TooSerious

So, weve finally reached the end of another long season. Injuries have taken their toll- but the final results are in!

Now, it feels a little redundant to be reviewing the games played this week- cause hey, its not gunna help us moving forwards anymore. Now, had I planned ahead better, Id have done a year in review- but hey, since when do I plan ahead.

What I do have to announce to everyone though is the boat load of prizes that weve got to give out. Theres the <a href="http://sideways.com.au/">Sideways cup[/url] to give out. The <a href="http://footysystembet.com.au/">FootySystemBet Tipping[/url] prizes to announce. Of course, weve got the weekly <a href="http://iscent.com.au/">iScent prize to give out[/url]. And finally, the <a href="http://textoutsms.com.au/">TextOutSMS TS leagues[/url] in which the grand final winner will be taking home 1000 free online SMSs (400 for the TS20 league) thanks to the good folk at TextOutSMS, while there are cash prizes to the overall point scorers in all those leagues. $600 to first place and $100 to second in the TS50 leagues and $280 to first place in the TS20 league. Anyways, all of that will be revealed through the week!

Now comes the part of the post where I reveal exactly how badly I did in this competition. I reckon based on my final score, Ill be finishing the season in an abismal 45000 place. Ouch! But there were a bunch of bad choices that went through the year- Mattner, LeCras, Gram, Dangerfield, Hall, Shuey and Tippett were all bad selections- mad worse by the fact that I traded a few of them out at the wrong time. Next there was a couple of bad trades, or non-trades along the way. Holding Hille and his "2 week" injury while coping zero after zero was a freaking shocker, and the less I say about Pods and Rockliff the better!! Least I didnt have the darkness though... On the other side of the coin though, I reckon Ill have broken through in DreamTeam to a top 4000 finish, which is a damned improvement on...

Batton down the hatches guys- cause the grand final is underway.

A years worth of toil and research all comes down to this one weekend in August.

Theres been a lot of ups and downs this season, but lets all put our heads down and cheer on our boys one last time.

Good luck everyone!

We have good people that read this site. Good, entusiastic people. Some so enthusiastic, they add- and create their own content- so how could I not post this gem from regular commenter, Owen!
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Holeys excellent weekly brownlow post and his patent pending 210 x $1 bet system got me, and Im sure many others, very interested. So I figured Id create a spreadsheet to check other combinations of players, their odds and potential winnings based on whether they are correct or not.

For people who are interested I have created a google docs spreadsheet that people can view (at the moment I have created it so people can download to excel to play with on their own computers, but am open to suggestions).

Link: <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkML7G_k9VMbdElhZUZyWG9iVlp0ZFhlNlpscVRJWWc&hl=en&authkey=CL-dv_wG#gid=0">Spreadsheet[/url]

Good ol google supplied me with a VB code to output the different combinations - anyone interested can search for "Myrna Larson combinations" and you should be able to find the code."

Hopefully Holey doesnt mind me spreading his idea.

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Now, Im just gunna throw this up here as well- it’s still gambling- and with all gambling there is a chance that you’ll be walking away with nothin’.

So the standard of “don’t bet money that you can’t afford to lose” still definitely comes into play.

That being said- multi-ing on the brownlow has fast become the gambling highlight of my year with an informed minority doing very well for themselves. Seriously though- read around, do some research and come up with your own 10 players who you honestly believe are a good shot to make it- and with some solid research (as Holey has done all year) – then a hit rate of 6/10 if definitely more than achievable, with any more hits than that making for some potentially lucrative profit. (keep in mind, a 250k payout for a 200 dollar...

Just thought Id put in a quick thread so people can submit their thoughts on possible meetups:

1) Catchup at end of year for TS readers - possibly in different states if it can be arranged.

2) If people would like to do anything during the season, sort of like a grill team, hitting a restaurant for a feed and footy discussion, say on a weekly basis, we arrange one of the regular posters to be there, so you can ask questions directly.  This could also be arranged in different states if people were willing.  Really a suck-and-see sort of approach.

Discuss

Bloody hell! Some *huge* outs right about now! Its really become a battle of attricion this finals business!

On the plus side though, so huge outs have been offset with a number of big ins- so if youre lucky, youll be fielding a full squad without the need to trade (though Im gunna guess that 95% of you guys are out of trades. ). Of everyone, Hodge is gunna hurt the most, with no backmen coming back in for relief.

INS: Pavlich, Sandilands, Fyfe, Hayes, Ryder, ROK, Sylvia
OUTS: Podsidly, Hodge, Didak, Cooney, Watson, Brown, Mumford, Rohan

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FRIDAY AUGUST 27Fremantle v Carlton
Subiaco Oval @ 8.40pmFremantle
B: Dylan Roberton, Antoni Grover, Greg Broughton
HB: Roger Hayden, Luke McPharlin, Jay van Berlo
C: Garrick Ibbotson, David Mundy, Stephen Hill
HF: Chris Mayne, Matthew Pavlich, Michael Walters
F: Jesse Crichton, Michael Johnson, Matthew de Boer
Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Nick Suban, Paul Duffield
I/C: Adam McPhee, Paul Hasleby, Anthony Morabito, Nathan Fyfe
Emg: Rhys Palmer, Des Headland, Hayden BallantyneIn: Hasleby, Pavlich, McPhee, Hayden, Sandilands, Mundy, Hill, Mayne, Morabito, Fyfe
Out: Kepler Bradley, Byron Schammer, Steven Dodd, Ryan Murphy, Rhys Palmer, Clayton Hinkley, Tim Ruffles (knee), Clancee Pearce, Justin Bollenhagen, Zac ClarkeCarlton
B: Marcus Davies, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph
HB: Dennis Armfield, Paul Bower, Jordan Russell
C: Kade Simpson, Chris Judd, Shaun Grigg
HF: Chris Yarran, Jarrad Waite, Andrew Carrazzo
F: Jeff Garlett, Lachie Henderson, Eddie Betts
Foll: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs
I/C: David Ellard, Shaun Hampson, Mitch Robinson, Heath Scotland
Emg: Joe Anderson, Chris Johnson, Andrew WalkerIn: Joseph, Hampson, Yarran
Out: Richard Hadley, Andrew Walker, Sam Jacobs

SATURDAY AUGUST 28Geelong v West Coast
Skilled Stadium @ 1.10pmGeelong
B: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Tom Lonergan
HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Joel Corey
C: Paul Chapman, James...

Walesy and I have tested the ability to put a message up into the iPod world as well with podcasting, that can be either listened to from the page itself, or, better yet, for those who are regular podcast recipients, get the feed straight onto their device, so that the trip into work can give some benefit.

The main things wed probably put on a weekly feed is a round review, Brownlow votes, Best Buys, Captains, League update and maybe one on fantasy football strategy.  But its really up in the air at the moment, and if people want to either own or assist in the process Im keen to work that out also.  Id suggest the total length of the podcast would want to be a snappy 15-20 min.

What would you like to see this site provide into the future?  This could be not restricted to podcasts, but could be site design (add a leagues page, or a fantasy football FAQ, or a dedicated 4-4-2 blog so those not interested in soccer dont have to wade through it), what stats you most want (we will hunt them down if we can get them), the competitions and the prizes you receive from there - all these are up for grabs.   We could do a 2 minute video/vodcast that simply deals with improving your team.   And we can use your unique skills to make the site better.

So, we put the question to the members, and ask for suggestions.   Of course Walesy and I have plans for world domination of this site with its current international reach, but its the simple suggestions that will carry the day into the future.

Looking forward to seeing what our iSerious tech heads and footy nuts come up with!

Lucas

Midweek saw the reds take an away 3 nil loss to Man City with Tevez scoring a brace. that makes the braces for the round Tevez, Anelka, Kalou, Nolan, Gardner, Elmander, Bale &amp; Hangeland (own goal ) as well as hatricks to Carroll &amp; Walcott. 22 goals from 10 players...WOW!

The 5-A-Side comp is firming up with Tooserious1 undefeated after 2 rounds and playing The Wenches this week. TossersRUs and TooSeriousTree are winless and TooSeriousToo are 1 and 1. This week, the Trees are playing top of the table Les Pommes De Terre, the Twos are having a crack at The Libertines, and the Tossers are going head to head with the Coonts Like A Hippos Yawn.

Last rounds results:
TooSeriousToo lost 3-2 with Elevation and UnderAchievers winning.
TooSeriousTree lost 3-1 with Tricky winning and MattyBomb22 drawing.
Tooserious1 won 3-2 with StKildaThunder, Gumby and Anthak winning.
TossersRUs lost 3-2 with Soups and NedFlanders winning.

For those who want to check <a href="http://www.fanfooty.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&amp;t=2031&amp;start=0#p48070">http://www.fanfooty.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&amp;t=2031&amp;start=0#p48070[/url] will give you the results and the next weeks fixtures.

Shlocky from fanfooty.uk puts together a weekly video review of the results and it is hilarious and worth watching so here is GW 2 <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko5foyvm-_E">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko5foyvm-_E[/url] and here is GW 1 <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdHFppXwQOM">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdHFppXwQOM[/url] but a word of warning, dont watch this through speakers at work or with kids around...

So we all know Milners move was completed and he was BOG on debut for City but the big transfer news for this is one for all you Reds out there in that Alberto Aquilani has been loaned out to Juventus. He signed mid last season and has barely made an impact at Anfield. Alessandro Diamanti has signed for Brescia from West Ham United....

OK.  Its Grand Final time, and Im playing two this week. 

I feel, well not quite as excited as if Collingwood gets to the big dance this year, but certainly chuffed that for another year, in some reasonably competitive leagues against mates and work colleagues, my team has stumbled, bumbled, steadied, targeted and brought down the leaders one by one.

Now for the big dance.  I have no trades.  They went ages ago.  But what I do have is a team running on momentum, adrenaline, and the joy of Phil Davis getting me over the line with late withdrawal-emergency combination in successive knockout matches (JB/ROK).  Once is a fluke, twice is a very happy coincidence.   Third time may invoke my thoughts that there has been some divine intervention over the team this season.

And now onto my final Best Buys advice for the year.<!--more-->

Let me put it very simply.  Get the very best player/s you can for the money and trade/s you have left.  Theres no point ending the season with oil in the tank.   I prefer running off the smell of an oily rag anyway.

As such, Im not going to give you selections, Ill leave you to ask in the comments and give the forum the chance to answer the questions in their own right.  What I will do, however, is offer some of the strategies you can employ to make sure that you dont experience any Collywobbles this weekend.

In terms of what you can do, there are some varied strategies.  Each has merit.

1) Play the man
Neutralise the opponents best chance of beating you.   If you have a team that you can back one-on-one, but have a nagging suspicion that a player will tear you apart, trading them in can then make your week a lot more relaxing.

2) Play the ball
Get the best PPG average player you can get in terms of "points on the ground" increase in whatever position that might be.  You might actually find trading in the best PPG player isnt as strong as trading in a fallen premium who can give you that one...

Being Grand Final week for Supercoachers, I thought that I would provide an in depth look at our captain’s choice for this round. A word of warning in my maiden write up – statistics are not determinative. For example, everyone will remember Lindsay Thomas’ huge 217 game against Carlton in Round 12. That remains his only game with a score over 100. His next highest score is 96. His next highest score is only 69. Records are meant to be broken and statistics always change.

In a game such as Supercoach, there are too many variables. I use statistics to identify trends and likely outcomes (and by the way, I am not a statistician!!). One final rider – and that is, I am generally quite conservative and will normally take the safer option when it comes to picking a captain.

From a purely non-statistical point of view, it is clear that the top 4 teams are locked in and do not have much to play for. Such teams may be afflicted by “general soreness” or the flu. Geelong and St Kilda are both in this category but a captain from these teams is looking most attractive because of their opponents for the round (West Coast at Skilled Stadium, and Adelaide at AAMI respectively). Geelong and St Kilda have both beaten those respective opponents in 7 out of their previous 8 games (back to 2005). Winning teams generally generate higher SuperCoach scores for their players.
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Geelong Players

Ablett v. West Coast

Rd 11 2010: 121 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 175 SuperCoach points, 43 disposals
Rd 22 2008*: 107 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 169 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
Rd 7 2007*: 106 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 10 2006*: 95 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals

Average is 129 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Note: His home ground average is only 103 with 23 disposals against West Coast. However, his average at home this year is a huge 147. Had to play with a bandage on his hand after a Carlton player...

<a href="http://iscent.com.au"><img style="float: left; margin: 0 10px 10px 0;" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/iScent.com_.au_RGB.jpg" alt="" />[/url]

So, its the second last week of the year and once again were here to check just who won this weeks iScent prize. I gotta say it looks like it was a tough week for tipping with this weeks winning entry hitting five 10 pointers!

Still, it was good enough for Kel to take out the win with a more than adequate 58 points.

Now, just a reminder for everyone- next week is the final week for the <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/">FootySystemBet[/url] tipping comp, and if my memory serves me correctly, well be giving away two memberships to their site for next year. One for the weekly score and one for the overall.

Just to remind you of their skills, theyve managed to tip at a <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/index.php?page=history-and-stats">56%[/url] ratio- though I reckon prior teams resting for final, they were tracking well above 60%. Which is more than enough to prove their record- anyone who won a membership earlier in the year take advantage of it? Let us know!

For the record, the winning team was:

namescoreDifference

Gary Ablett1043

Nick Riewoldt1014

Luke Hodge1046

Scott Pendlebury1046

Adam Goodes527

James McDonald129

Michael Rischitelli21

Brent Harvey1062


And the full results over the break...
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UserscoreDifference

Kel58268

daveo1560206

bfish66951

gnewitt67212

nawtay67180

Danaz68213

fozzer69185

joshuac70246

The Mob Goes Wild71269

ajackl0771280

celinef75309

tyze75186

spuddy76263

mattybomb2278300

simonoz79214

lw80277

Superblues83361

matty.hutch84174

anthak84177

Micka84327

Pickle88171

prem89344

jinnasaur91222

payney392355

obeebe92333

buzz94204

robert naylor95807

griff99343

worksafe101388

haysiebbh102357

parlabane103247...