TooSerious

So, were taking our firsting outing while accomidating the first of the super-byes, so its even more important that this week our coverage plays. Lets take a quick look at the big INs and OUTs.

INS: Mitchell, Rioli, Mackie, Pedersen
OUTS: Morton, Connors, Jolly, Thornton, Watson, Duncan, Kornes, Irons
Extended Bench: Prestia, Palmer, Lower, Atley, Pedersen

Mitchell and Rioli will be a welcome site for coaches, as will Pederson who weve been assured will play this week- looks like itll be time to move on him next week, so if youre still carrying a little dead-weight in the back line (Hi Hibberd), then fear not cause a little salvation is at hand if he can keep his form up.

Probably the biggest ouches considering the timing of it will be Duncan and Irons, with some solid teams sitting out this round, these two added in could be the straw which breaks the camels back! Not to mention Prestia, Lower and Atley sitting on an extended bench.

Good luck everyone, and may your donuts be chocolate covered and non-existent.

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Richmond v Collingwood
MCG – Fri Apr 15, 7:40pm

Richmond
B: Chris Newman, David Astbury, Reece Conca
HB: Brett Deledio, Will Thursfield, Jake Batchelor
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Jake King, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg
F: Bradley Helbig, Jack Riewoldt, Bachar Houli
Foll: Angus Graham, Daniel Jackson, Nathan Foley

I/C: Matthew White, Robin Nahas, Dylan Grimes, Brad Miller
Emg: Shane Tuck, Matt Dea, Ben Nason

In: Will Thursfield, Brad Miller
Out: Daniel Connors (Leg), Mitch Morton

Collingwood
B: Heath Shaw, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Heritier O’Brien, Ben Reid, Nick Maxwell
C: Andrew Krakouer, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Scott Pendlebury
F: Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown, Travis Cloke
Foll: Cameron Wood, Dane Swan, Alan Didak

I/C: Leon Davis, Ben Johnson, Sharrod Wellingham, Jarryd Blair
Emg: Brad Dick, Tyson Goldsack,...

Welcome to another edition of Best Buys.

There arent too many people looking to throw trades around as this is the first of five "league byes", and the first of three in succession.   So the question is, do you bother trading in one or any of these rounds?

If youre going for leagues, one could quite easily say "no trades" for each of these games, but that stands against logic, which dictates that the sooner you get a quality side out on the park, the sooner you can lock away wins in the league and ensure youre not scrambling for the top 8.  To my mind, this means that you can wait and sit out the Round 16 and 19 byes without having to make structural changes to your team.

We all know were in competitive leagues here, where to be off the pace early in the year can be terminal, as you find yourself trading just to keep pace.

So my general advice is avoid trading unless its either to bring in a cash cow, or to do the downgrade-upgrade switch.  Or of course the old Long Term Injury (LTI) factor.

One thing I do stress to do is dont run from your pre-selected premiums at the start of the year.  Even sideways trading these guys can come unstuck.   The thing is we still arent certain of which teams will be the best and which teams will struggle this year.   St Kilda is one team that has had an awful run, but they can quite easily come back to the forefront.  For people to say that we could have already settled the final 8 by now is madness.

Thats why checking out the ticker is always a great move, as you can plan your trades around a good patch of games.  But anyway, the advice on the rest of this weeks Best Buys, well thats over the break.

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Who do I need to think about getting in my side this week?

If you need a ruck cow, Zac Smith is one to consider.   He has a hugely negative (-100) break even this week, and should provide solid backup for Sandilands and Cox in their league byes in Round 5 and 6.  ...

Getting off to a good start goes a long way to taking out the Brownlow medal.  Cooney, Ablett and Judd all polled 5, 6 &amp; 9 votes respectively in their first three games when they most recently took out the award, so already we can start to make some predictions for this year.

Swan, Watson and Goodes are the three leaders when looking at the combined TS/Holey predictions, with both camps having Swan on 6, and the latter two with 5 or 6 depending on which tally you are following closer.

Swan looks to have taken his game to another level this year, and whilst quieter and less influential than the first two games, he was probably in the best 4-5 players on the ground which will give him a chance.  Remembering he finished 3rd on 24 votes last year, and with Ablett likely to drop away somewhat, he doesn’t need to improve a great deal to get the medal he deserved last year (just seeing if Ben is still out there somewhere...Judd is as worthy a winner as any).  Swan is currently the favourite at $6.

Watson has played two great games now in what looks to be a far improved team.  He polled 16 votes in a team that won just 7 games last year, so his fortunes will likely be linked closely of that to how far the Bombers have actually progressed.  The signs are bright at the moment, and the punters agree with him now moved up to third place behind last year’s winner at $11.

And finally to Goodes.  After a slow second half in round 1, the dual medallist has bounced back with two very impressive games.  We all know he is an umpire favourite, and early money on him wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world with him sitting at equal 7th in the betting at $17.

This week’s votes over the break:<!--more-->

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Carlton

TS:
3 – J. Blair (3)
2 – C. Judd (4)
1 – D. Swan (6)

Holey:
3 – J. Blair (3)
2 – H. Shaw (2)
1 – D. Swan (6)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Western...

After last two weeks predictions of Meataxe and Snowdogs taking top spot the next week, Im not sure who will get the kiss of life from this article.

Needless to say, the strongest teams prevail when the chips are down, and for Snowdogs to have been in the top 3 last week without Selwood so much as firing a shot, it stood to reason that when he returned with a bang, that this side would take the lead.

Heres the current leading team, last weeks P3 Snowdogs:

DEF: Enright, Gibbs, Goddard, Deledio, Grimes, Lower, Duigan (Otten, Guthrie, Buckley)
MID: Swan, Pendlebury, Judd, Selwood, Curnow, Liberatore (Savage, Irons, Wallis)
RUC: Cox, Sandilands (Keefe, Charman)
FWD:  Franklin, Higgins, Pavlich, Hurley, Rioli, Tapscott, Darling (Krakouer, Richardson, Matera)

Interesting team.  Analysis to come after the break.

<!--more-->The first things that stand out:

Defence has a 5-0-5 structure rather than 4-0-6.  This has led to a bit better structure possibly, but leaves open the issue of underperforming backline rookies to upgrade later.  I see Buckley and Guthrie as issues going forward here.
Midfield is strong.  Very strong having the three best rookies.  Should be a full-strength mid collection before long.  Irons in danger of the axe, but the rest are legitimate team members.
Rucks are the top combination, but without backup this could get ugly in Round 5/6 not to mention if Sandi misses this week.
Forwards has Hurley as a risk, Higgins and Rioli have starred as midpricers, and no Nick Riewoldt to start the year is a definite surprise.  Could take a few trades getting him in though the advantage of not having him flows nicely in R4.

I see the big weaknesses as being in the backline and ruck rookies over the next few weeks when the coverage is critical.  Thats why I can see this team slinking back through the ranks and being maybe a top 50 side at the end but not being there at the pointy end.   I can see this week as being a time for...

On Twitter, Walesy mentioned lamenting a 2100???   What about a 2068!!!  lol

As did many other teams this week, we did not go so well in round 3 - which saw our overall rank slip out to 5,211th; and we lost 3 of our 5 league games too.

We made one trade last week...   Hibberd to Curnow - which looks like a good one; however our last minute decision to bench Curnow instead of Swallow was not so good. We only had 3 players over 130 - Buddy, Selwood and Goodes; and had 8 starting players score less than 75, and another 1 in the 70s and 3 in the 80s - but a full account of our scoring will be over the break:::::::<!--more-->
<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2"> 



1. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">74



2. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">112



3. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">58



4. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/241">Broughton[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">77



5. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/444">Grimes[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">82



6. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/258">Lower[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">80



7. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/23">Otten[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">44



8. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/180">Swan[/url] (MID) (Capt)
<td align="right">216



9. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/169">Pendlebury[/url] (MID) (VC)
<td align="right">94



10. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/268">Pavlich[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">100



11. <a...

Boy oh boy, it was a tough week for Supercoaches everywhere this week as crowd favorite after crowd favorite failed to live up to the dizzying heights that weve come to expect these past few weeks. And nowhere ws hit harder than defence as Gibbs, Deledio, Grimes, Newman and various others all failed to bring their usual clout to the table. In fact, the top score for the week only just cracked 2500.

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The week started off to a packed house with Collingwood unveiling their premiership flag in front of an undefeated Blues outfit. It was a tight first quarter, but the Pies kicked away in the second and managed to hold that lead for the rest of the game. The top scorer for the game was Jarryd Blair whos career high 5 goals took him to a 132SC. Judd played in typical Judd fashion and amassed a 112Sc off 24 touches. Chris Yarran will have a lot of coaches scratching their heads, after attracting a massive tag against Richmond, hes gone unchecked for two weeks and put his second ton for the year on with 111SC. I gotta feel for the coaches who traded him out after expecting him to do poorly again this week, but do have to wonder when his run will end. Shaw did well all game and without being subbed this week managed a fantastic 109 off 27 disposals at an 85% efficiency rate. Rounding out the top 5 was D. Swan, who picked up 34 touches, 17 of which were contested. That said, his relatively low score of 108SC is contributed to 13 of his touches being in the last quarter during what is commonly known as "junk time". It really doesnt explain to me how Dawes managed an 89SC when he was sitting at 20 at half time and picked up a lot of his points in junk time. Ed Curnow rewarded every coach who picked him up with a fantastic 92, though Im sure that most coaches had him sitting on the bench, fearing the black and white menace, just as Duigans 85 probably wasted away on many a coaches bench. Krakouer also rewarded all those who kept the faith, just 9 touches, but...

So, here goes round three, and thank goodness, were getting it live!! Sorry Better homes and gardens, theres more important things!

(Though I do wonder what Scooby is going to do about these Aliens?!)

So, what have we done, Curnow aint the sub and neither is Krakouer- for that, were thankful- but also means that the greenlight for Curnow in is on. Did you get on or do something else?

Also, dont forget to jump into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10250324&process=live">live chat[/url] if youre looking for some like-minded folk to watch it with!
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Also, get into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10250324&process=live">live chat[/url] peoples! There are some magnificent new features in there- check it out!

Recent chatter seems to suggest that Swan is emerging as the new perma-captain for 2011 after he followed up his 166 against Port Adelaide in Round 1 with a 152 against North Melbourne in Round 2. Collingwood plays Carlton this week followed by Richmond and Essendon so he should continue to get plenty of the ball. Pendlebury has also had a good couple of weeks and with his 162 last round, will also be a popular choice.

Everyone is talking about the Gold Coast Suns. Last week I wrote that it was expected they would be beaten pretty soundly by Carlton which is exactly what happened. From a Supercoach point of view, it means that teams playing the Suns are a potential gold mine. Last week, only two Suns broke the ton. By comparison, twelve Blues broke the ton.

Winning teams pick up most of the SuperCoach points allocated in a game. Last week, the grand total of Suns’ SuperCoach points was 1282. By comparison the grand total of Blues’ SuperCoach points was 2022. This week, Gold Coast play the Bulldogs – this makes Boyd and Cross nice options.
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Swan v. Carlton

Rd 18 2010: 152 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 113 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 90 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 124 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 85 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 108 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 128 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2006: 130 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 6 2006: 109 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 118 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Notes: In great form at the moment. Most recently tagged by Carazzo. Games prior to that he was allowed to play head to head with Simpson, Murphy and Gibbs.

Pendlebury v. Carlton

Rd 18 2010: 139 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 115 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 131 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 150...

So, last weeks rookies post went down an utter treat, so its time to dust off the <a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">ol ticker[/url] and lets see if we cant make heads or tails of who we should be fielding this week.

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Adelaide are facing Freo this week- they have an average tick for Defenders (Otten) and a warm tick for Forwards, of I reckon if youve got any of Otten, McKernan or Knights, get them on the field this week.
Get on.

Brisbane are up against Mebourne this week, who had a hot tick for defenders. Sadly, Lester isnt a defender- even though hes classified as one. Id probably skip playing any of the Lions but that probably due to form as much as anything
Avoid.

Carlton have the modern day SuperCoach kryponite of Collingwood, so for everyong with Curnow, laidler and Duigan- watch out!
Avoid.

Collingwood are of course, up against Carlton who field average ticks, except of course- in the Ruck. You should be safe here- but of course, check to see who their sub is and join in with the rest of us in hoping that Krakouer will be safe from Mick shenanigans.
Hold.

Essendon are facing St. Kilda, who make it their job to strangle opposition defenders and forwards, the main selection here that people will be faced with is Heppell, so while it wouldnt suprise me to see him struggle, he should get enough time through the middle to warrant being on the field.
Hold.

GC are up against the Doggies, these guys restrict forwards, so youll want to be careful with Dixon or Matera, but you should be safe for the rest of them.
Hold.

Hawthorn are playing Richmond- in short, if you have any Hawk rookies in your squad, just get them out on the field.
Get On.

Much like Hawthorn, Melbourne are coming up against Brisbane, who are leakier than a... well, leaky thing. If youve got Tapscott, chuck him on the field, heck, put the C on him if you really want, safe in the assurance that hell do well this game.
Get On.

Port, or as they...

Hi all,

Its time for another installment of Best Buys, but this time with a Best Sells column because of course we all want a bargain.

We have received a post from a regular reader, who I will call Josh (not JoshyC), but Im not certain of his normal moniker on the site.  If hes a "long time listener first time caller", get yourself an ID and join the discussions either here or in the forums.   Otherwise, identify yourself to the masses!

Im going to give him space on the Best Buys because hes written a good article in its own right, but then Ill add my personal thoughts.  It should give a good broad structure to the report.   Josh has written more on the players who will make you money at the bottom end of the scale, so I will also look at a few who might be on a train you need to catch now.  Ive left the analysis mainly to sub-premiums because I doubt too many would be able to make a quick trade into a great player without destroying their team/future trade structure.

Finally, yep its a chance to dump those players who are terminal.  Ive done some analysis on the future prices given either current average or predicted average (including my thoughts on past form, NAB Cup and where they are likely to land in future), which is tasty.   And yes, its over the break.   Its worth reading over coffee or lunch today, or when youre doing your trades tomorrow.   Keep coming back because Im sure that comments on trade options will be updated on by the regular readers here.

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OK, now for Joshs article - Ill take the money Ed:

The days of playing Monopoly with paper notes, seem to have passed now. For people like my sister who used to ‘politely’ volunteer to be the banker, just to start a sneaky few hundred dollars up on the competition, these days are sorely missed. However the first price rise of the Supercoach season in Round 3 gives people everywhere, including my sister, the opportunity to get ahead of the pack once more....