TooSerious

Welcome once again to the Best Buys.

This week I had a big spiel about Fyfe ready to go but as the week has gone on it is looking more and more likely that he will play. Whether that means people will trade him or not is a different matter, which again I will leave entirely up to your fine selves. What we do have however, is a brief breakdown on each of the Best Buys for this week, and the thumbs gallery for all your trading needs, and all just over the break.

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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

This week I have introduced a “Waiting List” section to the end of the article. This shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having...

Hi All,

Just a quick note from me to let you know the weekly brownlow posts are not far away.  This years machine will be smarter and more accurate than ever before, its just taking a           long               time                     to                     build...

From what has been gathered so far, there are some very interesting trends appearing that I didnt initially expect.  Turn over to have a sneak peak into whats coming...<!--more-->

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The first two charts below show the correlation between a combined SC &amp; DT score in both winning and losing teams.  No surprises here, at 250 SC/DT, the average is approximately 1 vote in a win, whilst only 0.3 votes in a loss:

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-win1.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5764" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-win1.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-loss1.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5765" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-loss1.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

Next up, we look at raw possessions.  In a win, 30 possessions averages out at 1 vote, whereas you need to hit 35 to average a full vote in a loss:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-win.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5766" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-win.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-loss.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5767" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-loss.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

But heres where it gets interesting.  Goals in a losing side mean little in the umpires eyes.  From the data collected so far (across > 3000 individual games) - 4 goals in a losing side and you wont be noticed.  You really have to kick six to be noticed consistently in a loss.  And whilst 4...

Welcome to this week’s SuperCoach SuperSubs review. We are starting to find a little bit about what coaches are doing with there subs, what type of players that are receiving the vest. This will benefit your team in knowing which players to put on the field, and which to have on the bench. A lot of injuries early in games this week to key players, resulting in early substitutions, and chance for some young guns to shine. Anyway, head over the break for the weeks review!

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Carlton vs Collingwood
Carlton
Green Vest: Nick Duigan
Red Vest: Kane Lucas

When? Early in the 4th quarter.
Why? Duigan was put as sub as this was his first game of footy for the year and Carlton want to ease him into the year understandably. Kane Lucas was given the red vest as he was starting to tire and lose his effectiveness.

Collingwood
Green Vest: Ben Sinclair
Red Vest: Ben Reid

When? Quarter time
Why? Ben Reid was subbed off injured at quarter time with a heavily strapped quad/hamstring. Ben Sinclair was put as sub because he is a short burst player, can come on and pick up the possisions in quick succession but he didn’t do that on Friday night finishing off with 4 possies.

Richmond vs Melbourne
Richmond
Green Vest: Adam Maric
Red Vest:  Tyrone Vickery

When?  Mid-way through the last.
Why? Vickery was subbed off because he wasn’t getting much of the ball, not taking the marks and kicking the goals which isn’t good when your playing Melbourne and winning by 10 goals… Maric was subbed on and racked a huge 2 SC points!

Melbourne
Green Vest: Lyndyn Dunn
Red Vest: Stefan Martin

When? Mid way through the third.
Why? The Dees still had a sniff at the time and to win they had to enforce some more run. Dunn was put as the sub as he can do this and also take a nice grab up forward. But he couldn’t win it for the dees but did well finishing with 23 SC and 2 goals.

Port Adelaide vs Sydney
Port Adelaide
Green...

Well, well, well – we’re on the improve! A score of 2112 this week, and 2 wins from 5 leagues. An over-all rank of 83453, and 46000 this week, finally sees the donor team getting some runs on the board. Join me over the break to see how it all panned out for us in round 3.
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We started by trading out Pfeiffer and Cripps, and bringing in Milera and Kennedy which also netted us around $50k for future trades. We then promptly put both boys on the field, with Kennedy pulling in 74 points against the Eagles, while Milera was a disappointment, with only 37 in the big win against the Doggies.

Our overall scoring looked like this:
1. Goddard DEF,102
2. Deledio DEF,108
3. Shaw DEF,98
4. Broughton DEF,110
5. Bugg DEF,92
6. Clarke DEF,85
7. Lake DEF,73
8. Ablett Captain 182 x 2 MID,364
9. Selwood MID,140
10. Pendlebury MID,62
11. Magner MID,61
12. Shiel MID,79
13. Smith MID,30
14. Cox RUC,101
15. Mumford RUC,108
16. Franklin FWD,118
17. Dangerfield FWD,99
18. Kennedy FWD,74
19. Porplyzia FWD,67
20. Fyfe FWD,34
21. Martin FWD,70
22. Milera FWD,37

While the bench was:
Backs: Morris (64) and Ellis (49)
Mids: McDonald (0) and Ledger (0)
Rucks: Giles (81) and Redden (69)
Fwds: Smith (79) and Dickson (0).

Our defence did really well, with everyone standing up, and our three premiums of Goddard, Deledio, and Broughton tonning up, while Shaw was just short on 98. Bugg, Clarke and Lake did really well, scoring 92, 85, and 75 respectively, although Brian Lake looks like he might be spending a few weeks on holidays... Our bench selection was also spot on, with Morris and Ellis being our lowest scorers.

The Mids are a worry, even though we doubled-up with Gazza’s 182, and got some nice points from Duckwoods 140, the fact that Pendles had his worst SC game in like ever hurt a bit, with his lowly 62. Magner, Sheil, and Smith were somewhat disappointing, with 61, 79, and 30 each,...

Bullets Bullet everywhere. So much pain this week. Just mayhem! From Pendles on Friday night, to Chappy and SJ on Sunday evening, it was a disaster area this week.

And its only round 3!!

Check out the full review over the break.

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Carlton vs Collingwood

Result: carlton by 60, 18.14.122 to 9.8.62

It was meant to be a big, tight, strongly contested game, but in reality just wound up a roflstomp. Carlton dominated early, Carrazzo doing an absolute number on Pendles, then, as the second quarter rolled round, so did the injuries. Reid going down with a quad, while Ball did himself an ACL essentially shut the door on any kind of comeback.

Judd and Murphy dominated for the Blues, with 35 and 39 disposals respectively, they amassed 134SC and 130SC. Also breaking 30 disposals was Scotland, bouncing back from previous weeks with a 127SC, and Gibbs, seeing a lot of it but just scoring 107SC.

Carrazzo, Robinson, Hampson and Waite all also managed to crack the ton.

Based on his compatriots, Yarran and Bower both disappointed with scores of 56SC and 51SC respectively.

Meanwhile on the Pies side, Sidebottom can hold his head high. 21 touches for a 103SC, and Swan can lay claim to their other ton- his 109SC coming off 31 touches.

But Pendles, 62SC off just 15 touches, Cloke, 62SC with just one goal, and Thomas, 22 touches for a 64SC can all hang their heads in shame!

Every one of them were beaten by the rookie-prices, Marty Clarke who was another shining light with his 85SC.

Heroes: Judd, Murphy, Scotland, Sidebottom, Clarke.
Villians: Pendles, Cloke, Thomas, Beams.

Richmond vs Melbourne

Result: Richmond by 59, 20.13.133 to 11.8.74

Kicking away early, it was assumed that Melbourne would continue their form for the year- but to their credit, they did fight back through the...

It happens every year. The great Football Gods descend from their fluffy, ivory towers to rain screaming terror down upon us little people of the ORFFL The Polish call itRze?Dooko?a. To us engrish speakers in the ORFFL, it's simply known as Carnage Round. The round where an injured knee, shoulder or misc., can leave you bereft of hope and your flag dreams in tatters. Join us over the break as we dissect the results of this weekend. Probably could've used a different verb there.



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TARWIN LOWER PIGS1335 DefPURNULULU BUNGLE RANGERS1076



The Tarwin Lower Pigs notched their first win of the season in stylez, marauding their way to a 259 point victory over the Bungle Rangers. I'll be honest, it didn't look good after Dependles most un-Dependlebury score of 62 on Friday night. Yet Kel rallied his troops together, and McIntosh (117), Carrots (123), NRoo (116), Bastinac (118) and Edwards (127) all responded with impressive performances. In point of fact, all 6 of the players listed above are averaging over 100 for the Pigs. Which is fairly rad.



The PBR on the other hand have some problems. After hitting the highest score in the ORFFL in R1, it's been all downhill at a steep incline. Tino has already expressed that he's looking to deal midseason for a FWD or two; tired of playing blokes OOP while carrying an injured Frenchman. The other issue contributing to these heavy losses is the sheer inexperience in the middle and up forward, it's boys against men out there. That being said, wood (avg. 123) and Ryder (avg. 130) are on target for big years.



<img alt='' width='480px'...

With two stonking FA Cup games this weekend it means there’ll be six League games which I’ll cover over the break…<!--more-->

Man Utd v Villa

Fergie’s fury was undoubtedly unleashed midweek as Utd were deservedly beaten by a euphoric Wigan who had never taken so much as a point off Utd before.

Rooney got it both barrels from SAF after a weak challenge in midfield and was also a bit lackadaisical closing down Maloney when he scored. He was then replaced with 30mins to go. Against Villa, if he’s not dropped, then I expect to see him with a rocket up his arse.

Nani came back into the fold and might see some more game-time here. While Scholes will play after being rested, Villa have drawn their last two games and aren’t quite out of strife yet. SAF’s unbeaten in his last 30 games against former players. He’s won  52 out of 70. I don’t really expect McLeish to improve the record of the young pretenders.

Norwich v Man City

The title race isn’t quite over yet after Utd’s defeat at Wigan. At the same time, City were taking four off WBA. Importantly, Silva, Nasri, Aguero and Tevez all showed some form.

Yaya Toure is still a doubt while Balotelli is suspended which could afford Tevez another start.

Norwich have lost only one of their last seven home games (against Man Utd) and remain in the top half of the table after an excellent win at WHL.

Mancini has bizarrely claimed that five points is too much ground to make up on Utd. It’s hard to see where he’s coming from with comments like these. Maybe it’s mind games? Frankly, these are the words that I can envisage SAF using as the stick to gleefully hit him with.

Sunderland v Wolves

Sunderland have won two of their last nine. It’s not unusual to see MON’s teams get off to a storming start before slowing right down as his trusted men start running on fumes.

Sess might be faring better than most as he had a mini-break with his three match suspension. He may also benefit from the return of...

Ah, Round 3. In the lesser game, they say it is the most important of all rounds. What, however, does it mean in the Game of Games, the ORFFL? A lot, I feel. Put it this way, in an 18 team competition with only 8 finalists, I would not like to be sitting 0-3 after this round. By the Grace of the Gods, that won't be me, but join us over the break to see what I think of your club and it's fantasy football chance this week. NOW WITH SCORE UPDATES



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<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/5571/tlpvspbr.jpg[/img];



TARWIN LOWER PIGS730/9 VSPURNULULU BUNGLE RANGERS 839/12



To put it simply, Kel and his Black Sabbath inspired 'War Pigs' need a victory this weekend. I think Kel's been unlucky thus far not to snatch a win, yet sadly the ORFFL pays no heed to such vagaries. It's brutal results that count. And with Embley and Smith missing this week from Tarwin Lower's engine room, it'll be left to old Dependles to shovel coal with extraordinary speed and proficiency.



The PBR on the other hand are kind of looking like a 2010-11 Melbourne. Capable of soaring highs, and Gary Bussey-esque lows. That's youth for ya! If I could offer one piece of advice: Put Harper on the field! Either that, or trade him to me midseason. Would love to have if you do not want.



<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/3585/wowovspp.jpg[/img];



WOY WOY WIZARDS730/9 VSPOOWONG POTOROOS 687/8



This week we find the match of the round again featuring the men of Poowong. Is it simply our love of the Little Bald Master that makes Potoroos matches so watchable? No, as it turns out. While we may root for David, it's Goliath that brings in the spectators, and by that I mean, Big Tommahawkins. An absolute beast of a man.



Not to be out done, the Wizard's...

Holy spacecows, tonights game looks like its going to be an absolute cracker!

Swan + Pendles v Judd and Murphy (and well, the rest of em might do something maybe, from what I can glean from the media about the game).

No matter how its been hyped though, it should be an absolute ripper! Honestly dont think the Blues should go into the game as favourite, But they should give it a ripping good crack.

Carn the not Pies!!

Dont forget, to join us in the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10251123&process=live">Live Chat[/url] tonight.

Round 2 recap: Ablett and Pendlebury were my second and third choices last week (behind a disappointing Dal Santo). Both of these players did not disappoint with solid scores of 143 and 127 respectively. My second choice for the captain’s loophole was even better as Judd smashed out a 150. I was also happy with my smoky pick of Harvey who managed 137 against the Giants. It was a slightly disappointing end total considering he was already in the 90’s at half time.

Round 2 regrets: Last week I thought Dal Santo would have a huge game against the Suns but he disappointed with 112. For the loophole, I thought Rockliff would fire up but he crashed out big time with only 61 (his first sub 100 score since Round 12 last year).

Hopefully, my Round 3 picks will be a little more successful. The statistics seem to indicate a clear choice …

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Ablett v. Essendon

Rd 6 2011: 95 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2010: 97 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 127 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 10 2009: 150 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 2 2008: 148 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 14 2007: 133 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 11 2006: 156 SC points, 19 disposals

Average is 129 SC points with 31 disposals.

Note: Huge numbers against Essendon. Low score of 95 last year when he was tagged by Hocking and Essendon smashed the Suns 197 to 58. Considering the losing margin, not a bad effort. The other sub 100 game was in Round 12 2010 when he picked up a lot of disposals in garbage time in a 154 to 83 victory after being tagged by Welsh. Played head to head with Stanton in 2009 resulting in 150 SC points and was not tagged in 2008 resulting in 148 SC points. Had a great Round 1 with 139 SC points from 42 disposals with 2 goals followed by 143 SC points last Round.

Pendlebury v. Carlton

Rd 17 2011: 145 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 3 2011: 94 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 139 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 115 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 131 SC...