TooSerious

Im sure everyone is aware of the tragic, tragic events that have been unfolding in Japan over the past week. But just in case Supercoach has completely taken over - have a look at <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12711226" target="_blank">THIS SITE[/url] for the latest news. Really shocking devastation happening over there!

I know that we have people who visit this site from Japan, and others with connections to Japan. I hope that JJ and others are well, and that everyone with family and friends in Japan have been able to reach them and that all is ok with them.

Only a few days ago, I was reminding people of how to donate to TS, but today I received an email (via a mailing list Im on) from the Tokyo Goannas AFL Footy Club, and I want to put this up as well - They have set up an easy way to donate money to this really important cause.

Over the break I have pasted the email in for you all to have a look at. There are links in there to a spot where you can donate money. There are 4 set amounts that you can choose from, but they are all in yen... just so you know AUD$1 will buy you about 80 yen. Therefore 500y = $6.25; 1000y = $12.50; 5000y = $62.45; and 10000y = $124.89.

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<blockquote>TOKYO GOANNAS AFL Team Earthquake Appeal

We have established an easy way to donate to the JAPAN EARTHQUAKE APPEAL. Please follow this link and The Goannas thank you in advance: **** EDIT **** There is a new URL - see 2nd comment for details *****

Dear all,

It is at this sad time that I write to you. As you will almost certainly know by now, Japan has been dealt a savage blow with the 9.0 earthquake that hit last Friday afternoon. The devastation and heartache to come from this will continue in the days, weeks, months and years ahead. The rebuilding will be of monumental proportions and only with the help and understanding of the worldwide community will things slowly return to normal....

Our friend from Bangkok, Terry, has been hard at work putting together a series of articles, detailing the current fortunes and chances of all the rookies that weve been watching over the pre-season. We all have about a week to go to select the best of these, so Im thinking the articles will be coming out pretty rapid-fire. Take a look, what do you agree with- or more importantly, what do you disagree with?

With injuries to a number of key forward rookie prospects, have run the tape over the rest of the field to see what options remain and hopefully help a few people in some of their choices. More background on individual players can be found in the Forum and Stats pages.

In addition to some research, this information has been cross-checked with Dr. DT, FF, as well as a team review in the Age. Forward rookies considered unlikely to get a run this season are not included, however, if you feel strongly enough about someone, add to the discussion below. Also, if you have any inside information on any of these prospects, please join in. The only cautionary note is that much can happen over the next 10 days (or 17 days for GC rookies). Over the duration of NAB, Prestia has gone from hot to warm – this may well happen to others as the rumours fly over the next few weeks. And in case you were wondering, Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon are light on for forward rookie prospects.

All players are below 200k, but there is also an interesting group just above that (190-300k) that may tempt you and I will try and review that group later if Walesy is up for it. In the meantime, 10 days to decide on the following (players most likely for R1 are in bold):
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Adelaide

Ian Callinan [MID] 91,700
Mature age rookie currently injured. Has a high potential as a future downgrade target.

Daniel Talia [DEF] 110,200
Has not done enough at this stage, but could get a run if opportunities open up.

Shaun McKernan [DEF] 110,200
Has had some reasonable...

One game to go - 4 teams fighting it out for the last 3 playoff spots! And two of them are playing each other!!

Owen, Heaver, Karlos, Micka and Jasmine hold the top 5 spots (and none can drop below 5th); whereas Fudge, myself (anthak), Chris88 &amp; Smitty and Dan (Dabombers) are the 4 that are trying to fit into 3.

But it all pretty much comes down to the one game...  Do Something Knicks v Wade Machine. If Dan wins: Chris and Smitty will most likely miss out on post season action (due to their inferior points for compared to the other 3); but if Dan loses: he misses out (as he is already one game back on the other 3). Obviously such a massive game for both teams!!

We also have another HUGE game this week - with Elbonanzas and Pikus United up against each other. Funny that it worked out these two teams play against each other in the last game!

Also – not long until the footy starts. We have a DreamTeam league going – for people in this NBA league – that still has spots left. If youre keen – post a comment and well put up the league code.

Over the break ive got another run home for all finals contenders, and the reviews and previews::::::::

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The run home:

<a title="Run TMC (Owen Beebe)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=19&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Run TMC[/url] v Fezkat: If W - highest 1st, lowest 1st; If L - highest 1st, lowest 2nd. (likely to finish 1st)

<a title="Team HEAVER! (David Tong)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=13&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Team HEAVER![/url] v Labronts: If W - highest 2nd, lowest 5th; If L - highest 2nd, lowest 5th.

<a title="Kings of Karlos (Sean Minetti)" href="http://games.espn.go.com/fba/clubhouse?leagueId=23530&amp;teamId=10&amp;seasonId=2011" target="_top">Kings of Karlos[/url] v Maggots: If W - highest 1st, lowest 3rd; If L - highest 3rd, lowest 3rd. (likely to finish 3rd)

<a...

So, the NAB has come and gone. Annoyingly, just like last week though, weve had another big out come our way! Tendai Mzungu has found himself with a knee injury. Thankfully, its not going to require a reconstruction, but it does look like hes going to be sitting on the injury list for at least 6 weeks. Makes for a delicious downgrade target though. With him and Callinan going off our lists in the last two weeks, I think all of us will be struggling with our F/M links at the moment, and Im starting to think that it may be worth forsaking the link with a plan to trade down to one of these two during the season to activate it. Though that does make round 6 hurt just that little bit more. Decisions, decisions.

Now, before I get into the reviews, I just wanted to give a shout out to every over in Japan- I know we havent seen the full extent of exactly how much damage has occured, but it looks like its huge- and I just want to express a good luck to everyone that is over there.

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So, Friday night saw a clash of the titans in the NAB grand final. Well, more like a titan, and his titan brother, who has really let himself go over the last few years- sitting on the coach, choking down the bigmacs and chain smoking Winnies. Though it was a different Bombers outfit than we saw run out the end of last year (if you can call that running out), who showed a lot of heart in reducing a 34 point to 3 points before Collingwood kicked away late in the game to come out 22 point winners.

<a href="http://tooserious.net/player.php?id=193&amp;pcid=13106&amp;name=Heath%20Shaw">Heath Shaw[/url] won himself the the Michael Tuck medal. He collected 25 disposals while keeping Monfries well under control. Looks to be thriving even without Maxwell in the squad. Could be a good POD from the cookie cutter defenses.
<a href="http://tooserious.net/player.php?id=421&amp;pcid=13272&amp;name=Scott%20Pendlebury">Scott Pendlebury[/url] top scored with an SuperCoach score of 119...

You might have noticed the red ad up the top there for <a href="http://www.tipfantasy.com/index.php?action=signupByReference&c=40">TipFantasy.com[/url] that appeared a few days ago. Matt from TipFantasy got hold of us last week letting us know that he was starting up a new tipping website with some pretty nifty innovations and he thought it might be something the TooSerious crowd might be interested in checking out.

The factor that really set tipfantasy apart is that their tipping competitions run over 4 weeks rather than the length of the season and that they only have a pool of a maximum of 100 people to compete against as opposed to, well, half of Victoria. Now, you do have to be a member to play, then pay $20 for each week but youre competing for a prize pool of $6000 - $1000 for the top tipster each week and $2000 for the overall winner over the 4 week period against a max of 99 others. So if you think youve got the knowledge to take out the cash, give it a look-see.

The other thing they have, is that they allow for two different modes of tipping, one is the simple tips-for-the-round thing, while the other offers a selection of 20 players, and asks you to tip the highest fantasy score out of the lot. Judging by how people here went in the iScent comp last year, I reckon thered definitely be a bunch of folk from this place in contention for the weekly $1000 in that comp as well as the overall 4 week $2000 prize!

To kick things off, theyve got a competition in which theyre giving away $5000. All you have to do accurately predict which player will score the most goals in round 1 of the AFL season , and nominate how many they will kick. It’s that easy. So <a href="http://www.tipfantasy.com/index.php?action=signupByReference&c=40">sign up[/url] for free and take a look around. Theres no commitments or payments for you to have a shot at the cash.

Things are progressing well with OUR team. There has been a bit of discussion about the team name and I think we have narrowed it down to 3 options now. We have voted for our basic structure plan, and now we are picking players.

Just wanted to put this up to remind everyone to go in and pick the players you think should make the team - We do have a forum thread going, but I realise most people would see this blog section first and foremost.

Over the break, I will outline again how to select the players you want in the team; along with a little sneak preview of the leading vote getters so far.

For anyone that hasnt donated to the site yet, and wants to get involved in this team - its easy to sort out. Just click on the Donate button up the top of this page; or <a href="http://tooserious.net/donate.php" target="_blank">HERE[/url] - follow the instructions and the donor privileges will be opened up to you in no time.

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Picking players:

Go to the profile section and into the watchlist tab.

Create a new watchlist and call it what you like, but you MUST tick the "Donor team?" checkbox, so that we can track it.

Then just add the players you want in the team to that particular watchlist. Do this the usual way on the Stats Page.

Its really easy if you already have your team loaded in, as you can click on the name of your team on the stats page, and it will bring up a list of all your players. then you just hover over the manage next to each player, and choose to add them to the donor watchlist.

So far the most popular players are Brett Deledio, Bryce Gibbs, Nick Riewoldt &amp; Brendon Goddard  - no surprises there! But the player next in line is somewhat surprising - he is revealed over in the Forum section if you want to go have a look.

I cant wait to see what comes of this!

We will run a report later in the week, and put all the players into OUR team - giving us enough time to rip it to shreds, and make any structural...

With less than 10 sleeps until the season gets underway, thought it was timely to put up a quick post around the pre-season brownlow predictions and also introduce yet another feature to this awesome site.

This year, you can record your own brownlow predictions as the season roles on - in two formats.  Firstly, your standard 3-2-1 is on offer, in line with how the votes will be given on the night.  Secondly, you can give out a total of 12 votes to as many as 6 players, with no more than 6 votes to go to any one player.  The beauty of this is, it will really establish when you are very confident in a certain player picking up the 3 - and when it aint as clear cut, you can share the love .

Your votes will be recorded and are only visible to you, however votes will be collected across all voters to feedback to the general public, and keep a running total of where the overall Too Serious predictions are at.  You do have the option to opt out of having your votes counted towards overall totals however.

So, to the predictions for 2011... (more over the break)<!--more-->Before I delve into this, lets have a look at some interesting stats.  Last year, whilst the overall winner wasnt predicted, we did manage to correctly pick out 13 of 16 team winners (which is where all the cash is ), and with the use of the 210 or other similar bet systems, a lot of people took home a very decent amount of cash.

The three team winners that werent predicted (being Sandilands, Harvey and Hayes), all shared something in common: they were all proven vote winners over the players I had in front of them, being Barlow, Swallow and Goddard.  So how can this be measured?

Well over 90% of votes are given to players who have a combined SuperCoach + DreamTeam score over 200.  So I looked into this further to see which players can consistently turn these quality fantasy scores into Brownlow votes.

I also looked into which players get noticed by the umpires, but not...

One of the biggest football-esque comps that I enjoy over the season is <a href="http://www.sportingbet.com.au/Default.aspx#&&s=Competitions-Home">Sportingbets Last Man Standing comp[/url].

Essentially its a great big pick-the-winner-each-round-or-be-eliminated style competition, but the kicker being the $50k prize at the end of it. At a pure time-spent-per-dollar-earned, its not too bad an idea to just signup and give it a crack, just. in. case.

The AFL comp is open for registration, while the NRL (and its $50k prize) gets started tonight.

So jump in there, check it out and hey- give it a crack.

*And just for full disclosure, I am in no way getting paid for this post, its more about informing you guys about a decent way to put your mad footy knowledge into a possible payday - and hey, maybe have a little fun. If anyone plays any other comps, chuck them in the comments- Id love to her about them!

Im not giving you much of a preview here, only to say that it should be a good game to watch.   Generally neither team plays the Muhammed Ali "rope-a-dope" style, so we should see a winning team from the midfield and forward of centre.   Lets hope that its a result not tainted by poor umpiring, and that the winning team does so on the back of their excellence.

Both Essendon and Collingwood have performed well in the preseason competition so far, but youve got to take your hats off to the Bombers, who have shown a bit better form in dispatching some more highly credentialled rivals than the Magpies, who have travelled further, but also played Richmond and West Coast to progress.

I cant give a tip, but youd suggest with both walesy and myself in attendance tonight, were probably not both going to go home happy at the end of proceedings.  Thats a tip I can be fairly confident of making.

In terms of the other games in the NAB Challenge, the draw and times, the teams for tonights game, and a few SuperCoach players to watch are over the break.

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Teams for tonights game:

COLLINGWOOD
B: Harry OBrien, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Brent Macaffer, Ben Reid, Heath Shaw
C: John McCarthy, Dane Swan, Sharrod Wellingham
HF: Andrew Krakouer, Chris Dawes, Luke Ball
F: Alan Didak, Travis Cloke, Leigh Brown
FOLL: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas
I/C: Leon Davis, Lachlan Keeffe, Cameron Wood, Jarryd Blair,  Simon Buckley, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Ben Johnson
Em: Ben Sinclair, Tyson Goldsack, Tom Young

ESSENDON
B: David Myers, Dustin Fletcher, Kyle Hardingham
HB: Brent Stanton, Cale Hooker, Mark McVeigh
C: Courtenay Dempsey, Jobe Watson, Jason Winderlich
HF: Angus Monfries, Michael Hurley, Jake Melksham
F: Stewart Crameri, Patrick Ryder, Leroy Jetta
Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Dyson Heppell, Heath Hocking...

So, the question was raised in the comments of the last post- Hey Walesy, reckon you could pull up the data to detail the players whos last 5 games were better than their overall average?

Hell yeah, in fact, I can do even better than that- Ive gone with the last 5 rounds, and also with the last 10 rounds.

Now, taking a quick glance over the results, there doesnt look to be too much to take out of it- but there are a few interesting points to note.

<ul>
<li>Jolly averaged almost 100 over his last 10 weeks, but only 91 over his last 5. </li>
<li>Like Jolly, Cyril performed great over his last 10 weeks, but his final 5 was only 3 points over his season average</li>
<li>Kieren Jack absolutely smashed it over his final 5 games, but is it sustainable or just a purple patch?</li>
<li>Mitch Mortons move to the midfield certainly had a big effect on his final 5 games, but will be be able to continue that form and role this year?</li>
<li>Goodes went another year starting slow- which tends to confirm what people say about him.</li>
<li>I reckon that looking at the players that fell away in the second half of the year might be a good place for some bargains. Pav, JB, Chappy, JRoo and Higgins could all potentially be underpriced due to how they finished the year.</li>
</ul>

Anyways, as I said, from an analysis point of view, it looks pretty hit and miss, but for the full results, check over the break
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Ordered by the Last 5 games
nameteam2011 Salarygamesave10510 diff5 diff

Kieren JackSYD48750022100106.6136.86.636.8

Scott D. ThompsonKAN375300227792.8110.415.833.4

Mitch MortonRIC375100127778.3105.21.328.2

Sam WrightKAN263500205465.88211.828

Leigh BrownCOL362700157585.410110.426

Dean BroganPTA335500206979.19510.126

Brent MacafferCOL399300178295.4106.413.424.4

Ben JohnsonCOL384100197990.410111.422

Daniel WellsKAN427900198885.6109.6-2.421.6

Ashton HAMSWCE352600117376.194.63.121.6

Matthew...