TooSerious

So, its half time.

The Eagles have gotten off to a great start and NitNat is tearing it up!

Its not all roses just yet though, Kerr has done a hammy.

Lets see if theyve do enough to not fade out as they have so far this year. Carn you bombers!!

So, the teams are out.

The big outs and ins are:

IN: Davis, Shaw, Judd, Brennan, Farmer, Lobbe

OUT: Shuey, Stanton, Bock, Waite, McLean, Franklin, McGrath, Clark, Newman, Connors, Roberts, Riewoldt

With the following to watch on the extended bench.

Macdonald, Scully, Bartel, Duncan and Gray. Though I reckon Duncan is the only one we need to keep a close eye on.

Teams are over the break
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ROUND FOUR
Friday April 16
West Coast v Essendon at Subiaco Oval, 6.40pm

Saturday April 17
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Adelaide v Carlton at AAMI Stadium, 2.40pm
Collingwood v Hawthorn at the MCG, 7.10pm
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs at the Gabba, 7.10pm

Sunday April 18
Richmond v Melbourne at the MCG, 1.10pm
Geelong Cats v Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium, 2.10pm
St Kilda v Fremantle at Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm

WEST COAST v ESSENDON
West Coast
B: Matt Spangher, Darren Glass, Brett Jones
HB: Andrew Embley, Will Schofield, Beau Waters
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Bradd Dalziell
HF: Chris Masten, Josh Kennedy, Ashton Hams
F: Dean Cox, Mitch Brown, Mark LeCras
Foll: Nic Naitanui, Daniel Kerr, Adam Selwood
I/C: Brad Ebert, Ashley Hansen, Pat McGinnity, Scott Selwood
Emg: Ben McKinley, Ashley Smith, Tom Swift

In: Hams, McGinnity
Out: Luke Shuey (knee), Tom Swift

New: Ashton Hams (South Fremantle/rookie list)

Essendon
B: Henry Slattery, Tayte Pears, Dustin Fletcher
HB: Courtenay Dempsey, Cale Hooker, Nathan Lovett-Murray
C: Kyle Reimers, Jobe Watson, Jake Melksham
HF: Sam Lonergan, Scott Gumbleton, Bachar Houli
F: Jason Winderlich, Michael Hurley, David Hille
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Andrew Welsh, David Zaharakis
I/C: Mark Williams, Travis Colyer, Heath Hocking, Ricky Dyson
Emg: Alwyn Davey, Brent Prismall, Darcy Daniher

In: Hurley
Out: Brent Stanton (back)

NORTH MELBOURNE v SYDNEY SWANS
North Melbourne
B: Michael Firrito, Scott...

Jonathan Brown joins Nick Riewoldt and Michael Barlow at the top of the leaderboard after another 5 goal haul in Round 3 - which was enough to give him 1 vote and join the leaders on 6.  Who would have though 2 key position forwards and a rookie would be leading the brownlow count after the first three rounds?

Ben McGlynn now finds himself in fourth position with a best on ground performance against the tigers to go with his 5 goal haul the week prior.  8 goals in two weeks - and we cant even get him in as a forward! (would have been a nice unique replacement for Roo...).

Two matches of the round were on Sunday in my opinion, where the Hawks v Dogs game brought about some fantastic individual games (couldnt squeeze BBBBBBH in to my top 6, let alone the top 3), and Freos upset win over the Cats saw the return to form for the little master.

Each week Ill be nominating a guaranteed three - one you can bet the house on.  This week it belongs to Brent Harvey, who was simply monumental in the win over West Coast.  Kane Cornes and Jonathan Brown are my guaranteed threes for the opening two rounds.

Votes over the page:
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Saints v Pies
3. S. Gilbert, 2. J. Gram, 1. L. Hayes......Goddard, Baker, Dal Santo

Roos v Eagles
3. B. Harvey, 2. D. Wells, 1. L. Anthony.......Bastinac, Priddis, Rawlings

Power v Lions
3. M. Rischitelli, 2. J. Sherman, 1. J. Brown........Salopek, Maguire, Rich

Swans v Tigers
3. B. McGlynn, 2. H. Grundy, 1. J. Bolton........Malceski, McVeigh, Martin

Blues v Bombers
3. D. Fletcher, 2. J. Watson, 1. N. Lovett-Murray........Dyson, Simpson, Pears

Demons v Crows
3. James McDonald, 2. J. Frawley, 1. J. Grimes........Goodwin, Burton, Bennell

Bulldogs v Hawks
3. M. Boyd, 2. R. Griffen, 1. C. Rioli........Hodge, Cooney, Gilbee

Dockers v Cats
3. M. Pavlich, 2. G. Ablett, 1. P. Chapman........Hill, Morabito, Sandilands

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Leaderboard
6. M. Barlow, J. Brown, N....

Hi all,

Just was doing some future planning and was thinking well it would be nice to know that there are some juicy downgrade targets across the board.  But with so many good prospects getting games regularly and early, we might not be able to get good cash cow $ plus handy bench coverage as we have done in the past.

What we are looking for are players who will remain under 150k, preferably in the 80-100 zone in the important Round 8-12 trade zone.  Assuming for all the noobs that this is when the midfield rookies reach their peak, and you can trade them out as they struggle to hit breakevens.

The question is who are the likely targets?  I will look at each position (over the break).

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Defence:
Chris Schmidt from the Crows started late, may have average job security (Bock, Stevens, Rutten) but scored well on the weekend.  One to keep an eye on.
Andrew Moore, early draft pick from Port.  Got a taste, has the DEF/FWD ability (only really activatible with Waite though..) seems a slow burner but could be good coverage later in the season.
Jarrad Blight.  Big wraps on this Pie junior, but job security is hard in a strong Pies team.  Has the talent and will score if he gets games.  10 games max youd reckon.
Jeremy Webberley from Richmond.  That should be enough to have neon signs saying Buyer Beware, but might get games soon.  3 by round 10, and regular after that would perfectly suit Waters/Maguire upgrades.
Marcus Davies from Carlton.  Apparently the Blues are impressed and might get a run if they want to blood a few kids mid to late season.  (Finals aspirations gone if they lose this week?)
Talia and Davis from the Crows - got Preseason Time, but not much else.  If the Crows bomb further this year, these two with MPP F/D will have to come into consideration.
Injury Watch - for mine its Howard and Sheppard.  One with great ability to come in, one with a great team who can lift his scores.  Ill leave you to work out...

So, Ive finished the <a href="http://tooserious.net/tipping.php?page=tipping">competition pages[/url]. Except for a little prettying up of course.

Now, when you click on the Competitions tab, you hace several options.

You can click on "Tipping" or "Sideways Cup" to switch to either of these modes.

Once here, you can click on "Detail" or "ladder".

Detail is where you enter in your Tips for the Tipping competition.

For the Sideways Cup, it will let you enter in your SuperCoach Reference number. There is also an "Upload team" button that will upload your team into TooSerious.

If you want to get your DreamTeam Team into TooSerious, currently youll need to enter your DreamTeam Ref on the accounts tab, then come to this page, click Save and then Upload Team.

The Ladder page for both competitions will show you the ranking for each competition. You can sort both ladders based on the current round or on overall.

Let me know how it goes, or if theres any funny business that occurs.

Competition results are over the break
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<a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/FootySystemBet.png">[/url]

This round is also the last week where the highest tipper will score a <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/">FootySystemBet[/url] account. At least until the end of the season, so keep entering your tips to get an account for next year!

The final winner, with 7 tips correct in a difficult round, was Oakesy, picking Montagna to be to the highest scorer.

Congrats mate, Ill get your details to <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au/">FootySystemBet[/url] and they will contat you soon.

And a shout out to Jo, who is leading the tipping overall - youre doing great!

<a href="http://www.sideways.com.au/"<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/sideways.jpg">[/url]

The round didnt cause much of a stir in the Sideways comp, which isnt too suprising,...

Rhyming with Roo is so much easier that trying to rhyme with Riewoldt.

Consult on Rievoldt?

Anyways, Ive broken the options Im considering into three sections.

Uber premiums - guys who are scoring big points.
Up and comers - Potential premiums who are scoring the big points.
fallen premiums - Those guys who havent hit the ground running just yet, though history tells us that sooner or later, theyll come good.

Anyways, on with the show
(over the break)
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Tier One - The Big Three - If youre missing any of these guys, it seems an easy swap. (With one exception)

Jonothan Brown - Performing solidly with a 147 average over three. Looks to be in ripping form with Fev and an easy swap.

Ryan OKeefe - A 132 average coming from a very durable M/F. Another easy swap.

Paul Chapman - Averaging 120 and looking as solid as ever. Of course, we all know about his hamstrings. So there is a certain amount of risk attached to taking Chapman. I would suggest picking him up if you were looking for a potential point of difference on the leaders (I know that if I were at the pointy end, I would have a hard time picking him up with the risk involved!)

Tier Two - The up and comers - A selection of players who look to be stepping into a genuine premium position.

Heath Grundy - I had him in and out of my squad all preseason as my "D/F premium". And am now sad that I didnt go with him. You must remember that he has scored well in a couple of routings over the 15th and 16th, but still- for the MPP Premium option that he offers, he must be considered.

Cyril Rioli - Was highly considered in the preseason with a much publicised move to the midfield slated. Well, the season has started and Cyril has been tearing it up, averaging 111 against 2 of the top 3 sides. He comes with a certain injury concern over his groins that must be considered. But he is tearing it up.

Jared Brennan - History...

Yep, the honeymoon is definitely over baby.

Round 3 came along with disaster following disaster.

I think this can be seen by looking at the highest score for the round, 2565. Which would have been well down the tree in weeks gone by!

It also looks like the leagues are a little messed up, so well get an update on that later.

As for the football, it was injury after poor performance after injury.

Dangerfield was luckily cleared of neck fractures.
Bock copped a hamstring injury.
Tippett performed badly with an ankle sprain.
The latest on Riewoldt is that hell be undergoing surgery. So surely he must be traded, though there might be so reasoning behind holding him an extra week as a good amount of premiums are dropping in price.
Hargrave was taken to hospital for a CT scan. So well find out about that soon.
Lewis and Fisher are both tough as nails coming back after a stretchering, but both got back on the field.

Jolly, McIntosh, Seaby, Kreuzer, Clark, Tippett all continued with the ongoing theme of poor rucks.

But it wasnt all bad, there was a couple of wins this weekend. Namely, Fremantle.

How good have they been this year? Can they keep it up? Had someone told me at the start of the year that they would beat Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong and might go in as favorites against the Saint, I would have laughed at you.

The highest scorers for the round:
176, Brent Harvey - Coming back like a champion and hurting all those who jumped off him.
161, Ben McGlynn - 31 touches and a career high score for the boy.
157, Gary Ablett - Punishing everyone who dared stray from the perma-captain himself.
156, Luke Hodge - Surely hes in everyone team right?
149, Paul Chapman - A breakeven of 100, gotta look at him as a replacement for Roo.

Another good thing, the Salary predictions look pretty damn close, so Ive turned on the live calculations on the Live Scoring pages. So now, you can follow along as the games go on, what salary a player will...

Now, hands up who is guilty of chasing last weeks points?

*hand up*

Tippett -> Riewoldt.

Right now Im hurting.

Let that be a lesson to you all.

Last year we all got to share in cheering on Buster Gonad or Chris, our now resident poster, on in his march towards the $50K prize.

How did he do it and what can we all learn from it though? He wrote up an excellent article reviewing his season at the end of last year - <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=634">A Gonad Bustingly Good Year[/url] and I thought now was as good a time as any to have another look at how a champ runs his team over the season.

His article starts over the break.
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A Gonad Bustingly Good Year

Before I start my first ever TooSerious post, I would first like to take the opportunity to officially thank Walesy for all the work he does on the site, it has been a godsend to me over the last year and a half.  Also to Lucas, knighty and all posters who freely offer up advice every week even if they are giving up trade secrets.  If there is a question needed to be answered, guaranteed someone on this site knows the answer such is the wealth of knowledge.

Ok, now that thats off my chest, Walesy has asked me to put toghether a sort of SuperCoach year in review for my all conquering Buster Gonads.  So here it is...

Pre Season:

I think getting the right team before Round 1 is the most important part of the season.  Without a strong initial team, too many trades are wasted on getting competitive.  I tried to create a nice blend of premiums who were decently priced, some injured
returning players who i could depend on, some severely under priced stars and then the un-tried rookies.  The one exception to this is the great one, Gary Ablett Jnr.  Not having him would be like racing the Tour de France not for Team Astana, whats the point?  So pre-season Im hoping for a top 1000 finish after a top 2,000 finish in 08.

So my initial team was:

Backs : Goddard, Fisher (my only 2 premiums in defence), Drummond, Chornes, Raines, Houlihan (returning from injury), Hill, Petrenko, Broughton (rookies)....

There has been a bit of discussion in various other TS posts recently as to punters thoughts on which players would have collected Brownlow votes in their respective matches - so why not start up a post dedictated to the topic?

I dont always get the opportunity to watch all 8 games each week, so invariably have to rely on a bunch of key indicators as to which players are likely to pick up the votes.  Whilst stats come in to it - they for obvious reasons cannot be the be all and end all...case in point GAJ on the weekend had comfortably the most disposals, and a decent SuperCoach score of 128 (x2 for many of us) - however many of you would agree there would have been 10+ players play a more infuential game on the day.  Jnr didnt pick up one coaches vote, and wasnt named in the best players on any of the major AFL reporting websites (that I could find anyway...).

It is these opinion-based indicators that give the best chance of estimating who will get the votes come late September.

Other considerations when predicting votewinners: key position forwards very rarely pick up the three.  J. Roughead and B. Fevola from Round 6 2009 comes to mind.  Both kicked 8 goals in a game that was decided by less than a kick (and a poster on the siren from the former Blue Badboy).  Yet 3. B. Sewell, 2. J. Roughead, 1. C. Judd.  Not only did Roughead not get the three (despite picking up a maximum 10 coaches votes), but Fevola didnt even get a mention!

Another consideration is the winning team will on average pick up > 80% of the votes.  It takes a very good game (or a very delusional set of umpires) for a player on the losing team to get any more than 1 vote, and an exceptional game for a player on the losing team to get the three (happened only a handful of times in 2009, Richo in rounds 2 &amp; 4, Judd in Round 3, Goodes in Round 7, Brennan &amp; Sylvia in Round 9, and GAJ and Black againt the Bulldogs later in the season.  What do all of these players...