TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - North Melbourne

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

 

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NorthMelb_SC2012.jpg"><img class="alignleft wp-image-5234" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NorthMelb_SC2012.jpg" alt="" width="485" height="500" />[/url]

2012 List Analysis:

North Melbourne are a very well balanced list, and it is no surprise that their coach is expecting them to make the 8 this season.  They have a decent draw, a maturity about their list that has raised a level of expectancy, and the destiny truly is in their hands in 2012.

However, again I see the players here, and I have to admit, I think that they are Premiers Lite.   Just like their off-field setup with Eugene Arocca appears to try to punch outside their weight division, so is their on-field team.   To feature in September, the Kangaroos need to do something about so many underachieving players in the LowerMid section.  Improve enough of them into either Midprice or UpperMid, and we could be seeing a team that is able to beat Top 4 opponents on occasion.

North Melbournes list rating is 37 and they have a depth of 17.   This places them 12th for their best 22, and 14th in terms of depth.   Yet many pundits are placing North close to the 8.   It is clear that the young players should improve, building both depth and capacity.  Four players making the small step from LowerMid to Midprice would be enough for their list development to rival Essendons.   That should be the target for 2012.
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Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Richmond

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Richmond_SC2012.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-5232" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Richmond_SC2012.jpg" alt="" width="484" height="605" />[/url]

2012 List Analysis:

Richmonds list is better than people give credit for.  They have milked good draft selections from a range of drafts, and though they missed Franklin and Roughead, they did get the midfield selections spot on (well Tambling excluded).  They have good players on a range of lines, and just need a bit more polish to add to a natural aggression to actually challenge for a finals berth.

If they can hold it together through a baptism of fire early (basically playing the entire 2011 top 8 in the first 10 games) and turn 5-5 or even 4-6, they can get to the finals action they have been craving for so long.  Im not convinced they will quite make it, due to the fixture, and think 9th is as good as they can ask for this year, with 10-12 more realistic.   That said, in a team on the breakout, realistic goes out the window.

Richmonds list rating is 42 and they have a depth of 19   This places them 7th for their best 22, and 13th in terms of depth.   So its clear that Richmond have the cattle to really shake things up this season, and the canny selections of Ellis and Morris should improve their defensive depth.   They do appear to require a third tall defender, and a third tall forward, and are grooming young players in the roles.   At end of 2012 I can see them having played better than sides that finish above them and in the 8, but due to the difficult fixturing at the start of the season, they will once again be spectators in September.

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So, you were expecting a review for this weekends action, yes. There will be one, its in the works, but not tonight.

Tonight, I want to remind everyone of our TS leagues, so if you have any empty leagues, youve got no excuse *not* to click the more button and figure out how to fill them out!!

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In these parts, we tend to run with user-generated leagues. We have a lot of players here at TS, and as I joked with Impromptu, with 6000 signups thus far, I reckon we all have a rough 1 in 6000 chance of winning this thing. But what it also means, is that no matter which way we cut the leagues, youre going to be fronting up to some ridiculously good competition.

One thing were doing differently this year however, is setting up DreamTeam leagues - I mean, were all fantasy nuts, so lets hit both the comps right!?

So if youre interested in getting involved in a Supercoach league, head over to the <a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=1277.0#postid-23704">SC Leagues thread[/url] and make it happen!

Alternatively, if youre after DreamTeam, check out the <a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=1278.0#postid-23705">DT Leagues thread[/url]

Not quite as prolific, but with 11 registered leagues, theres certainly a fair bit of interest- so as I said, get it there!

If youre interested in adding a little "spice" to your experience, perhaps the <a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=1281.0#postid-23711">Cash League thread[/url] is for you? Pokersnaz has been setting up a fairly epic league over there, spanning 5 different leagues, so check it out!

So yeah, theres plenty of ways to get involved in a local TS league, and I assure you, the competition will be well-spirited and fierce!
Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Greater Western Sydney

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GWS_SC20122.jpg"><img class="alignleft wp-image-5371" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GWS_SC20122.jpg" alt="" width="451" height="589" />[/url]

2012 List Analysis:

Welcome to the AFL GWS.   It will be a warm welcome from most teams, who will enjoy the opportunity to munch on percentage, just as much as Kevin Sheedy and Mark Williams will be pumping depth into a great bunch of kids.   They might win a game, if lucky they will get two.  Im almost certain that they will take home the wooden spoon, but with that comes the first draft pick, and another drink at the draft table, particularly potent when they can use the PSD to their advantage.

In terms of the list, well its not just shallow, its extremely poor as well.  Theres just nothing for anyone to be really excited about in terms of dominating the year, like Ablett in 2011 at Gold Coast.   Though it is going to get ugly often, I can see a bit more potential in the older mids of GWS providing depth, and the forward line not being hopeless.   Therefore I actually think GWS have built the list more intelligently than GC, learning all the lessons.

The GWS list rating is 11 and a depth of 7.  This ranks their list and depth as the worst.   So the aim this year is to put the draftees into the midprice ranks - every single one of them.  Like Gold Coast, these kids just need time and good development coaches.  Im sure they will be a power soon, but certainly not in 2012.  In fact the Supercoach prospects to me look pretty ordinary even for their better players.  The kids will be rested.  They are a big unknown in terms of their policy to rest their kids.

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Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Melbourne

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Melbourne_SC2012.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-5235" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Melbourne_SC2012.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="533" />[/url]

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2012 List Analysis:

Melbourne is tough to rate.  They have a new coach and a huge amount of players who under Bailey routinely under-performed.

Neeld wont settle for anything less than the best week-in, week-out.  It might be a tough line to start with, but I can see it bearing fruit later in the year, when the draw really opens up for Melbourne.

As they move players from the UpperMid to Premium, thats where the team can move up the ladder.   There are plenty of players who can step up there, but no one as yet as shown they are capable of the consistency required.

Melbournes list rating is 40 and they have a depth of 24.   This places them 11th for their best 22, but 3rd in terms of depth.   Therefore the key is either sifting out the ones at the bottom, or getting some massive list improvements happening.  I can see the bonus for Melbourne is when the year gets longer, other teams will get hurt a lot more than they will.  They should storm home.
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It’s FA Cup time again which means a decimated weekend EPL program. There are still four games on though with the pick of them Wolves v Man United, which could take United four points clear at the top. Join me over the break for all the weekends league games…

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Wolves v Man United

Wolves – like Blackburn Rovers who beat them last week – are fighting for Premier League survival on the backdrop of fan protests. Supporters believe that the Wolves hierarchy are culpable of mismanagement.

It wasn’t so much the sacking of McCarthy as the timing of the sacking. The belief that it’s come too late in the day. McCarthy should have been sacked months ago.

Terry Connor’s record now reads W0 D1 L2 with no indications of it improving as the Man United juggernaut rolls into town.

United went top last week for the first time since October as they easily took care of a disappointing West Brom. Man City went down at Swansea to relinquish their lead at the top. It was all too much for one City fan who in his own words said he wasn’t <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCRDfgSnJ7A&amp;feature=related">crying[/url]: “I wasn’t crying. There may have been a tear in my eye but I was just exhausted and frustrated”.

Listen pal, if that’s your reaction after a defeat ten weeks from the end of the season, you should try being an Ayr United fan. Youd be crying more  than  Halle Berry at an Oscars acceptance speech.

Rooney and Jones are doubts, while there’s question marks over Nani and Valencia. O’Hara is doubtful for Wolves.

Newcastle v Norwich

Newcastle were unlucky to lose to a 95th minute goal at Arsenal last week and they’ve now not won in four league games. They’ve also let in more league goals in 2012 than every other team apart from Wolves and Blackburn.

Cisse was sacrificed for the Arsenal game but should come back in, although Tiote and possibly Taylor could miss with injury.

Although Norwich have won three of their last...
Supercoach Season Preview 2012 - Hawthorn

2012 Supercoach Player Ranking Chart

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Hawthorn_SC2012.jpg"><img class="alignleft wp-image-5236" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Hawthorn_SC2012.jpg" alt="" width="448" height="480" />[/url]

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2012 List Analysis:

Hawthorns injury issues last year comes with a lovely little swing in the tail.  In the space of a season, they were able to create the most enviable depth in the competition.   Players like Savage, Smith and Breust really added verve and dash to a side that didnt need it, but appreciated it anyway.   Last season they werent able to crack the top 2 teams, but they pretty much smashed the rest of the comp.   This year its all about building up to winning those massive games against the Pies and Cats.

The only question mark is in the ruck.   And the injury to Bailey hurts at that weak underbelly.  Missing out on Jolly in the drafting at start of 2010 season is proving to be highly costly.

Hawthorns rating is 50 and a depth of 27.   This is number one in both areas.  And thats why Hawthorn have every right to be flag favourites as the year begins.  Each other team, even the Cats and Pies are playing list catchup.<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" />

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Ok so theres a lot of debate about the Top 50 from Mike Sheahan in the Herald Sun.

Today Im putting a list over the jump which compares his personal preference listing with the points per game top 50 from Champion Data from Season 2011.

I hate putting myself in the camp of Ted Hopkins after his 1970 Grand Final performances, but certainly the work that he has done for the game in terms of statistical analysis has redeemed him somewhat.

Theres no doubt I am fully in favour of the Champion Data Top 50, and think this should be given far more preference than the arbitrary list of an admittedly experienced journalist, carrying all his favourites in his satchel.

That said, I also realise that the CD Top 50 is more a reflection of past performance than the forward looking Sheahan Top 50.   Anyone think the Sheahan 50 though is more backward looking with some of the old favourites in there?

I shudder to think what Bruce McAvaneys top 5 is, but heres my go:

1 CYRIL "hes a little bit special" Rioli
2 Lance Buddy Franklin
3 Chris Judd
4 Adam Goodes
5 Graham Stiffy Johncock

Full Top 50s over the break!  Would love to hear some considered commentary, not as much cheer squad writeups as so often clog opinion sites.

<!--more-->Champion Datas Top 50

1 Scott Pendlebury
2 Gary Ablett
3 Dean Cox
4 Dane Swan
5 Nick Dal Santo
6 Marc Murphy
7 Chris Judd
8 Matthew Boyd
9 Matt Priddis
10 Tom Rockliff
11 Sam Mitchell
12 Todd Goldstein
13 Shane Mumford
14 Andrew Swallow
15 Joel Selwood
16 Lance Franklin
17 Aaron Sandilands**
18 Scott Thompson
19 Dale Thomas
20 Ryan Griffen
21 Adam Goodes
22 Nathan FYFE
23 Brendon Goddard
24 Steve Johnson
25 David Mundy**
26 Luke Hodge
27 Jobe Watson
28 Matthew Pavlich
29 Heath Scotland
30 Brett Deledio
31 Daniel Wells
32 Bryce Gibbs
33 Jack Redden
34 Ryan OKeefe
35 Matthew Leuenberger
36 Jarryd Roughead**
37 Ben McEvoy
38 Jimmy Bartel
39 Paul Chapman
40 Brent Harvey
41 Jonathon...
Alright, I wont be around tomorrow, so Ill open the live chat in this thread!

In the meantime though, check out the teams for this week! Its our last chance to get a good look at these blokes, so let us know who youre watching!

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NAB Cup Grand Final


Adelaide v West Coast


Saturday, March 17


AAMI Stadium, 7.10pm ACST





ADELAIDE


B:
G. Johncock, D. Talia, A. Otten


HB: M. Doughty, S. Shaw, B. Smith


C: B. Reilly,&nbsp; S. Thompson,&nbsp; D. Mackay


HF: B. Vince, K. Tippett, J. Petrenko


F: J. Porplyzia, T. Walker, M. Wright


Foll: S. Jacobs, P. Dangerfield, N. van Berlo


Int: R. Sloane, S. McKernan, I. Callinan, R. Henderson


Emerg: M. Jaensch, T. Lynch, S. Kerridge





WEST COAST


B:
S. Butler, D. Glass, S. Hurn&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


HB: B. Waters, W. Schofield, A. Selwood&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


C: M. Rosa, M. Priddis, A Embley&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


HF: C. Masten, J. Darling, M. Nicoski&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


F: J. Hill, D. Cox, A. Hams&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


Foll: N. Naitanui, S. Selwood, D. Kerr&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


Int: E. Mackenzie, A. Gaff, P. McGinnity, S. Lycett&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;


Emerg: K. Stevens, L. Shuey, G. Weedon





Collingwood v St Kilda


Friday, March 16


Visy Park, 4pm AEDT






COLLINGWOOD


1. Alex Fasolo, 5. Nick Maxwell, 6. Tyson Goldsack, 8. Heritier OBrien, 9. Martin Clarke, 10. Scott Pendlebury, 11. Jarryd Blair, 12. Luke Ball, 13. Dale Thomas, 14. Luke Rounds, 18. Darren Jolly, 20. Ben Reid, 22. Steele Sidebottom, 23. Lachlan Keeffe, 25. Tom Young, 28. Ben Sinclair, 29. Jonathan Ceglar, 32. Chris Dawes, 33. Jackson Paine, 34. Alan Toovey, 35. Jamie Elliott, 36. Dane Swan, 38. Peter Yagmoor, 39. Heath Shaw,...
Wow, its the GF already! How time flies when youre watching the reserves running around chasing the leather, and subsequently kicking it into peoples heads. Well, enough with the chit-chat, on with the raw numbers I hears the Kash man say. Comin atcha!

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<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">SKT
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1816
25
 72.6




<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">EDDIE V
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1792
23
77.9




<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">P_L
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1728
24
72




<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">WALESY
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1653
 23
71.9




<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">GUMBY
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1629
 22
 74




<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">BGT2110
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1590
 25
 63.6




<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td valign="middle" width="33%">THOKASH
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Players Used
<td valign="middle" width="33%">Player Avg.



1572
 22...