TooSerious

JPKs article, <a href="http://tooserious.net/2012-premium-midfield-analysis-by-the-graphs">looking at midfielders[/url], certainly raised a few good points, particularly when it comes to looking at past form when attempting to predict future form. The biggest point raised was the use of the 3 game average against a team, and how for players who have recently broken out, that its not the best indicator as its including scores from before they became premium.

Well, for this article, we have that to consider, but also the fact that CD changed with rules around scoring for hitouts last year (along with natural progression for some of the younger guys), seeing an unprecedented number of rucking options available.

So lets see what the numbers, and JPK say.

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Ok, so after some conjecture about the midfield analysis, the Premium Ruck analysis should create even more debate. Only guys who had a 100+ average last year have been looked at, which means there’s a lot of quality rucks with a slightly lesser average who I haven’t looked at yet. Maybe I’ll get around to it later, but for now, dig your teeth into these big fellas!

Dean Cox

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Cox.png">

Ya Mum’s not going to be too happy to see Big Coxy plummeting by $200k by round 13. I can’t believe it myself, but it looks like cox is going to have a shocking start to the season, and be ripe for a possible upgrade when Sandi’s pinky-toe gives out just after the byes! I’d also bet that having Nicnat munching on the ruck points at The Eagles, Big Cox is not likely to be elite by the end of the season. Looking at just last years numbers brings up a different graph, making Coxy look light a great starting pick, however he still hits the same lowpoint at the same time of season, and ends 2012 with the same predicted price.

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px"...

Those of you who were here last year will fondly remember <a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">The Ticker[/url]

Those of you who werent however, might need a quick refresher over the break!

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">The Ticker[/url], accessed through the top bar there, while being a giant rainbow mess, is actually a method to follow which teams are leaking points, and to what position they are leaking them to.

It also allows you to track your teams byes (provided your team is entered into TS - Im still working on the upload, but if youve manually entered your team in, youll find it loaded into the ticker automatically.)

Simply select which team youd like displayed on the ticker, and it will show you exactly who you have playing against which teams!

What the ticker offers, is a visual representation of when players will be running into hot-streaks (which tend to co-inside with a rise in coinage), or when they will be heading to a cold-patch (and the loss in value that comes with that.)

Basically, its another tool at your disposal to maximise both points output (when selecting your rookies), and also value.

So check it out and enjoy.

So, were getting into the home stretch with the NAB just a few weeks away, lets whip around the grounds again for another series of training reports.

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Adelaide

19/1

Luke Thompson and Will Young were missing.,
The session revolved around a series of competitive drills, followed by a mini-game.
Sam Kerridge didnt get involved in the mini game, however, was impressive through the drills.
Mitch Grigg was very good in the mini-game, playing off the half-back line.
As with every preseason, a lot of the boys are looking bigger, of note though was Rory Sloane.
Tex is massive, over 100kgs.

20/1

Jacobs and Tippett were doing a lot of ruckwork, which makes me think the TipRat will be playing the Leigh Brown role

this year.
Grigg and Johnston was training with the backs (Otten, Johncock, Reilly)
VB won the "5 minute run", chalking up 3.3 laps (just over 1500), while most of the crows made it to 3 laps.
According to twitter Andy Otten "jagged" his "shit knee", "but all good just irritated it a little".

25/1

It was noted again, the contested nature of the training session. Looks like the Crows will be focused on winning the

hard ball- which as we know, is worth that little bit more.
Porplyzia was move well when leading for the ball.
Looks like the Crows might be aiming to enter into the forward 50, with a tall and small leading each time, with the

forward entry drill groups consisting of McKenzie and Porplyzia in one group and Tippett/Petrenko in the other
Kerridge is running hard, and played through the mini-game this session.
Luke Thompson was back in the main group.

30/1

Defender Ben Rutten will have foot surgery this week to relieve plantar fasciitis. Rutten, 28, is expected to return to

full training in six weeks.

2/2

"They all beat the crap out of each other then cried about it on twitter"
Thats one way I read it put. Very succinct. Another is that Walker and Jaensch came to blows during...

We are past half way of our regular season now, having played 6 of our 11 games. Across all 3 leagues, there are still 4 undefeated teams, and 2 that are yet to taste success. Both HEAVER and karlos are both undefeated in Premier League, and Fez and bgt2110 are both undefeated in Division 1, while there are no undefeated teams in Division 2. There is one team yet to find a win in Division 2 and that is coached by Don_Cottagers, with the only other winless team being Revs in Division 1.

Being more than half way through, its probably a good time to look at the way the finals are shaping up. 6 teams make the finals (with the top 2 getting a first round bye). Here is how the top 6 look for each league atm... Premier: <a title="Team HEAVER! (Dave Tong)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=13&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">Team HEAVER![/url], <a title="Kings of Karlos (Sean Minetti, Leigh Walles)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=10&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">Kings of Karlos[/url], <a title="Ruddys Cavaliers (Peter Rudd)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=20&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">Ruddys Cavaliers[/url], <a title="Run TMC (Owen Beebe)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=19&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">Run TMC[/url], <a title="Wade Machine (Daniel Laengst)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=15&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">Wade Machine[/url], <a title="Jasmines Mob (Jasmine Johnson)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=5&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">Jasmines Mob[/url]. Div1: <a title="The Jug-O-Naughts (Kristian Collins)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=10094&amp;teamId=2&amp;seasonId=2012" target="_top">The Jug-O-Naughts[/url], <a title="Canuck Steelers (Richard Chambers, Nick Luya)"...

The auto-close hit again, and we were so, so close to the end. I'll chuck a complete 2012 fixture in here when I finish it.



Oh wait, I did finish it! It's over the break.



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<pre>Round 1 (Geographo-political Rivaly Round)</pre>

JASON (POOWONG POTOROOS) vs KEL (TARWIN LOWER PIGS)



FEZ (BONNIE DOON BANDITS) vs SCSS (MERTON MEERKATS)



EDDIEV (WARBURTON WANDERERS) vs WALESY (MOUNT BUGGERY DISAPPOINTMENTS)



TINO (PURNULULU BUNGLE RANGERS) vs GUMBY (WOY WOY WIZARDS)



BB (QUEENSTOWN QUOLLS) vs HORNSY (SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES)



LUCAS (HUMPTY DOO HAMMERHEADS) vs JOHNSON (MILIKAPATI SNAKES)



P_L (POPANYINNING PYRITE) vs BEARFLY (COULTA COULDABEENS)



DOOBS (GLENROWAN GUNSLINGERS) vs SKT (TORRUMBARRY THUNDA)



BGT2110 (JIMCUMBILLY JACKRABBITS) vs THOKASH (MALLACOOTA MAGICIANS)





<pre>Round 2</pre>

KEL (TARWIN LOWER PIGS) vs EDDIEV (WARBURTON WANDERERS)



JASON (POOWONG POTOROOS) vs LUCAS (HUMPTY DOO HAMMERHEADS)



THOKASH (Mallacoota Magicians) vs FEZ (BONNIE DOON BANDITS)



SCSS (MERTON MEERKATS) vs TINO (PURNULULU BUNGLE RANGERS)



BEARFLY (COULTA COULDABEENS) vs BB (QUEENSTOWN QUOLLS)



HORNSY (SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES) vs JOHNSON (MILIKAPATI SNAKES)



BGT2110 (JIMCUMBILLY JACKRABBITS) vs DOOBS (GLENROWAN GUNSLINGERS)



SKT (TORRUMBARRY THUNDA) vs GUMBY (WOY WOY WIZARDS)



P_L (POPANYINNING PYRITE) vs WALESY (MOUNT BUGGERY DISAPPOINTMENTS)





<pre>Round 3</pre>

KEL (TARWIN LOWER PIGS) vs TINO (PURNULULU BUNGLE RANGERS)



GUMBY (WOY WOY WIZARDS) vs JASON (POOWONG POTOROOS)



FEZ (BONNIE DOON BANDITS) vs BGT2110 (JIMCUMBILLY JACKRABBITS)



SCSS (MERTON MEERKATS) vs BB (QUEENSTOWN QUOLLS)



EDDIEV (WARBURTON WANDERERS) vs LUCAS (HUMPTY DOO HAMMERHEADS)



BEARFLY (COULTA COULDABEENS) vs JOHNSON (MILIKAPATI SNAKES)



HORNSY (SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES) vs P_L (POPANYINNING PYRITE)



WALESY (MOUNT BUGGERY...

This tidy piece of analysis has been brought to us by our very own JPK - so lets give him a big thank you as there is seriously a lot in here!!

So lets jump straight into it!

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I’ve used the newly updated stats page, and plugged in the averages that each of last years premium midfielders has against their respective opponents (and their yearly average for the games against GWS) to come up with the following collection of predicted salary graphs. There are some players that look even more tempting now, while others clearly look like they should be avoided in the starting lineups! Only pure mids have been analysed, as MPPs will almost certainly be selected in their non-mid position.

Scott Pendlebury

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Pendlebury.png">

Makes for a great keeper from day one, so should be on everyone’s radar. His price never really plummets, however if you choose to stay away from the $700k at the start you should be able to pick him up after the bye for $100k less.

Gary Ablett

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Ablett.png">

Aside from that quick little drop up until R5, GAJ looks pretty good as a starting premium. If you choose to save a few bucks and burn a trade around R5 you can be safe in the knowledge that he’ll likely never get much cheaper for the rest of the season.

Dane Swan

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Swan.png">

Swan starts the year strongly, and may actually go up in value, before slowly coming down $75k just in time for the bye. After that Swanny is a bit of a rollercoaster, but it should be a good ride!

Nick dal Santo

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px"...

Just quickly, Ive just rolled the donor list over to the 2012 season.

Which means that if youve donated this year (or late last year), youll find yourself with access to all the donor features.

If you donated last year, but not yet this year, youll still have access to the donor forum for a bit, but the other donor features around the site will be gone.

And if you havent donated, what are you waiting for!!

Alright guys, the stats pages have been rolled over into the 2012 season. So its at this time that Id like to once again, do a quick run through of the functionality that we have here at TS.

Well, at least give you a walk through of the Stats and Players features!

Join us over the break to read more. (Heck, even if you think you know every in and out of this place, youll still probably find the recap refreshing. And hey, theres important info at the bottom of the post.)

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So, lets take a look at the stats page, actually, first, well look at the Filter.

<div style="float:left"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/TS_Filter.png" width="470px">

Now, when people first come here, I tend to get a few questions on the Filter - but its quite simpler than it looks. Just remember, that each field you click on will restrict the players that come back! So if you click on CAR, youll get Carlton players. If you then click on "DEF", youll get Carlton defenders. Then if you remove the Carlton filter by clicking on All, it will just show defenders.

On trick, if youre quick enough, is to click on multiple filters at once. This will apply all the filters at once and make it faster for you to get to the data you want!

And speaking of said data, lets take a look.

<div style="float:left"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/TS_StatsResults.png" width="470px">

From this screen, you have access to a lot of statistic, more than you might imagine. However, the key statistic that youll need for your day-to-day fantasy play are there in front of you. The most important of these throughout the year are the Break Even column and the Salary Movement fields (Next Round and Movement 3 Rounds). These fields inform you what a player needs to score next week in order to *not* lose any salary, however, it also shows you the effect on salary a player will get next week if they score to their average again. Essential...

Yes, yesterday...  I hope that people either knew about the lockout being so early in the day on a Thursday, or took notice of <a href="http://tooserious.net/wednesday-night-nbl/comment-page-1#comment-115786" target="_blank">my comment[/url] I posted yesterday morning, and set their team up for Round 18. I know I DIDNT . Silly, but its true...   anyway, Ive ended up with Kazzough as my starting C this week haha; but luckily, as I focused on in <a href="http://tooserious.net/wednesday-night-nbl" target="_blank">last weeks thread[/url], the Crocs have another double gameweek this week, so my captain choice of Mims is still relevant.

We had a blockbuster to kick off this round, as Perth travelled over to NZ with both teams going into the game on the same amount of wins and losses at the top of the ladder, and a couple of games clear of the 3rd placed Crocs. NZ won it in a tight one, 83 to 77 with a great team effort as 5 players scored in double figures, including DDs to Vukona (11p, 10r, 2s) and Jackson (15p, 10a, 4r, 2s). CJ Bruton should also get a mention for racking up 14 pts in less than 10 min. For the Cats, Lisch (20p, 5r), Redhage (15p) and Neville (14p, 6r) all continued their great recent form; however they could not get enough help this time - especially from 6th man Jesse Wagstaff, who has been in excellent form of late and was touted as the one that would get the W for Perth in the papers over here, but could only manage 2 pts and 5 boards to total Negative 12 fantasy points! (in my starting lineup )

We have 4 more games this round, with 2 tonight and 1 on each of the weekend days. As mentioned above, the Crocs still have 2 games to play this week, and Sydney dont play. Now, head over the break for some details about our fantasy league::::::::

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Round 17 results:
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Inappropriate - indecent even. Thats how it feels to be posting EPL in this most momentous of weeks on the TS website.

Its been a truly beautiful couple of days with the opening of SuperCoach and if truth be told, I feel a bit like Kyle Sandilands would at a Germaine Greer book launch.

However, I did promise a post a couple of weeks ago on how the top three might go until the end of the season, so join me over the break for more.

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Spurs

Redknapp has said that if you don’t enjoy watching his Spurs team play then you shouldn’t be watching football. It’s hard to argue with that theory, Spurs have been imperious at times this year.

They have an outstanding starting XI that basically picks itself (apart from CB where King plays when he’s fit). Parker may not be fantasy relevant, but for me, he is the man that has completed this team. Spurs reliance on his ball-winning and consequent passing has meant that Modric and Co can play with more freedom.

With Lennon, Modric, Adebayor, VDV and especially Bale in the ranks it’s a fearsome attacking line-up. Bale often gets double-marked and sometimes triple-marked which also leaves room for the others to weave their magic.

The downside for Spurs is their lack of depth, Defoe (when fit) has shown that he’s an able deputy for the injury-prone VDV but if they find the likes of Adebayor, Bale and Parker out they will struggle. Man Utd and Arsenal for instance, have had much bigger injury problems and cope, Spurs I’m not sure will manage that.

At the moment they’re only Defoe’s (relatively) big toe away from victory at Man City and 1pt clear of them, however they’re not and they’ve now got 5pts to make up on the leaders. I wish them all the best but fear there’s as much a chance of them making that gap up as there is of Redknapp receiving a tax rebate. I’ll gladly be proved wrong. Third place!

Man United

There’s been some tough moments this year for United. That 6-1 mauling at Old...