TooSerious

Im getting this up early tonight as Im heading off to the game tonight! Heres hoping we get a good Bombers win!!

Dont forget to get your entries into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent" target="_blank">iScent[/url] and <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=clubDeals" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] comps!!

So, hows it looking for ya? Any donuts in the forward line? Or your trades going to save the day?

The statistics below show two clear captain’s choices for the round. (By the way, due to some demand, I have now added scores from finals as well). Unfortunately, one of those players is Franklin (who averaged a massive 140 SuperCoach points in 6 games against the Bombers with just over 6 goals per game).

The other player is …

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Ablett v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 3 2011: 141 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 154 SuperCoach points, 39 disposals
QF 2009: 131 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 122 SuperCoach points, 40 disposals
Rd 9 2009: 149 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
PF 2008: 116 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2007: 127 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 97 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 130 SuperCoach points with 34 disposals.

Note: Who missed the Ablett train this year? Is it too late to get him? He has averaged 148 over his past 5 games this season. These 5 games have all been losses (by an average of 53 points). Can still score heavily in a losing team. Has averaged 139 SuperCoach points with 36 possessions in his past 5 games against the Bulldogs. (And he plays Fremantle next week – in his 3 most recent games against the Dockers he averaged 141 SuperCoach points with 35 disposals).

Pendlebury v. Sydney

Rd 13 2010: 97 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 77 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals
Rd 21 2008: 147 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 75 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
EF 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 21 2007: 82 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 109 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals

Average is 100 SuperCoach points with 21 disposals.

Note: Not the best record against the Swans. Only cracked the ton in 3 out of the 7 games. Coming off a bye. Had averaged 135 SuperCoach points in his past four games. Been consistently good this season (only three scores below 120).

Swan v. Sydney

Rd 13 2010: 101...

What the SuperCoach gods give, the SuperCoach gods take away, with rucks Sandi and Smith coming back, it looks like its the guys that have been covering for them thats been given the cut- Mumford, Vardy, Gawn and Griffin are all, pardon the pun, Gawn!

On the plus side, we have seen the call up of Adelaide DPP rookie, Ian Callinan- whos been named ON THE FIELD! None of this extended bench bidness for him! We also see Richardson being named on the extended bench, heres hoping he finally gets a call up.

And finally, he was never out, so hes not an in, but Bartel has been named, though in all honesty, I wouldnt be suprised to see a late change down at catland.

INS: Smith, Swallow, Howard, Jamar, Thomas, Swan, Sandilands, Callinan, Richardson
OUTS: Franklin, Harris, Liberatore, Gawn, Mumford, A. Johnson, Buckley, Griffin, Clark, Vardy
Extended Bench: Knights, Curnow, Richardson

Full teams are below
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Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Josh Gibson, Thomas Murphy
HB: Paul Puopolo, Jordan Lisle, Grant Birchall
C: Liam Shiels, Sam Mitchell, Shane Savage
HF: Isaac Smith, David Hale, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Michael Osborne
Foll: Max Bailey, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Chance Bateman, Brendan Whitecross, Luke Breust, Matt Suckling
Emg: Will Sierakowski, Riley Milne, Kyle Cheney
In: Chance Bateman, Brent Guerra
Out: Lance Franklin (Suspension), Rick Ladson (Groin)

Essendon
B: Mark McVeigh, Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hibberd
HB: Dyson Heppell, Tayte Pears, Heath Hocking
C: Brent Prismall, Jobe Watson, David Zaharakis
HF: Angus Monfries, Michael Hurley, Brent Stanton
F: Sam Lonergan, Patrick Ryder, Leroy Jetta
Foll: David Hille, David Myers, Ben Howlett
I/C: Andrew Welsh, Alwyn Davey, Tom Bellchambers, Jake Melksham
Emg: Kyle Reimers, Jake Carlisle, Travis Colyer
In: David Hille, Andrew Welsh, Alwyn Davey
Out: Cale Hooker (Hamstring), Kyle Hardingham (Suspension), Stewart Crameri (Soreness)

Gold Coast Suns
B:...

So Roughead only lasted the one injury riddled apearance for us, as we traded him out last week for Stevie J. We made another sideways trade last week as well - turning Selwood into Boyd. Both trades will probably end up good ones, but havent got off to the most magnificent start - but it obviously could have been worse.

In Round 13, we scored 2045, which was not great, but we didnt drop as far as i thought we would: We are now ranked 4,721st oa, dropping 882 spots this week.

Our captain choice of Ablett was a great call this week; however our benches were not so good. Well, we got Prestia and Jacobs right - as they were our bottom two scorers and both on the bench - but Otten on the bench in defense was not a great choice, as he pumped out a 131 - our 2nd highest individual score of the round! When I was updating the team, I could have used my vote to change it around and have Otten on the field, which I was soooo close to doing, as I was surprised so many people voted to have him on the bench after tonning up last week...  but it would have meant that a player in another line would have been on the bench with less votes than Otten, and I didnt think that was entirely democractic or fair in this format, so I went with the 3 players that had the most votes and sat them on the pine.

Over the break are all our players scores for round 13:::::::

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<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2">



1. <a href="/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">114



2. <a href="/player/130">Scotland[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">80



3. <a href="/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">84



4. <a href="/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">124



5. <a href="/player/202">Heppell[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">60



6. <a href="/player/241">Broughton[/url] (DEF)
<td...

<a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank"><img alt="image" border="0" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Clubdeal-logo.png" style="border-width: 0pt;border-style: solid;border: 0;" width="476">[/url]
Welcome to our all new competition, the <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au">ClubDeals[/url] pick the best!

The rules are simple, 16 teams are playing and its your job to tell us who the highest scorer will be, and what you think they will score.
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,Closest to the pin wins, however if there is a draw, it will be determined by who got their entry in first.
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,Now for the prize, this changes on a week by week basis, but for this week, the top 3 players who choose correctly will win themselves a $60 meal voucher at Watermark Docklands.
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,The terms and conditions are as follows: You must be signed up to TooSerious to play, to claim your prize if you win, youll need to sign up at <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url] and finally, for any prize, youll have to abide to any of the conditions on the voucher (ie- weekdays only, that kind of thing!)
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,So <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=clubDeals">head over to the comp page[/url], make youre selection, then check out <a href="http://clubdeals.com.au" target="_blank">ClubDeals[/url]- they have a different deal every day and really, theyre actually quite good!

Todays deal is a Massage and Physiotherapy/Pilates package worth $160, for the low low price of just $39, which is pretty damn good!

Just working on getting the newsletter out now! Weve got the usual run of articles including one focusing on the latest round of the U18s. Weve also got an exclusive deal from Sportsbet to offer you guys with up to $200 in freebets which is pretty exciting! and were launching a new comp through it today (but there will also be a post on that later in the day)

To make sure you get it, make sure that youve ticked that you want to recieve newsltters in your profile (click [Edit] under your avatar and then scroll down and check the box for newsletters) or, if youre not already registered, <a href="http://tooserious.net/signup">register now[/url] and check that box when youre signing up!

Whilst were here though, I thought Id ask you guys for some feedback about how the newsletters been going.

(more over the break)
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What have you guys thought so far? Have you liked the articles in there or is there something else youd like to see included?

The idea going forward is that well cover the U18s now, creating a decent resource you can draw on for next year, but over the offseason, Ill be putting in weekly crib notes for your research with training reports and trading and all the other fun stuff that goes on after the grand final is finished.

As we near the end of the season, Im also planning of getting out a few articles on the then-upcoming Brownlow, which as we saw last year, was a very profitable exercise!

So drop in, let me know how its working out for you all.

Well, if Sandilands returns this week, this page, though maybe giving a few hints has also given a few pieces of dangerous advice!

The mea culpa of the past few weeks - the advice to trade Sandilands may just prove flawed (it was always a line ball thing), the Bartel trade from last week is a shocker, and never go the captains that I select, because Im clearly pushing the envelope rather than going for the tried, true thanks for the 130 in the bank option.

I didnt go Bartel in the end, through good luck rather than good management, and it worked out. He could so easily have smoked a 140 and things would be different for lots of the top 100 teams.  But he didnt.   Sandilands could return, but I still think he will miss this one, then play a restricted, maybe subbed role next week, and be full capacity in Round 17 (against Mumford).  I have no evidence on this.

So everything in Best Buys needs to be taken with a grain of salt.   The good news is, in general, if you put a trade option to the community, they will get it right.  And so the value of this discussion board remains.

Over the break, I have a few short thoughts, but mainly just the Best Buys and AAs.

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The thought for the week is bye management.   If you need to trade someone in, think about if they have already had their bye.   Because if they havent, you might be throwing away 50-60 points.   Over the course of 10 games, its now become a significant 6 points per game.  So yeah, think about waiting or getting the good options as they come available.  You might not get the gilt edged champ, but yours can be running to the finish line.  Always your call, but if the champ misses an extra, you are really up the creek (ala Bartel).

Best Buys- and Im really looking at premiums here:
D:  Suckling and Enright are still solid options.  Robert Murphy is there for those who like a FD swinger.   Adcock is very cheap but his injury situation clouds the issue.  ...

Ive spent some time doing the analysis.   And its time for another issue of Beat the Best.

This time, unlike others, I do honestly believe the front crew are far enough away to ward off defeat.   Im almost prepared to say that those outside the top 10 are gone - but Im not considering that they can still make up enough points through trades to be about where I think 10th is.   But they would still have to pull some almighty risks to win, because the aim of the game is to have the most points at Round 24, not to have the best team!

So, its been brutal the last couple of weeks, but like the carnivorous Contador before him, The Cheeky Boys has run off with the prize, leaving all of the other chasing competitors gasping for breath.   Theres no Lance Armstrong in the chasing crew, nor any Schleck brothers.   All you can see down the road are bruised and almost beaten Cadel Evans.   With no support team, but knowing the time trial is soon, and maybe thats where a few seconds can be made up.

But just like chasing Contador, its often a futile exercise, because just as good as that Spanish conquistador is at bashing up the hills, hes equally talented on the flat.   For mine, I reckon Cheeky isnt home, but my goodness hes close to it.   And thats why this week is a week the chasing pack must fight together and bring him down a notch.

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In doing the analysis for the above, Ive noted the top 10 teams (plus I had a quick peek at Lings Bandits) and they are within 500 points from the lead (or in the case of Cheeky - in it).

Cruical points I think are the ability to get cover for the premiums when they take a rest (enforced or not), how many premiums have already had their bye (and could therefore conceivably mean points come back into play), and theres been a brief look at whether the team can stand multiple outs in a week.

From here the keys I see are:

This week Cheeky loses Fisher, Goddard, Adcock.  He has a complete spud on the...

Can the second best midfielder in a team with the Brownlow Medal?  Generally yes, when your best is Judd....maybe?

Marc Murphy has gone from being a consistently good player to a consistently great player in the space of one season.  His expected 2 votes on the weekend sees him equal 1st with those that are eligible - I have him now polling in 9 games, without one BOG.  A couple of those turn in to three on the night, and hed be in a very good position come the conclusion of round 13.

Looking around the teams, Mitchell has overtaken Franklin, and now has an extra game up his sleeve.  NM is becoming very close, with any of Swallow, Wells and Harvey a chance.  Fantastic odds on Harvey at the moment considering his history (most NM votes every year going as far back as I can remember), + could have 3 BOGs to date.

Dustin Martin is also pulling away from both Cotchin and Deledio, although hes not there yet.  Youd think Priddis is nearly home now too.

This weeks votes over the page:

<!--more-->[span style="text-decoration: underline">Bulldogs v Crows

TS:
3 - R. Murphy (3)
2 - R. Griffen (5)
1 - D. Giansiracusa (1)

Holey:
3 - R. Griffen (6)
2 - R. Murphy (2)
1 - D. Giansiracusa (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawks v Suns

TS:
3 - S. Mitchell (15)
2 - S. Savage (2)
1 - G. Ablett (10)

Holey:
3 - S. Mitchell (14)
2 - G. Ablett (12)
1 - S. Savage (3)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Roos v Bombers

TS:
3 - B. Harvey (8)
2 - B. Rawlings (2)
1 - A. Swallow (9)

Holey:
3 - B. Harvey (8)
2 - A. Swallow (9)
1 - D. Petrie (5)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Cats v Saints

TS:
3 - N. Dal Santo (7)
2 - J. Corey (2)
1 - S. Fisher (4)

Holey:
3 - C. Ling (6)
2 - N. Dal Santo (7)
1 - J. Corey (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Tigers v Lions

TS:
3 - D. Martin (10)
2 - T. Cotchin (8)
1 - M. Leuenberger (1)

Holey:
3 - D. Martin (10)
2 - T. Cotchin (6)
1 - M....

I thought why not raise a thread to share the dumb things weve done each round. I will add mine to the comments below. Though I managed to scrape out a score over 2000 this weekend, I felt cursed when my ipod on random kicked out Dumb Things by Paul Kelly...again! So I just gutted it out and knew that it was a week for getting kicked to the curb. So, Ive already seen some classic "DTs" in the review thread, lets have a laugh at the game of Supercoach in this thread!