TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

So, just a quick post to keep the NAB talk in the right threads.

Seems Ball is doing his darnedest to remove himself as a point of difference in my team. And Heater is doing nothing wrong so far. (Though we all know how *he* works.)

Armitage has me cursing his three games last year! He wold have been a fantastic pick up if he wasnt so highly priced. Particularly with Ball being out of that midfield now.

It was certainly interesting to see Cloke have 7 shots at Goal last night- with a very Buddy-like kicking performance, itll be interesting to see if this year is finally the year he steps up.

Tonight is the Sydney/Carlton game. A game where both teams rucks structures could be *very* important this year.

Anyways, Go NAB!
So, the last post has gotten over 250 posts- is that a record here? So its probably time to fire up a new discussion, and today?

Playing rookies in the midfield.

Were all done the research, so we all know that the rookies in the midfield are looking by far and away the best position to run the mids.

But how many is too few, and how many are too much risk?

And leading off todays discussion is my boy, Lucas.
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Firstly as I’ve said before we don’t really know much until the NAB Cup has been run and we start to see some of the rookies and how they can interact with the rest of their team. Some later chosen ones will get a spot just because of injuries to other personnel, or because there was just a space waiting for them.
That said, as with most posters it appears the midfield has the most rookie benefits. So is there a case for loading up? What defines loading up?
In the old days of Supercoach, loading up in the past has even been playing rookies in your starting 22! But after seeing the success and readymade nature of the rookies now, teams have experimented with starting three rookies – one forward, back and mid.
This year the danger is that there is not three good forward and back rookies, and there are more than four good midfield ones.

My advice. Look closely at team balance. A quality team has had good strong rookies across the board. You can’t just rely on strong midfield, you must get the value from all positions to be upgrading them successfully. 2 starting midfield rookies would be the absolute max. Given their quality though, I can’t see you using less and staying competitive in the competition after Rd10.
I would think 1 starting rookie in defence and forward will also be required – and this is where I would think the overall will be won and lost – picking the right three rookies in these positions.

And one final note – don’t discount MPP if they work for you.
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Well, it looks like theres been some work done on this site.

Firstly, Ive made a few choice changes to the data structure- so that a lot of the calculations are now done just after lock out and stored in the database. This *should* make the site a heck of a lot faster than it has been in the past (Since it wont need to work hard *every* time you do anything. Let me know if its noticable.

Next, on the Stats screen, youll notice a couple of new fields under Extended. (You all did know there was an extended button right? Displays all sorts of nifty info.)
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Anyways, the new stuff youll find on there is Highest/Lowest/Medium salary for the year, Highest/Lowest score for the year (So Lucas, enjoy!), Standard Deviation on their salary, Average score against the team they are playing next week and Average score at the Ground they are playing at next week.

Both of these average scores are based on the last three games, and wont look prior to 3 years ago. (To ensure that those scores they put up when playing as a small forward are gone.)

Next up, Ive made a number of changes on the Calculation screen. Firstly, you can now alter year and round on the screen- So you can go back to an earlier round and muck around (if thats how you get your Jollys). Next, youll notice that those new fields from above are here- shown at a week by week basis for the particular player that you are looking at.

What you can also do however is use the two new buttons, "Recalculate on team" and "Recalculate on Ground" to automatically plug those values into the salary calculation. (So you can see what would happen if a player got their average for each week. - Practical application: Ablett would bottom out at $615,205 in round 11.)

It also lays the ground work for plugging in the score predictor, and running salary generation based on that- but Ive other things to do first.

Namely, Ive been working on the Gameday screen. The Live scoring should be working better...
Footys back!

And while its a shame we lost, its still great to be watching it again!

So, what can we take from the game? Well firstly, Bruce will be having sweet dreams all night long re Naitanui.

And whats not to love, he was a machine tonight- bringing himself into consideration for many the fantasy team.

But dont forget, he was playing sans Cox and the Bombers unit was playing their third/fourth string with Hille and Paddy both out.

Still, one to watch though.

The other standouts were:
Jobe- he did what Jobe does, gets a lot of it. 32 touches and 9 marks, he had a good one.
Mcveigh- Dropped off towards the end of the game, and without missing the first game of the season,would be bringing himself right into contention.
Masten- Got a lot of it. If he can keep it up throughout the NAB, he will be making a serious claim in my midfield.

Shuey did enough to keep an eye on him.

And the negatives:
Scooter Selwood didnt do much to impress and is starting to lose the credibility earned over the break.
Sheppard was hardly seen, but Im assuming that not much game-time was given to him. He did look pretty good when he did have it though.
Dalziell raised a bunch of question marks with his performance.
Hardingham has pretty much taken his name off my watchlist.

But yanno, its the first game back for the year. Still 5 weeks to go, but its great to be getting back in the swing of things!
Chris, you asked earlier if Ablett was the #1 contested ball getter for 09.

Well, Ive finally massaged TS to give it up. And heres the top five. (in order of *most* contested possessions.)

#: Name: Contested possessions at their percentage of contested possessions in relation to their total possessions.

#1: Chris Judd. 246 at 41.2%
#2: Gary Ablett. 245 at 34.51%
#3: Dane Swan. 244 at 32.44%
#4: Joel Selwood. 231 as 35.11%
#5: Matthew Boyd. 231 at 32.08%

Looking at it as a relation to their total possessions however, has it all being rucks (unsurprising), with Nicholas Naitanui leading the charge with 66.33% of his possessions being contested.

The highest percentage for Non-rucks are.

Daniel Kerr: 53.8%
Hayden Ballantyne: 49.31%
Patrick Dangerfield: 48.72%
Eddie Betts: 48.13%
Jason Porplyzia: 47.38%

Which while unhelpful, is interesting. :) But more importantly, means Ive got a bunch of data available for use now that I previously didnt have. Rock and Roll. :)

Lucas, if there wasnt a game on tonight, your high/low salaries would be implemented. But since there is- youll have to wait over the weekend...

Carn the Bombers!
Welcome to the first of the Too Serious Discussions.

What are the Too Serious Discussions? Essentially, a question is asked of each of our writer, and we provide a brief paragraph or to that sums up our thoughts. Then you, the reader can agree, or tear us apart, in the comments. Choose a favorite- sledge the other guys if you want. Its mean to be fun, and most importantly, generate discussion on the topic on hand.

So, what is the topic on hand? To Gary or not to Gary. Hes $744k and an average of 140. Can you, should you say no?

Today weve got 4 people posting their thoughts...
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First off the ranks- Is last years SuperCoach Winner, Chris.
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Ok, so to Gary or not to Gary. The same question was asked last year, and those who didnt pick the little bald fella got burned just like his taggers. Everything says you must pick him. However, last season, there was absolutely no reason to think he wouldnt smash it every week (which he subsequently did) and i think anyone who didnt pick him round 1 last year were either very tight with coin or just mentally retarded.

BUT, i think this year there may be a shred of doubt and those who dont pick him can at least have a foot to stand on in an argument when he starts busting out those 190s. Gary has won his brownlow, he has won the flag the Cats wanted (ie, had to work for), he has lost his missus and he has golden beaches and surf on his mind. Also, i dont think the gap between Gary and the mere mortals like Nicky Dal is so great this year. The pts per game difference this year could be down to under 10pts.

The biggest worth for Gary tho, is the big C next to his name. It is because of this big C that every team should have the little champ in their team from round 1.
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Next up, we have the crowd favorite, Knighty.
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Ablett may have been overlooked for the Geelong captaincy, but in Supercoach thousands of teams should rely on him as...
Fo. Shizzle.

Alright guys, the 2010 stats are up and running. Now, that doesnt mean that development isnt still going on. (Particularly in the back end to speed things up), so if things go funny, let me know.

Right now, Im in the process of feeding new columns and data into the place, so this is a good chance to ask for any kind of information to be onscreen that currently isnt. A short list of the stuff that Ill be adding is: highest_salary, lowest_salary, medium_salary, std_dev as well as an assortment of average agaisnt statistics.

So let me know if theres anything you would like!

Now, because weve clicked over to the new year, Ive reset the Donor list (oh noes!), which as with last year, I didnt reset those who gave more than $20 last year (cause damn, thats generous!)

So if you want to get back on it- hit that little donate button up there and give til it hurts! Its all going to a good cause. (The keep TS running with Beer and Internet monies fund.)

Now, onto the Leagues. Weve filled one league and have started on another. Ill start handing out the league codes once we get at least two full (so that I can fulfill any conditions people might ask for) - So get in people, sign up your friends, your wives, your dogs, even your "wifes team" - *wink wink* *nudge nudge* We dont judge here... ;).

Also, there looks to be a bit of interest in running a $20 league. So were gunna run one.

Space is limited because I dont think well get two (but again, will run two if we get the interest).

If youre interested in the $20 league, send an email titled "TooSeriousLeagues$20" to <a href="mailto:too.serious.team.management@gmail.com?subject=TooSeriousLeagues$20">too.serious.team.management@gmail.com[/url] with the following information.
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Too Serious Leagues $20
Name.
Team name.
Preferred contact email address. (this one is really important if you win!)
Method of payment. (I would prefer you to make a paypal deposit to...
As we draw closer to the start of the NAB Cup, and therefore inch closer to the start of the 2010 Dreamteam season, it’s time to dig out the bargain picks for your Dreamteam! Here are some of my bargain picks.

Forwards - Patrick Dangerfield



Patrick is now entering his third season in the AFL system, commonly seen as the ‘breakout ‘year for young midfielders like Patrick. Playing predominantly as a small forward pocketer / HHF for 2009, A move to the Midfield is a likely move for 2010, Making him a perfect selection for 2010.



Adelaide fans rate this kid very highly, and why wouldn’t they, he is a natural. Dangerfield has great speed and skills. With a good pre season, and a little more size to his frame he is the perfect candidate to spend some extra time in the midfield.

Playing 19 games last year plus 2 finals, Patrick averaged 52 points per game. An increase of 15+ points isn’t out of the questions. $232,000 is his 2010 price, and I predict he will be a very popular pick.

Rucks - David Hille



David has been one of the most talked about players this pre-season.  How’s his pre season going? Has he recovered from his ACL knee reconstruction? What will his role in the Essendon team?  These are all very frequently asked questions in fantasy football land at the moment.

There are a lot of doubts hanging over this fellas head at the present time. Hille tore his ACL in Essendon’s round 5 ANZAC Day clash against Collingwood in 2009, and since this, I’m sure a lot of fantasy coaches have had Hille high on their radar.  As with most big men returning from these types of injuries, Hille has made a slow, but steady recovery, and is a race against time to be 100% fit for round 1. From most recent reports, Hille is completing full training, including contact drills. Matthew Knights has stated that they hoped for him to be back within 12 months from the initial injury,  and it’s...
Alright, I was going to wait til I had finally finished wiring TS up for the 2010 season, but there have been too many inquiries to hold off anymore.

So without further ado, allow me to officially open the Too Serious SuperCoach Leagues.

After last year, we learnt a few lessons, so things are going to be a little different this year.

Firstly, we are going to have a TooSerious administrator in each league that wont be eligible for prizes (So each comp will be out of 15.)

Secondly, we learnt that Paypal takes their cut on payment both ways, so Im gunna sift a little ($3.33) off the top to cover the admin costs. I hope everyone is cool with that.

And thirdly, the GF winner wont be getting a cash prize. They will be getting a mystery prize which hasnt been figured out yet. It could be something good, might just be a t-shirt, possibly a pack of pringles. Who knows, does anyone want to sponsor these things? Because we would love to give a shout out to your business throughout the season.

So, the details are as follows:
Entry fee: $50

1st prize based on overall ranking: $600
2nd prize based on overall ranking: $100
Grand final winner: Mystery prize

In addition to that, the boys over at <a href="http://yoursupercoachcoach.com/">Your SuperCoach Coach[/url] are trying to put together a league of leagues competition. currently the details are pretty sketchy, but the gist of it will be Elite leagues, brought together from the various SuperCoach sites off the web, competing against each other for both site-pride, and to scoop up the total cash prize pool. Tentatively, the entry fee for a league will be $250, so Im thinking a $10 entrance fee, with me picking up the rest sounds fair.

So, how to enter?

Firstly the TooSerious leagues.

I will need you to send an email to <a href="mailto: too.serious.team.management@gmail.com?subject=TooSeriousLeagues">too.serious.team.management@gmail.com[/url] with the title "TooSeriousLeagues" and following...
OK we are still thinking through the whole Multi Positional Players (MPP) thing.  And Im sure that people still need some rock solid examples to make their thoughts gel.  Im sure I do.

First lets get a few assumptions out of the way early.  Im happy to debate them.

1) You wont win just because you put a few MPPs in your team.
2) You wont win if you completely ignore MPPs through the entire competition - flexibility alone of players will be worth at least 1000 points which no-one (not even Chris) can afford to give up to his opponents.
3) The best value MPPs may never even play a match.
4) Not thinking before you lace a team with MPPs is the same as picking a team of players in the 350k range - will give you a quite easy wooden spoon in a competitive league.  This includes picking all MPPs in the same line so you cannot substitute them.
5) Thinking about MPPs is like thinking about cash-cow trades.  Two is the minimum to get the job done.
6) It doesnt matter (much) that Mitch Farmer is the lowest price MPP in the MID-DEF category at over the 150k mark.

Now I hear you asking wheres that Peace of Mind?  And for only $269k.  You cant get much for that, only Ladson and a bit of change.

Peace of Mind comes in the most unlikely of sources: Dylan McNeil, Matthew Lobbe and Jack Weston.  Combined, they cost 269k and look innocuous.  It would not shock me if we see under 15 games between the three of them this year.   But that doesnt mean you dont pick them in your team.  Walesy has tried to make this look easy and Im not sure if everyone here understands, but Im going to be simple and hopefully effective in this demonstration.  (Salesmans note though - buyer beware)

McNeil is the gutsy FOR9, Lobbe is the much-maligned RUC4 and Weston is the cursory DEF9.

Combine these three players with a few more for good measure - and keeping with the value theme - we will add to them a nucleus of: Waite (F), Pavlich (M) and Tippett (F) - three...