TooSerious

OK.  Its Grand Final time, and Im playing two this week. 

I feel, well not quite as excited as if Collingwood gets to the big dance this year, but certainly chuffed that for another year, in some reasonably competitive leagues against mates and work colleagues, my team has stumbled, bumbled, steadied, targeted and brought down the leaders one by one.

Now for the big dance.  I have no trades.  They went ages ago.  But what I do have is a team running on momentum, adrenaline, and the joy of Phil Davis getting me over the line with late withdrawal-emergency combination in successive knockout matches (JB/ROK).  Once is a fluke, twice is a very happy coincidence.   Third time may invoke my thoughts that there has been some divine intervention over the team this season.

And now onto my final Best Buys advice for the year.<!--more-->

Let me put it very simply.  Get the very best player/s you can for the money and trade/s you have left.  Theres no point ending the season with oil in the tank.   I prefer running off the smell of an oily rag anyway.

As such, Im not going to give you selections, Ill leave you to ask in the comments and give the forum the chance to answer the questions in their own right.  What I will do, however, is offer some of the strategies you can employ to make sure that you dont experience any Collywobbles this weekend.

In terms of what you can do, there are some varied strategies.  Each has merit.

1) Play the man
Neutralise the opponents best chance of beating you.   If you have a team that you can back one-on-one, but have a nagging suspicion that a player will tear you apart, trading them in can then make your week a lot more relaxing.

2) Play the ball
Get the best PPG average player you can get in terms of "points on the ground" increase in whatever position that might be.  You might actually find trading in the best PPG player isnt as strong as trading in a fallen premium who can give you that one...

Being Grand Final week for Supercoachers, I thought that I would provide an in depth look at our captain’s choice for this round. A word of warning in my maiden write up – statistics are not determinative. For example, everyone will remember Lindsay Thomas’ huge 217 game against Carlton in Round 12. That remains his only game with a score over 100. His next highest score is 96. His next highest score is only 69. Records are meant to be broken and statistics always change.

In a game such as Supercoach, there are too many variables. I use statistics to identify trends and likely outcomes (and by the way, I am not a statistician!!). One final rider – and that is, I am generally quite conservative and will normally take the safer option when it comes to picking a captain.

From a purely non-statistical point of view, it is clear that the top 4 teams are locked in and do not have much to play for. Such teams may be afflicted by “general soreness” or the flu. Geelong and St Kilda are both in this category but a captain from these teams is looking most attractive because of their opponents for the round (West Coast at Skilled Stadium, and Adelaide at AAMI respectively). Geelong and St Kilda have both beaten those respective opponents in 7 out of their previous 8 games (back to 2005). Winning teams generally generate higher SuperCoach scores for their players.
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Geelong Players

Ablett v. West Coast

Rd 11 2010: 121 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 175 SuperCoach points, 43 disposals
Rd 22 2008*: 107 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 169 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
Rd 7 2007*: 106 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 10 2006*: 95 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals

Average is 129 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Note: His home ground average is only 103 with 23 disposals against West Coast. However, his average at home this year is a huge 147. Had to play with a bandage on his hand after a Carlton player...

<a href="http://iscent.com.au"><img style="float: left; margin: 0 10px 10px 0;" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/iScent.com_.au_RGB.jpg" alt="" />[/url]

So, its the second last week of the year and once again were here to check just who won this weeks iScent prize. I gotta say it looks like it was a tough week for tipping with this weeks winning entry hitting five 10 pointers!

Still, it was good enough for Kel to take out the win with a more than adequate 58 points.

Now, just a reminder for everyone- next week is the final week for the <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/">FootySystemBet[/url] tipping comp, and if my memory serves me correctly, well be giving away two memberships to their site for next year. One for the weekly score and one for the overall.

Just to remind you of their skills, theyve managed to tip at a <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/index.php?page=history-and-stats">56%[/url] ratio- though I reckon prior teams resting for final, they were tracking well above 60%. Which is more than enough to prove their record- anyone who won a membership earlier in the year take advantage of it? Let us know!

For the record, the winning team was:

namescoreDifference

Gary Ablett1043

Nick Riewoldt1014

Luke Hodge1046

Scott Pendlebury1046

Adam Goodes527

James McDonald129

Michael Rischitelli21

Brent Harvey1062


And the full results over the break...
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UserscoreDifference

Kel58268

daveo1560206

bfish66951

gnewitt67212

nawtay67180

Danaz68213

fozzer69185

joshuac70246

The Mob Goes Wild71269

ajackl0771280

celinef75309

tyze75186

spuddy76263

mattybomb2278300

simonoz79214

lw80277

Superblues83361

matty.hutch84174

anthak84177

Micka84327

Pickle88171

prem89344

jinnasaur91222

payney392355

obeebe92333

buzz94204

robert naylor95807

griff99343

worksafe101388

haysiebbh102357

parlabane103247...

One more week until the luck factor is gone, and it all comes down to analysis.  And with just the one week to go, its worth a look at which teams may require the final round to decide their overall votewinner:

Adelaide: Scott Thompson should be relatively safe here 12 (12)

Brisbane: Very interesting, I have Brown on 11 based on raw numbers, with an adjusted tally of (11), whilst Rischitelli on 12 raw votes, but only (9) adjusted.  Raw tally is based on 3,2 &amp; 1 given for each game, whereas the adjusted tally takes into consideration both cheap votes, and games where the raw numbers sees them say 4th or 5th best on ground.

Carlton: Judd is home 17 (16)

Collingwood: Swan home on 37 (33), with Pendlebury making up ground late on 19 (18)

Essendon: cant see them winning another game, so Watson should be safe on 8 (9).  Fletcher the only danger on 6 (5)

Fremantle: may come down to Sandilands playing or not - currently have him on 13 (13), with Barlow still marginally ahead on 15 (14)

Geelong: 3 left in contention: Ablett 21 (19), Selwood 19 (17) and Chapman 16 (16), with Bartel not too far behind 16 (14)

Hawthorn: Hodge the safest bet going around on 27 (24)

Melbourne: Probably as wide open as it gets, with one game to play, the following are a chance: Sylvia 8 (8), McDonald &amp; Green 7 (7), Frawley 6(4), and Moloney and Bruce 5 (5).

North Melbourne: Swallows game on the weekend has broken the deadlock he has shared with Harvey: 15 (14) v 12 (12)

Port Adelaide: 3 chances - K Cornes 10 (10), followed by Cassisi and Boak 8 (7).

Richmond: 3, maybe 4 chances here - I have Deledio in front and he is definitely good value 11 (9), followed by Tuck 8 (7), and Riewoldt and Newman 5 (6).

St Kilda: very similar to Geelongs four: Goddard 19 (18), Hayes 18 (17), Montagna 16 (15) and Dal Santo probably a touch far away 15 (13)

Sydney: Goodes home 15 (14)

West Coast: Priddis home, but only four wins for the year so not too many...

Hello again EPL fans,

What a weekend we had in the worlds best football league. Who would have thought we would see 3 drummings to tune of 6-0. Chelski and Newcastle (against Villa - could be strife brewing in the midlands) did the job over their respective opponents away from home, while Arsenal returned to form at the Emirates against a lowly Blackpool.

In the round of braces, Anelka &amp; Kalou each scored a brace for the Blues, as did Nolan for the Jordies but the big news of the round was a couple of hatricks scored by Theo Walcott and Roy Carroll (who were both amazing value in FPL at the start of the round).

Other results saw Tim Cahill open his account for the season against Wolves but it was not enough and the Toffees had to settle for a draw after an Ebanks-Blake strike levelled the scores, although there was a late chance for the Tofs to take the 3 points.

Fulham scored 3 second half goals at the Cottage against a Man Utd outfit that was missing Rooney (fantasy coaches cringe) but the scores ended up 2 all after Hangeland made up for his own goal with a late strike to split the points.

Craig Gardner also scored a brace at home to Blackburn to give the Brumies there first win of the season, while West Brom opened their account with a 1-nil win over Sunderland. West Ham remain pointless after an Elmander brace and an own goal from Matthew Upson but this result could have gone the other way if Carlton Cole had of converted a penalty chance.

The Yids put 2 past Stoke City to leave the Potters waiting to open there account for the season thanks to a brace from Gareth Bale (the second was a cracker), but the win did not come without controversy as a late equaliser for the Potters that seemed to clearly cross the line was not given by the referee.

So with one game to go for this round, Chelsea remain on top as the only team to take full points for the season with an amazing GD of 12 early into the season, while Wigan bring up the...

So, we appear to have just finished the penultimate round of the year- heres hoping that youve all managed to score at least 1 grand final appearance.

Anyways, this round saw a fair bit of carnage fly our way- but checking the comments- there have definitely been a few bit scores!

The week opened with Geelong putting Carlton to the sword, though I reckon the Blues looked alright- reckon if Judd can get back onto form, they could definitely cause a bit of an upset in september. Chappy top scored for the game with a 133, but didnt do enough to bring his salary back to $500k- remind me next year to never pay more than $500k for any forward upgrade! Enright level him on 133 while Gibbs pulled in 130 off 26 gutsy touches. The boy copped a fair wack from Pods (whos looking to sit out the SuperCoach grand final for it). As mentioned, Judd was off the boil, disappointing with 75 and for next years bargain- Coreys 63 could make him a delightful price if he can get over his knee right (big risk for mine though).

Next up we saw the Saints take on the Tiges. Richmond put out up a spirited effort but couldnt manage to get over the line in the final quarter. Not suprisingly though with Montaga scoring 172 and Dal Santo 170. Lil Riewoldt looked back to his best with a massive 7.1 and 159 points. At the other end though, Kozi kkicked 5 (112) whil Roo Snr managed a mighty 136 kicking 3.3. Connors went alright with an 85 impressing over Dustins meek 40. But Im hoping youve all upgraded them by now!

Hawthorn guarenteed their finals appearence with a thumping of the Fremantle seconds team by a massive 116 points. Burgoyne once again top scored for the hawks, with a 171- talk about hitting form at the right time of the year! Gibson came next with a 148 and as youd expect in a gamae where Hawthorn dominates, Franklin took out 3rd with 5.1 for 129. Broughton top scored for the Dockers and for mine is playing a great role- which would make him excellent value as a DEF...

Its the penultimate round. Kicking off with the Blues V the Cats.

Carn Gaz, if there was ever a time to shine as captain! (Or yanno, Roo for the betting man)

Also, for the EPL crew out there- theres a couple of other mini-games over on the FanFooty forum that you might like to have a crack at:
Durty Fooker (Pick a player who you think will get a red/yellow card)
<a href="http://www.fanfooty.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2169">viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2169[/url]

Choose Wisely (Pick highest points player in FPL week not picked already)
<a href="http://www.fanfooty.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2168">viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2168[/url]

Alright, just a quick post cause its late-

EPL and A-League movement predictions are up and running on the old TS.

edit- theres a EPL/A League link up the top there, just logout once youre there to get back!

Anyways, Ill get it more streamlined in the future- I just figured that you guys would want to know who to trade into.

Also, salary movements are not accurate- well only know what that will be after round 3; however, its all relational- so it should be a good enough guide.

Also, youll get to see the original TS in all its retro glory.

One last thing, when you get in, youll need to change the round back to round 1 (round 2 for ALeague) - click on the round number and it then allows you to change it. )

So check it out- theres a good chance that its buggy and slow- but hey, its completely untested since the server move- but it looked like it went alright when I was in there.

So, do we trust that the Browndog is back? Or do we panic because Pav is out? Theres some good ins this week, put just as many outs. Hayes having a break makes my brownlow bet want to cry- he was meant to be best on ground these last two weeks.

Oh, and someone call Harvey- Tell him that "soreness" is too "obvious" and makes a bit of a "mockery" of everything- at least be a little more specific about the soreness.

INS: Corey, Rioli, Ball, Rohan, Cooney, Grant, Brown, Hurn
OUTS: Hayes, Pavlich, Mundy, Hille, Bock, Knights, Vince, Higgins, Maguire, Sheppard
Extended Bench: Trengove

Full teams are over the break.

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Friday August 20Geelong v Carlton
MCG, 7.40pmGEELONG
B: David Wojcinski, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Darren Milburn, Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor
C: Paul Chapman, James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Shannon Byrnes, Cameron Mooney, Daniel Menzel
F: Steve Johnson, James Podsiadly, Travis Varcoe
Foll: Mark Blake, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett
Int: Corey Enright, Joel Corey, Mathew Stokes, Tom Hawkins
Emg: Taylor Hunt, Jeremy Laidler, Simon HoganIn: Corey, Blake, Taylor
Out: Jeremy Laidler, Taylor Hunt, Brad Ottens (illness)CARLTON
B: Dennis Armfield, Michael Jamison, Marcus Davies
HB: Jordan Russell, Paul Bower, Bryce Gibbs
C: Heath Scotland, Richard Hadley, Kade Simpson
HF: Jeff Garlett, Jarrad Waite, Marc Murphy
F: Eddie Betts, Lachie Henderson, Shaun Hampson
Foll: Robert Warnock, Chris Judd, Aaron Joseph
Int: Andrew Carrazzo, David Ellard, Shaun Grigg, Mitch Robinson
Emg: Sam Jacobs, Setanta OhAilpin, Andrew WalkerNo changeSaturday August 21

St Kilda v Richmond
Etihad Stadium, 2.10pmST KILDA
B: J.Gram, J.Blake, S.Gilbert
HB: C.Jones, S.Fisher, J.Gwilt
C: B.Goddard, N.Dal Santo, F.Ray
HF: A.McQualter, J.Koschitzke, L.Montagna
F: B.Peake, N.Riewoldt, S.Milne
Foll: B.McEvoy, D.Armitage, A.Schneider
Int: S.Dempster, L.Miles, A.Pattison, J.Geary
Emg: T.Simpkin,...

Hi all,

Welcome to one of the crucial Best Buys sessions.  Its important now that with everything on the line in the leagues you have a team that can win two weeks.  Most players are now struggling with not enough cover, so youll be copping players like Phil Davis in starting teams left right and centre, let alone seeing zero a few times.

The advice to give is more for next season.  In the process of getting your team together, think about the future MPP availability, but not at the expense of the starting list.  The MPP is crucial to the extent that it allows you to switch bench players to and from the side.  Im not convinced that my midfield was up to scratch this year having to cover a MF option.  If none of the good midfielders are MFs - and Im talking premium-good - then Id be thinking the flat starting six of strong mids is the way (and the only way) to go if you are looking for big things.

My trading advice for this week - do whatever it takes to win.  You want to play the GF.  I know you might blow all your trades, but for the sake of one game, I think its worth it.

Oh, and by the way, with my two judicious trades, and the performance of Phil Davis covering for J Brown, I managed to win one of my more important league battles.  Im up against it this week, but theres still hope as I beat my opponent when he had the bye by a clear amount, and hes going to need some trades too this week to cover weaknesses.  So long as I dont get stung in the same manner, it might end up a tight one.

<!--more-->OK so were really after premium options here but this week Ill do it a little different.  Its basically if you have X to spend/trade into.

I will set the low bar at sub 400, then sub 500, then anyone left.  Per position, top 5, in personal order of preference.  Lets go, remembering that Im literally trying the trade mainly for this round, and the next.  So some choices could seem a bit random.

Sub 400
DEF - Gilbee (if healthy),...