TooSerious
For those who take it way too seriously
OK its time to put something out there for discussion and its a further refinement of a ranking system I devised earlier. Its still got some tweaks needed, but effectively it rates players on their 2009 efforts, takes into account price and score fluctuations (generally the more consistent the better), uses some durability data from 2008-2009, and tests this against the 2010 price.
Ive tried to keep this system out of my hands as much as possible and let stats do the talking, but in any system there must be bias. Mine is probably the players overall performance and 2009 (as distinct from 2008) performance. If you didnt play 2009, too bad. (It means youre in line for the 2nd year blues! Haha!). Note also that I have not taken into account such things as preseason injuries or suspensions leading into the 2010 season. Effectively these stats could have come out the day the price points were reached for the 2010 SuperCoach year.
To regular watchers of price valuations and the consistent players, the results probably wont shock you much. I will list the top 20 in overall (out of 1000 points), then the top 5 in each category I rated them on (Scoring Consistency, Price Consistency, Value, Durability and Captaincy Suitability).
[span style="text-decoration: underline">[span style="color: #ff0000">OVERALL
1) JIMMY BARTEL 871
2) Brett Kirk 866
3) Nick Riewoldt 852
4) Chris Judd 851
5) Ryan OKeefe 845
6) Marc Murphy 843
7) Jude Bolton 842
8) Joel Corey 841
9) Brendon Goddard 839
=10) Daniel Cross 837
=10) Joel Selwood 837
12) Luke Power 831
=13) Simon Black 829
=13) Leigh Montagna 829
=13) Corey Enright 829
16) Brett Deledio 827
17) Shane Tuck 826
=18) Dane Swan 824
=18) Cameron Bruce 824
20) Nick Dal Santo 823
Scoring Consistency (/100)
1) Gary Ablett (OA23) 100
2) Leigh Montagna 99
=2) Dane Swan 99
4) Chris Judd 98
=4) Marc Murphy 98
Price Consistency (/100) - (Showing only top 10o players only...
Ive tried to keep this system out of my hands as much as possible and let stats do the talking, but in any system there must be bias. Mine is probably the players overall performance and 2009 (as distinct from 2008) performance. If you didnt play 2009, too bad. (It means youre in line for the 2nd year blues! Haha!). Note also that I have not taken into account such things as preseason injuries or suspensions leading into the 2010 season. Effectively these stats could have come out the day the price points were reached for the 2010 SuperCoach year.
To regular watchers of price valuations and the consistent players, the results probably wont shock you much. I will list the top 20 in overall (out of 1000 points), then the top 5 in each category I rated them on (Scoring Consistency, Price Consistency, Value, Durability and Captaincy Suitability).
[span style="text-decoration: underline">[span style="color: #ff0000">OVERALL
1) JIMMY BARTEL 871
2) Brett Kirk 866
3) Nick Riewoldt 852
4) Chris Judd 851
5) Ryan OKeefe 845
6) Marc Murphy 843
7) Jude Bolton 842
8) Joel Corey 841
9) Brendon Goddard 839
=10) Daniel Cross 837
=10) Joel Selwood 837
12) Luke Power 831
=13) Simon Black 829
=13) Leigh Montagna 829
=13) Corey Enright 829
16) Brett Deledio 827
17) Shane Tuck 826
=18) Dane Swan 824
=18) Cameron Bruce 824
20) Nick Dal Santo 823
Scoring Consistency (/100)
1) Gary Ablett (OA23) 100
2) Leigh Montagna 99
=2) Dane Swan 99
4) Chris Judd 98
=4) Marc Murphy 98
Price Consistency (/100) - (Showing only top 10o players only...
Holla all.
Live scoring is updated to the next round of the NAB.
Ive also put in a feature that will allow you to go to past or future rounds. Which will prolly go alright.
I am stoked to get another chance to see the Hawks, Coasters, Ports, Sydney, Kangers and Freo- In fact, I think 21 of my current list is playing, so that makes me smile.
Tonight we have the Hawkers lining up against the Doggies. Should be one *hell* of a match.
Can Buddy do what he did last week against *not* Richmond. And hows the Hawks midfield going to hold up against some real quality opposition. (Sorry Richmond.
)
And a Bulldogs gameplan when *not* playing in a swamp- how will that work?
Theres a lot of potential premiums out there tonight, and I know Ive got 5 of them playing. Lets see how they are used.
Live scoring is updated to the next round of the NAB.
Ive also put in a feature that will allow you to go to past or future rounds. Which will prolly go alright.
I am stoked to get another chance to see the Hawks, Coasters, Ports, Sydney, Kangers and Freo- In fact, I think 21 of my current list is playing, so that makes me smile.
Tonight we have the Hawkers lining up against the Doggies. Should be one *hell* of a match.
Can Buddy do what he did last week against *not* Richmond. And hows the Hawks midfield going to hold up against some real quality opposition. (Sorry Richmond.
)And a Bulldogs gameplan when *not* playing in a swamp- how will that work?
Theres a lot of potential premiums out there tonight, and I know Ive got 5 of them playing. Lets see how they are used.
So, ive been asked, hows the SuperCoach leagues going?
So, heres the official update.
Ill be sending out the league codes next weekend. Ill also be closing off any new leagues at that time, so well have a definite list on how many leagues well be running.
Currently the leagues are running as follows.
TooSerious50 Leagues- 26 people, plus whichever writers we get in.
So essentially, 2 leagues. Maybe a third if we can get enough signing up.
TooSerious20 leagues- 13 people, 2 places left.
LeagueOfLeagues- 9 people have applied. Since I havent had any solid details on in yet, Im thinking Ill send out the league code next weekend and we can work out payments from then.
So get in peoples. We want to fill these leagues. So if you have anyone you can get in, then get them in!
Also, Im thinking Ive got a DreamTeam league. So Im thinking, if any of the regulars here has a free league open, drop me a line- Ill send out the league code.
For details on how to join the leagues, or for a more detailed description on each of them, please, read <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=715">over here[/url].
Also, just a quick note on the EPL- Im imagining that everyone is swimming in more cash than they need? Cause with the AFL season arcing up, Im losing the inspiration to keep it up to date. Anyone want me to keep going? Still trying my darnedest in that iinet comp-though its not looking great for us. Darn Whirlpool!
So, heres the official update.
Ill be sending out the league codes next weekend. Ill also be closing off any new leagues at that time, so well have a definite list on how many leagues well be running.
Currently the leagues are running as follows.
TooSerious50 Leagues- 26 people, plus whichever writers we get in.
So essentially, 2 leagues. Maybe a third if we can get enough signing up.
TooSerious20 leagues- 13 people, 2 places left.
LeagueOfLeagues- 9 people have applied. Since I havent had any solid details on in yet, Im thinking Ill send out the league code next weekend and we can work out payments from then.
So get in peoples. We want to fill these leagues. So if you have anyone you can get in, then get them in!
Also, Im thinking Ive got a DreamTeam league. So Im thinking, if any of the regulars here has a free league open, drop me a line- Ill send out the league code.
For details on how to join the leagues, or for a more detailed description on each of them, please, read <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=715">over here[/url].
Also, just a quick note on the EPL- Im imagining that everyone is swimming in more cash than they need? Cause with the AFL season arcing up, Im losing the inspiration to keep it up to date. Anyone want me to keep going? Still trying my darnedest in that iinet comp-though its not looking great for us. Darn Whirlpool!
Why use TooSerious?
So, why is TooSerious one of the biggest fantasy football support sites on the internet?
To answer that, youve got to ask yourself the following question: What makes for a good year in Supercoach?
Two things play a huge part in your year.
1) Your starting squad.
2) How well you trade throughout the year.
So, how can we help? Well firstly- your starting squad. We have made it our duty to provide excellent analysis of which premium players will do you well, which mid priced players look to be stepping up and which rookies will give you the best chance to cash up.
Ok, so I would love to take *all* the credit for that, but weve also got a fantastic array of writers on board as well as a fantastic community backing it up. Just take a look through the comments, any of them really, for an inciteful and intellegent discussion on Supercoach.
Now, while we offer advice, we also have a tab up the top there called stats. Under here, you can find a history of every player playing the game- as well as snapshots of how they were going in years gone by. Weve got the usual stats as well as your more fantasy specific stats like highest/lowest salary/points. Standard deviations as well as handy "average against" including a players last 3 game average over the past three weeks, against the team theyre coming up against and at the ground they will be playing at.
Now, Im hoping that that will be enough to get you a decent starting squad. But once youve got one of them, the rest of your season will come down to Team Management. Which is the area that we shine.
The first place to look is over on that stats tab. Over there, the first thing to notice would be the breakeven column. This column informs you what score a player will need to get in order to hold their current salary. Next are the salary movement fields (next round, Two Rounds, Three rounds and Movement (3 rounds)). These fields will give you a fairly accurate approximation of a...
So, why is TooSerious one of the biggest fantasy football support sites on the internet?
To answer that, youve got to ask yourself the following question: What makes for a good year in Supercoach?
Two things play a huge part in your year.
1) Your starting squad.
2) How well you trade throughout the year.
So, how can we help? Well firstly- your starting squad. We have made it our duty to provide excellent analysis of which premium players will do you well, which mid priced players look to be stepping up and which rookies will give you the best chance to cash up.
Ok, so I would love to take *all* the credit for that, but weve also got a fantastic array of writers on board as well as a fantastic community backing it up. Just take a look through the comments, any of them really, for an inciteful and intellegent discussion on Supercoach.
Now, while we offer advice, we also have a tab up the top there called stats. Under here, you can find a history of every player playing the game- as well as snapshots of how they were going in years gone by. Weve got the usual stats as well as your more fantasy specific stats like highest/lowest salary/points. Standard deviations as well as handy "average against" including a players last 3 game average over the past three weeks, against the team theyre coming up against and at the ground they will be playing at.
Now, Im hoping that that will be enough to get you a decent starting squad. But once youve got one of them, the rest of your season will come down to Team Management. Which is the area that we shine.
The first place to look is over on that stats tab. Over there, the first thing to notice would be the breakeven column. This column informs you what score a player will need to get in order to hold their current salary. Next are the salary movement fields (next round, Two Rounds, Three rounds and Movement (3 rounds)). These fields will give you a fairly accurate approximation of a...
So, just a quick post to keep the NAB talk in the right threads.
Seems Ball is doing his darnedest to remove himself as a point of difference in my team. And Heater is doing nothing wrong so far. (Though we all know how *he* works.)
Armitage has me cursing his three games last year! He wold have been a fantastic pick up if he wasnt so highly priced. Particularly with Ball being out of that midfield now.
It was certainly interesting to see Cloke have 7 shots at Goal last night- with a very Buddy-like kicking performance, itll be interesting to see if this year is finally the year he steps up.
Tonight is the Sydney/Carlton game. A game where both teams rucks structures could be *very* important this year.
Anyways, Go NAB!
Seems Ball is doing his darnedest to remove himself as a point of difference in my team. And Heater is doing nothing wrong so far. (Though we all know how *he* works.)
Armitage has me cursing his three games last year! He wold have been a fantastic pick up if he wasnt so highly priced. Particularly with Ball being out of that midfield now.
It was certainly interesting to see Cloke have 7 shots at Goal last night- with a very Buddy-like kicking performance, itll be interesting to see if this year is finally the year he steps up.
Tonight is the Sydney/Carlton game. A game where both teams rucks structures could be *very* important this year.
Anyways, Go NAB!
So, the last post has gotten over 250 posts- is that a record here? So its probably time to fire up a new discussion, and today?
Playing rookies in the midfield.
Were all done the research, so we all know that the rookies in the midfield are looking by far and away the best position to run the mids.
But how many is too few, and how many are too much risk?
And leading off todays discussion is my boy, Lucas.
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<blockquote>
Firstly as I’ve said before we don’t really know much until the NAB Cup has been run and we start to see some of the rookies and how they can interact with the rest of their team. Some later chosen ones will get a spot just because of injuries to other personnel, or because there was just a space waiting for them.
That said, as with most posters it appears the midfield has the most rookie benefits. So is there a case for loading up? What defines loading up?
In the old days of Supercoach, loading up in the past has even been playing rookies in your starting 22! But after seeing the success and readymade nature of the rookies now, teams have experimented with starting three rookies – one forward, back and mid.
This year the danger is that there is not three good forward and back rookies, and there are more than four good midfield ones.
My advice. Look closely at team balance. A quality team has had good strong rookies across the board. You can’t just rely on strong midfield, you must get the value from all positions to be upgrading them successfully. 2 starting midfield rookies would be the absolute max. Given their quality though, I can’t see you using less and staying competitive in the competition after Rd10.
I would think 1 starting rookie in defence and forward will also be required – and this is where I would think the overall will be won and lost – picking the right three rookies in these positions.
And one final note – don’t discount MPP if they work for you.
</blockquote>...
Playing rookies in the midfield.
Were all done the research, so we all know that the rookies in the midfield are looking by far and away the best position to run the mids.
But how many is too few, and how many are too much risk?
And leading off todays discussion is my boy, Lucas.
<!--more-->
<blockquote>
Firstly as I’ve said before we don’t really know much until the NAB Cup has been run and we start to see some of the rookies and how they can interact with the rest of their team. Some later chosen ones will get a spot just because of injuries to other personnel, or because there was just a space waiting for them.
That said, as with most posters it appears the midfield has the most rookie benefits. So is there a case for loading up? What defines loading up?
In the old days of Supercoach, loading up in the past has even been playing rookies in your starting 22! But after seeing the success and readymade nature of the rookies now, teams have experimented with starting three rookies – one forward, back and mid.
This year the danger is that there is not three good forward and back rookies, and there are more than four good midfield ones.
My advice. Look closely at team balance. A quality team has had good strong rookies across the board. You can’t just rely on strong midfield, you must get the value from all positions to be upgrading them successfully. 2 starting midfield rookies would be the absolute max. Given their quality though, I can’t see you using less and staying competitive in the competition after Rd10.
I would think 1 starting rookie in defence and forward will also be required – and this is where I would think the overall will be won and lost – picking the right three rookies in these positions.
And one final note – don’t discount MPP if they work for you.
</blockquote>...
Well, it looks like theres been some work done on this site.
Firstly, Ive made a few choice changes to the data structure- so that a lot of the calculations are now done just after lock out and stored in the database. This *should* make the site a heck of a lot faster than it has been in the past (Since it wont need to work hard *every* time you do anything. Let me know if its noticable.
Next, on the Stats screen, youll notice a couple of new fields under Extended. (You all did know there was an extended button right? Displays all sorts of nifty info.)
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Anyways, the new stuff youll find on there is Highest/Lowest/Medium salary for the year, Highest/Lowest score for the year (So Lucas, enjoy!), Standard Deviation on their salary, Average score against the team they are playing next week and Average score at the Ground they are playing at next week.
Both of these average scores are based on the last three games, and wont look prior to 3 years ago. (To ensure that those scores they put up when playing as a small forward are gone.)
Next up, Ive made a number of changes on the Calculation screen. Firstly, you can now alter year and round on the screen- So you can go back to an earlier round and muck around (if thats how you get your Jollys). Next, youll notice that those new fields from above are here- shown at a week by week basis for the particular player that you are looking at.
What you can also do however is use the two new buttons, "Recalculate on team" and "Recalculate on Ground" to automatically plug those values into the salary calculation. (So you can see what would happen if a player got their average for each week. - Practical application: Ablett would bottom out at $615,205 in round 11.)
It also lays the ground work for plugging in the score predictor, and running salary generation based on that- but Ive other things to do first.
Namely, Ive been working on the Gameday screen. The Live scoring should be working better...
Firstly, Ive made a few choice changes to the data structure- so that a lot of the calculations are now done just after lock out and stored in the database. This *should* make the site a heck of a lot faster than it has been in the past (Since it wont need to work hard *every* time you do anything. Let me know if its noticable.
Next, on the Stats screen, youll notice a couple of new fields under Extended. (You all did know there was an extended button right? Displays all sorts of nifty info.)
<!--more-->
Anyways, the new stuff youll find on there is Highest/Lowest/Medium salary for the year, Highest/Lowest score for the year (So Lucas, enjoy!), Standard Deviation on their salary, Average score against the team they are playing next week and Average score at the Ground they are playing at next week.
Both of these average scores are based on the last three games, and wont look prior to 3 years ago. (To ensure that those scores they put up when playing as a small forward are gone.)
Next up, Ive made a number of changes on the Calculation screen. Firstly, you can now alter year and round on the screen- So you can go back to an earlier round and muck around (if thats how you get your Jollys). Next, youll notice that those new fields from above are here- shown at a week by week basis for the particular player that you are looking at.
What you can also do however is use the two new buttons, "Recalculate on team" and "Recalculate on Ground" to automatically plug those values into the salary calculation. (So you can see what would happen if a player got their average for each week. - Practical application: Ablett would bottom out at $615,205 in round 11.)
It also lays the ground work for plugging in the score predictor, and running salary generation based on that- but Ive other things to do first.
Namely, Ive been working on the Gameday screen. The Live scoring should be working better...
Footys back!
And while its a shame we lost, its still great to be watching it again!
So, what can we take from the game? Well firstly, Bruce will be having sweet dreams all night long re Naitanui.
And whats not to love, he was a machine tonight- bringing himself into consideration for many the fantasy team.
But dont forget, he was playing sans Cox and the Bombers unit was playing their third/fourth string with Hille and Paddy both out.
Still, one to watch though.
The other standouts were:
Jobe- he did what Jobe does, gets a lot of it. 32 touches and 9 marks, he had a good one.
Mcveigh- Dropped off towards the end of the game, and without missing the first game of the season,would be bringing himself right into contention.
Masten- Got a lot of it. If he can keep it up throughout the NAB, he will be making a serious claim in my midfield.
Shuey did enough to keep an eye on him.
And the negatives:
Scooter Selwood didnt do much to impress and is starting to lose the credibility earned over the break.
Sheppard was hardly seen, but Im assuming that not much game-time was given to him. He did look pretty good when he did have it though.
Dalziell raised a bunch of question marks with his performance.
Hardingham has pretty much taken his name off my watchlist.
But yanno, its the first game back for the year. Still 5 weeks to go, but its great to be getting back in the swing of things!
And while its a shame we lost, its still great to be watching it again!
So, what can we take from the game? Well firstly, Bruce will be having sweet dreams all night long re Naitanui.
And whats not to love, he was a machine tonight- bringing himself into consideration for many the fantasy team.
But dont forget, he was playing sans Cox and the Bombers unit was playing their third/fourth string with Hille and Paddy both out.
Still, one to watch though.
The other standouts were:
Jobe- he did what Jobe does, gets a lot of it. 32 touches and 9 marks, he had a good one.
Mcveigh- Dropped off towards the end of the game, and without missing the first game of the season,would be bringing himself right into contention.
Masten- Got a lot of it. If he can keep it up throughout the NAB, he will be making a serious claim in my midfield.
Shuey did enough to keep an eye on him.
And the negatives:
Scooter Selwood didnt do much to impress and is starting to lose the credibility earned over the break.
Sheppard was hardly seen, but Im assuming that not much game-time was given to him. He did look pretty good when he did have it though.
Dalziell raised a bunch of question marks with his performance.
Hardingham has pretty much taken his name off my watchlist.
But yanno, its the first game back for the year. Still 5 weeks to go, but its great to be getting back in the swing of things!
Chris, you asked earlier if Ablett was the #1 contested ball getter for 09.
Well, Ive finally massaged TS to give it up. And heres the top five. (in order of *most* contested possessions.)
#: Name: Contested possessions at their percentage of contested possessions in relation to their total possessions.
#1: Chris Judd. 246 at 41.2%
#2: Gary Ablett. 245 at 34.51%
#3: Dane Swan. 244 at 32.44%
#4: Joel Selwood. 231 as 35.11%
#5: Matthew Boyd. 231 at 32.08%
Looking at it as a relation to their total possessions however, has it all being rucks (unsurprising), with Nicholas Naitanui leading the charge with 66.33% of his possessions being contested.
The highest percentage for Non-rucks are.
Daniel Kerr: 53.8%
Hayden Ballantyne: 49.31%
Patrick Dangerfield: 48.72%
Eddie Betts: 48.13%
Jason Porplyzia: 47.38%
Which while unhelpful, is interesting. But more importantly, means Ive got a bunch of data available for use now that I previously didnt have. Rock and Roll.
Lucas, if there wasnt a game on tonight, your high/low salaries would be implemented. But since there is- youll have to wait over the weekend...
Carn the Bombers!
Well, Ive finally massaged TS to give it up. And heres the top five. (in order of *most* contested possessions.)
#: Name: Contested possessions at their percentage of contested possessions in relation to their total possessions.
#1: Chris Judd. 246 at 41.2%
#2: Gary Ablett. 245 at 34.51%
#3: Dane Swan. 244 at 32.44%
#4: Joel Selwood. 231 as 35.11%
#5: Matthew Boyd. 231 at 32.08%
Looking at it as a relation to their total possessions however, has it all being rucks (unsurprising), with Nicholas Naitanui leading the charge with 66.33% of his possessions being contested.
The highest percentage for Non-rucks are.
Daniel Kerr: 53.8%
Hayden Ballantyne: 49.31%
Patrick Dangerfield: 48.72%
Eddie Betts: 48.13%
Jason Porplyzia: 47.38%
Which while unhelpful, is interesting.
But more importantly, means Ive got a bunch of data available for use now that I previously didnt have. Rock and Roll. Lucas, if there wasnt a game on tonight, your high/low salaries would be implemented. But since there is- youll have to wait over the weekend...
Carn the Bombers!
Welcome to the first of the Too Serious Discussions.
What are the Too Serious Discussions? Essentially, a question is asked of each of our writer, and we provide a brief paragraph or to that sums up our thoughts. Then you, the reader can agree, or tear us apart, in the comments. Choose a favorite- sledge the other guys if you want. Its mean to be fun, and most importantly, generate discussion on the topic on hand.
So, what is the topic on hand? To Gary or not to Gary. Hes $744k and an average of 140. Can you, should you say no?
Today weve got 4 people posting their thoughts...
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First off the ranks- Is last years SuperCoach Winner, Chris.
<blockquote>
Ok, so to Gary or not to Gary. The same question was asked last year, and those who didnt pick the little bald fella got burned just like his taggers. Everything says you must pick him. However, last season, there was absolutely no reason to think he wouldnt smash it every week (which he subsequently did) and i think anyone who didnt pick him round 1 last year were either very tight with coin or just mentally retarded.
BUT, i think this year there may be a shred of doubt and those who dont pick him can at least have a foot to stand on in an argument when he starts busting out those 190s. Gary has won his brownlow, he has won the flag the Cats wanted (ie, had to work for), he has lost his missus and he has golden beaches and surf on his mind. Also, i dont think the gap between Gary and the mere mortals like Nicky Dal is so great this year. The pts per game difference this year could be down to under 10pts.
The biggest worth for Gary tho, is the big C next to his name. It is because of this big C that every team should have the little champ in their team from round 1.
</blockquote>
Next up, we have the crowd favorite, Knighty.
<blockquote>
Ablett may have been overlooked for the Geelong captaincy, but in Supercoach thousands of teams should rely on him as...
What are the Too Serious Discussions? Essentially, a question is asked of each of our writer, and we provide a brief paragraph or to that sums up our thoughts. Then you, the reader can agree, or tear us apart, in the comments. Choose a favorite- sledge the other guys if you want. Its mean to be fun, and most importantly, generate discussion on the topic on hand.
So, what is the topic on hand? To Gary or not to Gary. Hes $744k and an average of 140. Can you, should you say no?
Today weve got 4 people posting their thoughts...
<!--more-->
First off the ranks- Is last years SuperCoach Winner, Chris.
<blockquote>
Ok, so to Gary or not to Gary. The same question was asked last year, and those who didnt pick the little bald fella got burned just like his taggers. Everything says you must pick him. However, last season, there was absolutely no reason to think he wouldnt smash it every week (which he subsequently did) and i think anyone who didnt pick him round 1 last year were either very tight with coin or just mentally retarded.
BUT, i think this year there may be a shred of doubt and those who dont pick him can at least have a foot to stand on in an argument when he starts busting out those 190s. Gary has won his brownlow, he has won the flag the Cats wanted (ie, had to work for), he has lost his missus and he has golden beaches and surf on his mind. Also, i dont think the gap between Gary and the mere mortals like Nicky Dal is so great this year. The pts per game difference this year could be down to under 10pts.
The biggest worth for Gary tho, is the big C next to his name. It is because of this big C that every team should have the little champ in their team from round 1.
</blockquote>
Next up, we have the crowd favorite, Knighty.
<blockquote>
Ablett may have been overlooked for the Geelong captaincy, but in Supercoach thousands of teams should rely on him as...
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