For those who take it way too seriously

You couldnt miss the back page of todays Herald Sun and Tony Shaw bagging out Mick Malthouses handle on the way to use Shaw.<blockquote>'He (Gibbs) sets up a goal at the other end of the ground and gets them back into the game and Heaths still sitting back there agaisnt a mug, sitting down there in the pocket'</blockquote>Yes, Mick what is he doing done in the pocket? When his tagger moved up the ground. Cant Shaw bloody run? Useless.

But, hopefully Tony coming out like this helps Shaw become that Shaw thing
again. The past 5 weeks have been hell for those that have him (even
more so for the ones that got him 5 weeks ago, which includes me) and
joy for those that once thought they missed the boat.

Round 8
- 45

Round 9
- 117

Round 10
- 31

Round 11
- 78

Round 12
- 31

Thats an average of 60.4, bloody hell even Nicoski is out
scoring him. Thats after he had a heathly average of 127 for seven
weeks. So, that works out to be a 67 point drop in form and a 187k drop
in price. So even if we did want to trade you we would get some hack
like Mundy. That brings me to the question...

Do you sell?
Hell no, he is capable of the big scores and although all teams now know he cant handle a tag, Mick Malthouse will hopefully listen to Shaw and move him up the gorund in the thick of it and make him run.

Do you buy?
Not yet, a breakeven of 123 should mean you
should wait one more week but next week, he is a must at about $383k
for those luckly bastards that dont have him. Chances are youve
probably had Gilbee or McLeod or Chadwick. Weve
all copped it. If anyone out there doesnt have any of those four give
us a yell - I would love to see how ya teams going.
Oh, rookies are going fast. This is your LAST chance to pick up a bargain. Prices cant go any lower. Thats what the crazy warehouse guy would be saying this week and he exactly right there are piss all decent rookies left with Gav and Dennis jumping in price this week. But, I will search through the 95k bin and see what I can find for those that need to downgrade.

The pick of the group would be baby-boy Callan Ward. Juggling VCE, footy and a recent wild 18th birthday party, so snagging an average of sub 50 seems alright too me. Not only that you can get Wardy in both Back and Mids. Dogs only have 4 injuries on there list so the fact that he getting a game might mean he is a stayer. Cooney, Griffdawg and Cross will get him a heap of the pill. Decent looking fella too, which is important. Garry Hairy Lyon also labelled him the next Rocket Eade, which I spose is good? But, into the stats he has a Breakeven of -40 and an expected rise of 40k. He will set you back the normal 95k.

Kangaroos on the other hand has a rather long injury list so, there boy in Josh Smith might be a 2-3 hit wonder. Just like the great SDT and Proud. Oh, the memories. But, anyway, he is a forward. Averages 27. And, costs 95k. I would still get Valenti before him, even if he does play this week. V-train is bound to get a game soon.

The Bens are also cheapish at about 140k a pot. One from the pies in Ben Reid, the other in Ben Davies from the wounded Kangaroos. Ben Reid hit a minus 4 in his first week, then banged on 80. Another Buddy? Ben Davies has been more consistent. They are there if any one wants them, but Im saying NO DEAL, Andrew.

Polkinghorne also finally got his second game, now has a break even of -23 and youll find him in the Midfield. Atkinson is the same, but at an average of 19. Look elsewhere.

Nick Lower...
I got a good response last week from my look back through the year with all the running backs getting tagged, but for now I will just look at the weekend ferret and those that could shake them off and those that just coulnt break the lock.

Adam Selwood has been in some fine form tagging people doing some excellent jobs on Heath Shaw, Andy McLeod plus many more he went to Stanton. This is a bloke who in the pass hasnt been able to break free all year. Well, on Friday he shocked us all escpaping from Selwood to net a cool 103 points. Which did include 10 tackles, but still. Andrew Welsh followed around last years favourite in Priddis. He done a decent job keeping Priddis to just 83 and collecting 112 with 14 tackles himself. Neagle also was believed to follow Embley but was off and on with an injury and Embley went on to get 103 points. Monfires was on Stenglien but it was barely a tag, both of them getting a fair bit of leather.

Woah, we are just through one game. Bloody hell. I will try to make it abit quicker. Dale Morris tagged Trav Johnstone. Travis struggled with a Hammy and only managed 19 points. Cross, Power, Griffen, Black, Adcock and Cooney all matched up on each other and they all ran free. Even Boyd stayed clear and focused on getting his own touches. Thats what we want to see more of.

This Ed Lower bloke is giving everyone the shits, going to another running back in Micheal Johnson who had a big fall from grace (183 points) to just 67. Bell got the ugly-looking Rawlings, and the Ding Dong could only gather 56 points. Crowley has been the tagger of the season (only one to keep Ablett sane, anyway) and kept Simpson pretty quite, only 76 points. Harvey was followed by Ibbo, while Palmer escaped any...
Ok, my predictions for this week were sensational. I said go for either Matthew Pavlich or Scott Thompson for captain in my last minute check. Pav got 164 and Scotty got 148. I also said avoid these two champions - Lance Franklin and Dean Cox. Well, what happened? Buddster only collected 66 and had to run up the ground to get those cause Bocky is the greatest backmen ever. Coxy could only get a season low 56.

In my best buys I didnt have that much luck with Bartel, Milburn and McLeod still below average. They will bounce back. Although, Gilbee got a decent 88, BJ wanged on 125 and Chapstick got 101.

You might listen now.
<p class="MsoNormal">[span style="font-family: 'Tahoma','sans-serif';">Another week
has gone, and most people have walked away with below average scores thanks to
the flops, but others like the Dog have bang on a decent score thanks to the stars.
Let’s quickly go through some of those stars and flops. Oh, and I love Nathan
. <o:p></o:p>


<p class="MsoNormal">[span style="font-family: 'Tahoma','sans-serif';">STARS[span style="font-family: 'Tahoma','sans-serif';">

Hille had a career high score of 168
to kick the week off. COOONEY is in
some fine touch and continues it with a 177. Slice of Pav (164) finally got a bag. As much as I hate Goodes, who shouldn’t have even been
playing got another awesome score of 147. My boy Bocky (142) done some lovely kick to kick with my other boy Stiff (128). Also, Bock kept Budweiser to
just one goal. What a legend. Scotty
also got among it with a 148. Jesus
(161) is making me more and more jealous. Fevola is a another big forward that went bang with 8 sausages. Richoooo
is still shocking us all with a massive 169<o:p></o:p>

<p class="MsoNormal">[span style="font-family: 'Tahoma','sans-serif';">FLOPS[span style="font-family: 'Tahoma','sans-serif';">

Cox was on a big flop Friday night
with 56, that was always going to happen. Palmer
and Rioli let down alot of Rookie
loving coaches. The saints midfield really got the Sydney curse – Hayes (69), Nicky Dal (45), Ball (28)
and ‘Tanga (24). Bateman twanged his hamstring and could
only collect 3 points. Bartel (60)
let me down in his first week. Kornes
handed out free kicks and easy disposal to Geelong and SuperCoach could only reward him
with 30 points. Didak had just a bad
game with 67. Heater Shaw is giving
90% of coaches the shits. Nicky Stevens...
As part of the latest upcoming update to TooSerious, Ive been tabluating teams For and Against scores.

Amusingly, Ive found that the current ladder (Based on for/against percentages for the ladder, along with any win-losses) would read like this.

<table style="BORDER-RIGHT: silver 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: silver 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: silver 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: silver 1pt solid"><tbody>Team



















































Which is pretty close to the actual ladder.

Which makes me wonder, can we use this data to make predictions about how we think the ladder will look at seasons end?

Teams 1-6, look pretty locked in. especially when you consider how much higher their percentages are over the rest of the league.

The both 4 teams look like they will stay down there (Based on percentages)

Which leaves 6 teams to fill the final two spots in the finals.

The current *real* 8th and 9th teams (STK and KAN) have the lowest percentage here, and as such, I dont think they will make the finals.

That said, the team coming 7th in percentage, Richmond, seems to have a nack of losing games the shouldnt have, and will be punished by a lack of wins.

Which leaves the final 2 spots in the finals open to Carlton, Port and Brisbane...

Im gunna lock in Brisbane and ... Port. Only because their run home is marginally easier than Carltons... (though round 19 might be a dooozy!)
This week provides us with some key players coming back into their sides and there are some few outs also. Watson is back for tonights game against the eagles, Houli out with a groin injury. Murphys back from suspension for the dogs, while Bradshaw is a big out for the Lions who welcome back Drummond into their side. Can this spell danger for Joel Mc? Wells and Josh Smith are back for the roos while the crown and hawks welcome back Griffen and Dew. Brent Renouf will make his debut for the hawks and may be a good downgrade in the ruck position this week. Big Bad Barrys back for the swans and will look to throw some punches against the saints who also welcome back King, Gilbert and Harvey. Out goes L.Fisher and Armitage. In Sundays games Pendlebury, J.Selwood and S.Burgoyne are back with Scarlett and J.King both big outs for their teams.

[span class="Normal">ESSENDON v WEST COAST EAGLES


Andrew Welsh, Dustin Fletcher, Nathan Lovett-Murray
HB: Brent Stanton, Patrick Ryder, Mark McVeigh
C: Kyle Reimers, Adam McPhee, Andrew Lovett
HF: Angus Monfries, Scott Lucas, David Myers
F: Jobe Watson, Matthew Lloyd, Jay Neagle
Foll: David Hille, Henry Slattery, Sam Lonergan
I/C: Adam Ramanauskas, Jay Nash, Leroy Jetta, Jason Laycock
EMG: Jarrod Atkinson, Ricky Dyson, Mal Michael

In: Laycock, Neagle, Ramanauskas, Watson
Out: Tom Bellchambers, Bachar Houli (groin), Tayte Pears (foot), Jason Winderlich (back)

West Coast Eagles

Beau Wilkes, Darren Glass, Mark Nicoski

Adam Selwood, Adam Hunter, Brett Jones
C: Andrew Embley, Daniel Kerr, Tim Houlihan
HF: Brad Ebert, Brent Staker, Sam Butler
F: David Wirrpanda, Quinten Lynch, Mark LeCras
Foll: Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Chris...
Oh, dont hit that C or T button just yet. Just a quick run down of what to do before making those changes.

1. Dennis Armfield and Gav might be the last two decent rookies all year - depending on Valenti getting a game - if you need any money. BUY NOW, they cant stay at this price any longer.
2. Scott Thompson loves playing Hawks (touches wise) with 34 disposables of the prune last time. Although, that only got him 87 points. Surely, he wont be that ineffiecentive this time round.
3. Buddy might be a Buddy bad pick for captain this week. Only getting 30 last time the Crows faced off with the Hawks. Who trusts him yet, anyway? Speaking of which, Big Cox also hates Dons. He just doesnt go well agaisnt them. Be careful.
4. Possible bargains this week include Jimmy Bartel, Andy McLeod and Paul Chapman. And, I better mention Danny Kerr to keep old Greg happy.
5. The Roos are struggling with big forwards lately with the Twin Towers getting 6 each agaisnt them and MOOOONEY snagging 7. Pav might be good choice for captain. But he does only average 90 against them the last 3 times.
Woof, woof. The dog has got some ripping buys this week, cheap backs are left, right and centre at the moment. There is finally a good buy in the midfield but there are reports going around that niggling injury is slowing him down. And, a couple of forwards. Lets go.

Andrew McLeod

Peaked: 566k. Now: 362k. BE: 82.
Ok, this is a massive risk. But, thats what SuperCoach is all about taking a risk and hoping it pays off. His form has been shocking low with 68, 44, 39, 69, 68. And, your probably asking: Why would I buy someone that has averaged 58 over the last 5 weeks. Well, in the first 6 rounds he had an average of 110 so we know he can score big and price is too good to ignore and like all the bargains he will stay bottomed out for a couple of weeks unless he scores a 300 or something.

Getting abit lazy this week and cant be typing out all that for each Best Buy this week, so we just go through them all breifly. Firstly, Bartel has an average of 111 but some below average scoring has pushed his price down to 516k, still got a BE of 118 so your got a couple of weeks to get on board. Last chance for Gilbee this week who is about to shoot up in price (Now: 440k) with a BE of 6. BJ has decided he is going to fall a little more (BE: 101) after just a 65, but he starting to get alot more of the ball. So, jump on him as soon, or as late as you want. Chappy wanted to give everyone a couple more weeks to buy him with just an 86, and will Break Even at 85 this week and he is still just under 500k. Milburn at 460k is still asking people to buy him, but he is about to shoot with BE of 67. Get in soon. Stanton is cheap at the moment, and is about to rise cause he finally got a score of 100. But, dont buy him.

Shaw thing is still bloody falling (BE: 157). Brad Ottens could be a good swap for Simmonds who will drop 72k this week...
With half the year already over and with many Supercoachers either nearly out of trades or have trades to burn, these coming weeks are very important weeks to start making your move in your league and in the overall rankings. Supercoachers across the whole competition are now looking for the little extra edge over everyone else for those league wins and if your lucky that end $25,000. So i have decided to write up about those players that are currently running hot and those players that are currently out of form. But apart from from the obvious stars like Ablett and Franklin i have decided to go with players that have been playing well above or below their average lately.

[span style="font-size: 1.2em;">Whos Hot
[span style="font-size: 0.8em;">1. Scott Thompson (Ade)
Average in the last 3 weeks: 138.6
Average before that: 100.25
Overall Average: 110.73
has taken his game to a new level over the last 3 weeks. Even though he
was averaging a very respectable 100.25 in his first 8 weeks, his last
3 have been outstanding. With scores of 135, 134 and 147 in the past 3
weeks it has highlighted not only his scoring skills but also his
consistency. Currently priced $568,100 i believe he would be a great
addition to any side.

2. Jonathan Brown (Bris)
Average in the last 4 weeks: 136
Average before that: 81
Overall Average: 103
big powerhouse forward from Brisbane has showed in the last 4 weeks why
many regard him as the best Centre Half Forward in the competition.
With scores of 131, 132, 165 and 116 since coming back from his week
off through injury he has shown why he should be in every Supercoach
side. He is also climbing back to his staring price of $597,000, he is
currently at $565,400.

3. Jason Akermanis (WB)
Average in the last 4 weeks: 123

Average before that: 86

Overall Average:99.45
former Brownlow medalist has been showing us that form recently that
got him the medal. Playing as a...