TooSerious

Not too many outs this week which is pretty nice, should allow us to run full teams this week. The only couple of issues is Murphy and Suckling sitting out.

INS: Richardson, Buckley, Rioli
OUTS: JB, Bob Murphy, Jolly, Watson, Suckling
Extended Bench: StevieJ, Howe, Evans, Lower, Darling

Still, should see some pretty big scores this week I reckon!!

Full list of teams are over the break
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Also, rumour has it that Jobe Watson has done his hammy again, which could have him sitting out until the finals.

St Kilda v Adelaide
ES &#8211; Fri Jul 22, 7:40pm
St Kilda
B: Dean Polo, Zac Dawson, Raphael Clarke
HB: Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster
C: Farren Ray, Nick Dal Santo, Jason Gram
HF: Brett Peake, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert
F: Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Jack Steven
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Clinton Jones, Leigh Montagna
I/C: David Armitage, Jarryn Geary, Adam Schneider, Ryan Gamble
Emg: Andrew McQualter, Tom Lynch, Tommy Walsh
In: Jarryn Geary
Out: James Gwilt (Knee)
Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Daniel Talia, Andy Otten
HB: Michael Doughty, Ben Rutten, Nathan van Berlo
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Brodie Smith
HF: Richard Tambling, Jack Gunston, Ricky Henderson
F: Patrick Dangerfield, Kurt Tippett, Matthew Wright
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Bernie Vince, Rory Sloane
I/C: Brent Reilly, Brad Moran, Brad Symes, Jared Petrenko
Emg: Chris Knights, Ivan Maric, Luke Thompson
In: Jack Gunston
Out: Matthew Jaensch (Shoulder)
Milestones: Graham Johncock &#8211; 200 games, Brent Reilly &#8211; 150 games
North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
ES &#8211; Sat Jul 23, 2:10pm
North Melbourne
B: Cameron Richardson, Cameron Pedersen, Michael Firrito
HB: Brady Rawlings, Scott Thompson, Kieran Harper
C: Daniel Wells, Ryan...

Welcome to another Best Buys.  Not long now before trades are made from necessity rather than design.   In fact we are probably in that area for a lot of teams.

Anyway, for some this week will be the time after the cold light of day, to decide who to trade Shaw to.   I was constrained by cash in the end fortuitously because Lower came in and did the business.   Though Nick has shown some amazing form at times this year, hes not someone he can be completely relied upon, so its back to the Shaw out drawing board for my team this week.   Its not easy to find the right player, and with finances being stretched in the Legion, Im running out of fuel at precisely the wrong time.   Where Newman might have been a discount option, a big week has removed his name.   Johncock went and got injured, Suckling and Birchall are tantalisingly out of reach, and Scotland still retains that annoying bye.

The other thing to consider is a good run for your team doesnt necessarily mean a good score for defenders.   Those thinking Hurn might reconsider when they see the Eagles good draw.  That might mean good for Kennedy and not for Hurn.   Id love someone to run some stats on the scoring of defenders in winning teams to see if my thought holds water.   The ticker tends to buck my gutfeel thought, and I dont want to be one to argue with the ticker, but is this a time for a minority report?

Making the right move is paramount, but its nearly impossible.   Makes you think just relying on Stanley and Lower is a legitimate tactic.

The other area of interest I think is how you handle Smith in R2.   A fair few have him there, and while hes been serviceable, you can see the signs of a long year taking its toll.   Id certainly plan on keeping him for this week at least, because he should be able to get some points against Jolly (who is a good tap-to-ad vs opponent ruck, but not a great "get hitouts" ruck).

Most of us have a decent forward line, and it appears Petrie...

This week, we didnt do any trades for the first time since round 5! It was a fairly tight vote to decide it; and even after the news of Heater being suspended, there was a quick collective decision made to sit on our remaining trades for the time being.

We finished with a slightly below-par score for this round - 2359 - which saw us slip in the rankings for the first time in a month, moving back to be 2,771st.

We made some great choices with our subs this week, with only the decision of Mzungu over Prestia a bad one. And our captain choice of Pendles was first class!! although I should point out that he only narrowly beat Boyd in the votes and Boyd as cap would have been most upsetting - I know from personal experience!

Over the break are the usual:::::

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<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2">



1. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/130">Scotland[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">111



2. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">114



3. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/627">Fisher[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">112



4. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">115



5. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">106



6. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/241">Broughton[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">127



7. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/202">Heppell[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">71



8. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/169">Pendlebury[/url] (MID) (Capt)
<td align="right">290



9. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/116">Judd[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">122...

As this years race for supercoach glory is now down to a handful of coaches, so too is the race for this years brownlow medal.  This week, lets have a detailed look at the 5 main chances, how they have gone to date, and what their run home looks like.

A couple of past winners, a pair of the new elite midfielders, and a rookie-listed player come captain make up the five.  That, along with this weeks votes and leaderboards over the page.

<!--more-->1. Chris Judd (CAR) - vote range 16-26 - combined tally (TS/Holey) 21
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 6, 10, 12 &amp; 15
Last 3 years count (10-09-08): 30(w) - 22 - 16
Current Odds: $3/$1.50

Favourite for a reason.  The two time winner has had another stellar season to back up last years win - which was his second.  Very consistent start to the year, and has continued to pull out some big performances between some mediocre ones through the middle of the season.  Has an amazing polling rate of 1.9 votes per combined 200+ SC/DT score, and has achieved that feat no less than 11 times this season.  Whilst he has more competition within his own ranks to pull votes, Carlton are winning more games - not that that has affected him getting votes in the past.  Only downside is that over the last 3 years, only one player has polled well in the following year (Bartel 10 votes in 08, Cooney 3 votes in 09, Ablett with 26 votes last year).

2. Matthew Boyd (WBD) - vote range 19-22 - combined tally 20.5
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 3, 5 &amp; 12
Last 3 years count: 20 - 14 - 12
Current Odds: $15/$4.50

Having his best year to date, after polling a career best 20 votes last year.  Big purple patch in the first half of the year, averaging 125 SuperCoach points between rounds 2 &amp; 12.  Unfortunately the Bulldogs only won 3 games through this period, and now that they are back to their winning ways, his form has dropped slightly.  Polls 1.3 votes per +200 SC/DT game, which is the best rate in his...

Hi all,

Just been doing some fascinating research (well fascinating to boffins like me) when thinking about how the premiership coaches learn their trade.

Lots of this thinking comes from the death of Yabby Jeans, and hearing of the way he influenced many future premiership coaches.   One might have been surprised to learn that Mick Malthouse, the Tigers premiership player was actually first mentored in the art of coaching by the great Jeans.

So I did what has probably been done countless times before, and I looked at each Premiership Coach from history, then worked out where their lineage came from.   There were some interesting and not altogether surprising results.   (Note: For the analysis below, a premiership could count in numerous streams if the coach had been previously mentored by two others.)

The dominant stream over football history I have dubbed the Tulloch, after Collingwood skipper and AFL grand final umpire, the great Lardie Tulloch.   It also gives the name a regal feel, after the awesome TJ Smith horse which was known as one of the best in history.

The Tulloch stream merged in with the Worrall/Clark and the Ricketts influenced many of the greatest coaches of the game.  They included Worrall, McHale, Minogue, Hughes, Bentley, Smith, Barassi, Walls, Blight, Roos and Clarkson.   This stream accounts for 46 of the premierships to have been decided in history.

For an analysis of current coaches (and future) and the other dominant streams, look over the break...

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So the Tulloch stream with 46 (Worrall stream 38, Ricketts stream 34) is the dominant stream of all time.  But recently, there have been other streams that have shone.  And there were decent streams in the past we must look at as well.

There was the Reynolds stream with 6, the Clymo stream with 5 and the Brosnan stream with 3 for those who have won more than 3.   These were in the years largely post-war, and were nipping at the heels of the great...

With many people writing off their 2011 seasons and resigning themselves to the odd tweak and a charge towards the finals- or worse, a charge towards the "minor cup", it gets to the point in the year where we start thinking about the Summer sports.

And with just 4 weeks to go, its probably time to start checking out the EPL.

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Now, what we played in these parts last year were both the official Barclays comp, and the Virtual Sports offering, however, since these two comps havent quite opened yet, I figure Ill fire up a <A href="http://fantasyfootball.metro.co.uk">Metro league</A> for anyone champing at the bit to get into it.

Anyways, the comp can be found here: <A href="http://fantasyfootball.metro.co.uk">HERE</A>, and the TooSerious league number is 11241.

Alright, so now thats done, lets take a quick look at the three new teams to move up to the Premier league this year, as you usually find, one of these teams will more than likely perform above the odds, so picking the right guys from them will be very important.

Swansea City

Its amazing how much a difference the home/away advantage is in Soccer and its none more pronounce than with Swansea, at home, they managed 41 goals while conceeding 11- the best in the Champions league last year- however away from home they scored just 28 while conceeding 31 goals, a huge change. It does mean than a cheap Swansea defender will probably be on the cards for all- just make sure hes on the bench when playing away. (This advice doesnt quite carry through to the VS comp with its 3 game rolling averages!).

Pick of the lot: I gotta say Scott Sinclair, he played 42 games last year for 22 goals- including a hat-trick. However, youll want to watch Swanseas signing of Watfords Danny Graham, who kicked 24 goals last year for the Hornets. On the defencive front, youll want to keep an eye on signing, but assuming nothing, keep an eye on Angel Rangel- what a name! He...

And so round 17 draws to a close- just two more weeks worth of league games til the finals roll up, so before I get into the reviews I gotta ask the question, Are you in? Or are the next two weeks hugely important?

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Essendon vs Adelaide
Result: Essendon by 11, 12.12.84 to 10.13.73

Alright, theres no way I can review this game without my bias showing through, it was definitely a game of two difference stories- and how inaccurate kicking changes games. It started off with the Bombers being inaccurate, kicking 2.7 to the first half, then kicking 10.5 in the second half. This was the total opposite of what Adelaide did, kicking 8.7 in the first half and 2.6 in the second half. Leading the charge for the Bombers was Angus Monfries, perhaps his confession throughout the week put a bit of a rocket under him- heres hoping he can continue that form! Anyways, he picked up 35 disposals for a 126SC. Top scoring for the Crow was Scott Thompson, who really seemed everywhere, picking up 37 touches and 111SC. Jacobs scored himself a 106SC with 30 hitouts, Petrenko played another great game with 19 touches for a 105SC whil Dangerfield kicked 3 goals for a 104SC. On the rookie front, Talia is approaching his bubble with a fantastic average and an 81SC this week- his DEF/FWD could be invaluable if youve got Murphy in your squad! The biggest villian for the game, through no fault of his own- he did score a 50 off essentially one quarter of football.

Heroes: Monfries, Thompsons, Jacobs
Villians: Howlett, Johncock, Smith

Richmond vs Gold Coast
Result: Gold Coast by 15, 12.13.85 to 9.16.70

Boy I love rooting for the Gold Coast, nothing beats cheering an underdog to victory, but as with Fridays game, it was really inaccurate kicking that kept them in it, with Richmond kicking 2.7 in the 3rd quarter. It was a strange game though, with one end of the ground having 19.23 kicked at it to 2.6 - bizarre. The top 3...

With the season getting to the pointy end and trades getting pretty slim on the ground, show of hands who wants to smack Heath Shaw upside the head for taking a punt on a Collingwood game? Apparently its all coming up Impromptu...

Anyhoo. Adelaide vs the Bombers coming up shortly. Go the Bombers! Catch you in the chat!

Hi all,

I dont have time for much discussion here.  Only to say that the whips are cracking for overall, and though many tipped Impromptu for a slide, he still has a few trades up the sleeve, and now the "not so secret" weapon in Joel Selwood.

I dont hold any knowledge of where hes thinking with this weeks captain selection, but he could do worse than give the Duckwood the job.

Its not easy to pull points back on the leader, but there are some past champs (Lings Bandits top 20, Buster Gonad just sneaking closer into the top 120) who are looming large for a late run.

Utilising the great work of Kel and TiB in the forums, Im going to piece together some nice stuff over the break and try to make sense of it all.

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Kel put together a good little guide to the top 20 team selections last week in the forums.   It was and is a bit hidden, but I located it, read it, and will give his summary...thanks for the great detective work mate!   And yes, I know its a week late so it may have been updated slightly with trades made last week.   But anyway it is a worthwhile guide to look at - because lets be honest how many top 20 teams had trades to burn last weekend?

Top 20 Teams - Forwards:
<a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&amp;t=968.0">http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&amp;t=968.0[/url]

19 - Pavlich, Franklin 18 - Petrie 17 - Goodes 16 - N Riewoldt 14 - OKeefe 13 - Chapman 9 - Harvey 8 - Sylvia 7 - Johnson 4 - J Riewoldt, Fyfe 2 - Cloke, Higgins 1 - Brennan, Zaharakis, Lecras, Yarran, Rioli.

Points to note: Franklin bye this week.   Goodes + OKeefe + possible J Roo in Round 19.   No one has JB.   Enough have Sylvia and Chapman to make the options interesting.   Cloke looming as a very dangerous POD.   Harvey if his injury curtails him, thats going to hurt the owners big time.   I think its interesting heaps more have Chapman than Johnson.   MPP is an interesting...

Ablett and Harvey have both been named but surely will have question marks.

The big ins and outs are as follows:

INS: Smith, Toy, Watson (CAR), Selwood
OUTS: Callinan, Hibberd, Matera, Buckley
Extended Bench: N/A

Teams are over the break.
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Adelaide v Essendon
AS &#8211; Fri Jul 15, 8:10pm
Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Andy Otten
HB: Matthew Jaensch, Daniel Talia, Michael Doughty
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Richard Tambling
HF: Patrick Dangerfield, Ricky Henderson, Rory Sloane
F: Jared Petrenko, Kurt Tippett, Matthew Wright
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Bernie Vince, Nathan van Berlo
I/C: Brent Reilly, Brad Moran, Brad Symes, Brodie Smith
Emg: Ivan Maric, Myke Cook, Jack Gunston
In: Ricky Henderson, Brodie Smith
Out: Richard Douglas (Ankle), Ian Callinan (Hamstring)
Essendon
B: Ricky Dyson, Tayte Pears, Kyle Hardingham
HB: Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hurley, Dyson Heppell
C: Mark McVeigh, Brent Stanton, Brent Prismall
HF: Leroy Jetta, David Hille, David Zaharakis
F: Travis Colyer, Stewart Crameri, Angus Monfries
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Jake Melksham, Heath Hocking
I/C: Henry Slattery, Alwyn Davey, Kyle Reimers, Ben Howlett
Emg: Cale Hooker, Tom Bellchambers, Michael Ross
In: Henry Slattery
Out: Michael Hibberd (Soreness)
Richmond v Gold Coast Suns
CAZ &#8211; Sat Jul 16, 2:10pm
Richmond
B: Chris Newman, Alex Rance, Luke McGuane
HB: Brett Deledio, Will Thursfield, Bachar Houli
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Robin Nahas, Ben Griffiths, Bradley Helbig
F: Tyrone Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Jake King
Foll: Andrew Browne, Reece Conca, Nathan Foley
I/C: Daniel Jackson, Matthew White, Shaun Grigg, Jake Batchelor
Emg: Shane Tuck, Mitch Morton, Mitchell Farmer...