TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

Last year we all got to share in cheering on Buster Gonad or Chris, our now resident poster, on in his march towards the $50K prize.

How did he do it and what can we all learn from it though? He wrote up an excellent article reviewing his season at the end of last year - <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=634">A Gonad Bustingly Good Year[/url] and I thought now was as good a time as any to have another look at how a champ runs his team over the season.

His article starts over the break.
<!--more-->

A Gonad Bustingly Good Year

Before I start my first ever TooSerious post, I would first like to take the opportunity to officially thank Walesy for all the work he does on the site, it has been a godsend to me over the last year and a half.  Also to Lucas, knighty and all posters who freely offer up advice every week even if they are giving up trade secrets.  If there is a question needed to be answered, guaranteed someone on this site knows the answer such is the wealth of knowledge.

Ok, now that thats off my chest, Walesy has asked me to put toghether a sort of SuperCoach year in review for my all conquering Buster Gonads.  So here it is...

Pre Season:

I think getting the right team before Round 1 is the most important part of the season.  Without a strong initial team, too many trades are wasted on getting competitive.  I tried to create a nice blend of premiums who were decently priced, some injured
returning players who i could depend on, some severely under priced stars and then the un-tried rookies.  The one exception to this is the great one, Gary Ablett Jnr.  Not having him would be like racing the Tour de France not for Team Astana, whats the point?  So pre-season Im hoping for a top 1000 finish after a top 2,000 finish in 08.

So my initial team was:

Backs : Goddard, Fisher (my only 2 premiums in defence), Drummond, Chornes, Raines, Houlihan (returning from injury), Hill, Petrenko, Broughton (rookies)....
There has been a bit of discussion in various other TS posts recently as to punters thoughts on which players would have collected Brownlow votes in their respective matches - so why not start up a post dedictated to the topic?

I dont always get the opportunity to watch all 8 games each week, so invariably have to rely on a bunch of key indicators as to which players are likely to pick up the votes.  Whilst stats come in to it - they for obvious reasons cannot be the be all and end all...case in point GAJ on the weekend had comfortably the most disposals, and a decent SuperCoach score of 128 (x2 for many of us) - however many of you would agree there would have been 10+ players play a more infuential game on the day.  Jnr didnt pick up one coaches vote, and wasnt named in the best players on any of the major AFL reporting websites (that I could find anyway...).

It is these opinion-based indicators that give the best chance of estimating who will get the votes come late September.

Other considerations when predicting votewinners: key position forwards very rarely pick up the three.  J. Roughead and B. Fevola from Round 6 2009 comes to mind.  Both kicked 8 goals in a game that was decided by less than a kick (and a poster on the siren from the former Blue Badboy).  Yet 3. B. Sewell, 2. J. Roughead, 1. C. Judd.  Not only did Roughead not get the three (despite picking up a maximum 10 coaches votes), but Fevola didnt even get a mention!

Another consideration is the winning team will on average pick up > 80% of the votes.  It takes a very good game (or a very delusional set of umpires) for a player on the losing team to get any more than 1 vote, and an exceptional game for a player on the losing team to get the three (happened only a handful of times in 2009, Richo in rounds 2 &amp; 4, Judd in Round 3, Goodes in Round 7, Brennan &amp; Sylvia in Round 9, and GAJ and Black againt the Bulldogs later in the season.  What do all of these players...
So, the discussion is up late this week. Namely because Ive been very slack in getting it all put together.

Infact, *so* slack, I havent even added my own take to it.

Its a good thing then that just about all our writers have come up with their own take on the rucks this week.

So, this weeks topic: With Cox, Jolly and Clark all disappointing so much, what should we do?

Kicking it off over the break, with his thoughts is Knighty
<!--more-->
<blockquote>


Two rounds in and we’re already having to discuss those annoying ruckmen again. All these problems are probably why Grant Thomas preferred not to have them. Anyway down to business. If you were smart enough to pick Sandilands/Kreuzer/Seaby give yourselves a pat on the back, you can officially stop reading. In particular well done if you picked Seaby, for you look like getting excellent value for your dollar (compared to those who picked Hille/NicNat anyway). If you didn’t get him at the start the boat has not sailed yet, but think carefully-do you really think he is a keeper? He is only viable if you believe that he is, and won’t go back to his WCE days of pumping out consistent 60s. For the rest of us who were sucked in though, here are my views on the rest of the popular ruck options whose scores have failed to reach the same height as their bodies.

Clark-struggling with illness and more importantly, a lot less time in the ruck. All the numbers seem to suggest that while Leuey is in the team, he will struggle-and even if he does go down, Charman will be fit pretty soon as well, which may force him into even less time in the middle. TRADE up to Sandilands or down to Kreuzer (unless anyone is volunteering to take Leuenberger out for us?)

Jolly-struggling to adjust to the new role at a club that isn’t as advantageous to ruckmen. I still say HOLD, as he hasn’t had positional change and is likely to come good.

Cox-probably not match fit yet. Will definitely come good, but...
FRIDAY APRIL 9

St Kilda v Collingwood
Etihad Stadium @ 7.40pm

St Kilda

B: Jason Gram, Zac Dawson, Sam Gilbert
HB: Steven Baker, Jason Blake, Brendon Goddard
C: Leigh Montagna, Clint Jones, Nick Dal Santo
HF: Andrew McQualter, Sam Fisher, Adam Schneider
F: Farren Ray, Nick Riewoldt, Stephen Milne
Foll: Michael Gardiner, David Armitage, Lenny Hayes
I/C: Steven King, Brett Peake, James Gwilt, Jarryn Geary
Emg: Adam Pattison, Robert Eddy, Raphael Clarke

In: King, Fisher
Out: Adam Pattison, Ben McEvoy

Collingwood

B: Alan Toovey, Simon Prestigiacomo, Tarkyn Lockyer
HB: Harry O’Brien, Nick Maxwell, Sharrod Wellingham
C: Luke Ball, Dane Swan, John McCarthy
HF: Josh Fraser, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
F: Paul Medhurst, Brent Macaffer, Leon Davis
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas
I/C: Leigh Brown, Shane O’Bree, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams
Emg: Simon Buckley, Chris Dawes, Ben Reid

In: Macaffer, McCarthy, O’Bree, Prestigiacomo
Out: Ben Johnson (knee), Heath Shaw (back), Ben Reid, John Anthony

Remaining teams are over the break.
<!--more-->

SATURDAY APRIL 10

North Melbourne v West Coast
Etihad Stadium @ 2.10pm

North Melbourne
B: Scott McMahon, Scott Thompson, Sam Wright
HB: Michael Firrito, Lachie Hansen, Nathan Grima
C: Daniel Wells, Brent Harvey, Leigh Harding
HF: Liam Anthony, Brady Rawlings, Aaron Edwards
F: Ben Warren, David Hale, Lindsay Thomas
Foll: Hamish McIntosh, Jack Ziebell, Andrew Swallow
I/C: Leigh Adams, Gavin Urquhart, Todd Goldstein, Ryan Bastinac
Emg: Ben Ross, Robbie Tarrant, Ben Speight

In: McMahon, Harding, Edwards
Out: Corey Jones, Ben Ross, Matt Campbell

West Coast
B: Matt Spangher, Darren Glass, Brett Jones
HB: Andrew Embley, Will Schofield, Beau Waters
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Bradd Dalziell
HF: Chris Masten, Josh Kennedy, Luke Shuey
F: Mitch Brown, Ashley Hansen, Mark LeCras
Foll: Nic Naitanui,...
Ive been asked a couple of times recently about trading now so I feel that it is time to put something out there.

Sure, this article wont be as long as <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=821">the last one[/url] - however it will open that same way.

Then I asked the question, what makes a winning team? Now I ask the question, what makes a good trade?

Funnily, the answers to both questions are the same.

A good trade scores you the most points.

So whenever I think of making a trade, the question I like to ask myself is: How many points will this trade make me over the season?

When discussing this, its important to understand the implications of Points per game (ppg). To examine this, well look at a case study.

Say I have Martin, who is averaging 70. I decide that I want to trade him up to Bartel who is averaging 110. Firstly Ill need to free up the cash difference between Martin and Bartel, so we will need to trade our other Cashcow, Jetta, down to a rookie priced player. We can then use that cash to turn Martin into Bartel.

So what we have now, is two trades netting us an additional 40 ppg (or 20ppg per trade.) however, youll also need to consider the timing of the trade. Making that trade in round 6 will score you an extra 320 points over the season (20ppg * 16 rounds). However, making that same trade in round 11 will only score you and extra 220 (20ppg * 11 rounds) over the season.

This is an important concept to visualise, because an injury to a premium, with no coverage, is going to cost you 110ppg.

So in the above case, you would be just as well off covering a 2 round injury rather than scoring a 40ppg upgrade from one of your rookies. And is why saving trades for the end of the season becomes important because as you keep getting injuries, a two or three week injury could be a much wiser place to spend your trades.

Of course, having bench coverage changes the maths in that a bit meaning you would need Bartel out for 4 rounds...
So, the ladder page is taking its time- I got a little too distracted with easter and its delicious chocolatey charms.

<a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au">
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/FootySystemBet.png">[/url]
Ive got the Tipping sorted for the week and the winner of this weeks <a href="http://www.footysystembet.com.au">FootySystemBet[/url] winner is Ingall, being the only tipper to select 8 winners this week.

Which is lucky, because he selected Simon Black as his tie breaker.

Anyawys, Ingall, congratulations. Ill drop you an email and pass your details onto the fine folk at FootySystemBet.

As with our last lucky winner, theyre a paid service, so dont go posting their tips around the place, but if you can give us an independant review of how it went for you at the end of the season, that would be excellent!

<a href="http://www.sideways.com.au">
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/sideways.jpg">[/url]
And with our other Comp, the <a href="http://www.sideways.com.au">Sideways Cup[/url], Ive got the top 20 scores posted up below.

Ill endevour to get the ladder page up properly so you guys dont need to wait for me to post up the results to see how youve gone.

Team Nameroundscore

Life Post-Richo22515

Batesys Bangers22514

Vee4victory12494

Hammertime12494

Mash Sticks22488

Here He Is12454

Mash Sticks12443

Delirious22443

PowerfromPort12432

Sturges Dirties12431

brad stortch12429

embrace failure12427

What the ruck? FFC12423

Ellis inWonderland12423

Swannettes22410

Cooney is God12410

Real Horrorshow12408

Real Horrorshow22406

beams2sidebottom12397

Walrus FC22391
Wow, its been a huge week.

The week opened with a huge 170 to JB who proved to be the difference between the Lions and the Blues. Betts, Adcock and Clark disappointed.

Then we had to wait.

And boy was it worth it. A 1 point nail bitter as Collingwood squeeked a win over the impressive Demons. Here, Scully bottomed scored, despite having 10 touches more than Jolly, who along with Fraser continues the disappointing ruck theme of this week.

The Saint won by 100 with Roo, Montagna, Dal Santo and Goddard impressing. North as youd expect did terribly. But the Kangeroos night was summed up by Harvey with 5 touches and 11 SuperCoach points. Probably a career low for the North champion.

West Coast and Port delivered the second nail bitter of the round. And if anyone scored a ton in this match, I would be suprised. Waters and NitNat impressed. Banner and Shuey, not so much. While Cox became the 4th ruckman cursed with under performing. I hear that Hurn is gunna have a couple of weeks on the sidelines though. Glad Maguire is performing enough to cover.

Sydney delivered the goods against Adelaide, OKeefe performed massively, but the biggest story of the game has got to be Seaby with a huge 135 - breaking the ruck curse. Goodwin did something to his kneee, so keep an ear out.

Apparently there was also a game at Ethihad stadium on Sunday, a painful, heart wrenching dissappointment. Not to take anything away from Freo though, those guys are lookinng great. Barlow, what a star! Sandi, standing up as a premium ruck where so many have fallen, Ballantyne, looking marvelous for all those who picked him up and Silvagni hitting the ton. On the Bombers front, Gumby did great, as did Howlett, who should hold that spot another week. Particularly with McVeigh annd his blood infection. :(

Richmond got smashed, but all Hall could manage was 1 goal. Disappointing! Cooney and gilbee however were delicious. As was Newman who bounced back from last week - its funny how...
Its bloody wierd having a day go by between football.

One game is just enough to whet the appetite, and then were forced to wait.

It was a pretty good game though, with big JB being the difference between the two teams kicking 7 goals and scoring a massive 171 points.

It unsung heros of the blues were Murphy and Scotland. Both looking like great pickups for their buyers.

Maquire impressed, to those of you who moved him onto the field, I dip my hat.

Waite picked up 16 touches, 5 marks and 5 tackles. If he had been doing that at the end of the game, instead of the start, he would have scored better - so donot worry about him.

And finally Clark, hes a worry. He looks tired and lethagic. His second efforts are almost non-existant.

I guess it all depends on how sick he has been. Ah well, I think hell be the biggest decision for most with a 50-70k drop imminent.

Ah well, its all back today so we can all exhale again.

Which Pie is going to dominate the Dees? Theres so many to choose from.

My dreamteam is rooting for Swan, but I would *love* to see Ball do the honors!

The rumors on Ablett has been persistant for a few days now, but I reckon hell be right. It sure is too early in the season for this kind speculation though! I need some 170 scores to put my mind at ease!

Did we all have a good Friday? Anyone cracked into their eggs yet? I know Im tempted to. :)


Also, you might find a number of new things on the Live scores page, so check it out by clicking on the gameday tab above. :)
So, round two lockout is fast approaching, and its a strange feeling not knowing what the teams are yet!

Normally I know by know what my trades/team is going to be, Ive just got my ear out for any last minute changes.

But a Thursday lockout, with a Saturday game really throws a spanner in the works.

So what are we thinking?

Gray - Its an unfortunate situation, but I think youve got to hold onto him. At least until you have better information into who youre trading into.
Rockliff - As above. Any sideways trades of Rockliff this week are bound to end in peril. Hold him for an extra week.
Ablett - Hes the giant elephant in the corner that no-one wants to talk about. "injured" already, but a Monday game should see him play. Though it *is* Ablett and he *is* a superstar, so Im sure hell be right.

As for making trades, Im about 80% of the way through a might post on trading, but arent going to get it up by tonight, so Ill leave you with this key snippet.

Trades exist to make you points. A good trade will make you 300+ points for the year. Which in round 1 is a 15 ppg increase.

Do you honestly believe that any sideways trade you make now will turn a 15 ppg increase? If so, I would love to talk about it in the comments! :)

If not however, then steer clean of trading this week.

What are the other concerns that are out there?
These Thursday games are killing me-let me see the teams before I have to tip! Tips are in bold, as usual.

<tbody>

<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_brl.png" alt="" />
Brisbane Lions
vs
Carlton
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_car.png" alt="" />
[span style="font-family: MS Shell Dlg;font-size: small">

Gabba - Thursday April 1 8:40pm

Top Scorer: J.Brown, 136



<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_col.png" alt="" />
Collingwood
vs
Melbourne
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_mel.png" alt="" />

MCG - Saturday April 3 2:10pm

Top Scorer: D Swan, 145



<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_stk.png" alt="" />
St Kilda
vs
North Melbourne
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_kan.png" alt="" />

Telstra Dome - Saturday April 3 7:10pm

Top Scorer: N Dal Santo, 140



<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_wce.png" alt="" />
West Coast
vs
Port Adelaide
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_pta.png" alt="" />

Subiaco - Saturday April 3 8:40pm

Top Scorer: A Selwood, 135



<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_ade.png" alt="" />
Adelaide
vs
Sydney
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_syd.png" alt="" />

AAMI Stadium - Sunday April 4 1:10pm

Top Scorer: S Goodwin, 151



<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_ess.png" alt="" />
Essendon
vs
Fremantle
<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/themes/default/images/team_fre.png" alt="" />

Telstra Dome - Sunday April 4 2:10pm

Top Scorer: J Watson, 131



<img...