TooSerious

So it would seem Chris Judd has all but wrapped up his third Brownlow.  Thats what Sportsbet would have you believe anyway, paying out $300k to punters 4 weeks early...or 3 weeks for Judd considering the round 23 bye.

Which is the beginning of my argument for the negative:

I have Judd on 27, and Pendles on 26.  Ignoring the ineligibles (Mitchell 27*, Selwood 22*), next best is an over-inflated Boyd on 23, Ablett & Goodes on 21, then back to the trio of Dal Santo, Swan & Thompson on 19.  So yes, Pendlebury the only real threat - but surely more than an insignificant one that would lead you to pay out 4 weeks early.

Then theres the risk of being reported.  Just rubbish.

Pendlebury picked up 21 votes last year (111 SuperCoach avg), playing relatively second fiddle to Swan (127 SuperCoach avg) who managed 24.  This year, Pendles has jumped up to a 130 SuperCoach avg, and Swan has fallen to 121 - totaling a 28 point turnaround between them, or 12% difference combined.  My vote tally is reflective of this, with Pendlebury @ 26 and Swan back on 19.

To add to that, the reverse has happened (to a lesser extent) at the Blues.  Whilst Judd has held on to his 119 point average from last year, Marc Murphy has risen to the same level from 112.

The argument that Judd polls regardless of output holds some truth - but my votes already have this taken into account...which is why Murphy is leading the AFL Coaches Votes Award (amongst others), but finds himself back on 17 on my count.

So after all this, Judd does have the lead - but it is a slender one.  I hope Pendles can have a couple of big games in the next 4 weeks to make it just that little bit more interesting...

<!--more-->[span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v Fremantle

TS:
3 - N. Dal Santo (20)
2 - T. Mzungu (2)
1 - C. Jones (1)

Holey:
3 - N. Dal Santo (19)
2 - T. Mzungu (2)
1 - J. Koschitzke (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong v Gold...

So yeah, you know we have like 6 of the best 20 leagues in the comp. So we were thinking, lets do an eliminator week by week for the top 16 from TooSerious from here on in following the 1 v 16, 2 v 15 time honoured format.

Updates needed for Round 20 to try to find the top 16 TS Leagues for our knockout so please let us know if youre part of these leagues where you are tracking. Will try to update the main post with the comments generated from teams "logging in"...

And with the most recent update, its clear TS are in domination mode in the leagues.  16 of the top 40 leagues FTW!

1 – TS Donor Kebabs 2nd
2 – TS Platinum 5th
3 – TooSerious Donors 11th
4 – FF v TS Challenge 15th
5 – Waaaay Too Serious 18th
6 – TS2 Secs 2 Slow 20th
Provisional…
7 – TS TinLids is 26th
8 – TS Premier League 28th
9 – TS NBA Crew 30th
10 – TS I am Serious 31st
11 – Why so TooSerious 32nd
12 – TS Superleague 34th
13 – Too Serious Legends 35th
14 – TS Expats 37th
15 – TS Can’t be Serious 39th
16 – TS Donuts 40th

Definitely need this league ranks updated, because they would be likely to be close to or in the top 16:

TS RIP Relton

And any we might have missed but for now only in the top 16.   Its tough seeing the Orange Boys and the Pine Warmers out of the top 16!

Thanks all for your cooperation.  Hope to have this list fully updated on Friday!

FYI:

In Round 17 in the forums, we did a basic ranking, which we are trying to update. Weve got a few updated but would like a refresh...

From the Round 17 Roll call:
1st - TS Donor Kebabs - 2nd overall
2nd - TS Platinum - 3rd overall
3rd - TooSerious Donors - 10th
4th - TS2 2Secs TooSlow – 15th
5th - Waaaaay TooSerious – 16th
6th - FF v TS Challenge1 (aka fan footy vs TooSerious ashes league)- 21st overall
7th - TS NBA Crew - 23rd
8th - Too Serious Legends - 29th
9th - TS SuperLeauge – 30th
10th - Why so TooSerious? - 32nd
11th - TS Premier...

So, there was a thread on big footy today discussing how your team would be looking if your captain selection was perfect so far.

The added benefit to doing this, is that you get to see all kinds of handy dandy stats on your captain selections, like average and how many times you got in right.

But more importantly, you can do the math and see where you would have been sitting on the ladder.

Join in over the break for the fun (and a look at my results.)

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Round 1: Swan: 166 (Swan: 166)
Round 2: Swan: 152 (Pendlebury: 162)
Round 3: Swan: 108 (Franklin: 147)
Round 4: Swan: 163 (Swan: 163)
Round 5: Swan: 106 (Murphy: 137)
Round 6: Cox: 141 (Cox: 141)
Round 7: Chapman: 85 (Sandilands: 170)
Round 8: Swan: 98 (Selwood: 153)
Round 9: Swan: 160 (Swan: 160)
Round 10: Selwood: 136 (SJ: 162)
Round 11: Murphy: 127 (Pendlebury: 149)
Round 12: Murphy: 122 (Goddard: 143)
Round 13: Ablett: 144 (Ablett: 144)
Round 14: Ablett: 121 (Scotland: 143)
Round 15: Ablett: 185 (Ablett: 185)
Round 16: Ablett: 19 (Hodge: 163)
Round 17: Ablett: 127 (Petrie: 157)
Round 18: Dal Santo: 158 (Goodes: 167)
Round 19: Ablett: 138 (Cox: 213)
Round 20: Dal Santo: 133 (SJ: 155)

Totals: 2589 (3180)
Difference: -591
Current score: 45,944 (46,535)
Current Rank: 68 (4th)
Correct Picks: 6
Captains Average: 129.3 (159)
Average without 1st Quarter injury captains (ie- Ablett, Selwood so on): 135.26

Most Selected: Ablett and Swan (6)

Taking a closer look at my average, while I scored average-wise underneath what a perma-captain Pendles would have done, if you take into account my selections during his byes, Ive come out 36 points in front of going PermaPendles - Thank you Jasmine!

Yes, its pure navel gazing but it is good to have a looksee at how youve gone thus far! - Plus, Id love to see what kind of numbers you boys at the top have been pulling with your captains to compare with the rest of us mortals!

So, round 20 has come and gone, and the finals are now upon us, but before I get into the review proper, theres a few points I wanted to talk about.

Last weeks 7th place, what the heck happened to them? Anyone got a copy of last weeks Herald Sun so we can see who it was. (Or yanno, anyone out there want to share the hardluck story of how they got themselves busted?)

Lings Bandits have moved up to 13th- while they are still out of contention I reckon, you gotta give some mad props to a bloke who can put in such solid performances year after year.

Impromptu has extended his lead by 21- go son, were all living vicariously!

Youll notice when you go and have a look at the stats that since its round 20, the Next Years Salary column prediction is back! So we can start taking a look to see what people are going to be worth next year!

Anyways, the full review is over the break and the stats are about 10 minutes away.

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St Kilda vs Fremantle
Result: St Kilda by 41, 16.17.113 to 10.12.72

Wow, did anyone see Freos odds before this game, $6.25 or something, seemed almost too good, so I had to take a nibble, put into a multi with the Bombers, Hawthorn and West Coast, you can understand why Im so disappointed with that 4th term, it was a fantastic game up until that point, but it just felt that Freo was suffering the same syndrome that the Bomber have in years gone by- working way too hard for their goals, dominating the play for little reward, only for the opposition to kill them with an end to end goal on the rebound- it happened so often Friday night. Top scoring for the game and continueing his rich vein of good form was Nick Dal Santo. 25 touches and 2 goals were enough to see him score a 133SC, followed by Jason Blake with 27 touches, scoring himself a 123SC. Ben McEvoy did well, 29 hitouts and a 122SC will put a smile on his coaches faces, particularly with the missing rumours that were going round before the game. Fisher...

Well, according to whatever fear-mongering ad I just saw, the Russians and Mexicans have stolen all of the password. *All* of them!

I hope they dont waste my last few trades, though Ill probably just waste em turning Boyd into Swan or something crazy anyways.

So, anyone gunna make a daring prediction on the scores this weekend? Another bumper 3000+ ridicu-week? average? or perhaps the good weather weve been having will put everyone off their game when the cold hits this weekend and well see 2200 being a good score! Personally, Im kinda hoping for the latter.

The final week before the SuperCoach finals and wow, I was expecting bad, but Sylvia and Enright- thats gunna be a real kick in the nuts for a few folk! That said, Sylvia as an emergency? That seems a little... suspicious. Reckon Viney is playing games here? Or are they trying to set an example for his poor game last week?

INS: NRoo, Iles, Harris, Didak, Hodge
OUTS: Sylvia, Enright, Ablett, Prestia, Newman
Extended Bench: N/A

Full teams over the break

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St Kilda v Fremantle
ES &#8211; Fri Aug 05, 7:40pm
St Kilda
B: Sam Gilbert, Jason Blake, Raphael Clarke
HB: Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster
C: David Armitage, Nick Dal Santo, Jason Gram
HF: Brett Peake, Nick Riewoldt, Jack Steven
F: Stephen Milne, Ryan Gamble, Adam Schneider
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Clinton Jones, Leigh Montagna
I/C: Justin Koschitzke, Jarryn Geary, Farren Ray, Dean Polo
Emg: Steven Baker, Nicholas Winmar, Tommy Walsh
In: Jason Blake, Nick Riewoldt
Out: Tom Lynch, Zac Dawson (Suspension)
Fremantle
B: Tendai Mzungu, Alex Silvagni, Antoni Grover
HB: Adam McPhee, Luke McPharlin, Paul Duffield
C: Greg Broughton, Nathan Fyfe, Hayden Ballantyne
HF: Dylan Roberton, Kepler Bradley, Garrick Ibbotson
F: Michael Johnson, Matthew Pavlich, Christopher Mayne
Foll: Zachary Clarke, Michael Barlow, Stephen Hill
I/C: Clayton Hinkley, Nick Suban, Clancee Pearce, Nick Lower
Emg: Ryan Crowley, Jayden Pitt, Jack Anthony
In: Luke McPharlin, Clayton Hinkley, Kepler Bradley, Nick Suban
Out: Ryan Crowley, Rhys Palmer (Ankle), Matthew de Boer (Knee), Jack Anthony
Carlton v Melbourne
MCG &#8211; Sat Aug 06, 2:10pm
Carlton
B: Nick Duigan, Lachlan Henderson, Jeremy Laidler
HB: Aaron Joseph, Bret Thornton, Zach Tuohy
C: Heath Scotland, Chris Judd,...

So who missed the boat last weekend? Lots of big (or at the very least serviceable Captain-esque) scores from most premiums last week except for Judd and Franklin.

Based on the historical stats, it can be seen that this week, again, despite the loss of Ablett, there are plenty of decent choices as captain. Additionally, we can’t forget the Geelong players who will be having a party against the Ablett-less Suns at Skilled Stadium.

Last week against Melbourne, Geelong players shared a total of 2167 SuperCoach points (66%) against Melbourne’s total of 1135 SuperCoach points (34%). Nine players broke the ton. Geelong played Gold Coast in Round 10 this year. Geelong won by 66 points. Geelong players shared a total of 1819 SuperCoach points (55%) against Gold Coast’s total of 1483 SuperCoach points (45%). Geelong had six century makers in that game. Steve Johnson led the way with 7 goals and 162 SuperCoach points.

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Dal Santo v. Fremantle

Rd 10 2011: 137 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2010: 138 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 129 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 93 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 20 2007: 119 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 9 2007: 125 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

Average is 125 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Dockers. Only one sub-100 game otherwise all games over 119. He is in career best form at the moment averaging 150 over his previous six games (189, 158, 107, 174, 139, 134).

Goddard v. Fremantle

Rd 10 2011: 57 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
Rd 12 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 133 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 113 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 20 2008: 104 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 152 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals

Average is 117 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Note: Take out the score this year...

Alright guys, 9 days to go and Im sure youre all just waiting for the RMT thread to get underway!

So hear goes, Im thinking things will probably go smoother if we stick to just the Barclays and VS comps.

And dont forget to specify which comp youre team is from!!

Oh, and I cracked open a couple of new VS leagues as the last one was full! - 851712 and 920291 are the codes and its the last ones Ive room too make!

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And for the record, my current Barclays team is:

Given (Cerny)
Gibbs, Samba, Kompany (De Laet, Tate)
Taarabt, Moses, Yaya Toure, Kuyt, Silva
Van Persie, Suarez (Holt)

Would love to hear some feedback! (Also, props to Ant for the sneaky plan )

Along with a lot of others, we had an awesome round this week. Our playing stocks were quite depleted; however we came up big to score a PB of 2802!! This resulted in our best ranking for a particular round - 970th (amazing that there were about 1000 people who scored more than 2800!) - and skyrocketed us up almost 1300 positions to reach our 2nd highest ranking ever of 1,825th! Well done donors!

We havent been ranked inside the top 2000 since round 4, and it feels good to be back. Lets keep pushing now to get into the top 1000 for the first time - I reckon we can do it.

We had a heap of the big performers of round 19 - big Cox, Stevie Johnson, Swan, Pendlebury, Priddis, Gibbs, Goddard, Broughton and Ablett all scoring >135! And our reserves filling in for players out on bye did well; however our bench selections could have been better.

Captain choice was alright with Pendles 160 doubled. Judd finished second in that vote, so its lucky he didnt have more support as he only scored 88 this week.

Now onto the aforementioned poor bench selections. Firstly, we came up with the bold selection of starting Keefe at R2 in front of ZSmith, but that didnt work out so well with Keefe only scoring 40 which was 33 less than his understudy. Our other bad bench decision was Puopolo on the def bench with Heppell starting as we lost 26 points there with Pup tonning up in a fine swimming contest against Balantyne. Our only other required bench selection was spot on with Richardson on the bench as our lowest scoring fwd, and a shout out should go out to Prestia, Mzungu and ISmith who all filled in admirably this week up fwd for us.

We made one trade this week. We finally traded out Heater, bringing in Hurn who ended up scoring our 6th lowest score for the round. Lets hope he gets back to the sort of form he produced a couple of years ago!

Now over the break are all the players individual scores from round 19; and let us know in the comments how you are all...

Hi all.   Sorry for the delay, but thought the site was  a little busy this morning so left space for some good commenting on the other articles.

Onto this one, but first, because of the delay, Ive whipped up a visual representation of the Premiership Coaches Dynasty article that might interest a few of you.   Take a look here: <a href="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1dcBio_J7xCwFHj3_nCo-EGrTcZYV05X8mr3RlVEwW-8/edit?hl=en_GB">https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1dcBio_J7xCwFHj3_nCo-EGrTcZYV05X8mr3RlVEwW-8/edit?hl=en_GB[/url]

Now...onto the issue at hand.   Its a critical week for a few teams as they jockey for top 4, top 8 or overall honours with your mates.   Boyd, you could cover, but Ablett as well?  That means some juggling may be necessary, its time to bring on the MPP and means that maybe a sly sideways or upgrade might be in order this weekend.

So that means Best Buys.   Them and the AA teams are over the break...

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Best Buys:

D: As a POD I dont mind Bock and Gibson.  If you dont have him, Fisher is still an OK option, because he should get his fitness back.   If you hold Lower, hes at the peak of his cycle and could actually downgrade to Johncock or Adcock.   An interesting move for those who want to shore up their overall team.
M: Selwood is cheap at 460 I reckon, but with the obvious issue of a bye to come in R22. Cotchin at 422 and has no bye.   Priddis 471 is not bad value, but possibly wait a week then get Boyd/Griffen to the finish.
R: Mumford at 435 is proving value.   Unfortunately for Impromptu Kreuzer has turned into another Zac Smith.  Solid 80s but not much more.
F: Cyril Rioli at 415 must attract a look.  Pavlich 447 is low for his standards.  Sylvia 375 for those who are willing to take a gamble.   Leon Davis is in glittering form for those who want a POD, but his price is now up to 466...and finals are around the corner.

All Australians (Season):

D: Goddard,...