TooSerious

Only 4 regular season games to go now, and it still so close - but for the first time this season, we have some teams that cannot drop out of the top 8: congratulations to Run TMC and Kings of Karlos who have both won 13 games a piece, and are 5 wins ahead of 5 teams that are sitting in ladder positions 7 onwards. Every team is still a chance to make the top 8! (except for obviously our two winless cellar dwellers/ byes)

After all the blow outs last week, it was great to see a few close games this round. Half of the live games were close ones, with 3 being decided by less than 100 points. Steve and Heaver had the closest margin, however special mention should also go to the match between Fudge and Walesy - both teams went into this game with 50% records so it was a big match - and Walesy held a slender lead going into the final day, before Fudge blew him right out of the water - winning by 136! And also i need to say that, after beating the highest scoring loser a few times this season, I now know what its like to be on the other side - losing by 80 points with a score of 1209...  would have beaten 15 other teams

We have a huge matchup this round! In importance and also length. The NBA All Star game is on, and the trade deadline also falls within this matchup. The All Star rosters have been announced with the starters as follows - East: Lebron James (Dannys Lebronts), Amare Stoudamire (Team Fezkat), Dwayne Wade (Wade Machine), Derrick Rose (Team anthak) & Dwight Howard (Kings of Karlos); and the West: Kevin Durant (Team anthak), Carmelo Anthony (Westside Hardcore), Kobe Bryant (Team Stowie), Chris Paul (Adelaide Maggots) & Yao Ming (FA - currently injured). We have a couple of days off over the All Star break - In the preview, OTB, Ill go into the schedules a bit more.

Now, over the break I will review each game of matchup 15; and preview the games coming up::::::

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Matchup 15 game reviews:

<a title="Wade Machine...

Hi all,

Ive had a peruse at the team lists, the prospectus, the form lines and just some general hunches listed here over the years.  The list that follows over the break is a grouping of players who should be able to make a jump of 20 points per game (PPG) on the listed prices on the TooSerious Stats Page (which if youve never had a look before is a beauty).

Some of these guys are certainly *** type players who have injury concerns over the years that are well documented.  The caveat I have for picking them is Ive seen ability to score, they just need to get on the park.

Noted here is how very few players I can see making a jump into Premium Land, averaging over 100 PPG, but Ill have a list of players done before the year begins of players in that awkward 80-100 average zone last year who I think can step it up in 2011.

Also it needs to be noted that its a hit and miss sort of game getting these improvers, so Id welcome discussion on players you think shouldnt have made the list, or who deserve to, particularly if you are a fan of their team, because the sort of analysis you can provide can prove vital.

Without further ado, the list, by club, by price zone:

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<div>PLAYERS WHO CAN GO UP 20 SUPERCOACH PPG
<div>
<div>ADELAIDE
<div>Dangerfield (MF) 70
<div>K Tippett (RF) 68
<div>Martin (M) 58*
<div>Knights (F) 49*
<div>---
<div>Otten (M) 38*
<div>Smith (D) 25*
<div>Callinan (MF) 19*
<div>
<div>BRISBANE
<div>Leuenberger (R) 69
<div>---
<div>Polec (M) 35*
<div>
<div>CARLTON
<div>Yarran (F) 62
<div>---
<div>Duigan (D) 21*
<div>Watson (D) 21*
<div>
<div>COLLINGWOOD
<div>Dick (F) 56*
<div>Krakouer (MF) 41*
<div>
<div>ESSENDON
<div>Gumbleton (F) 53
<div>Hurley (DF) 69
<div>Melksham (M) 56
<div>Williams (F) 48
<div>---
<div>Heppell (DM) 32*
<div>
<div>FREMANTLE
<div>Anthony (F) 59
<div>Hill (M) 76
<div>---
<div>Mzungu (MF) 23*
<div>Lower (D) 21*
<div>
<div>GEELONG
<div>Stokes (F) 68
<div>Duncan...

So, one week down in the lightning round, one more to go. We have three teams that we know are going through in Melbourne, Collingwood and the suprise winner, West Coast. While if Hawthorn dont make it through on a wildcard, Ill be shocked!

The question is, how much can we take away from these games. Two wins by West Coast looks good on paper, but with a Hawthorn seconds squad nearly running them down were it not for some woeful kicks in the last minute- And what the heck happened to Freo!? They had a lot of the ball, they just couldnt do enough with it when they got up forward.

Ah well, it is the NAB cup after all, and teams are known to play a bit of funny buggers, so well take what we can and hopefully ignore all the right things!

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West Coast.
PlayerGamesTotalAverageAdjusted Total

Dean Cox16262124

Scott Selwood15353106

Quinten Lynch1484896

Matt Priddis28341.583

Sam Butler1404080

Shannon Hurn1353570

Brad Sheppard1343468

Matt Rosa26532.565

Eric MacKenzie1323264

Tom Swift26331.563

Brett Jones1282856

Koby Stevens2562856

Jordan Jones25326.553

Mark Nicoski25326.553

Andrew Embley1262652

Bradd Dalziell25125.551

Brad Ebert1252550

Chris Masten24924.549

Nic Naitanui24924.549

Andrew Strijk1222244

Jack Darling1222244

Josh J. Kennedy1222244

Anton Hamp1191938

Andrew Gaff1171734

Ashton Hams2341734

Tim Houlihan2301530

Will Schofield1151530

Darren Glass1141428

Ashley Smith1131326

J. Oakley-Nicholls1131326

Gerrick Weedon2241224

Lewis Stevenson2241224

Mitchell Brown2241224

Ryan Neates2241224

Callum Wilson216816

Lewis Broome18816



- Dean Cox put in a monster effort. 12 touches, 5 marks and 10 hitout all in half a game. Looked in great form and certainly putting his hand up for a ruck spot.
- Scooter Selwood has made me sad that hes not a defender anymore. I think he would have been worth a punt back there- in the mids though, I cant see the...

So, what did we all think of Carlton v Collingwood v Richmond?

Personally, I thought it was a little sad seeing Richmond go out with such a whimper, but I spose when you considering they had half their team out, then it all makes sense.

Now, it was mentioned in the last post that these lightning rounds are good because it makes it tougher to decipher who will reap the rewards in the season proper, at least to those who simply use the stats in the NAB to make their calls. Hopefully that means that all you guys that have been following along at home for the off season will be at an advantage.

Anyways, just a reminder- the below stats are all DreamTeam points.

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Richmond.
PlayerGamesTotalAverageAdjusted Total

David Astbury28341.583

Mitch Morton2783978

Alex Rance27537.575

Matt White27135.571

Shane Edwards2703570

Tom Derickx2643264

Daniel Connors25929.559

Dylan Grimes1292958

Kelvin Moore1292958

Shane Tuck1292958

Jake Batchelor25527.555

Pat Contin25527.555

Reece Conca2442244

Jake King2402040

Robin Nahas2402040

Will Thursfield23919.539

Andrew Browne1191938

Ben Nason2341734

James OReilly1141428

Ben Jakobi22311.523

Mitchell Keddell2221122

Troy Taylor2201020

Brad Miller216816

Dean MacDonald2157.515

Jeromey Webberley2157.515

Tyrone Vickery2157.515

Matthew Dea2136.513

Nick Westhoff2115.511

Bradley Helbig1000


- Astbury was the Tigers top scorer, but most of those points we scored in the first game as he followed Waite around. I wouldnt read too much into just yet.
- Mitch Morton certainly did enough to stay on the radar, while he wasnt overly prolific in racking up touches (well, no-one at Richmond were), he did snag a couple of goals and looked alright.
- Derickx looked a bloody good size out there I thought. Im very interested to see how he goes through the rest of the pre-season, to keep it in perspective though, there was no Graham out there though.
-...

One thing that is going to be on everyones mind- particularly with the GC missing round 1, is how exactly will the GC be lining up!

While the NAB should answer a few questions, its nice to see that the intra-club match was of the probables vs possibles variety.

Red (Probables): Jarrod Harbrow; Alik Magin; K. Hunt; N. Krakouer; Josh Fraser; Trent McKenzie; Josh Toy; Daniel Harris; Charlie Dixon; David Swallow; Danny Stanley; Matt Shaw; Campbell Brown; Brandon Matera; Michael Rischtelli; Sam Iles; Harley Bennell; Seb Tape.

White (Possibles): Marc Lock; Mav Weller; Luke Russell; Lewis Moss; Joey Daye; Tom Nicholls; Michael Coad; Roland Ah Chee; Taylor Hine; Jack Stanley; Rex Liddy; Jack Hutchins; Dion Prestia; Liam Patrick; Daniel Gorringe; Jacob Gilbee; Jake Crawford; Jeff White.

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DNP- Gaz, Brennan, Bock, Caddy, Day, May, Taylor, Lynch, Smith, Flanagan, Wilkinson, Ablett

So in that probables team, a couple will be coming out to make room for Gaz, Brennan, Bock and maybe Caddy, Day and Smith.

Firstly, the worries- Ive seen Coad in a lot of teams (including mine!) This certainly isnt very assuring of him keeping that spot. That said, Danny Stanley performed well, and was the 5th highest SuperCoach scorer for the Gold Coast last year- so it could be worth a lookin.

Smith sitting the game out isnt great, but with any luck, well see what he can do next weekend.

Prestia is also one that could mess up a few teams. Im suprised that hes not getting a call up as I thought he looked fantastic leading up to the draft. Maybe hes not big enough to get the call up with so many young ones running around?

Early suprise package, Marc Lock doesnt look likely- even though hes in the leadership group.

From the game itself, I heard that Harris played suprisingly bad, selling his teammates into trouble. Thats not what you want from someone coming up against a team of players that arent AFL ready! That said, its just one game so keep an eye on...

Alright, Im gunna keep the other post open for pre-game discussions for the upcoming games, but Ill keep this post updated with the totals scored for each player.

First thing I want to qualify though is that Im going to solely use DreamTeam scores here- something seemed a little off with how the SuperCoach scores were calculated and I dont think that using them will completely translate well towards using in comparison with a full game. Maybe the "end-of-game" pressure stats weighted things in a funny way?

So anyways, lets take a look at the games and see what we can see.

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Adelaide.
PlayerGamesTotalAverageAdjusted Total

Brad Symes15757114

Brent Reilly15050100

Scott Thompson15050100

Brad Moran1444488

Patrick Dangerfield27537.575

Richard Douglas1373774

Brodie Martin2723672

Michael Doughty1363672

Jared Petrenko2663366

Brodie Smith2603060

Scott Stevens1303060

Phil Davis2582958

Nathan van Berlo2562856

Shaun McKernan2562856

Ian Callinan25527.555

Rory Sloane25326.553

Andy Otten2502550

Graham Johncock1252550

Taylor Walker2502550

Jason Porplyzia1232346

Richard Tambling24120.541

Ricky Henderson23718.537

Myke Cook23517.535

James Sellar1161632

Matthew Jaensch1161632

Sam Jacobs23115.531

Luke Thompson1131326

Ben Rutten2221122

Ivan Maric1111122

Jack Gunston22110.521

Daniel Talia18816

Tony Armstrong15510

Matthew Wright2636

Kurt Tippett1224


- First thing to note here is that the game that Symes, reilly and Thompson all player in was the Port game- in which they absolutely dominated.
- Dangerfield looked bloody good and will need to be watched closely through the off-season. Could he breakout this year as he promised he would last year?
- Otten got a lot of his points in the first game and looked good enough to make a lot of peoples teams. Particularly at his price!
- Callinan started slowly, but scored a 39 in the second game. Thats the kind of...

I sure do feel like putting more exclamation marks in that title, cause boy- Im excited!

So, it all kicks of tonight in the lightning round. And honestly, I dont know what to expect.

I dont know how relevant the actual "scores" will be from these games, but it will be interesting to see how various people are deployed.

The big ones for mine are:
Tamblings role, Knights and Otten and their recovery, Callinan is a huge one, Sam Jacobs is definitely one to watch and maybe even a little Dangerfield.

Sylvia, Grimes and Green are all Melbourne premiums that are on the list. Strausss roll is one to watch. The lack of Tapscott is sad. Jack Watts has been training the house down (TM), so itll be good to see if he can bring that form with him.

Port are a little bit sad in that I dont really have much on my list. Redden is probably the big one, but Ive heard good things about Jasper Pittard.

Anyways, who and what are you guys watching out for tonight?!

Alright, weve been talking a lot about structures recent. Mainly because you can review teams until youre blue in the face, but until youve seen the NAB, combined with whats happened over the pre-season, it can all blow up in your face.

Thank goodness that the NAB starting this weekend though!

But! Thats not what Im wanting to talk about here. No, what Im wanting to do is discuss the merits of the Gun and Rookies (GnR) approach, over the mid-pricers approach.

Now, I can already here some of you thinking- "But I plan to have a mixture of the two strategies", but for the sake of this article, if youre looking at running less than 4 rookies on the field, youre mid-pricing.

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So, your typical GnR team is gunna look like this
BAC- 5 prems, 2 rookies (Yes, Otten is cheaper than Swallow- hes a rookie)
MID- 2/3 Premiums, 3/4 rookies
RUC- 1/2 Premiums, 1/0 Mid pricers (Hi Petrie!)
FWD- 5 Premiums, 1 Cheapie, 1 Rookie.

In short, you got a bunch of premiums and an absolute minimum amount of midpricers.

Meanwhile, a midprice squad comes in two flavours, either they are stacked full of your true mid-priced players- your Foleys, Cotchens, Zaharakis, Knights- or they are the hybrid team that still has a fair few rookies, but is cheaping out on the premiums, drafting a division of players know as sub-premiums (Or Jabroni Premiums, depending on what circles you travel.)

Now, historically, these methods have both been viable options, but I want to run through a couple of numbers to show just how difficult it actually is to pull of a mid-priced squad these days.

Ok, consider the following statistics-

Last year, Barlow increase his average by a massive 95

Pods increased his by 76.

3 players increased by 60+, all rookies.

17 players increased by 50+, The only non-rookies were Waters and Connors. Both however were cheaper than Swallow this year, so Im gunna count them as rookies due to their pricing.

28 players increased by 40+...

Hello again!  Its been a busy few weeks for me - with supercoach starting up again...   and moving house as well.

I want to thank Steve for all the effort he put into these writeups for the last 3 weeks. Steve, you did a great job, was excellent reading them each week - and it seems to have turned things around for your team haha. While doing the writeups, you went on a winning streak, whereas my teams form nose dived - after claiming the DD trophy outright, i then lost the next 2 games before jumping back on the winners list this week - albeit with a fairly low score. Im hoping now that I am doing this again, my team can start performing as it was a few weeks back. lol.

Our league is so close at the moment. Owen and Karlos are both on 12 and 2 at the top of the Too conference, while there are four teams on 10 and 4 at the top of the Serious conference. But where it really gets close is that there are 7 teams on 50% records holding spots 7 to 13 on our overall ladder. It doesnt stop there either: the next two spots are held by teams 1 game back - Cameron who is ranked 9th on the points for ladder; and UnderAchievers who is ranked 12th on the same table. Actually those two teams are the only two that buck the trend of our points for ladder being the same as the actual standings. To explain differently - The top 12 teams are all ranked the same on the points for ladder, with Cameron and UnderAchievers in amongst them at their spots.  alright - thats still not explained really well, but Im sure most of you will know what im yakking about.

Very close at the moment anyway! So many teams still in with a chance to make playoffs! And teams at the top can still finish in any order. And, importantly, with only 5 games to go in our regular season, all teams can still mathematically miss or make the playoffs!! Thats awesome. Some huge games coming up over the next few weeks!

I have to congratulate Kings of Karlos for winning his 9th game in a row this...

Continuing on with the community generated content, weve got a piece that was submitted by Ruddy.

Now, technically it was submitted last week and Ive been sitting on it waiting for the right time to post it- but with the Rumours going round regarding Petrie at the moment, I think were fast going past its time!

So he we go- its a fantasticly comprehensive piece about rucks.

Rucks seem to be a bit of a problem this year. Do you load up on set and forget rucks, or do you try to find some value in the mid pricers. There are a couple
of different ways you can approach the ruck conundrum this year, and each one depends on a few factors.


Most people this year were set on Sandi before SuperCoach began for the year. Sandi is the top of the top in ruckmen. But he also limits who your second ruck can be.
Whether you are going in with Sandi, or you arent i will discuss who would make a good candidate for your first and second ruck.

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2 Premiums
Sandilands: Everybody knows the benefits of Big Sandilands. He averaged 22 more ppg then the next best ruckman, and he was the only ruckman to average over 100. Can he stay injury free? Specifically towards the end of the season, during Sc finals. A must have imo.

Mumford: Sydney has a bye in round 5, and one in round 19. these are nicely spaced byes, and the round 19 bye should see Mumford go into SuperCoach finals refreshed, and ready to fire. There are questions over who will be Sydneys first ruck, and it could impact on Mumfords scoring. Mumfords scoring increased while Seaby was out with injury. Can seaby stay healthy? These are all questions whose answers you need to think about before picking Mumford.

Bradley:
I wouldnt recommend having two players from the same team, and since most people will have Sandilands, that rules out Bradley. He really has only had one year of scoring like a premium ruckman, so consistency may be an issue.

Cox: West Coast...