TooSerious

Recent form this year suggests the re-emergence of perma-captain Gary Ablett Jnr. To make things interesting, Swan returned from his drug free Arizona trip and scored a very nice 133 SuperCoach points against Sydney bringing his season average up to 117. To make this round even more interesting, Carlton is likely to bounce back after their poor showing last week against the Eagles. Also, Franklin is back and playing against the Pies in the match of the round.

Let’s see if the numbers can help …

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Ablett v. Fremantle

SF 2010: 119 SuperCoach points, 36 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 157 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 22 2009: 146 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 98 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 81 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals
Rd 6 2008: 62 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 90 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals

Average is 108 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: His last three games against the Dockers have yielded an average of 141 SuperCoach points with 35 disposals. He is averaging 144 over his six previous games this season. Fremantle used Rhys Palmer to tag Luke Power out of the game last week. Restricted him to 8 disposals. Ablett likely to cop a tag. But he is no Luke Power and should still score nicely

Swan v. Hawthorn

Rd 22 2010: 104 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 4 2010: 130 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 140 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 80 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals

Average is 109 SuperCoach points with 31 disposals.

Note: A solid recent record against the Hawks. Coming off a 33 disposal game with 133 SuperCoach points last week. However, had not scored over 100 in his previous four games. The question is, is the Swan of last year back?

Pendlebury v. Hawthorn

Rd 22 2010: 97...

Hi all,

Another great week for our teams, with Sandilands ruled out (so in hindsight I can get a tick on that one) for an extended break, and players of the ilk of Watson and Rioli coming down with hamstring #2.  Its enough for us all to pull the blanket up and say "no more".   But of course we get back in and go for another crack.

The good news is for each of Watson, Rioli and Sandilands there are viable sideways trades, which will be listed in the Best Buys.

Other than that my advice for this week, is to think about either conserving trades for the leagues finals (this is if you are in a great ladder position at the moment), or trade in additional coverage in terms of quality non-playing bench options.  I reckon a good handful of bench options could be more useful in the long run than conserving trades, but this theory may be proved wrong.   My theory is have 8 forwards with a gun forward-mid as the swing man between forward, mid and ruck (yeah I have Petrie-Tippett and you can too), as well as a gun defender.   Then you cover any bye with these guys, and any major outage is covered with guys who are at the next level like Lynch, I Smith or Hibberd.

More over the break...

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Best Buys

D: Suckling is still great value at about 400, with Newman just behind him.   Silvagni may end up being a good option to have in that D8 position, keep an eye out at 290k.   Shaw and Fisher have had their bye so must be considered more highly than those who have theirs to come.   On form, Fisher is absolutely smashing it, and will be refreshed by the bye.

M: Swan is the standout trade-in for Watson, just doing it a few weeks earlier than you would have.   For 32k you can switch.   In his absence Stanton is cheap, but no Bomber fans would go there, would they?   Nice cheap value options for those who want a steady M7 could be Corey, Ball, Bartel (a few weeks after he returns, e.g. Round 18 or so), Jones and even the General Hodge...

<a href="http://www.iscent.com.au/"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/iScent.com_.au_RGB.jpg">[/url]



Alright guys, Ive just pulled together this weeks winner of iScent. Looks like it was a tough week with the winning score coming in roughly 20 points less than last weeks.

This weeks winner was Charros, who took it out with a 2361, nice work mate!

rest over the break
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Now, with my laptop being crap, I have only just now gotten lockout unlocked, so if you want to get your team in for next week, go nuts!

Also, special mention to the weazel- 1st last week, 3rd this week- reckon you might have a knack at this game!

The full winning team is:

DEF: Murphy, Otten, Scotland, Deledio, Gibbs, Enright, Wood (Okeefe, McGovern, Webster)
MID: Swan, Thompson, Boyd, Ablett, Pendlebury, Nicholson (Simpkin, Twomey, Wanganeen)
RUC: Cox, Goldstein, McCulloch, Curnow
FWD: Fyfe, Higgins, Dahlhaus, Chapman, Harvey, Goodes, Giansiracusa (Von Bertouch, Callinan (73), Bucovaz

Looks like we can fit in a huge amount of premiums with our $10mil these days, with Dahlhauss 94 being paricularly good!

While here is the top ten for this round!


,
,,<td style="font-weight:bold;">Player
,,<td style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent&ladder=1&sort=score">Score[/url]
,,<td style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent&ladder=1&sort=total">Total[/url]
,

,,,<tr >
,,,<td >charros
,,,<td >2361
,,,<td >2361
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >BlueBeliever
,,,<td >2355
,,,<td >2355
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >weazel
,,,<td >2344
,,,<td >2344
,,

,,,,
,,,<td >deasend
,,,<td >2311
,,,<td >2311
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >barbs12
,,,<td >2291
,,,<td >2291
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >bgt2110
,,,<td >2272
,,,<td >2272
,,

,,,,<tr >
,,,<td >Tim
,,,<td >2260
,,,<td >2260
,,

,,,,<tr >...

<a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank"><img alt="image" border="0" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Clubdeal-logo.png" style="border-width: 0pt;border-style: solid;border: 0;" width="476">[/url]

Ive just run through the results of the <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] competition for round 14, and just like Santa would if he were running a competiton, I checked the timestamps once, then checked em twice.

Turns out that while the rounds best score, Goldsteins 164 wasnt picked, then next best was- and it was predicted to perfection.

So check over the break for the winners!
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The best pick for the weeks was Stowie, whos call of Matthew Pavlich for 155 was an exact hit! Well done mate.

Coming in second place was Elvs1, who was the only one to take a risk on Travis Cloke, predicting a score of 168 - off by 14 points.

For the third and final prize however, we had a close battle with 2 players putting in an entry for Ryan Griffen- one predicting a score of 160 and missing by 15, the other predicting 162 and missing by 17. So congratulations to torcida, who just snuck in front of the unlucky Hutch for the third prize, hopefully youll have some better luck this week.

Speaking of this week, lockout is opened up, so go and get youre tips in! Ive been talking to the good folk at ClubDeals and theyve been kind enough to put up another three $60 meal vouchers at Watermark Docklands for this weeks prize, so its definitely worth having a crack.

And dont forget, as a winner, youll need to sign up at <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] to collect your prize, and Ill email you the details of that shortly - but hey, just as an average punter, its well worth checking them out. There current deal which is up for just 40 more minutes is $240 surfing lessons for just $99- not too shabby if youve ever wanted to try it out!

Time for an exercise.  Lets say its the end of the year, and the votes are where theyre at today.  Using Centrebet odds (who dont offer multis, but are currently providing most votes per team odds), who would you take on?

My current order of "most confidence" in winning the most votes for there team, along with current odds,  is as follows:

1. B. Moloney $1.25
2. J. Watson $1.17
3. M. Boyd $1.38
4. G. Ablett $1.02
5. S. Thompson $1.60
6. J. Selwood $1.62
7. S. Mitchell $1.57
8. D. Martin $3.25, A. Goodes $2.20 &amp; M. Priddis $1.77
11. S. Black $3.50
12. S. Pendlebury $1.84
13. N. Dal Santo $3
14. T. Boak $2.15
15. M. Pavlich $1.63
16. T. Goldstein $34
17. M. Murphy $2.55

Lets delve more into this over the break:

<!--more-->Goldstein is offering massive odds (hard to ignore), but for mine, the NM vote can go to any of Goldstein (breakout year, little polling history), Wells/Swallow (career best years) or Harvey (3 very good games and gets most votes every year).  Too close to call, staying away.

Im also staying away from Carlton.  Murphy not paying enough odds, and Judd is well, Chris Judd.

So, to find a balance of beefy odds and near certainties, my 10 would be as follows:

B. Moloney, J. Watson, M. Boyd, S. Thompson, J. Selwood, A. Goodes, M. Priddis, D. Martin, S. Black and N. Dal Santo - paying a cool $695 to 1.  Or a lazy $69,500 to $100 .

Who would you pick?  But first, this weeks votes:

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawthorn v Essendon

TS:
3. G. Birchall (5)
2. S. Mitchell (17)
1. S. Savage (3)

Holey:
3. S. Mitchell (17)
2. L. Shiels (6)
1. I. Smith (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast

TS:
3. R. Griffen (8)
2. M. Boyd (18)
1. G. Ablett (11)

Holey:
3. R. Griffen (9)
2. M. Boyd (18)
1. G. Ablett (13)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Melbourne v Richmond

TS:
3. B. Moloney (16)
2. N. Jones (2)
1. J. Watts (2)

Holey:...

For the first time in a few weeks, we actually improved our ranking this round! We scored 2305, moving up about 1500 spots to be ranked 3,108th overall now... and it should be noted that we won all 5 league games in the process.

We made 1 trade last week: Darling to Chapman, which looks to be a good one so far, with Chappy making a ton, and Darling doing his job for us and no longer required. We mangaged to avoid any zeros - Richardson came on for Mzungu in the fwd line.

Our bench selections were fairly solid, but not perfect: Puopolo was our lowest scoring defender and was well selected on the pine; But Jacobs was on the bench in the mids, and we would have been 10 point sbetter off with him onfield instead of Heppell, but not much to worry about there really. In the mids, both Prestia and Iles outscored Judd, but we would have never started them over him, so no worries there; However, Prestia also outscored 4 of our forwards, including Krakouer by 10, and Richo by 25 - So best option would have been to have Mzungu on the mid bench, and Prestia on field in FWDs with Richo sticking to his planned role as emergency, rather than coming in late.

Our captain choice was ok...  GAJ was our pick, and you gotta be happy with a 120+ score from a cap, but he was only our 5th best scorer for the week, so it could have been better... but our VC was Boyd with only 106, so we gotta be glad he came 2nd in the vote and not 1st.

The bye may force our hand this week in regards to trades... We only have the one Eagle in Cox, but with Vardy and Keefe not playing recently, we dont have a backup at the ready... unless of course, Vardy has had enough rest (quite possible), or the pies look to bring in Keefe before Jolly (not likely).

As usual, all the individual players scores will be over the break.

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<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2">



1. <a...

And so ends another round, only 10 more to go before we see who reigns supreme!

The biggest, or at least tallest news of the round is Sandi, rushed back a little early, early reports have him out anywhere from a month, to the rest of the season- gotta feel for the guy! (And his coaches).

As for the full review, sadly, due to a computer who constantly decides to randomly power down the display for hours at a time, we wont be having one this week as I have no idea when its going to shut itself down again- anyone got any suggestions?

I have a new pc arriving next week though, which means the future is all good though! Just need the laptop to play ball with me tonight so I can get the stats up!

Anyways, let us know how youve gone, it looks like a pretty high scoring week!

EDIT: yep, thats what I would have said if we didnt have a review! However, BlueBeliever has been an absolute trooper and stood up to the plate! Check out his review over the break.

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Hawthorn vs Essendon
Result: Hawthron by 65, 23.8.146 to 12.9.81

On Friday night the Hawks took on an Essendon side boasting what many said to be the best line-up of the year for them (and a few tipped the Bombers), only for the Hawks to run out a very comfortable 65 point victors. After a decent start the Bombers suffered an injury to the recently-returned Jobe Watson, seriously hurting his SuperCoaches in the process, and a seven goal blitz in the second quarter to take it out of reach early. For Bombers fans the news only get worse with other injuries to David Myers (3 weeks) and Sam Lonergan (season). Unfortunately for the Hawks it didn’t all go their way either, with injuries to both Cyril Rioli and Brad Sewell set to further test their depth. Rioli didn’t look in too much trouble post-game, but will still be one to keep an eye on this week. Highlight of this one for me was Isaac Smith’s continuation of form, and boy does this kid look like a jet! 112 and...

There have got to be a fistful of coaches seriously questioning their decision to hang onto Sandi right now! On the upside, it would seem that just having the big man on the field has been enough to cause his team mates to lift with Fyfe, Pavlich and Broughton showing a real return to form with 125, 155 and 145 respectively.

A few of the popular rookies seem to be running out of steam half way through the season but I Smith has certainly been a bright spot for me this week!

Swan has rewarded the faithful knocking out a 133 in his first game back whereas Rioli just cant seem to catch a break this season with yet another injury (and another injury affected score for those have stuck with him this year).

So hows your team running thus far?

Are we happy or hurting?

Im getting this up early tonight as Im heading off to the game tonight! Heres hoping we get a good Bombers win!!

Dont forget to get your entries into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent" target="_blank">iScent[/url] and <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=clubDeals" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] comps!!

So, hows it looking for ya? Any donuts in the forward line? Or your trades going to save the day?

The statistics below show two clear captain’s choices for the round. (By the way, due to some demand, I have now added scores from finals as well). Unfortunately, one of those players is Franklin (who averaged a massive 140 SuperCoach points in 6 games against the Bombers with just over 6 goals per game).

The other player is …

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Ablett v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 3 2011: 141 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 154 SuperCoach points, 39 disposals
QF 2009: 131 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 122 SuperCoach points, 40 disposals
Rd 9 2009: 149 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
PF 2008: 116 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2007: 127 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 97 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 130 SuperCoach points with 34 disposals.

Note: Who missed the Ablett train this year? Is it too late to get him? He has averaged 148 over his past 5 games this season. These 5 games have all been losses (by an average of 53 points). Can still score heavily in a losing team. Has averaged 139 SuperCoach points with 36 possessions in his past 5 games against the Bulldogs. (And he plays Fremantle next week – in his 3 most recent games against the Dockers he averaged 141 SuperCoach points with 35 disposals).

Pendlebury v. Sydney

Rd 13 2010: 97 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 77 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals
Rd 21 2008: 147 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 75 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
EF 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 21 2007: 82 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 109 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals

Average is 100 SuperCoach points with 21 disposals.

Note: Not the best record against the Swans. Only cracked the ton in 3 out of the 7 games. Coming off a bye. Had averaged 135 SuperCoach points in his past four games. Been consistently good this season (only three scores below 120).

Swan v. Sydney

Rd 13 2010: 101...