TooSerious

The late exclusions of both Lower and Pedersen are bound to be causing some coach a few headaches!

Hopefully it doesnt mean youll be wearing zero at this early stage in the season!

Oh, and while youre here, drop into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php">live scoring and chat[/url], I got a couple of fixes in over the week, and a nice little new feature that should make it run a lot smoother for everybody!

With the byes taking most of the decisions out of our hands, Im just gunna take a quick run around the <a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">traps[/url] to see if we cant figure out which of our rookies should be on the bench.

Fingers are crossed though that youre not already looking at a ducks egg! If thats the case, hit up Lucas in his <a href="http://tooserious.net/tooserious-best-buys-for-round-4">Best buys[/url], dont mean to toot his horn, but the mans a genius!

Anyways, onto the tick...

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Adelaide are facing Port, generally if youre sitting on any Crows, its gunna be Otten, Smith or McKernan- sadly though, Port have hot ticks for Mids and Rucs, but only an average tick for defenders and forwards. Even still, they should be a fairly safe bet.

Carlton are coming up against the Bombers, who have a hot tick for forwards, and an average tick for Defenders and Mids- however, it must be noted that this tick is still taking into account the end of 2010. That said, Duigan and Curnow are in ripping form and youd have to be a gutsy player to bench em.

Collingwood are up against the Tiges, so get Krakouer on the field.

Essendon are up against the Blues, who have an average tick across the lines. No reason to bench Heppell for that.

Freo are facing the Kangeroos, who hve 3 average ticks and a warm one for defenders- which should make all of us Lower holders pretty happy. Fingers need to be crossed that he doesnt fall off the extended bench!

GCS are facing the Ds, who have a warm defensive tick and a cold ruck tick. So while that should be good for those of us with Toy or Coad. Smith on the other hand is being handed his biggest challenge for the year.

Hawthorn are facing the Eagles, so while there is a cold Cox enduced ruck tick, the rest is warm to hot- so get them Hawks out there.

North Melbourne midfielders should benefit from Freos warm mid tick, while the rest of the ground is covered by an average tick....

Alright, so it seems that Jasmine has been whisked way for a few weeks for work related duties- sheesh, whoda thunk that being an international arms smuggler come secret agent would have such an effect on SuperCoach!?

Now, taking a quick look around the traps, Im kinda tempted to just lock in Swan v the Tigers, then go to lunch (or as its known at this hour, brinner - how I love brinner...), but I would hate to incur the wrath of Jasmine when she gets back!

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Swan v. Richmond

Round 17, 2010 - 190 SC, 34 disposals.
Round 20, 2009 - 149 SC, 34 disposals.
Round 3, 2008 - 69 SC, 18 disposals.
Round 19, 2007 - 51 SC, 13 disposals.
Round 3, 2007 - 132 SC, 35 disposals.

Current form: 142, Ave against Richmond in last 3: 136

Notes: Well, there was a time where Richmond restricted Swan, but that was a long time ago. Lock him in and dont look back.

Pendlebury v. Richmond

Round 17, 2010 - 84 SC, 30 disposals.
Round 20, 2009 - 116 SC, 31 disposals.
Round 3, 2008 - 87 SC, 21 disposals.
Round 3, 2007 - 92 SC, 16 disposals.

Notes: Like Swan, has racked up the possessions against richmond of late, but hasnt seemed to score a decent reward for it.

Current form: 125, Ave against Richmond in last 3: 96

Hodge v. West Coast

Round 7, 2010 - 128 SC, 22 disposals.
Round 13, 2009 - 111 SC, 31 disposals.
Round 5, 2009 - 115 SC, 26 disposals.
Round 14, 2008 - 110 SC, 23 disposals.
Round 9, 2007 - 146 SC, 23 disposals.

Notes: While I doubt anyone is currently holding Hodge, prior form dictates that he aint gunna be getting any cheaper for an upgrade for us.

Ave against West Coast: 118, Ave at ground: 137

Mitchell v. West Coast

Round 13, 2009 - 160 SC, 40 disposals.
Round 5, 2009 - 147 SC, 40 disposals.
Round 21, 2008 - 91 SC, 34 disposals.
Round 14, 2008 - 87 SC, 27 disposals.
Round 9, 2007 - 57 SC, 16 disposals.

Notes: Has absolutely torn it up against the West Coast the last few times theyve played- if the injury...

Just a quick call out to the donors-

StKildaThunda is setting up a little competition which will run over the 5 bye rounds, essentially, its a 32 man knockout comp that will run over each of the bye rounds

Week 1 - 16 games
Week 2 - 8 games
Week 3 - 4 games
Week 4 - 2 games
Week 5 - 1 game

Were currently up to 16 players, but need another 16 more, so if youre interested, jump into the forum <a href="http://tooserious.net/forum?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=416.0">here[/url] and register your interest.

So, were taking our firsting outing while accomidating the first of the super-byes, so its even more important that this week our coverage plays. Lets take a quick look at the big INs and OUTs.

INS: Mitchell, Rioli, Mackie, Pedersen
OUTS: Morton, Connors, Jolly, Thornton, Watson, Duncan, Kornes, Irons
Extended Bench: Prestia, Palmer, Lower, Atley, Pedersen

Mitchell and Rioli will be a welcome site for coaches, as will Pederson who weve been assured will play this week- looks like itll be time to move on him next week, so if youre still carrying a little dead-weight in the back line (Hi Hibberd), then fear not cause a little salvation is at hand if he can keep his form up.

Probably the biggest ouches considering the timing of it will be Duncan and Irons, with some solid teams sitting out this round, these two added in could be the straw which breaks the camels back! Not to mention Prestia, Lower and Atley sitting on an extended bench.

Good luck everyone, and may your donuts be chocolate covered and non-existent.

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Richmond v Collingwood
MCG – Fri Apr 15, 7:40pm

Richmond
B: Chris Newman, David Astbury, Reece Conca
HB: Brett Deledio, Will Thursfield, Jake Batchelor
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Jake King, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg
F: Bradley Helbig, Jack Riewoldt, Bachar Houli
Foll: Angus Graham, Daniel Jackson, Nathan Foley

I/C: Matthew White, Robin Nahas, Dylan Grimes, Brad Miller
Emg: Shane Tuck, Matt Dea, Ben Nason

In: Will Thursfield, Brad Miller
Out: Daniel Connors (Leg), Mitch Morton

Collingwood
B: Heath Shaw, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Heritier O’Brien, Ben Reid, Nick Maxwell
C: Andrew Krakouer, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Scott Pendlebury
F: Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown, Travis Cloke
Foll: Cameron Wood, Dane Swan, Alan Didak

I/C: Leon Davis, Ben Johnson, Sharrod Wellingham, Jarryd Blair
Emg: Brad Dick, Tyson Goldsack,...

Welcome to another edition of Best Buys.

There arent too many people looking to throw trades around as this is the first of five "league byes", and the first of three in succession.   So the question is, do you bother trading in one or any of these rounds?

If youre going for leagues, one could quite easily say "no trades" for each of these games, but that stands against logic, which dictates that the sooner you get a quality side out on the park, the sooner you can lock away wins in the league and ensure youre not scrambling for the top 8.  To my mind, this means that you can wait and sit out the Round 16 and 19 byes without having to make structural changes to your team.

We all know were in competitive leagues here, where to be off the pace early in the year can be terminal, as you find yourself trading just to keep pace.

So my general advice is avoid trading unless its either to bring in a cash cow, or to do the downgrade-upgrade switch.  Or of course the old Long Term Injury (LTI) factor.

One thing I do stress to do is dont run from your pre-selected premiums at the start of the year.  Even sideways trading these guys can come unstuck.   The thing is we still arent certain of which teams will be the best and which teams will struggle this year.   St Kilda is one team that has had an awful run, but they can quite easily come back to the forefront.  For people to say that we could have already settled the final 8 by now is madness.

Thats why checking out the ticker is always a great move, as you can plan your trades around a good patch of games.  But anyway, the advice on the rest of this weeks Best Buys, well thats over the break.

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Who do I need to think about getting in my side this week?

If you need a ruck cow, Zac Smith is one to consider.   He has a hugely negative (-100) break even this week, and should provide solid backup for Sandilands and Cox in their league byes in Round 5 and 6.  ...

Getting off to a good start goes a long way to taking out the Brownlow medal.  Cooney, Ablett and Judd all polled 5, 6 &amp; 9 votes respectively in their first three games when they most recently took out the award, so already we can start to make some predictions for this year.

Swan, Watson and Goodes are the three leaders when looking at the combined TS/Holey predictions, with both camps having Swan on 6, and the latter two with 5 or 6 depending on which tally you are following closer.

Swan looks to have taken his game to another level this year, and whilst quieter and less influential than the first two games, he was probably in the best 4-5 players on the ground which will give him a chance.  Remembering he finished 3rd on 24 votes last year, and with Ablett likely to drop away somewhat, he doesn’t need to improve a great deal to get the medal he deserved last year (just seeing if Ben is still out there somewhere...Judd is as worthy a winner as any).  Swan is currently the favourite at $6.

Watson has played two great games now in what looks to be a far improved team.  He polled 16 votes in a team that won just 7 games last year, so his fortunes will likely be linked closely of that to how far the Bombers have actually progressed.  The signs are bright at the moment, and the punters agree with him now moved up to third place behind last year’s winner at $11.

And finally to Goodes.  After a slow second half in round 1, the dual medallist has bounced back with two very impressive games.  We all know he is an umpire favourite, and early money on him wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world with him sitting at equal 7th in the betting at $17.

This week’s votes over the break:<!--more-->

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Carlton

TS:
3 – J. Blair (3)
2 – C. Judd (4)
1 – D. Swan (6)

Holey:
3 – J. Blair (3)
2 – H. Shaw (2)
1 – D. Swan (6)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Western...

After last two weeks predictions of Meataxe and Snowdogs taking top spot the next week, Im not sure who will get the kiss of life from this article.

Needless to say, the strongest teams prevail when the chips are down, and for Snowdogs to have been in the top 3 last week without Selwood so much as firing a shot, it stood to reason that when he returned with a bang, that this side would take the lead.

Heres the current leading team, last weeks P3 Snowdogs:

DEF: Enright, Gibbs, Goddard, Deledio, Grimes, Lower, Duigan (Otten, Guthrie, Buckley)
MID: Swan, Pendlebury, Judd, Selwood, Curnow, Liberatore (Savage, Irons, Wallis)
RUC: Cox, Sandilands (Keefe, Charman)
FWD:  Franklin, Higgins, Pavlich, Hurley, Rioli, Tapscott, Darling (Krakouer, Richardson, Matera)

Interesting team.  Analysis to come after the break.

<!--more-->The first things that stand out:

Defence has a 5-0-5 structure rather than 4-0-6.  This has led to a bit better structure possibly, but leaves open the issue of underperforming backline rookies to upgrade later.  I see Buckley and Guthrie as issues going forward here.
Midfield is strong.  Very strong having the three best rookies.  Should be a full-strength mid collection before long.  Irons in danger of the axe, but the rest are legitimate team members.
Rucks are the top combination, but without backup this could get ugly in Round 5/6 not to mention if Sandi misses this week.
Forwards has Hurley as a risk, Higgins and Rioli have starred as midpricers, and no Nick Riewoldt to start the year is a definite surprise.  Could take a few trades getting him in though the advantage of not having him flows nicely in R4.

I see the big weaknesses as being in the backline and ruck rookies over the next few weeks when the coverage is critical.  Thats why I can see this team slinking back through the ranks and being maybe a top 50 side at the end but not being there at the pointy end.   I can see this week as being a time for...

On Twitter, Walesy mentioned lamenting a 2100???   What about a 2068!!!  lol

As did many other teams this week, we did not go so well in round 3 - which saw our overall rank slip out to 5,211th; and we lost 3 of our 5 league games too.

We made one trade last week...   Hibberd to Curnow - which looks like a good one; however our last minute decision to bench Curnow instead of Swallow was not so good. We only had 3 players over 130 - Buddy, Selwood and Goodes; and had 8 starting players score less than 75, and another 1 in the 70s and 3 in the 80s - but a full account of our scoring will be over the break:::::::<!--more-->
<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2"> 



1. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">74



2. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">112



3. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">58



4. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/241">Broughton[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">77



5. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/444">Grimes[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">82



6. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/258">Lower[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">80



7. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/23">Otten[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">44



8. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/180">Swan[/url] (MID) (Capt)
<td align="right">216



9. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/169">Pendlebury[/url] (MID) (VC)
<td align="right">94



10. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/268">Pavlich[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">100



11. <a...

Boy oh boy, it was a tough week for Supercoaches everywhere this week as crowd favorite after crowd favorite failed to live up to the dizzying heights that weve come to expect these past few weeks. And nowhere ws hit harder than defence as Gibbs, Deledio, Grimes, Newman and various others all failed to bring their usual clout to the table. In fact, the top score for the week only just cracked 2500.

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The week started off to a packed house with Collingwood unveiling their premiership flag in front of an undefeated Blues outfit. It was a tight first quarter, but the Pies kicked away in the second and managed to hold that lead for the rest of the game. The top scorer for the game was Jarryd Blair whos career high 5 goals took him to a 132SC. Judd played in typical Judd fashion and amassed a 112Sc off 24 touches. Chris Yarran will have a lot of coaches scratching their heads, after attracting a massive tag against Richmond, hes gone unchecked for two weeks and put his second ton for the year on with 111SC. I gotta feel for the coaches who traded him out after expecting him to do poorly again this week, but do have to wonder when his run will end. Shaw did well all game and without being subbed this week managed a fantastic 109 off 27 disposals at an 85% efficiency rate. Rounding out the top 5 was D. Swan, who picked up 34 touches, 17 of which were contested. That said, his relatively low score of 108SC is contributed to 13 of his touches being in the last quarter during what is commonly known as "junk time". It really doesnt explain to me how Dawes managed an 89SC when he was sitting at 20 at half time and picked up a lot of his points in junk time. Ed Curnow rewarded every coach who picked him up with a fantastic 92, though Im sure that most coaches had him sitting on the bench, fearing the black and white menace, just as Duigans 85 probably wasted away on many a coaches bench. Krakouer also rewarded all those who kept the faith, just 9 touches, but...