TooSerious

My guess is...hurting. Or at least, my team is with Bartels 4 and Roos effort or lack there of.

With Stevie J, Buddy, JRoo, Matty Boyd and Goddard all posting sub-100 scores and quite a few of the popular rookies whove been pulled in to cover the many outs proving why theyre warming the bench rather than occupying space on the field, the pain is going to be felt all over. There have been a couple of bright spots in Ablett, Fisher, Sam Mitchell an Higgins rewarding the faithful but, from what Ive seen an absent some miraculous turn around tomorrow, the par score this week is going to be low.

On the upside, weve seen in past weeks that the low scoring weekends offer opportunity for those whove played their cards right to really charge up the ladder on the overall.

So how are you doing? Riding the storm or bullet ridden? Are you winning your leagues or is it too close to call?

Alright, were getting close to lock out- any last minute breaking news?

Also, lockout will kick in for the iScent comp as well, so if you plan on winning yourself (or the missus) a lovely perfume package, <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent">Get your team entered...now! [/url]

With the absence of a number of popular captain’s choices, I suspect that the choice this week comes down to a small number. Swan, Pendlebury, Sandilands, Selwood and Mundy are all out. The popular choices will be Ablett against Hawthorn down in Tasmania, anyone from Hawthorn against the Suns and Cox in a home game against Port Adelaide. Let’s see how the numbers look …

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Ablett v. Hawthorn

Rd 15 2010: ,79 SuperCoach points, ,32 disposals
Rd 2 2010: ,128 SuperCoach points, ,38 disposals
Rd 17 2009: ,139 SuperCoach points, ,33 disposals
Rd 1 2009: ,162 SuperCoach points, ,35 disposals
Rd 4 2007: ,113 SuperCoach points, ,17 disposals
Rd 22 2006: ,107 SuperCoach points,,27 disposals
Rd 3 2006: ,61 SuperCoach points, ,13 disposals

Average is 113 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

Note: Take out the scores under 100 and his average jumps to 130 SuperCoach points and 30 disposals. Has been in dominant, and league leading, form over the past four rounds averaging 149 SuperCoach points. Has shown he has the ability to get huge scores even when the Suns are thumped.

Cox v. Port Adelaide

Rd 2 2011: ,129 SuperCoach points, ,21 disposals
Rd 20 2010: ,126 SuperCoach points, ,23 disposals
Rd 2 2010: ,41 SuperCoach points, ,7 disposals
Rd 2 2009: ,116 SuperCoach points, ,21 disposals
Rd 5 2008: ,95 SuperCoach points, ,19 disposals
Rd 15 2007: ,60 SuperCoach points, ,15 disposals
Rd 12 2006: ,85 SuperCoach points,,15 disposals
Rd 10 2005: ,42 SuperCoach points, ,17 disposals

Average is 87 SuperCoach points with 17 disposals.

Note: A good recent record against the Power but a well below average against them before that. Poor record due to the matchup against Brogan/Lade in their prime. Has been in consistent form this year – averaging 126 over his past seven games.

Judd v. Sydney

Rd 6 2011: ,154 SuperCoach points, ,33 disposals
Rd 16 2010: ,86 SuperCoach points, ,28 disposals
Rd 16 2009: ,107 SuperCoach points,...

So, the teams are out and thankfully, there aint too much to worry about with the extended benches. Also, just the one surprise out in D. Swallow- so your considerations from throughout the week are still applicable.

That said, it still doesnt make covering the midfield outs- and Smith any easier!

Also, word is that Montagna it still a good chance to be a late withdrawal, so keep an eye on that!

The big ins and outs are:
INS: Cooney, Gilbee, Bailey, Hale, I. Smith, Bellchambers, Bewick, Mumford
OUTS: Howard, Guerra, Roughead, Z. Smith, D. Swallow, Selwood, Mundy, Hille, Adcock, Batchelor
Extended Bench: Evans, Nicholson, Palmer, Barlow

Full teams over the break
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Western Bulldogs
B: Liam Picken, Tom L. Williams, Easton Wood
HB: Robert Murphy, Dale Morris, Lindsay Gilbee
C: Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd, Justin Sherman
HF: Shaun Higgins, Liam Jones, Callan Ward
F: Luke Dahlhaus, William Minson, Daniel Giansiracusa
Foll: Ben Hudson, Ryan Griffen, Adam Cooney
I/C: Ed Barlow, Nathan Djerrkura, Thomas Liberatore, Jayden Schofield
Emg: Sam Reid, Christian Howard, Lukas Markovic
In: Adam Cooney, Lindsay Gilbee, Jayden Schofield
Out: Brennan Stack (Hamstring), James Mulligan (Calf), Christian Howard
New: Jayden Schofield (East Fremantle)

Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Luke Thompson
HB: Michael Doughty, Andy Otten, Brad Symes
C: Matthew Jaensch, Scott Thompson, Nathan van Berlo
HF: Chris Knights, Ricky Henderson, Rory Sloane
F: Jack Gunston, Kurt Tippett, Matthew Wright
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Richard Douglas, Patrick Dangerfield
I/C: Bernie Vince, Jared Petrenko, Shaun McKernan, Christopher Schmidt
Emg: Ivan Maric, Aidan Riley, Richard Tambling
In: Ricky Henderson, Christopher Schmidt
Out: Brent Reilly (Knee), James Sellar

Hawthorn
B: Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Paul Puopolo
HB: Matt Suckling, Ryan Schoenmakers, Thomas Murphy
C: Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Shane Savage
HF: Shaun Burgoyne, Lance Franklin,...

Hi all...Yep its Duck Season as our good friend Ducky has got chopped for his intentional (not reckless) forearm to the ear of Hair Hat.

But what does it mean in Supercoach?  Main issues of course being the midfield malaise (Selwood, Swan, Pendlebury, Mundy, Montagna...) and the defence coverage (if say Adcock goes down it exacerbates the situation).   Read on for my take on it all...

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So what to do?  Trade or stick?  Well its all come down to a shocker of a situation.   For those holding some of the more popular midfield options, its not looking pretty.   My take on the situation for mids missing this week...

Pendlebury - BUY/HOLD
Swan - HOLD
Selwood - SELL
Mundy - SELL
Montagna - HOLD, but if gone this week and you cop a donut SELL

Its not great though.  People are saying, yeah but I can MPP Gibbs into my midfield, its still strong.   Yeah what rot.  It means from your 22 out goes Selwood and in comes someone like Stanley or Luke Thompson.   For a week you might consider it, but in the long run, forget that!   You are probably better off giving Selwood the flick.

Who to is the bigger question for the Selwood/Mundy holders out there.

Im thinking the answer to this one lies closest to home.

Now honestly...those without Ablett have a simple answer.  Id almost say the same about Boyd as well.   Two very solid options who can do the job.

If you dont have Pendlebury, its a tough one, because a straight swap between Selwood and Pendlebury would net you the best scoring player.  Thing is the bye strikes at the worst situation.   If you do this, you pretty much cost yourself at least 50 points, which may not be gained back over the concluding rounds of the year by Pendles v (say Ablett/Boyd).

So, scratching around, you could look on value, by which you have to consider Scott Thompson (though hes in a patch of average form), and then theres more risky moves like Moloney or Mitchell.

Ive taken the time to do...

We had a busy week last week! with many close decisions in our polls.

We made 2 trades last week, with mixed results...  Sandi to Vardy will come in handy this week with Zach Smith being rested; but Matera to Roughead hasnt worked out so well! Poor Roughie! He had been in such great form - its a shame to see him go down to injury. And even more of a shame that we had just traded him in... Looks as though we will be getting rid of him imediately too.

We scored 2116 for the round which wasnt so bad, considering the low scores seen around the place, but it wasnt enough to even hold our position, dropping 580 spots to now be ranked 3,839th overall.

Our captain poll was one that was very close, with Pendles just beating GAJ. As it turns out, both would have been good choices; but we picked the worst of the two, with our cap - Pendles - being outscored by GAJ by 10 points.

Iles and Vardy were good bench choices; however all other scoring benchers played better than many of our starters - so in hindsight, we didnt have a great week in this regard.

Over in the Forums, we have already decided how many trades we are doing this week and which players are departing our team. Later today Ill get a poll up about what players we will bring in; however in the mean time, continue to add suggestions in the forum thread, so that i know which players to include in the poll.

Over the break are our individual players scores for Round 12:::::::::

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<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2">



1. <a href="/player/130">Scotland[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">87



2. <a href="/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">97



3. <a href="/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">143



4. <a href="/player/176">Shaw[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">60



5. <a href="/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td...

The <a href="http://www.iscent.com.au/">iScent[/url] comp is back, but this year, its bigger and better than ever.
,


,If you were here last year, youd remember how the iScent comp worked- but Im here to tell you that everything has changed!
,


,The competition.
,


,SilverBack has made quite a name for himself with his TotW post, in short what he does- is with a $10 million budget, posts what would have been the best score possible for the week.
,


,Now the iScent comp offers you the chance to do the same, without the unnessassary risk of setting up new SuperCoach accounts and the subsequent possible ban that comes with it.
,


,In short, enter in a squad and if your team can beat the rest, then you win yourself a prize!
,


,Theres no emergencies, no vice captains- just you, 22 players on the field, 11 jobbers on the bench and a captain.
,


,The Prize
,


,Over the next 4 weeks (Rounds 13 through to 16), the highest team will win one of the following
,


,Joop Thrill EDP 50ml 2 piece Gift Set for Women

,Thierry Mugler Angel Violette EDP 25ml 3 piece Gift Set for Women

,Juicy Couture Dirty English EDT 100ml 2 piece Gift Set for Men

,Paris Hilton Heir EDT 100ml 4 piece Gift Set for Men
,


,Of course, its first in best dressed with the wins, but hey, they are all pretty delicious prizes, so <a href="http://tooserious.net/competitions.php?competition=iScent">get in there[/url] and enter your team! - And if you need a little help, dont forget to check out the <a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">ticker[/url]

A few weeks ago, I was lucky to get the opportunity to ask Karl Jackson, one of the statisticians at Champion Data a few questions about some of the finer points of this game that we all love.

So tune in over the break for a little glimpse behind the CD Curtains...

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We all know that a game-winning goal kicked at the death of a close game is worth a premium, but how does the weighting work in other situations? For instance, in a blowout (Think Ess v GC), do the actions from the first quarter receive a premium? What about a game that is tight until half time that blows out in the third?

KJ: The weighting is applied to everything that happens within a game. To put it basically, the more likely it is that the result of the match is going to change, the higher the weighting is. This works in both ways – as time goes on in tight games, a player’s actions become more important because the game is up for grabs, but as time goes on in blowout games, events are weighted down because the game is moving closer and closer to “junk time”.

We follow along with the quarter time scores posted on the HUN and know well about the 3300 rule, but why is it that it appears that 1/3 of the 3300 seems to be allocated at the quarter time break?

KJ: There’s no hard and fast rule about how many points to allocate at the end of the first quarter. There is so long left in the game that it would be folly to guess how it will be played out. From half time onwards we’ve got a better idea of how the game has/will be played out so that’s when the standardised scores are used.

If a handball or kick is received on the bounce by a teammate, is it still effective?

KJ: If the teammate was put under unnecessary pressure because of the disposal dropping short it will be called ineffective, but if it hasn’t put him under pressure it will still be called effective.

What about a dropped mark? Does the kicker still get an...

When we see the Supercoach leader score one of the best scores of the round, its probably time that most of the other 380 thousand teams start to focus on leagues (if they havent already).  It does need to be noted that there are obviously still some of us that are (to borrow a line from Simonoz) too far away to actually challenge for the top spot, but still too close to actually throw in the towell. My mrs is in this boat - being ranked 200th is close enough to keep hoping,  but realisticaly too far away... still gotta keep trying though. However that is less than 1% of teams that can still challenge the likes of Dirty Whorks and Impromptu for the title, so Im guessing the majority of us are focusing on our leagues now - and hopefully this writeup can be of interest and assist us to take out a league title or two...   or 3 or 5!

When aiming for a league victory, there are many factors that need to be taken into consideration when choosing the last couple of premium spots in your team - I reckon moreso than when aiming for overall. This has already been explored in one of the  TS Extras a few weeks back, and also in a round-about way in the Best Buys from week to week. I will now add to this over the break, where I will outline a few things to consider from here on in when deciding who the final upgrades should be when your focus is on your leagues.

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Where are you on the ladder?

The answer to this question is  fundamental as it allows you to prioritise all the other aspects outline below. For example, if you are comfortably in the top 4, having a Geelong player who is on leave for Semi Final weekend isnt as much of a worry as it would be if you are fighting to get into the 8; and if you are holding up the ladder, having players from teams on a multi-bye weekend may be a priority. This will be explored more later.

The Ticker

Everyone should be well aware of the Ticker by now. Its an amazing feature of this site...

So we have finally hit the half way mark of the 2011 supercoach season. This is your opportunity to tell everyone how you are faring. Either gloat about how awesome you are going or go on a good old fashioned rant about how poor its been to date.
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Ranking: Cmon we don’t judge people in these parts.

Trades Left: Have you burnt all your trades or been saving them for a rainy day?

Pre-Lockout: Which players were you tossing up between and now regretting or loving you picked.

Trades Regretted: Which trades do you seriously regret doing? Which ones backfired in a major way.

Best Trades: Whether it was trading Goddard or Riewoldt out before their price fall early or which players went bang after you traded them in.

Goals for 2nd half: What are your goals for the 2nd half of the year? Have you given up on overall and just concentrating on league bragging rights? Have you given up completely and have started your 2012 research already.

Leagues: How are your leagues ranked? Particularly your TS leagues, Id love to hear how they are all going!!