "enough", scoring 25 touches for an 85SC.

Neale played his first game for the season, and in true rookie fashion, rocked a sub-effected 27SC. Im really starting to think that our second string of cashcows (the first downgrades), may find themselves seriously effected in the cash-generation stakes if this keeps up!

Hayes battled hard for the Saints, 30 touches were enough to see him bring up the 104SC. Jones (109) and Geary (100) were the only other Saints to crack that tone.

Milera and...

Round 4 comes to a close and we find every team in the ORFFL with at least one win on the board, well every team except one. Humpty Doo put up a valiant last stand under considerable duress, but alas it just wasn't to be. In fact, in a peculiarity of the ORFFL, six travelling teams covered themselves in glory on the weekend. Speaks to the competition's strong logistics, if not its weak medical staff. To the review!



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<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/8548/tlpvsqq.jpg[/img];



TARWIN LOWER PIGS1104 Def byQUEENSTOWN QUOLLS1121



What a face-tightener this clash was, Queenstown notching its first win of the season over Tarwin Lower by just 17 points. Adam Cooney was the undisputed hero here, his 115 points at the death a match winning performance. Dane Swan (121) and Jobe Watson (104) were the only other Quolls to crack triple figures, and I imagine all and sundry will be celebrating on the tip back to Queenstown.



Tarwin Lower on the other hand were desperately unlucky, Carrots (3) going down in the opening minutes, costing them dearly not just this week, but for months to come. Hocking (34) and Edwards (25) had shockers, but the Pigs saw a return to form of Pendles (134) and Hanley (118), and the continuation of the form Geary (100) and Giles (106).







<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/4154/popovstt.jpg[/img];



POOWONG POTOROOS1326 DefTORRUMBARRY THUNDA1218



Gary Ablett. Wasn't as DOMINANT this round, but it didn't matter as the Potoroos scampered (?) away to a 108 point win over the Thunda. Sewell (122) and the Thompson Twins (110, 125) put in crackers, along with a plentiful supporting cast in Bob Murphy (108), Darling (97), Mzungu (99). Gary had a bit of a downer (134). Needs to lift.



While on the other...

Here’s a rundown of GW35 as the race for the title, top 4 and fight for relegation all hots up. Join me over the break…

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Man Utd v Everton

Utd recovered well from their loss at Wigan to take four off Villa in a home banker. Rooney – who has been shortlisted for the PFA Player of the Year award – didn’t let some patchy form stop him from scoring a brace, albeit a penalty and a deflection.

This game at a glance looks like one of two potential banana skins for Utd, Sunderland away on the last day being the other. And if Utd can post a victory here, then you feel it’s a huge step towards the title.

Baines will miss out with a hammy. Drenthe has been dropped for disciplinary reasons.

Wolves v Man City

Balotelli is the only out for City but since they’ve scored 10 in his two game absence it shouldn’t be too much of a worry. Tevez and Aguero have both scored four in that time.

Like earlier in the season, City are really punishing their opponents into submission. Yaya Toure should come back in. Richards and Zabalta continue to be rotated. On form, Wolves are going to take a hell of a spanking. The unfortunate Hennessey is now out for the season for Wolves.

Arsenal v Chelsea

RVP fresh from his tête-à-tête with Gary Caldwell will face up against a weakened Chelsea defence. Ivanovic (suspended) and Luiz are both out, which will likely see Cahill and Bosingwa get some game time.

Bosingwa may not yet have recovered from the 3-5 game the last time these two met, when RVP scored a hat-trick.

Arteta will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury, while Benayoun will be absent due to his loan arrangements. Drogba is out with a knee injury.

Fulham v Wigan

TopHeavy mentioned that Martinez should win the Manager of the Year award for what he’s done this year with limited resources. If they stay up it’s hard to disagree. Personally, I’m happy to see four fellow countrymen playing their part in it. Caldwell, Maloney,...

Wow! What a week it's been in football interwebs! I haven't LOL'd this hard since I realised cats could emote. And yet with great mirth, its antithesis, great tragedy, must follow; the ORFFL beginning to see the real toll of last weeks Carnage Round. Players missing left, right and Humpty Doo. Makes me sad



At least no dogs were harmed though. NOW WITH HAME DAY UPDATES



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TARWIN LOWER PIGS(860/11) VSQUEENSTOWN QUOLLS(770/10)



On paper it would a appear that Tarwin Lower are more than a match for Queenstown, but the ORFFL is a funny game where anything can happen in a given week. Leading the charge for the Pigs are a mix of relative lesser lights in Bastinac, Giles and Edwards, and relative stars in Riewoldt, Carrots and McIntosh. And of course, the Artist Formerly Known As Dependles, who will seek to atone for an atrocious 62 he scored last weekend.



Meanwhile, for the travelling Quolls the midfield is still king, with its defence pressing up hard, then running like mad to support. Swan has a good chance to knock up a good score against his bunnies in Port Adelaide, and Yarran to run rings around some red and black witches hats.



<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/4154/popovstt.jpg[/img];



POOWONG POTOROOS (677/7) VSTORRUMBARRY THUNDA(1189/14)



Gary Ablett.



It's still the first and last words when talking about the Potoroos. Gary is a prince and makes his teammates look like hacks, which I can imagine could be dispiriting. Their coach needs to have a sit down with Messers SJ and Dawes and tell them they're still good players, capable of good scores. Lie to them.



Dempster.



Word of the week for the Thunda, top scorer in last weeks game for Torroumbarry. Aside from their two stars in he and Franklin, it's a relatively even...

Best bets is back - and given limited time between teams coming out, and running calculations:  lets great straight into it.  Tips for this week:

Fremantle (St Kilda)
Carlton (Essendon)
Collingwood (Port)
Adelaide (GWS)
Brisbane (Gold Coast)
Hawthorn (West Coast)
Richmond (Geelong)
North Melbourne (Sydney)
DRAW (Bulldogs - Melbourne)

Walk away now, or read on as to why Richmond at $5.50 has been picked over Geelong...

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So-  Ive been tracking the supercoach value of a team versus their opponent, with the novel idea that the higher the % value of the team, the more likely the win.  I was right.  Out of the 27 games so far this year, the higher value team has won 23 times.  That would have meant, Freo and NM would have been tipped to beat Geelong, and the only "true" upsets this year have been: Bris over Melb, Port over Saints, Cats over Hawks &amp; the Blues against the Pies.  See the correlation below (which ignores GWS due to irrelevant current value):

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC-Team.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5827" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC-Team.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

And whilst the correlation is far from perfect, we can measure the error rate:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Error.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5828" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Error.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

What does this all mean?

It means that when the prediction is for Carlton to win by 12 points, 50% of the time, this will be correct within 23 points...i.e. 50% chance of Ess by 11 through to Carl by 35.  This becomes very useful when comparing against the line...and in this instance, the line for Carlton is at 40 points...which I would take Essendon +40 given the likelihood is 80% versus odds at 50% (or thereabouts).

Anyway, rather than go through the whole thing - shoot some questions through and...

Well, nearly underway, before then however, we get to enjoy a little mayhem, Mayhem, MAYHEM!!

Rucks, there will be donuts. Backlines, Donuts. Forwards and Mid, should be fine, but hey- its round 4 already and its a donut factory!

What a year, right!

As always, let us know your last minute trades, or join us in the <href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gaeday&id=10251128&process=live">live chat[/url] to enjoy the games with some friendly banter.

Round 3 recap: Ablett. What more can I say. Ablett. After his huge 182 SC points from 45 disposals last week (despite being tagged by Howlett and Hocking and even being manned up by Stanton at stages), the only question is how quickly can we all click the “C” to make him captain (or how quickly can we get him into our team). As Jet pointed out in last week’s thread, maybe I should just call this the Vice-Captain’s Log.

Round 3 regrets: Pendlebury. Well, who would have thought that my second choice would be totally outplayed by Carrazzo last week. He had a shocking performance. My smoky for the week, Stanton, didn’t do much better as he was tagged out of the game by Harbrow and only managed 20 touches for 93 SC points.

Here are the numbers for Round 4 (but do you really need to see them??) …
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Swan v. Port Adelaide

Rd 20 2011: 136 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 1 2011: 166 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 15 2010: 127 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 166 SC points, 48 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 118 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 118 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 20 2006: 100 SC points, 19 disposals
Rd 5 2006: 107 SC points, 22 disposals

Average is 130 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Port Adelaide can’t stop him. Is normally (and recently) been tagged by Cassisi after others had failed: Matt Thomas/Chad Cornes (2009), Chad Cornes/Shaun Burgoyne (2008). Still racks up big possession totals and big scores. A quiet start to the year with 92 against Hawthorn in Round 1 followed by 100 in Round 2 against Richmond and then 109 in Round 3 against Carlton.

Ablett v. Brisbane

Rd 21 2011: 134 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 7 2011: 75 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 17 2010: 144 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 102 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 5 2009: 149 SC points, 42 disposals
Rd 22 2007: 99 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 142 SC points, 35 disposals

Average is 119 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Three scores over 140 against...