TooSerious

Heya all,

So I thought I would post my first topic for the year and now that the lockout is finished and teams are locked in, what better subject to talk about that trading. This article was originally written for the Herald Sun but never made it to press for one reason or another. Some of the content is a bit late now that Round 1 has completed but most of it is relevant. Rather than edit it out, I thought I would give it to you in its original format and all its glory. Please keep in mind that the target audience of this article is not seasoned veterans, but those who are new to SC/DT.

Without further ado...

A wise man once told me the most important rule of SuperCoach and that is ‘trades are like GOLD and should be treated as such”.

There are 4 key principals behind this rule and to this day, I still find it difficult to follow some of them. I will go through them now for you and give some advice on how to maximise your trades, set your trading goal and strategy, and avoid making critical trading errors. Follow me over the break...<!--more-->

The first and most crucial principal of an effective trading strategy is to never trade before the team sheets are released and if possible, wait until the Sunday teams have been released on Friday afternoon. I have been guilty of not following this rule many times in the past and have been burnt by it just as many times because anything can happen during the week, be it injuries on the training track, tweaks to game plan or changes by the selection panel, brain explosions elsewhere in the football world (a certain Collingwood player burnt me big time a few years ago), etc.

I call this problem the ‘itchy trade finger’ syndrome and for me, the only way to avoid it if you suffer from this syndrome is to resist logging into SuperCoach during the week. By all means, do your homework and go on the fantasy forums, check in with the media to get the latest info, decide on who’s out and...

Well, if nothing really- everyone loves a good brag, so lets break out the squads that weve been working on and show them off to the world.

Have you avoided any of the catastrophes so far? I know Ive been hurt by Selwood (Well, not as hurt as he is, poor guy! 14 mouth stitches! ouch!) - But was lucky to avoid Foley.

Currently sitting on 1667 from 16/23 (yes, Im counting the captain as two players so technically only 15 have played.)

Grimes, Heppell, Atley, Cox, Goodes, Higgins and Richardson to go, so Im hoping a 2300+ isnt out of the question.

Team is over the break.
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<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/my_team_2011.png" width="480px">

So, how are you going?

Also, dont forget to join in the live chat over in the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php">Live scores[/url] section, its been good fun these last few days. Man, its great to have Footy back!

well, its been a huge first week, and before I get into anything, can I just say- man its great to have the footy back!!

Its been an interesting week though, the Sub rule looks to have been a success I reckon, the concussion rule is going to come under a fair bit of scrutiny this week- I cant remember a week with so many of them happening before.

yep, concussions and huge ruck performances is what this round will be remembered for.

Now, before I go into the review, just a quick reminder to the new coaches out there. Salary changes dont happen until *after* a player plays their third game, so there is no real need to jump on any of the rookies that youve missed just yet, youve still got another week to see if its fo realsies or not.

Full review is over the break
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The season opened, as it always does, with the Carlton Blues taking on the Richmond Tigers, and as weve seen in the last few years- the Blues took out the 4 points. That said, the Tigers showed a lot of heart in the third, but once they lost their 100% conversion rate, the Blues had enough to get over the line. Unsuprisingly, Carlton dominated the DreamTeam points, but thats not what were playing here. Bryce Gibbs should have been a lock in everyones squads, but if you gambled against him, youll be lamenting his 138. He was everywhere, particularly in the final quarter. Newman scored an excellent 132 and top scored for the Tigers. Simpson (124) was prolific while Riewoldts 6 goals got him up to a 122. Do we think he can continue with that form? or will he be very up and down as he gets double/triple teamed?. The biggest result from the game though was Carlton rookie, Ed Curnow who brought in a massive 118. I can see a lot of coaches jumping the gun and trading him in this week, but as weve seen in years past- it might pay to wait one more week before doing it- his price wont move til his third game, and the more info you can get- the better! The other rookies (rookie priced)...

Alright, I know I promised you Id get the live scores done, however, I didnt manage to finish it.

I do however have the unfinished version of it though! Hopefully it works, its completely untested, but Ill be tweaking it all night (and all weekend) through the game, so you should be able to watch it unfold.

<a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10250302&process=live">Click here for the Car v Ric game[/url]

Also, the chat made it.

I was stoked to see that Jasmine is back for another year after finding this article cross my desk this morning. Enjoy her fine work- and dont forget the partial-lockout-vice-captian-trick.

Everyone is no doubt finalising their squads but the every important question is picking a captain and vice-captain. Gone are the days of perma-captain Gary Ablett which makes the task a little harder. Being Round 1 makes the decision even more tough (and Ablett isn’t even playing anyway!).

As I stated last season, however, my captain’s choice is largely determined by an analysis of the statistics (with a bit of gut feel!). I echo my word of warning last year – statistics are not determinative. For example, everyone will remember Lindsay Thomas’ huge 217 game against Carlton in Round 12. That remained his only game with a score over 100 last year. His next highest score is 96. His next highest score is a very ordinary 69.

In a game such as Supercoach, there are too many variables. I use statistics to identify trends and likely outcomes.

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Judd v. Richmond

Rd 20 2010: 146 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 95 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 136 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 102 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 5 2007: 110 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 22 2006: 131 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 3 2006: 119 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 11 2005: 182 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

Average is 127 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Notes: Pretty consistent scores against the Tigers despite being tagged by Morton (Rd 10 2010), Jackson/Deledio (Rd 15 2009) and Jackson (Rd 1 2009). Has had a good pre-season.

Murphy v. Richmond

Rd 20 2010: 137 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
Rd 1 2010: 119 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 101 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 150 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 90 SuperCoach points, 19...

Alright peoples, here we go! Round one, here it comes.

Its been a long pre-season and weve all put in the hard yards, so one important thing to remember right now is not to panic!

Try to remember what happen last year with both Podsiadly and Rockliff, or the year before that with Palmer. Good players miss round 1 sometimes, and you should back you research and your gut before jumping off!

Another thing to remember, dont forget to set your emergencies and captains early before tomorrow nights possible server crash (particularly if youre exploiting the partial lockout hole!)

And good luck everyone! Hes to 24 weeks of good fortunes.

Teams are over the break
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Carlton v Richmond


Carlton
B: Christopher Yarran, Bret Thornton, Nick Duigan
HB: Jordan Russell, Simon White, Kane Lucas
C: Heath Scotland, Bryce Gibbs, Jeremy Laidler
HF: Jeffrey Garlett, Shaun Hampson, Eddie Betts
F: Kade Simpson, Jarrad Waite, Andrew Walker
Fo: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Chris Judd
I: Andrew Carrazzo, Dennis Armfield, Mitch Robinson, Edward Curnow
E: Lachlan Henderson, Andrew Collins, Matthew Watson

Richmond
B: Chris Newman, Alex Rance, Luke McGuane
HB: Brett Deledio, David Astbury, Reece Conca
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Mitch Morton, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg
F: Matthew White, Jack Riewoldt, Bradley Helbig
Fo: Angus Graham, Nathan Foley, Daniel Jackson
I: Daniel Connors, Robin Nahas, Jake Batchelor, Bachar Houli
E: Jayden Post, Matt Dea, Ben Nason

Good to see Duigan, Conca and Murphy named, that should set some minds at ease. That said, Curnow and Batchelor on the bench- with possible sub-potential has got to have a couple of coaches worried right now!

WESTERN BULLDOGS v ESSENDON
Western Bulldogs
Wood, Markovic, Morris
Murphy, Williams, Stack
Griffen, Boyd, Ward
Higgins, Jones, Giansiracusa
Grant, Hall, Cooney
Hudson, Cross, Liberatore
Interchange from Barlow, Djerrkura, Hill, Minson, Picken,...

Theres some interest in a couple of posts that were put up last year, so Ill put them up here which could provide, or remind you of a few key ideas at this stage of the year. Something you can read- then compare to what youve selected this year.

Check them out over the break
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<a href="http://tooserious.net/planning-a-winning-team">Planning a winning team[/url]

<blockquote>
So, what makes a winning team?

Some will say picking the right rookies is the key, others will tell you that value players are where it’s at. Some believe that captain selection is the be all, while others might say your bench. Some believe that your trading strategies are what will bring home the bacon while others believe that it’s all a case of lady luck, blessing your players with a purple patch and others with an ACL.

It’s a very simple question, but for everything that people say is required to win SuperCoach, it has a very simple answer- A winning team scores the most points.
</blockquote>

<a href="http://tooserious.net/trading-some-advice">Trading advice[/url]
<blockquote>
Then I asked the question, what makes a winning team? Now I ask the question, what makes a good trade?

Funnily, the answers to both questions are the same.

A good trade scores you the most points.

So whenever I think of making a trade, the question I like to ask myself is: How many points will this trade make me over the season?
</blockquote>

Anyways, just a few things to ponder over.

Even though the finals are on now, Im sure most of us are more focused on Supercoach this week... I know I am.

It will just be a short writeup this week - over the break, Ill only review the one game from last week, and will preview the 4 games in our finals.

Weve still got plenty of spots in our DreamTeam league as well...  let us know if you want to join it.

Just before the break, Ive gotta mention the mighty Bulls! How are they going lately! pretty happy, but spewin I havent been able to watch any of their games. Lets hope Derrick Rose can keep up his good form and help me through the playoffs.

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Ok so there were only 2 real big games going on last week. DSK v Wade Machine and Elbonanzas v Pikus United. We had our first draw of the season in one of them - would have been interesting if it wasnt between two winless teams with no players in them...

In the game of the week, it was Wade Machine that dominated and powered to a 350 point win! <a href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/boxscorefull?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=15&amp;scoringPeriodId=146&amp;seasonId=2011&amp;view=matchup&amp;version=full" target="_blank">Click HERE [/url]to have a look a t the box score if you want, but here is a quick summary:

DSK actually jumped out of the blocks quickly and were leading after the first day. That lead was quickly wiped out on day 2, but there still wasnt much in it, with only 2 days remaining. But Wade Machine played well down the stretch to outscore DSK by 517 to 239 over those final 2 days combined. And DSK actually had more games played over the week than WM as well - but the difference was - DSK used all 5 acquisitions to get maximum games played, whereas WM had most of their best players playing on court and didnt actually use any acquisitions. Dans players were all far too consistent when on the court - he had a whopping 7 players score over 100, and another 3 on at least 79. WM best were Nowitzki (205 from 4), Delfino (174 from...

Alright, looks like Champion Data have tweaked the way they calculate their Supercoach points.

The article can be found <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ranking-mixture-spiced-up/story-e6frf9jf-1226025762939">here[/url]

These tweak dont look to have been used when determining new salaries, so if we take a look- we should be able to find a bit of an advantage- no matter how small. Where they really take effect is with the premiums who you are looking to get a couple of points out of.

So, lets check em out over the break

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<blockquote>
Similarly, free kicks against have gone from minus six points to minus four because Champion Data has found they are not as critical to team performance.
</blockquote>

Now, if we grab the greatest offenders from last year, we can see how much more they *should* have scored under the new formula.

NameFA

Dean Brogan4.6

Michael Osborne4

Ed Barlow4

Mark Jamar4

Darren Jolly4

Lance Franklin4

Brad Ottens4

Daniel Jackson3.86

Brock McLean3.67

Leon Davis3.67

Nathan Lovett-Murray3.67

Domenic Cassisi3.64

Cameron Ling3.56

Stephen Milne3.52

Luke Hodge3.52

Mitch Clark3.37

Brad Sewell3.33

Byron Schammer3.33

Nick Suban3.29

Colin Sylvia3.2


Makes a big case for Franklin who is automatically 4ppg under priced due to this change, but a couple of other big names are Jolly, Neon if you swing that way, Hodge when hes back from injury and Colin Sylvia who, based on this is at least 3.2ppg under priced.

<blockquote>
Turnovers are no longer marked as hard because the forward press forces more of them.
</blockquote>

Now,its unknown exactly how many points this one will actually add to a player, so Im just going to list the average TOs per game and we can speculate from their.

NameTurnovers

Matthew Boyd10.1

Dane Swan9.8

Liam Anthony9.7

Chris Judd9.4

Sam Mitchell9.2

Leigh Montagna9

Colin Sylvia8.5

Daniel Connors8.4...

Hi all,

This is not a TooSerious Competition, but nonetheless is a competition Ive been involved in the past, and I think you would all get a kick out of playing. Its run by an ex work-colleague of mine, Andrew Gigacz (who now writes Gigs Stats in The Age) and he does a good job of getting the stats for each week updated in a spreadsheet I am humble enough to say I renovated when I took over the running of what is now a 20+ year old competition for a few years.

Basically you need to tip the ladder from 1 to 17, and you get a point for every position you are out of alignment.

It costs $5 to enter, but the rewards are pretty high because there are lots of entrants (generally over 100) and being a community tipping competition, its pretty good to see that all the money goes back to the punters - 1st 2nd and 3rd.

Whats probably the most fun is that you can get your ladder compared to the complete ladders that are out in the marketplace from such "gurus" as Caroline Wilson, Robert Walls and Rohan Connolly (who most participants routinely beat up year upon year)

For more information, take a look at:
<a href="http://footyalmanac.com.au/?p=19763"> http://footyalmanac.com.au/?p=19763[/url]