TooSerious

So, here goes round three, and thank goodness, were getting it live!! Sorry Better homes and gardens, theres more important things!

(Though I do wonder what Scooby is going to do about these Aliens?!)

So, what have we done, Curnow aint the sub and neither is Krakouer- for that, were thankful- but also means that the greenlight for Curnow in is on. Did you get on or do something else?

Also, dont forget to jump into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10250324&process=live">live chat[/url] if youre looking for some like-minded folk to watch it with!
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Also, get into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10250324&process=live">live chat[/url] peoples! There are some magnificent new features in there- check it out!

Recent chatter seems to suggest that Swan is emerging as the new perma-captain for 2011 after he followed up his 166 against Port Adelaide in Round 1 with a 152 against North Melbourne in Round 2. Collingwood plays Carlton this week followed by Richmond and Essendon so he should continue to get plenty of the ball. Pendlebury has also had a good couple of weeks and with his 162 last round, will also be a popular choice.

Everyone is talking about the Gold Coast Suns. Last week I wrote that it was expected they would be beaten pretty soundly by Carlton which is exactly what happened. From a Supercoach point of view, it means that teams playing the Suns are a potential gold mine. Last week, only two Suns broke the ton. By comparison, twelve Blues broke the ton.

Winning teams pick up most of the SuperCoach points allocated in a game. Last week, the grand total of Suns’ SuperCoach points was 1282. By comparison the grand total of Blues’ SuperCoach points was 2022. This week, Gold Coast play the Bulldogs – this makes Boyd and Cross nice options.
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Swan v. Carlton

Rd 18 2010: 152 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 113 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 90 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 124 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 85 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 108 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 7 2007: 128 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 21 2006: 130 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 6 2006: 109 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

Average is 118 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Notes: In great form at the moment. Most recently tagged by Carazzo. Games prior to that he was allowed to play head to head with Simpson, Murphy and Gibbs.

Pendlebury v. Carlton

Rd 18 2010: 139 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 115 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 131 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 150...

So, last weeks rookies post went down an utter treat, so its time to dust off the <a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">ol ticker[/url] and lets see if we cant make heads or tails of who we should be fielding this week.

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Adelaide are facing Freo this week- they have an average tick for Defenders (Otten) and a warm tick for Forwards, of I reckon if youve got any of Otten, McKernan or Knights, get them on the field this week.
Get on.

Brisbane are up against Mebourne this week, who had a hot tick for defenders. Sadly, Lester isnt a defender- even though hes classified as one. Id probably skip playing any of the Lions but that probably due to form as much as anything
Avoid.

Carlton have the modern day SuperCoach kryponite of Collingwood, so for everyong with Curnow, laidler and Duigan- watch out!
Avoid.

Collingwood are of course, up against Carlton who field average ticks, except of course- in the Ruck. You should be safe here- but of course, check to see who their sub is and join in with the rest of us in hoping that Krakouer will be safe from Mick shenanigans.
Hold.

Essendon are facing St. Kilda, who make it their job to strangle opposition defenders and forwards, the main selection here that people will be faced with is Heppell, so while it wouldnt suprise me to see him struggle, he should get enough time through the middle to warrant being on the field.
Hold.

GC are up against the Doggies, these guys restrict forwards, so youll want to be careful with Dixon or Matera, but you should be safe for the rest of them.
Hold.

Hawthorn are playing Richmond- in short, if you have any Hawk rookies in your squad, just get them out on the field.
Get On.

Much like Hawthorn, Melbourne are coming up against Brisbane, who are leakier than a... well, leaky thing. If youve got Tapscott, chuck him on the field, heck, put the C on him if you really want, safe in the assurance that hell do well this game.
Get On.

Port, or as they...

Hi all,

Its time for another installment of Best Buys, but this time with a Best Sells column because of course we all want a bargain.

We have received a post from a regular reader, who I will call Josh (not JoshyC), but Im not certain of his normal moniker on the site.  If hes a "long time listener first time caller", get yourself an ID and join the discussions either here or in the forums.   Otherwise, identify yourself to the masses!

Im going to give him space on the Best Buys because hes written a good article in its own right, but then Ill add my personal thoughts.  It should give a good broad structure to the report.   Josh has written more on the players who will make you money at the bottom end of the scale, so I will also look at a few who might be on a train you need to catch now.  Ive left the analysis mainly to sub-premiums because I doubt too many would be able to make a quick trade into a great player without destroying their team/future trade structure.

Finally, yep its a chance to dump those players who are terminal.  Ive done some analysis on the future prices given either current average or predicted average (including my thoughts on past form, NAB Cup and where they are likely to land in future), which is tasty.   And yes, its over the break.   Its worth reading over coffee or lunch today, or when youre doing your trades tomorrow.   Keep coming back because Im sure that comments on trade options will be updated on by the regular readers here.

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OK, now for Joshs article - Ill take the money Ed:

The days of playing Monopoly with paper notes, seem to have passed now. For people like my sister who used to ‘politely’ volunteer to be the banker, just to start a sneaky few hundred dollars up on the competition, these days are sorely missed. However the first price rise of the Supercoach season in Round 3 gives people everywhere, including my sister, the opportunity to get ahead of the pack once more....

Weve got a couple of big ins and outs this week, Selwood back in, hopefully hell get back to his lofty heights sooner rather than later. Lake and Gilbee are back which could make for some delicious upgrade targets if they start slow.

A couple of big outs will hurt a few, Rioli we knew, but Buckley, Toy and Fraser will test a few.

No Hibberd will certainly make trading him out a lot easier for coaches this week though!
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INS: Selwood, Salopek, Hartlett, Lake, Gilbee, Polec
OUTS: Mackie, Cassisi, Rioli, Buckley, Toy, Fraser
Extended Bench: M.Duncan, A.Christensen, Bewick, Polec


Collingwood v Carlton
COLLINGWOOD
B: Heath Shaw, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Harry OBrien, Ben Reid, Nick Maxwell (c)
C: Andrew Krakouer, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Scott Pendlebury (vc)
F: Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown, Travis Cloke
Fol: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Alan Didak
Int: Ben Johnson, Jarryd Blair, Sharrod Wellingham, Leon Davis
Emg: Brent Macaffer, Cameron Wood, Lachlan Keeffe

In: Nick Maxwell, Leon Davis
Out: Simon Buckley (injured - groin), Brent Macaffer (omitted)

CARLTON
B: J.Laidler M.Jamison M.Watson
HB: N.Duigan B.Thornton J.Russell
C: K.Simpson B.Gibbs H.Scotland
HF: M.Murphy J.Waite C.Yarran
F: E.Betts S.Hampson J.Garlett
Fo: R.Warnock A.Walker C.Judd
Int: A.Carrazzo A.Collins E.Curnow M.Robinson
Emg: D.Ellard S.White D.Armfield

In: A.Collins , M.Jamison
Out: D.Armfield (Omitted) , S.White (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs

B: Brennan Stack, Brian Lake, Dale Morris
HB: Liam Picken, Tom L. Williams, Robert Murphy
C: Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd, Justin Sherman
HF: Josh Hill, Barry Hall, Shaun Higgins
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jordan Roughead, Jarrad Grant
Foll: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen
I/C: Lindsay Gilbee, Callan Ward, Lukas Markovic, Thomas Liberatore
Emg: Liam Jones, Nathan Djerrkura, Mitchell Wallis

In: Lindsay Gilbee, Brian Lake...

After a very long season (which we actually started planning in September 10) - we are left with two teams fighting it out in our granny! Surprisingly the 2 teams that finished 7th and 8th on the final ladder...   in other words the 2 teams that nearly didnt even make the playoffs!

Team anthak vs Wade Machine!

This matchup is over 10 days; however the first (yesterday) did not have any games on...   but still, its a longer matchup than usual - which is fair enough i suppose.

Last time these 2 teams met, it was back in early February, and Wade machine were victorious by only 80 points. Baron Davis was the only player to top 200 points in either team.

Over the break, Ill review the semi finals and take a closer look at this weeks granny::::<!--more-->

Firstly, last weeks Semi Finals:

#7 <a title="Team anthak (Anthony Hack)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=1&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Team anthak[/url] 1455 v #6 <a title="Fudges Sixers (Jim Tsilikas)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=16&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Fudges Sixers[/url] 1088<a title="Fudges Sixers (Jim Tsilikas)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=16&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">
[/url]

This loss to Fudge clinched the Dirk Diggler trophy to stay with Karlos after he had won 10 games in a row from Round 6 to Round 15 (beating both grand finalists during that stretch).

My boys led all the way in this game, and finished with almost a 400 point win. I was best served by Derrick Rose (255 from 4), and he was well supported by Kevin Durant (191 from 4), Zach randolph (172 from 3), JaVale McGee (154 from 4), Josh Smith (136 from 3) and James Harden (126 from 4). Fudges best were LaMarcus Aldridge (158 from 4), Andre Iquadala (155 from 4), kevin martin (144 from 4), DeMarcus Cousins (138 from 4), David Lee (112 from 3) and Stephen Curry (109 from...

Alright, with the breakevens and salary predictions coming to the forefront of our minds, I reckon now is a good time to remind everyone of just how powerful this site is for your team.

So whether youre a beginner supercoach whos just coming to terms with breakevens and salary movement, or a seasoned vet who could use a refresher on the changes from last year, read on.
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First thing is first, Ive been asked a couple of times why there is only an option to manage your watchlist in the stats page- The answer is: Because you havent set up your team yet! Youll need to go into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/profile">profile page[/url] and from here, you can create teams which you can then watch on the stats page.

Once youve create a team, you can upload your current squad, or manually add players through the stats page. This makes life easier for your when you are trying to track exactly whats going on in your squad.

Next, <a href="http://tooserious.net/stats.php">on the stats page[/url], the most important fields that youll be looking at is the Breakeven (BE), and the Next round (Predicted salary price movement for the next round). Sorting by either the BE, or the next round (or even total movement, which predicts a players salary movement over the next three rounds), will give you an immediant picture on which players are going to be appreciating, and which wont. These figures are generated based on a players current average- so if youre after more of a granular idea, youll need to access the salary predictor. To get in here, you need to click on the little calculator next to a players name.

What you see on the salary calculator is a few things, a graphs which tracks the salary movement, and a table which allows you to enter data into. As you enter data into the table, and tab off the field, the graph will redraw itself with the new salary predictions. <a href="http://tooserious.net/player_calc.php?id=1097&pcid=13633">Edward Curnow[/url]...

Another week, another 48 votes.  Interestingly 40 of them are agreed between my calculations and the TS masses - will delve into the differences over the break.

We are still probably 2-3 weeks away from seeing who is going to have a massive push for this years medal, however a couple of early flyers are starting to emerge.

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St Kilda v Richmond

TS
3 - B. Deledio (3)
2 - S. Milne (2)
1. S. Grigg (1)

Holey:
3 - S. Milne (3)
2 - B. Deledio (2)
1 - S. Grigg (1)

Milne and Deledio the two best players for their respective sides.  Deledio probably deserves the three, but Milne has a better record when he puts in games as he did on Friday night.

Collingwood training run

TS:
3 - S. Pendlebury (4)
2 - D. Swan (5)
1 - C. Dawes (1)

Holey:
3 - S. Pendlebury (3)
2 - D. Swan (5)
1 - C. Dawes (3)

Cleary the best two players on the ground.  Pendleburys early work + better BOG return with the umps gets him the nod here.  Both camps have Swan on 5 after two rounds, which may seem excessive given his perceived run with the umps, but his recent output is beyond his usual high levels.  Swan has 7 games with a combined DT/SC score over 300, and has polled in everyone at an average of 2.14 votes per game.  4-5 seems about right at this very early stage of the season.

West Coast v Port Adelaide

TS:
3 - A. Embley (3)
2 - L. Shuey (2)
1 - D. Cox (4)

Holey:
3 - A. Embley (3)
2 - L. Shuey (2)
1 - D. Cox (4)

Coxs poor polling records sees him with just the one when probably being level with Shuey.  Embley was fantastic.

Carlton training run

TS:
3 - M. Murphy (5)
2 - B. Gibbs (5)
1 - C. Judd (2)

Holey:
3 - C. Judd (3)
2. B. Gibbs (5)
1. M. Murphy (3)

Same players - just in reverse.  I think Judd did enough this week for his Judd-factor to push him into BOG position in the umpires eyes.  That said, there were 3 players who scored 4 or more goals, so 1 or 2 of those could easily push for the minor...

So Meataxe, time for the chop buddy.

This week Beat the Best will focus on three of the top teams, will show you some of the differences, and how you can pull back the margins.   In many ways, we can also see the slices of luck they have had and we havent when getting top of the tree.

Im certainly one for saying that even now probably anyone outside the top 1000 are in trouble of winning the overall, but that said, there are still the big 3 bye weeks where teams are going to be smashed left-right-and-centre.  When you think about the issues we see with Rioli or Selwood or Hayes or Jack Riewoldt, they are nothing compared with the carnage that occurs when four of them go out in one week.

Its THEN that your rookies will have to stand up, your teams will have to undergo fast upgrades, and you will also find that unless Zac Smith continues to punch out great games, lots of coaches will be huddling and hoping around Broc McCauley.  Risk and reward - thats what this game is all about.

So, Meataxe, youre number one, my prediction from last week, and so heres the team, and the areas of strength and weakness will be discussed over the break.

DEF: Gibbs, Deledio, Goddard, Broughton, Heppell, Lower, Duigan (Lester, Stanley, Toy)
MID: Swan, Pendlebury, Curnow, Judd, Dal Santo, Krakouer (Buckley, Harris, Bewick)
RUC: Cox, Sandilands (Petrie, McCauley)
FWD:  Rioli, OKeefe, Tapscott, Riewoldt, Goodes, Franklin, Darling (Richardson, Matera, Dixon)

<!--more-->A very strong team, this is a TooSerious team for sure.

The defence is the 4-0-6 structure.  Avoided Otten likely for reasons of last weeks bye and possible sub/security issues.  Could bite later.  Heppell is the good selection here, lots went him, but my team got the miss there.  I think the rest is stock standard, and just needs upgrading.  Plenty in the mix here.

Midfield he has Curnow, which explains his current advantage.  How many times can you go to the well?  Went...

Despite missing Selwood, we had a fairly good week, scoring 2365,  and moved up to 2,137th overall; including another 5 league victories!

And now the real fun begins...   Trading!

This whole thing is a work in progress, so it is yet to be seen how fluently the trading process will go; however im sure it will be extremely interesting hearing the thoughts of everyone on what trades should be done. I have set up a forum topic for a bit of discussion around trades - so go and check it out. Ill explain the process in more detail in the donor forum as well.

Now over the break is the scoring breakdown from round 2:::::<!--more-->
<table id="scoringPlayers" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>

<td colspan="2">SCORING PLAYERS



<td colspan="2"> 



1. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/110">Gibbs[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">127



2. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/575">Deledio[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">136



3. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/632">Goddard[/url] (DEF) (VC)
<td align="right">102



4. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/241">Broughton[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">90



5. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/444">Grimes[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">92



6. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/202">Heppell[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">81



7. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/258">Lower[/url] (DEF)
<td align="right">37



8. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/180">Swan[/url] (MID) (Capt)
<td align="right">304



9. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/169">Pendlebury[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">162



10. <a href="http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/player/268">Pavlich[/url] (MID)
<td align="right">118



11. <a...