TooSerious

Hi all,

I dont have time for much discussion here.  Only to say that the whips are cracking for overall, and though many tipped Impromptu for a slide, he still has a few trades up the sleeve, and now the "not so secret" weapon in Joel Selwood.

I dont hold any knowledge of where hes thinking with this weeks captain selection, but he could do worse than give the Duckwood the job.

Its not easy to pull points back on the leader, but there are some past champs (Lings Bandits top 20, Buster Gonad just sneaking closer into the top 120) who are looming large for a late run.

Utilising the great work of Kel and TiB in the forums, Im going to piece together some nice stuff over the break and try to make sense of it all.

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Kel put together a good little guide to the top 20 team selections last week in the forums.   It was and is a bit hidden, but I located it, read it, and will give his summary...thanks for the great detective work mate!   And yes, I know its a week late so it may have been updated slightly with trades made last week.   But anyway it is a worthwhile guide to look at - because lets be honest how many top 20 teams had trades to burn last weekend?

Top 20 Teams - Forwards:
<a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&amp;t=968.0">http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&amp;t=968.0[/url]

19 - Pavlich, Franklin 18 - Petrie 17 - Goodes 16 - N Riewoldt 14 - OKeefe 13 - Chapman 9 - Harvey 8 - Sylvia 7 - Johnson 4 - J Riewoldt, Fyfe 2 - Cloke, Higgins 1 - Brennan, Zaharakis, Lecras, Yarran, Rioli.

Points to note: Franklin bye this week.   Goodes + OKeefe + possible J Roo in Round 19.   No one has JB.   Enough have Sylvia and Chapman to make the options interesting.   Cloke looming as a very dangerous POD.   Harvey if his injury curtails him, thats going to hurt the owners big time.   I think its interesting heaps more have Chapman than Johnson.   MPP is an interesting...

Ablett and Harvey have both been named but surely will have question marks.

The big ins and outs are as follows:

INS: Smith, Toy, Watson (CAR), Selwood
OUTS: Callinan, Hibberd, Matera, Buckley
Extended Bench: N/A

Teams are over the break.
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Adelaide v Essendon
AS &#8211; Fri Jul 15, 8:10pm
Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Andy Otten
HB: Matthew Jaensch, Daniel Talia, Michael Doughty
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Richard Tambling
HF: Patrick Dangerfield, Ricky Henderson, Rory Sloane
F: Jared Petrenko, Kurt Tippett, Matthew Wright
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Bernie Vince, Nathan van Berlo
I/C: Brent Reilly, Brad Moran, Brad Symes, Brodie Smith
Emg: Ivan Maric, Myke Cook, Jack Gunston
In: Ricky Henderson, Brodie Smith
Out: Richard Douglas (Ankle), Ian Callinan (Hamstring)
Essendon
B: Ricky Dyson, Tayte Pears, Kyle Hardingham
HB: Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hurley, Dyson Heppell
C: Mark McVeigh, Brent Stanton, Brent Prismall
HF: Leroy Jetta, David Hille, David Zaharakis
F: Travis Colyer, Stewart Crameri, Angus Monfries
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Jake Melksham, Heath Hocking
I/C: Henry Slattery, Alwyn Davey, Kyle Reimers, Ben Howlett
Emg: Cale Hooker, Tom Bellchambers, Michael Ross
In: Henry Slattery
Out: Michael Hibberd (Soreness)
Richmond v Gold Coast Suns
CAZ &#8211; Sat Jul 16, 2:10pm
Richmond
B: Chris Newman, Alex Rance, Luke McGuane
HB: Brett Deledio, Will Thursfield, Bachar Houli
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Robin Nahas, Ben Griffiths, Bradley Helbig
F: Tyrone Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Jake King
Foll: Andrew Browne, Reece Conca, Nathan Foley
I/C: Daniel Jackson, Matthew White, Shaun Grigg, Jake Batchelor
Emg: Shane Tuck, Mitch Morton, Mitchell Farmer...

The big question this week is will Ablett play or not? And, if he does play, how effective will he be? The numbers below reveal that Ablett is the best option but given the number of question marks hanging over his head, is he worth the risk?

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Ablett v. Richmond

Rd 2 2009: 139 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 164 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 133 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 170 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals

Average is 152 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Note: After a huge average of 172 against Sydney (last week), Ablett again delivers with a 152 average against he Tigers. No scores below 133. However, everyone will no doubt be worried about the extent of his knee injury. Remember that in his seven games since Round 8 (not including last week), he averaged 150.

Cox v. St Kilda

Rd 9 2010: 107 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals, 34 hitouts
Rd 15 2009: 62 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals, 14 hitouts
Rd 3 2009: 112 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 17 2008: 82 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals, 27 hitouts
Rd 21 2008: 112 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals, 33 hitouts
Rd 12 2008: 125 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals, 25 hitouts

Average is 101 SuperCoach points with 20 disposals and 27 hitouts.

Note: Up and down record against the Saints with his highest score only being 125 back in 2008. Recent form has been steady but not great. No big scores. Coming off three scores of only 101, 108, 105 and 114.

Swan v. Carlton

Rd 3 2011: 108 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 152 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 113 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 90 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 124 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 85 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 108 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 128 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2006: 130 SuperCoach...

...thanks to <a href="http://www.aflanalysis.com/">AFL Analysis[/url].

Now, to put a little context around that statement, the latest edition of TS|Extra just got sent out (Curse this needing to acquire gainful employment as the season winds down!) - On the plus side though, the midnight edition of the newsletter is a lot more risqué than its lunchtime counterpart, so make sure the kids dont read it til morning, when it reverts to its usual G rating.

But I digress, <a href="http://www.aflanalysis.com/">AFL Analysis[/url] are the main sponsors of the TS|Extra this week and run what is in essence, a tipping site, where they have kept a running record of their tips so far this season, and have come out alright thus far. Sure, its not the prettiest site on the internets, but hey- for the longest time this place looked like I threw numbers up on it, so check it out and let the data do the talking.

and as an added bonus, if you sign up for an account there, youll go into a draw to win a $1,000 free bet with Luxbet. Not everyones cup of tea, but hey- a $1000 freebet is a $1000 freebet!

And then there was 2…


If we have worked out anything with these multi bye weekends is that anything can happen and the scoring drops off dramatically. This weekend say the demise of Green Jellybeans who was comprehensively beaten by IPIKDA WONG PRAYER and Rommel’s Legion going down in a nail biter to simonoz. The Legion will be kicking themselves for not trading like they had wanted to do all week. The final looks like its going to be a absolute ripper &amp; at first glance IWP would go in as favourite based on a more consistent performance throughout the competition.
In the Total Points Championship yet again we saw Licky My Nutz come from nowhere to pinch top spot, but not just pinch it they have now opened up a nice 104 point gap after scoring a mighty impressive  2435 (which is highest single week score so far). I think there is only 4 teams in striking distance to take this out now. Think any more then 200 points will be tough to make up but then again past 2 weeks have thrown that out the window!!

Results over the break:

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<h2>WEEK 4 (Round 16)
Match 29 - Rommel’s Legion: 2010 LOST simonoz: 2051

Match 30 – Green Jellybeans: 1945 LOST IPIKDA WONG PRAYER: 2297
<h2>Final (Round 19)
Match 31 - Simonoz vs IPIKDA WONG PRAYER

TOTAL POINTS CHAMPIONSHIP
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="596">
<tbody>

<td width="148" valign="bottom">TEAM
<td width="64" valign="bottom">Week 1
<td width="64" valign="bottom">Week 2
<td width="64" valign="bottom">Week 3
<td width="64" valign="bottom">Week 4
<td width="64" valign="bottom">Week 5
<td width="64" valign="bottom">TOTAL
<td width="64" valign="bottom">



<td width="148" valign="bottom">Licky My Nutz
<td width="64" valign="bottom">2344
<td width="64" valign="bottom">2029
<td width="64" valign="bottom">2048
<td width="64" valign="bottom">2435
<td width="64" valign="bottom">...

<a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank"><img alt="image" border="0" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Clubdeal-logo.png" style="border-width: 0pt;border-style: solid;border: 0;" width="476">[/url]

Looks like we have 2 players this week who correctly predicted Luke Hodge as being #1 this week with his very tidy score of 163.

So check over the break for the winners!
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Tylo - Hodge 167 - missed by 4

HeavyMen - Hodge 153 - missed by 10

torcida - Pendlebury 160 - right on the nose



torcida, I remember you talking about it in the chat, hitting Pendles score directly, it was just a matter of how many others picked Hodge! Well, congrats mate!!


,Dont forget, youll need to sign up at <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] to claim your prize, but youll get the details for that in the mail.
,


,While Ive got your attention, check out <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">todays deal[/url]- Horse, Wine & Beer Tour as featured on Coxys Big Break! Meet Living Horse-racing Legends followed by Wine and Beer Tasting Tour! Includes Morning Tea and Gourmet Lunch. Tour departs from Federation Square. Normally priced at $135, Today only $66! - Any just on this, the Holgate is a great pub, they make a tidy drop, so check this one out!
,


,so what are you waiting for! <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=clubDeals" target="_blank">Get in there and get your entry in![/url]
,

Last week there was the perfect storm in a lot of forward lines.  It caused me to do some munching.   It wasnt pretty let me tell you!

However, now that we enter a period where there are league matches where we only have one team affected this week (Hawthorn), a team that is rarely represented in top 22s next week (Port), you would expect a calm period where teams could solidify scores and be more strongly placed.

That is, if you dont take into account the impact of freak events, such as the Ablett injury or lack thereof, and the Boomer injury...or again lack thereof.

There are a lot of shadows that we can think about jumping out the way of.   Im not sure Id jump if I had either player, even though if youre in the mix for overall it will be a short term hit to the scoring capabilities if either player misses a game.   For what its worth, I tip Ablett out for 1, Boomer out for 2, and probably neither should be traded if youre light on.

For the Best Buys, All Australians, and Im sure a rollicking good discussion to come, read on after the break.

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Best Buys:

D: Shaw and Scotland look solid for those who dont have them.   Broughton with no bye is a player with huge scoring potential, and is probably a worthwhile investment trade for Lower to sure up the D7.  Interestingly in defence it appears you get rated, then your opponents take notice of you with a forward tag, then your score drops.   Fisher copped the Chad last week, and it showed.   Im not sure what this means for the future.   You might have to think outside the box to find your future defensive high scorer.   Though I dont agree with Sainters thought of Ben Reid, it does show the level of attention to detail you need to find the diamond in the rough that will propel your team onwards in the next few weeks.

Do I have one?   Silvagni is probably the best lowish-priced one.

M: Bartel at 348k.  Thanks for coming.  Montagna for those who want no...

<a href="http://www.iscent.com.au/"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/iScent.com_.au_RGB.jpg">[/url]



Alright guys, Ive just pulled together this weeks winner of iScent. It was a tough week at the office, even without Ablett the winner this week managed to take out the prize with a 2260

more over the break
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And the winner was- kakarot, who was certainly helped with the ruck combo of Goldstein and McEvoy leading the way- reckon I might have to start pulling those two into my squad!



The full winning team is:



DEF: Rance, Hurley, Shaw, Suckling, Goddard, Reid, McGrapth (Okeefe, Ferguson, Andreoli)

MID: Carrazzo, Thomas, Hodge, Pendlebury, Shiels, Griffin (Simpkin, Twomey, Wanganeen)

RUC: Mcevoy, Goldstein, McCulloch, Curnow

FWD: Dahlhaus, Nahas, Lobbe, Goodes, OKeefe, Chapman, Grundy (Schneider, Reilly, McGovern)



While here is the top ten for this round!


,
,,<td style="font-weight:bold;">Player
,,<td style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent&ladder=1&sort=score">Score[/url]
,,<td style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent&ladder=1&sort=total">Total[/url]
,

,,,<tr >
,,,<td >kakarot
,,,<td >2260
,,,<td >2260
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >yumow
,,,<td >2243
,,,<td >2243
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >Tim
,,,<td >2209
,,,<td >2209
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >Macca
,,,<td >2128
,,,<td >2128
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >TheOnion
,,,<td >2125
,,,<td >2125
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >stowie
,,,<td >2105
,,,<td >2105
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >gravenger
,,,<td >2104
,,,<td >2104
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >Daveo
,,,<td >2089
,,,<td >2089
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >Madness
,,,<td >2087
,,,<td >2087
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >torcida
,,,<td >2082
,,,<td >2082
,,

As did quite a few others, the Donor team succumbed to the weight of his consistent performances and bought in Sam Fisher last week, only to see him spud it up to be our lowest scoring player of the round (Ablett only just beat him, but needed his score doubled to do so). So yeah, just the one trade for the donor team last week - Otten to Fisher - which was not great and as already alluded to, our captain choice was equally sketchy; however we were obviously not alone.

We scored 2113 for round 16, which was probably slightly below par, although it was still good enough to see us move our ranking in the right direction - albeit by only 322 positions - to be now ranked 2544th.

Our bench selections were ok this week - but only OK. Heppell and Puopolo outscored Jacobs and Iles, so they were good decisions... but, Prestia outscored JackaRoo and also Isaac Smith; and jacobs and Iles outscored the likes of Deledio, Fisher and Ablett, but it would have taken some sort of devine intuition to predict that, and some huge cojones to actually put the players where they ended up best suited.

As usuall, all our players individual scores are over the break::::::::::::

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<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2">



1. <a href="/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">71



2. <a href="/player/627">Fisher[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">36



3. <a href="/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">118



4. <a href="/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">108



5. <a href="/player/176">Shaw[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">119



6. <a href="/player/202">Heppell[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">86



7. <a href="/player/411">Puopolo[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">91



8. <a href="/player/169">Pendlebury[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">160



9. <a...

Well, they beat me to the press this time.

I was planning to do a piece on Sam Mitchell being in danger of repeating Chris Grant and Corey McKernan with most votes and being ineligible and yadda yadda yadda, but the HS managed to get that up 8 hours ago.

Seriously though, can you please get the facts straight: "As with Chris Grant in 2007, this Round 5 incident could cost Sam Mitchell the Brownlow Medal. Picture: Michael Dodge".

Not sure what Chris Grant was doing in 2007, but Im pretty sure it wasnt hitting Nick Holland.

<!--more-->[span style="text-decoration: underline">West Coast v Geelong

TS:
3 - A. Embley (6)
2 - M. Priddis (15)
1 - N. Naitanui (2)

Holey:
3 - A. Embley (9)
2 - C. Ling (11)
1 - M. Priddis (14)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawthorn v Brisbane

TS:
3 - L. Hodge (14)
2 - S. Mitchell (19)
1 - L. Franklin (13)

Holey:
3 - S. Mitchell (20)
2 - L. Hodge (9)
1 - L. Franklin (13)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Sydney v Gold Coast

TS:
3 - R. OKeefe (14)
2 - J. McVeigh (2)
1 - S. Reid (1)

Holey:
3 - R. OKeefe (13)
2 - J. McVeigh (2)
1 - B. Reid (1) (repaying his brother for last week)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon v Richmond

TS:
3 - B. Stanton (4)
2 - D. Zaharakis (5)
1 - H. Hocking (1)

Holey:
3 - B. Stanton (4)
2 - D. Zaharakis (5)
1 - T. Cotchin (7)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v North Melbourne

TS:
3 - D. Swan (14)
2 - S. Pendlebury (18)
1 - D. Thomas (12)

Holey:
3 - S. Pendlebury (17)
2 - D. Swan (15)
1 - D. Thomas (*)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v Port Adelaide

TS:
3 - N. Dal Santo (12)
2 - B. McEvoy (2)
1 - H. Hartlett (2)

Holey:
3 - N. Dal Santo (11)
2 - H. Hartlett (5)
1 - R. Gray (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Western Bulldogs v Carlton

TS:
3 - A. Cooney (4)
2 - M. Boyd (20)
1 - M. Murphy (18)

Holey:
3 - M. Boyd (21)
2 - A. Cooney...