TooSerious

So round 2 has come and gone- and before we know it, were looking down the barrel of using our 2 correction trades. The two big options right now are looking like Liberatore and Curnow- so if youve got a couple of under performing mids, take a look at them, cause after this week- theyre gunna start going Moo.

But Cashcows and trading isnt what were here to discuss, this is for this round in football.
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Started off as we do, on a Friday evening, and a match that Im sure we expected to be either boring, or a blowout. And thats how it started, Richmond looked a rabble, St Kilda were dominating and then the cruelest twist of all, Jack Riewoldt went down with a concussion that left him on Zero. Funny thing is, Without Joey (Roo Jnr), Richmond looked a whole different team and made an absolute crack of it! Daniel Jackson top scored for the game with a 145 which was pretty damn good for 91DT. The Tiprat came second in the game with a 141. For that, he kick 4 goal 7, which included a missed set shot that would have won the game. Would have been a huge game for the lad. Deledio got a 136, with an outstanding performance against Goddard while Newman scored 134- which is raising the question, a 133 average, can it last and will he be a top7 back come the end of the year? We saw a bit of a return to form for Foley, scoring a solid 88, but question marks still abound with the bloke. On the rookie front, Conca, helbig and Batchelor all rolled fairly averagely and I imagine a number will be looking to switch Conca out for one of the big rookies this week. Gilberts move to the forward line is looking uglier by the day with a 59, but who it does look to be helping is one Sam Fisher who picked up an impressive 121- if that continues to next week, it could be worth bringing him in after round 4.

Finally, and this deserves its own paragraph, while Roo was unfortunate, particularly to the 20k people who traded him in, the real tragedy of this game was Lenny...

Alright, some bug has prevented it from hiding like it does in test, but none the less, you can now get through to the live pages by clicking on a game at the top of the page there.

Personally, Im stoked to see how the GC go in there first game.

And just a couple of quick points.
- Selwood is out.
- Hille is looking like hell miss, hence Belly coming in for Monfries. Wonder what that will do to Ryder.

Catch you guys in the live chat!

Edit: Youve got to be logged in to join in the chat. If you head over there and see nothing, thats probably why...

One week into the season and we see people running towards the scorers, and away from those after one quiet week.

Welcome back to the trigger finger Supercoach traders.

I must admit, its tempting to try to right a wrong straight away, but my thought is that if you have taken a preseason to mull over selections, the least you can do is wait a week to see how they all go.

Regardless of your league, trades are going to be important and though there are 4 more than last year, there are also two rounds and byes that will wreak havoc with teams when the injury burdens come on later in the year.

So, my main advice this week, if you dont have any long term injuries (LTI), stick with your players.  Consider this a week of shaking off the rust.

And if you think that you might have missed a gun player, one more week without them isnt going to kill you.  You might find this week that Goodes enjoys a run around against Fletcher, and ROK gets a hard clamp tag.  The Bombers must be doing something right if the famed Dogs midfield cant crack the ton against them.

More advice on the LTI resolutions over the break.

<!--more-->So here are the main LTIs and who are in the mix around that price range to replace them.  Im going 25k over and under, because Im expecting most teams will have around that in their kitty.

David Mackay (ADEL) - (M) - 345k - Patrick Dangerfield (340), David Zaharakis (338), Clinton Young (310)

Jason Porplyzia (ADEL) - (F) - 344k - Patrick Dangerfield (340), David Zaharakis (338), Robert Murphy (346)

Rory Sloane (ADE) - (M) - 366k - Trent Cotchin (384), Daniel Rich (380), Bernie Vince (378)

Jonathan Brown (BRIS) - (F) - 476k - Jack Riewoldt (450), Ryan OKeefe (440), Steve Johnson (436), Brad Green (469), Cyril Rioli (461), Matthew Pavlich (483)

Brent Staker (BRIS) - (MF) - 427k - Shaun Higgins (380), Colin Sylvia (428), Steve Johnson (436)

Jay Schulz (PORT) - (F) - 361k - Patrick Dangerfield (340), David...

There has already been a bit of discussion about picking a captain this round. Swan is emerging as a possible perma-captain after notching up a very nice 166 against Port Adelaide in Round 1. Everyone is also talking about the hot form shown by the various ruckman around the league. The reduced bench seems to have assisted them in terms of playing time which is a good reason for their increased output.

The other hot topic is Gold Coast. Everyone (except for Ablett!) is expecting them to be beaten pretty soundly by Carlton which makes players such as Judd, Murphy or Gibbs attractive choices as captains. Of course, there is someone called Gary Ablett who is also playing in that game …

Winning teams pick up most of the SuperCoach points allocated in a game. The Gold Coast preseason SuperCoach numbers are interesting. On average, you would expect between 3 to 5 players on each team to score over 100 SuperCoach points per game. In its first two preseason games, no Gold Coast player broke the ton. Yes, no-one. In its final hitout, only two players broke the ton (Stanley with 117 and Matera with 103). This could be explained by McKenna resting his gun players and also giving his younger players a good spread of playing time. It might also mean that the Gold Coast players aren’t seeing much of the ball – which conversely means that Carlton players will be in for a field day on the weekend …
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Swan v. North Melbourne

Rd 7 2010: 127 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 6 2009: 127 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 16 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 87 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 122 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 22 2006: 102 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 3 2006: 101 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals

Average is 108 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

Notes: Not a fantastic record against North. Hasn’t managed to pump out a big score against them. Has started the season on fire. Looks...

One of the litle side games that has taken off in the forums here is the Trading game. The idea is that everyone decides on and starts with the same starting team, so that we can see who pulls the better trades throughout the season.

What I didnt expect to see though, is a 180 point score differencial based solely on Captain and Bench selection- Particularly when 6 GC rookies and Hibberd brought the made it that only a handful of players were in range to be benched.

This highlights to me just how important it is, in the early day, to get your captain and bench selections just right! heck, 180 points is the difference right now between a top 50 start and a top 7,000 start, or a top 7,000 start and a top 50,000 start.

In short, it can make a huge difference to your standings until youve got your team upgraded.
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So, lets take a look at some good princibles in selecting your onfield rookies, and where better a place to start than <a href="http://tooserious.net/ticker.php">the Ticker[/url].

Firstly, lets take a looks at the big scores from last week.

Robbie Tarrant 119: Looking at the ticker, we can see that West Coast give up points to opposition defenders (well, everyone except rucks really!) - which certainly would have helped here.
Ed Curnow 118: Again, Richmond leak points to each of the oppositions players, except for defenders (Ball not down there enough? *zing* Tigers fans!)
Cam Pedersen 114: While technically playing in the ruck, he was given the job of letting Cox run free so that he could as well. Had he played tighter on Cox, dare I say, his scores would have reflected that.
Luke Tapscott 113: This was impressive- Sydney have long been regarded a SuperCoach kryponite- however, a closer look at their chart reveals that they give up an average amount of points to defenders. Still, a debut ton against an "average" tick is nothing to be sneezed at.
Nick Lower 110: Brisbane are running HOT in...

Another article from our most awesome community here, this time its by Ruddy who takes a closer look at the effects that the sub has had on the 3300 rule.

Hey guys, Ruddy here.

For those of you who werent on TS much over the pre-season, there was a debate in the forum about whether the introduction of the sub would mean that the 3300 rule needs to be altered.

First, i will go through the theoretical side of this article.
Before the sub rule, in each game there were 44 players scoring an average of 75, for a total of 3300. However, now that there are subs, 4 of those 44 players only play (on average) half a game. Using simple logic, we can see that these four players, having played only half a game each, will average half of what they would if they played a full game. So they will average somewhere around 37.5.
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Under the 3300 rule, these four players are expected to average 75 for a total of 300 points between them. However, since they only average 37.5 between them, they will only have a total of 150 points. This results in an extra 150 points per match for the non-subs to pick up. This means about an extra 3 to 4 points for each non-sub player, on average.

This, of course, is all theoretical. Now i will go through what actually happened in round 1. And before anyone says it, i know it is a small sample size, but it is all the data available, and the statistics are pretty convincing.

In round 1, there were 32 players involved with the sub rule, whether they were subbed on, or subbed off. Together, these 32 players managed to score 1242 points, for an average of 38.8. Pretty close to the theoretical average of 37.5.

So where did the extra points go? Since there were still 3300 points allocated per game, the extra 145 (approx) points went to the other players in the game at an average of 3.6 points per player.

Over round 1, there were 26409 points scored total. By subtracting the points scored by subs, we...

Thursday night- you know what that means!!!

First of all, a summary of the fantasy relevant ins and outs.
INS: Petrie, Kerr, Watson, Wallis, Chapman, Polec, McCauley, Ellis, Hodge
OUTS Pederson, LeCras, Pitt, Wood
Extended: Ward, Wallis, liberatore, Beams, Polec, McCauley

Big Cam Pederson isnt a surprising out, but is certainly going to hurt a few, particularly if youre guilty of the cardinal sin- trading before the teams are out!
Wallis coming in could make him a tasty downgrade target come round 5 if he can keep up some form (and youre all feeling aggressive enough!)
Selwood has been named, but that still doesnt mean hes a lock- they do have 3 emergencies ready to step into his spot if he isnt ready.

Finally, we get to see the GC squad! No Coad named, but Prestia being in the squad will certainly make a few smile- though that could easily turn into a frown if hes nominated as the sub!

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GOLD COAST SUNS
B: Seb Tape, Nathan Bock, Campbell Brown
HB: Jarrod Harbrow, Karmichael Hunt, Nathan Krakouer
C: Trent McKenzie, Daniel Harris, Michael Rischitelli
HF: Daniel Stanley, Charlie Dixon, Alik Magin
F: Jared Brennan, Zac Smith, Brandon Matera
Foll: Josh Fraser, David Swallow, Gary Ablett
I/C: Marc Lock, Josh Toy, Harley Bennell, Dion Prestia
Emerg: Maverick Weller, Michael Coad, Daniel Gorringe

Carlton
B: Jordan Russell, Bret Thornton, Matthew Watson
HB: Nick Duigan, Simon White, Jeremy Laidler
C: Kade Simpson, Chris Judd, Heath Scotland
HF: Jeffrey Garlett, Jarrad Waite, Christopher Yarran
F: Eddie Betts, Shaun Hampson, Andrew Walker
Foll: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs
I/C: Andrew Carrazzo, Dennis Armfield, Mitch Robinson, Edward Curnow
Emg: David Ellard, Lachlan Henderson, Andrew Collins

St Kilda
B: Steven Baker, Zac Dawson, Raphael Clarke
HB: Sam Gilbert, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Jason Gram, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
HF: David Armitage, Nick Riewoldt, Brett Peake
F: Nick...

Howdy all - how good is it to have the footy back!  A great week to kick off the season with a number of close games and a few upsets too.

As Walesy recently reminded us all, 2011 is the chance to have your say on who will pick up votes as the rounds roll on - and it looks as if many of you have already done so.  Along with your aggregate picks, Ill also be giving my opinion too.  This years formula has been tweaked to allow for players who have polled well in recent times, as I mentioned in my previous post.  Without further ado, here are the predictions for round 1

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[span style="text-decoration: underline">Carlton v Richmond

Too Serious Votes:
B. Gibbs (3)
M. Murphy (2)
C. Judd (1)

Holeys Votes:
B. Gibbs (3)
M. Murphy (2)
J. Riewoldt (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong v St Kilda

TS:
J. Bartel (3)
L. Hayes (2)
C. Enright (1)

Holey:
L. Hayes (3)
J. Bartel (2)
H. Taylor (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Port Adelaide

TS:
D. Swan (3)
B. Johnson (2)
S. Pendlebury (1)

Holey:
D. Swan (3)
C. Dawes (2)
B. Johnson (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Adelaide v Hawthorn

TS:
S. Mitchell (3)
P. Dangerfield (2)
S. Stevens (1)

Holey:
S. Mitchell (3)
B. Reilly (2)
P. Dangerfield (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Fremantle v Brisbane

TS:
A. Sandilands (3)
S. Black (2)
N. Fyfe (1)

Holey:
A. Sandilands (3)
S. Black (2)
N. Fyfe (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon v Western Bulldogs

TS:
J. Watson (3)
D. Hille (2)
P. Ryder (1)

Holey:
D. Hille (3)
J. Watson (2)
B. Stanton (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Melbourne v Sydney

TS:
R. OKeefe (3)
B. Moloney (2)
J. Bolton (1)

Holey:
R. OKeefe (3)
B. Moloney (2)
C. Sylvia (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">West Coast v North Melbourne

TS:
D. Cox (3)
A. Swallow (2)
M. Priddis (1)

Holey:
D. Cox (3)
A....

Alright, its had a few teething issues, but I reckon our end-o-lockout process is now looking like it should be working well.

So Ive just got a couple of pointers from around the site to remind you all of:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/brownlow.php">The brownlow tool[/url]: If you want to jump in with the fun of the brownlow, you should head over and <a href="http://tooserious.net/brownlow.php">enter in your tips[/url]- Holey will be doing his post soon, so youll want to get in quick! (And hey, keeping a log of your votes is much easier done the week you watched the games). And just to remind you all, we cleaned up with the bookies on this thing last year, so it could certainly pay to get involved! (ps- gamble responsibly, etc).
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<a href="http://tooserious.net/leagues.php">The Leagues[/url]: We pulled in our first batch of leagues tonight and it looks pretty good. Theres still a number of issues with the page, but on a whole, it looks pretty good. Remember though, you want to <a href="http://tooserious.net/leagues.php">get your leagues entered in ASAP[/url] (or at least before round 2 finishes), cause we need to track it from day one. One question that was raised, how do I get a tid? Well, if you go into your league, and hold your mouse over your opposition, the link that it goes to looks something like this- http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/?p=other_teams&lid=1&tid=11. If you read that, you can see that for that team, the tid=11. Just enter the 11 in.

<a href="http://tooserious.net/stats.php?sort=break_even&desc=asc">Breakevens[/url]: Just a reminder, breakevens dont come out until next week, but it couldnt hurt to take a looksee at which rookies look to be heading in the right direction.

Trading: Firstly, unless you have the Browndog, the Frenchman, or one of the other LTIs, just sit on your hands this week. If you disagree and reckon you have a trade that you just *need* to do, drop in a comment and well...

Wow. How strange that 3 of the quarter finals had so much symmetry - the favourites starting strong, before their opponents put up massive scores down the stretch to jump in front on the last day today.

And they were our top 3 seeds that lost! Owen, Karlos and Heaver - you have all had really great seasons... And jasmine as well.   There were 5 teams that really set the pace all year, and now Micka is the only one left.

Ill jump straight into it this week - over the break are the reviews and previews as usual ::::

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Playoffs Week 1:

#8 <a title="Wade Machine (Daniel Laengst)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=15&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Wade Machine[/url] 1400 v #1 <a title="Run TMC (Owen Beebe)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=19&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Run TMC[/url] 1277

Most individual days in this one were tight, with only 3 days having margins greater than 25. Owen had a humongous day 3 with 485 points!!  (Ruddy does that beat your record? I cant remember, but I think it does). Dan only won 2 days all up, including his huge final day - scoring 390 which put him in front for the first time all week. Neither team used a single acquisition, and both had about the same games played - Dan with 3 more than Owen, but if scores are averaged by games played, he still had more fppg anyway. Both teams had 6 players score tons and one each with a double; however Dan had 4 players between 80 and 100, compared to Owen with just 3 in that range.

Owens best were Dorrell Wright (202 from 4), Blake Griffen (178 from 3), Al Jefferson (150 from 4), Andre Miller (131 from 3), Rajon Rondo (130 from 3) and Chris Kaman (114 from 3); and Best for Dan were Dwayne Wade (235 from 3!!), Al Horford (160 from 4), Tony Allen (143 from 4), Carlos Delfino (122 from 3), Dirk Nowitzki (118 from 3) and Mike Conley (114 from 4).

#5 <a title="Jasmines Mob...