TooSerious

Round 18.  Moving Round.

Judd, Pendlebury and Goodes all best on or thereabouts.  Mitchell*, Ablett, Murphy, Selwood* & Franklin* all good chances to poll.  And whilst Chris Judd is seemingly on to his way to his third brownlow ($2.65 for the win), dont discount Pendles at $8.50....

The pair are pulling away from the chasing group, with a rift of now 2-3 votes back to the third placed Boyd - who was in the best 5-6 on the ground, but not in the top 3.

Milne picks up 3 votes for his 8 goals, whilst Eddiell have to settle with 2.

Over the break are this weeks votes in full, leaderboards, plus a detailed review of where the team leaders are at...not for any other reason than Im over in Melbourne for work, the bar fridge is empty, and Im dreaming of September coin...

<!--more-->So if we can discount the final 6 rounds that are yet to be played, I have in order of safest as follows:

G. Ablett (GCS) - 13-15 ahead of the next best, and an outside chance to take the overall.  Paying $1.01.
S. Thompson (ADE) - 7-11 votes clear. $1.42, good value considering the margin.
B. Moloney (MEL) - 7-10 votes clear.  $1.22.
M. Boyd (WBD) - 7-9 votes clear.  $1.40 - again, pretty good value.
J. Watson (ESS) - 6-7 clear.  $1.16 - better options out there at this stage.
S. Pendlebury (COL) - 3-9 votes ahead.  Paying $1.90, great odds.
J. Selwood (GEE) - 3-8 votes clear.  Paying $1.63, like Watson - has missed a big chunk of footy, but the odds are more favourable for Joel.
N. Dal Santo (STK) - 3-5 votes clear.  $1.85, good value for a standout in an average-ish year for the Saints.
S. Mitchell (HAW) - 2-5 votes ahead.  $1.36...the umps being given directives for Mitchell not to poll too much the only real threat.

Pretty comfortable with any of the above 9 being in my certainties list - but at $22,  we need to beef up the odds with the next tier:

S. Black (BRL) - Rockliff a minor threat.  $2 pretty good value, I have the range of Simon...

EDIT: This weeks round review was supplied by Sainters. Youre a legend mate. - Also, youll find it over the break.

Alright guys, the full review is gunna be late tonight, but just a few quick points.

Firstly, the halcyon days of Saturday night all but asploded with StevieJ being replaced by Issac Smiths 10 on Sunday- Hurts even more that I had Mzungu as a midfield emergency- and even *more* that I was high-5ing myself of Saturday night at my decision to move Petrie to the rucks, being Z. Smith and move NRoo from Forward emergency to F7. Its a funny old game.

Still, wound up with a 2553, not bad, but enough to win just a *single* league game! Just one!!

So, how did you all go? For those playing at home, the highest score Ive seen so far is a 2734, while the comp leader, Impromptu got himself a 2576. Huge in any other week!

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St Kilda V Adelaide
St Kilda Defeated Adelaide by 103 points

When the first siren blew, and the match was underway, the Saints were in control from the very first bounce, Milne ran Johncock in circles and kicked the first 2 goals, Adam Schneider chipped in for 2 in the middle parts of the quarter, and Milne kicked his 3rd to finish of a fantastic quarter of footy for the Saints. Patrick Dangerfield kicked Adelaides only goal in the quarter. We fast-forward to the final siren and nothing had changed, the Saints win comfortably 127-24. Nick Dal Santos 31 possession game was enough to rack up a very good 158 SC, Milne and his 8 goals trooped along and scored a nice 139 SC, Schneiders 5 goals straight got him 121 SC, Nick Riewoldts 3.2 got 120 SC, Brendon Goddards 30 disposals earnt him 119 SC, Montagna got 28 disposals and 129 SC. For the Crows, Sam Jacobs dominated the ruck early on and got a solid 107 SuperCoach & Michael Doughty got 104 SC. Sean Dempster tagged Bernie Vince and kept him quite as "Ferb".
Heroes: Dal Santo - Montagna - Riewoldt - Goddard - Jacobs
Villains: Vince -...

So, welcome to captains choice for round 18, Im youre host, Walesy, filling in for the always vibrant Jasmine, whos once again been whisked off on a great adventure of both daring and intrigue.

So, bare with us and well see if I cant stalk the numbers and tease a little bit of love out of them! Keep in mind though, that Im a little pressed for time, so after looking at the numbers, Ill just be writing about the exceptional choices, not the rest- but feel free to pull up the numbers and discuss them in the comments for everyone else!

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Nick Dal Santo vs Adelaide

Round 6, 2011: 150SC, 29 disposals
Round 22, 2010: 124SC, 34 disposals
Round 10, 2010: 138SC, 31 disposals
Round 16, 2009: 121SC, 30 disposals
Round 2, 2009: 122SC, 27 disposals

3 game average: 140, average against team: 137

Notes: Dal Santo certainly is Mr Consistancy when it comes to playing the Crows, doesnt matter if its here or there, he seems to knock up a good score!


Scott Pendlebury vs Gold Coast

3 games average: 141

Notes: Well, theres not really any stats to back this one up, but a 141 average leading into this game, against the Gold Coast Suns has got to be considered heavily.

Chris Juddd vs Essendon

Round 4, 2011: 84SC, 24 disposals
Round 19, 2010: 110SC, 28 disposals
Round 13, 2010: 79SC, 22 disposals
Round 3, 2009: 119SC, 33 disposals

3 game average: 136

Notes: Well, its been a while since Juddy has had a big game against the Bombers, but he is certainly in a rich vein of form at the moment, averaging 136SC over the last 3 weeks. With Watson and Hocking sitting the game out as well, it could be a perfect storm for him pulling out a good one.

Luke Hodge vs Melbourne

Round 2, 2011: 79SC, 21 disposals
Round 20, 2010: 72SC, 19 disposals
Round 1, 2010: 121SC, 34 disposals

3 game average: 139

Notes: As with Judd, its been a while since hes knocked out a big one against the Dees, but his current...

With lockout just hours away, whats the plan? Any trades needed this week?

Or just happy to sit with your bench covering any outs? Handling Suckling alright?

What about the maybe Pendles out? Seems to be picking up steam that rumour- love to get an official word!

Like the Judd one, while Twiggers is due soon, its not tomorrow!

<a href="http://www.iscent.com.au/"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/iScent.com_.au_RGB.jpg">[/url]



So, its the final week of the iScent comp- well, technically, Ill still be running the comp for fun and stuff, but it is the last week for prizes!



Anyways, this week we found ourself with a winner whos been doing magnificently at the ClubDeals comp of late, looks like hes decided to turn his attention to the iScent, beating second place this week by a massive 250 points!
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And so the winner was: Torcida, with a captains selection of Brendan Goddard.



The full winning team is:



DEF: Broughton, Enright, Newman, Deledio, Goddard, Marin, Watson (Okeefe, Webster, McGovern)

MID: Vince, Swan, Bartel, Montagna, Cotchin, Priddis (Simpkin, Twomey, Wanganeen)

RUC: Cox, Leuenberger (McCulloch, Curnow)

FWD: Podsiadly, Goodes, Higgins, OKeefe, Sylvia, Brennan, Petrie (Schneider, Reilly, Von Bertouch)


You can see the full ladder <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent&ladder=1&sort=score">here[/url]<a href="http://tooserious.net" target="_blank" style="color: #111111;text-decoration: none;font-weight: normal;">, and hey, while youre there- get your entry in for next week!
,,


,,and dont forget, to check out Silverbacks Team of the Round, <a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=1025.0">click here to see what team was good enough to score 3125 points.[/url]
,

<a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank"><img alt="image" border="0" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Clubdeal-logo.png" style="border-width: 0pt;border-style: solid;border: 0;" width="476">[/url]
Wow, it was a suprisingly tough week in ClubDeals this week, with a lot of the favorites to do well, messing people up. Boyd, Goldstein, and a couple of the Cats boys really messed up the majority, so much so that a Gary Ablett pick made the top 3 (in fact, 3rd place was a complete draw this week, so has gone down to who got their tip in earlier!
,


,So check over the break for the winners!
,<!--more-->
,Daveo - Chris Newman - missed by 7

,Tim - Scott Pendlebury - missed by 20

,stowie - Gary Ablett - Missed by 33

,

,That said, our own JoshyC also tipped Ablett for 160 and missed by 33, so we go to who got their tips in earlier. Stowie got his in a 9:58 on the Friday morning, while Joshy waited til 14:49 on the same day! Bad luck mate!!
,


,Dont forget, youll need to sign up at <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] to claim your prize, but youll get the details for that in the mail.
,


,While Ive got your attention, check out <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">todays deal[/url]- Only $29 for a Total Hair & Body Rejuvenation Pack from world-class beauty & skincare company, The Natural Source, normally $69.
,


,As with the iScent comp, this brings to an end the fun and games for this one, however, for anyone interested, Ill keep running the scores through so we can all keep playing!
,

Not too many outs this week which is pretty nice, should allow us to run full teams this week. The only couple of issues is Murphy and Suckling sitting out.

INS: Richardson, Buckley, Rioli
OUTS: JB, Bob Murphy, Jolly, Watson, Suckling
Extended Bench: StevieJ, Howe, Evans, Lower, Darling

Still, should see some pretty big scores this week I reckon!!

Full list of teams are over the break
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Also, rumour has it that Jobe Watson has done his hammy again, which could have him sitting out until the finals.

St Kilda v Adelaide
ES &#8211; Fri Jul 22, 7:40pm
St Kilda
B: Dean Polo, Zac Dawson, Raphael Clarke
HB: Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster
C: Farren Ray, Nick Dal Santo, Jason Gram
HF: Brett Peake, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert
F: Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Jack Steven
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Clinton Jones, Leigh Montagna
I/C: David Armitage, Jarryn Geary, Adam Schneider, Ryan Gamble
Emg: Andrew McQualter, Tom Lynch, Tommy Walsh
In: Jarryn Geary
Out: James Gwilt (Knee)
Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Daniel Talia, Andy Otten
HB: Michael Doughty, Ben Rutten, Nathan van Berlo
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Brodie Smith
HF: Richard Tambling, Jack Gunston, Ricky Henderson
F: Patrick Dangerfield, Kurt Tippett, Matthew Wright
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Bernie Vince, Rory Sloane
I/C: Brent Reilly, Brad Moran, Brad Symes, Jared Petrenko
Emg: Chris Knights, Ivan Maric, Luke Thompson
In: Jack Gunston
Out: Matthew Jaensch (Shoulder)
Milestones: Graham Johncock &#8211; 200 games, Brent Reilly &#8211; 150 games
North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
ES &#8211; Sat Jul 23, 2:10pm
North Melbourne
B: Cameron Richardson, Cameron Pedersen, Michael Firrito
HB: Brady Rawlings, Scott Thompson, Kieran Harper
C: Daniel Wells, Ryan...

Welcome to another Best Buys.  Not long now before trades are made from necessity rather than design.   In fact we are probably in that area for a lot of teams.

Anyway, for some this week will be the time after the cold light of day, to decide who to trade Shaw to.   I was constrained by cash in the end fortuitously because Lower came in and did the business.   Though Nick has shown some amazing form at times this year, hes not someone he can be completely relied upon, so its back to the Shaw out drawing board for my team this week.   Its not easy to find the right player, and with finances being stretched in the Legion, Im running out of fuel at precisely the wrong time.   Where Newman might have been a discount option, a big week has removed his name.   Johncock went and got injured, Suckling and Birchall are tantalisingly out of reach, and Scotland still retains that annoying bye.

The other thing to consider is a good run for your team doesnt necessarily mean a good score for defenders.   Those thinking Hurn might reconsider when they see the Eagles good draw.  That might mean good for Kennedy and not for Hurn.   Id love someone to run some stats on the scoring of defenders in winning teams to see if my thought holds water.   The ticker tends to buck my gutfeel thought, and I dont want to be one to argue with the ticker, but is this a time for a minority report?

Making the right move is paramount, but its nearly impossible.   Makes you think just relying on Stanley and Lower is a legitimate tactic.

The other area of interest I think is how you handle Smith in R2.   A fair few have him there, and while hes been serviceable, you can see the signs of a long year taking its toll.   Id certainly plan on keeping him for this week at least, because he should be able to get some points against Jolly (who is a good tap-to-ad vs opponent ruck, but not a great "get hitouts" ruck).

Most of us have a decent forward line, and it appears Petrie...

This week, we didnt do any trades for the first time since round 5! It was a fairly tight vote to decide it; and even after the news of Heater being suspended, there was a quick collective decision made to sit on our remaining trades for the time being.

We finished with a slightly below-par score for this round - 2359 - which saw us slip in the rankings for the first time in a month, moving back to be 2,771st.

We made some great choices with our subs this week, with only the decision of Mzungu over Prestia a bad one. And our captain choice of Pendles was first class!! although I should point out that he only narrowly beat Boyd in the votes and Boyd as cap would have been most upsetting - I know from personal experience!

Over the break are the usual:::::

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<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2">



1. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/130">Scotland[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">111



2. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">114



3. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/627">Fisher[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">112



4. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">115



5. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">106



6. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/241">Broughton[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">127



7. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/202">Heppell[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">71



8. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/169">Pendlebury[/url] (MID) (Capt)
<td align="right">290



9. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/116">Judd[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">122...

As this years race for supercoach glory is now down to a handful of coaches, so too is the race for this years brownlow medal.  This week, lets have a detailed look at the 5 main chances, how they have gone to date, and what their run home looks like.

A couple of past winners, a pair of the new elite midfielders, and a rookie-listed player come captain make up the five.  That, along with this weeks votes and leaderboards over the page.

<!--more-->1. Chris Judd (CAR) - vote range 16-26 - combined tally (TS/Holey) 21
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 6, 10, 12 &amp; 15
Last 3 years count (10-09-08): 30(w) - 22 - 16
Current Odds: $3/$1.50

Favourite for a reason.  The two time winner has had another stellar season to back up last years win - which was his second.  Very consistent start to the year, and has continued to pull out some big performances between some mediocre ones through the middle of the season.  Has an amazing polling rate of 1.9 votes per combined 200+ SC/DT score, and has achieved that feat no less than 11 times this season.  Whilst he has more competition within his own ranks to pull votes, Carlton are winning more games - not that that has affected him getting votes in the past.  Only downside is that over the last 3 years, only one player has polled well in the following year (Bartel 10 votes in 08, Cooney 3 votes in 09, Ablett with 26 votes last year).

2. Matthew Boyd (WBD) - vote range 19-22 - combined tally 20.5
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 3, 5 &amp; 12
Last 3 years count: 20 - 14 - 12
Current Odds: $15/$4.50

Having his best year to date, after polling a career best 20 votes last year.  Big purple patch in the first half of the year, averaging 125 SuperCoach points between rounds 2 &amp; 12.  Unfortunately the Bulldogs only won 3 games through this period, and now that they are back to their winning ways, his form has dropped slightly.  Polls 1.3 votes per +200 SC/DT game, which is the best rate in his...