TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

note: this was written after round 8, prices / breakevens etc have changed, the principle remains the same.

Its at that time of year where everyone is looking at selling those
rookies, claiming a healthy little profit and using the profits on that
gun point scorer. However as usual making sure you use those measly 20
trades in the most effective manner is paramount, and this is where
your rookies breakeven is important.

Often people will look at their rookies and as soon as their
breakeven rises above their average they believe the player has
'peaked'. However this is not always the case and can cost you
significant dollars, and those precious trades. To illustrate this i am
going to use the Melbourne rookie midfielder Cale Morton.

Now Cale is one of the prime rookies looking at being sold for a
profit. Before round 8 he had a price of $216,500 an average of 59.29
and a breakeven of 61. After putting in two weeks of 39 and 49 (and
dropping $4,700) it looked like his time as a cash cow was over and i
am sure many people decided to trade.

However what you must remember is that a price of $216,500 is not
hard to maintain. Cale promptly dropped a 95 point game (which is not
his highest score, that was 97 in round 3 so he knows how to rack them
up) and he increased by $7,100. More importantly his breakeven has now
dropped all the way back down to 10! Yep, 10!! Plus he gets the benefit
of a score of 95 in his average for 3 weeks.

What does this mean? Well if he scores 63 (his current average) for
the next 2 weeks he will increase another $32,000 and still have a
breakeven below his average!!!!

So, which would you prefer? A
used trade and a potential saving of say $5 - $10k if Cale puts in a
bad one? Or to save the trade and maybe hold out for some more serious
gains?

Now obviously this isnt always the case. Everyones favorite cash
cow, Josh Hill, is an example where holding out will have cost you over
$25k the past three weeks (but he is still up over $100k)...
Jarrad Waite is <a href="http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,23759987-19742,00.html">facing a one game ban[/url] for striking Fremantles Chris Manye. While, Sam Mitchell will play for your fantasy team this week, but his Brownlow hopes might be gone - he has been offered 93.75. Nath Jones and Pavlich copped a fine. Not a heap happened on the injury front on the weekend. Symes and Ottens could be back this week.
I read through alot of forums and things that relate to SuperCoach and the amount of people that do pointless upgrades is amazing. Everyone wants the Shaws, Abletts and Franklins but sometimes we might have to settle for a Milburn, or a Swan, or a Chappy.

I can understand their thought process 'Bloody [Gilbee, Kornes, Mattner, etc] I paid 550k for you and your only averaging 80' but then they show there rest of there team and they have Taylor on ground and then they still have Nathan Thompson and Tom Hawkins sitting in the forward line. They just want the best straight away.

Trading Burton could get you someone like Franklin, but really at the end of the season he only going to collect 10-15 more points per game (at most), if you then look at Nathan Thompson who will probably score about 70 all year and upgrade him to someone cheap like Chappy who might average 100. Sure you still dont have Franklins big 180 points, but you have a much better improvement to your team and it cosh you about the same amount of greenbacks. Now what looks better: Franklin and Thompson or Burton and Chapman?&nbsp; I just had to let this out, cause Im just about have had enough of pointless so called upgrades.

If you need any advices on how you could improve your team, simply post here and Ill give you my advice on what would be best. And, keep an eye out for DOGS BEST BUYS - some rippers this week, and coming up.&nbsp;
<p class="MsoNormal">[span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Another round has gone, and
if you didn’t score too well I wouldn’t worry about it because it was an awful
week for any real massive scores. Here’s a bit of wrap up of the week and I
took away the “ABOVE PAR” because it’s easier to just sort them in two simple
groups. I haven’t got my stat of the week yet, need to do some more research
but it’s a good one.

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<div class="entry-more">
<p class="MsoNormal">[span style="font-family: Tahoma;">[span style="font-size: 1.2em;">SUPERSTARS.<o:p></o:p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"></st1:place></st1:city>

[span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Geelong only had 2 players hit the hundred, no surprises
who they are Ablett (127) and Corey (105). While Heater (116) bounces back.
Swan (109) escapes from the Clingage, while a popular cash cow in Wellingham
(105) scores his highest ever score. Stevens (132) dominates in the blues win,
Carrazzo (117), Bentick (129), Waite (120) help him out. Pav (111) the only
light for Freo. To prove that Sydney<st1:place w:st="on"></st1:place>
are pain when it comes to fantasy scoring - Ebert (110) kicked 6 goals and
still only just broke the hundred. Cassisi (110) and Pearce (100) also snuck
over. Kirk (151) is ripping it up lately. Hey Jude (136) was also solid. And,
what about Shit Schmidt (105) doubling his DreamTeam score for Super Coach ton, as did
West Coast’s Wikies (106) keep an eye on him. Nath Brown (168) is back. <st1:place w:st="on"></st1:place>Del<st1:state w:st="on"></st1:state> (111) and Foley
(137) also starred. Lloyd (123) is the only bomber to crack 100. West Coast’s
midfielders are still tearing it up Priddis (143), Flecther (144) and Embley
(153). Thompson (135) is...
<a href="http://www.fanfooty.com.au/">FanFooty[/url] has a great live scores, but you have those tossers in the comments bar. Some of the dickhead examples...

'I have [insert lowest scoring players name] as captain... bugger'.
'[insert stars name] has done a knee' when, really he is only off for a spell.
'Oh, get me another 20 points [insert a player on 130 already here]'.

If their was a way to close the box I would be telling ya to go there... But, instead have some fun with the DreamTeam Talk boys and there Live Scores. They have a comments box too but atleast it aint full with low life losers. Get on board.

<ul><li>
<p align="justify"><a target="_blank" href="http://dreamteamtalk.com/livestats/scores.php?ID=10220902">Carlton vs Fremantle[/url] - Telstra Dome - 2:10pm
</li>

<li>
<p align="justify"><a target="_blank" href="http://dreamteamtalk.com/livestats/scores.php?ID=10220903">Port Adelaide vs Sydney[/url] - AAMI Stadium - 3:10pm
</li>

<li>
<p align="justify"><a target="_blank" href="http://dreamteamtalk.com/livestats/scores.php?ID=10220904">West Coast vs Adelaide [/url]- Subiaco - 7:40pm
</li>

<li>
<p align="justify"><a target="_blank" href="http://dreamteamtalk.com/livestats/scores.php?ID=10220905">Essendon vs Richmond [/url]- MCG - 7:45pm
</li></ul>
Everyone was scoring about their average until Saturday night and Big Cox comes in a scores a 83 - that doesnt surprise me cause he my captain. And, I have had a shocker year with captains. Then Birdman going from 178 to 4. Unbelievable. Hows your boys going?
Everyone loves FanFootys live scoring, well not as much as our <a href="http://dreamteamtalk.com/">DT Talk[/url] boys. But, it is a sensational site. This is breaking news and has been first reported on TooSerious. It even looks like FanFooty hasnt even announced it but their live scoring has got some sweet new icons. Some Im not even sure what they mean, but theres no doubt we will find out on the weekend.

But, have a look at the at a couple from last week: <a href="http://live.fanfooty.com.au/game/matchscores.html?id=866">Carl Vs Bris[/url], <a href="http://live.fanfooty.com.au/game/matchscores.html?id=865">Cats Vs Tigers[/url]. And, just change the number in the URL around to look at more.

Love your work, Monty.
New name, and new style. In the past I have just done my research on breakevens and chance of rising in price. But this week Ive put a bit more effort in to see how they usually preform against the team that they are against and a couple of other fun facts. I realise its a massive week in selecting your upgrades, so this is must read.

Read <a href="http://tooserious.typepad.com/tooserious_sc/2008/05/need-some-dough.html#more">here[/url] to find out how to afford these players.

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[span style="font-size: 1.4em;">BARGAIN OF THE WEEK.[span style="font-size: 0.6em;">
Ok, this is where the cheapest and most times best pick-up of the week goes. If you dont have him, get him.

[span style="font-size: 0.6em;">&nbsp;
Johnno Brown.
Started: 597k. Now: 429k. BE: 72. Ave: 88.
He has finally stopped dropping and is looking at a rise of about 6k if he scores his average this week but, I sure he will thump that up against the struggling Saints. And, he now taking marks cause on weekend I believe that Bradshaw was still a more popular target inside 50 up to half time. But, Im sure everyone has him now so I more I type the more Im wasting my time.

[span style="font-size: 1.4em;">BEST BUYS
[span style="font-size: 0.6em;">Other than the bargain of the week, these guys will be very handy pick ups this week.
[span style="font-size: 1.2em;">
Paul Chapman.[span style="font-size: 0.8em;">
Started: 604k. Peaked: 613k. Now: 487k. BE: 60. Ave: 102.
This blokes average is over 100 but, is still under 500k. Speaks for itself he is a Best Buy at its best. Epscially if your planning on upgrading in your forward line (unless Brown-less) or even like myself in the midfield if you cant afford any of the blokes below. He is up against Collingwood on Friday Night who he seems to enjoy playing and he is in some super form coming off a 132 last week. Chappy will make you happy. [span style="font-size: 0.8em;">

[span style="font-size:...
Two massive returns this week with Chad Cornes and Nick Riewoldt named on the ground. Will they play though? Josh Fraser and Stokes have both returned for the Friday Night clash. NLM, McPhee, Dyson and Watson are big ins for Essendon, but out goes Houli Douli with a virus (a must downgrade to Cotchin or Wellingham - both named), Laydick, Mal Micheal and Rama. Tigers go tall with Pattison and Schulz back. Out goes Nicoski, but still no Scott Selwood. Instead two new blokes in Tim Houlihan and Beau Wilkies and last weeks debutant Ryan Davis named again. Alot of fresh blood at West Coast. Geary might return for St. Kilda, he is named on the extended bench. So, does a bunch of other players for the Sunday games except a highly rated ruckman in John Messen who still hasnt got a gig even though Jamar has been axed. Valenti holds his spot.


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Collingwood v Geelong
MCG, 7.40pm

[span style="font-weight: bold;">COLLINGWOOD
B: Heath Shaw, Shane Wakelin, Rhyce Shaw
HB: Nick Maxwell, Nathan Brown, Harry O’Brien
C: Scott Pendlebury, Scott Burns, Tarkyn Lockyer
HF: Alan Didak, Anthony Rocca, Paul Medhurst
F: Dane Swan, Travis Cloke, Dale Thomas
Foll:&nbsp; Josh Fraser, Shane O’Bree, Leon Davis
Int: Martin Clarke, Ben Johnson, Sharrod Wellingham, Chris Bryan
Emg: Ryan Cook, Ryan Lonie, Cameron Wood

In: Fraser
Out: Wood (omitted)

GEELONG
B: Tom Harley, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Darren Milburn, Harry Taylor, Corey Enright
C: Cameron Ling, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman
F: James Kelly, Tom Hawkins, Mathew Stokes
Foll: Mark Blake, Gary Ablett, Joel Corey
Int: Trent West, Andrew Mackie, Ryan Gamble, David Wojcinski
Emg: Shannon Byrnes, Travis Varcoe, Max RookeIn: Stokes, West

Out: Max Rooke, Shane...
As written in the latest email from the Fantasy Freako:

In the pre-season, subscribers to my e-letter received exclusive DreamTeam stats on all players throughout the NAB Regional Challenge. It seems as though that information was highly valued by readers, so I have decided to offer up some more never-before-seen information that may help your DreamTeam player selections in the coming years. As a true fantasy freak, I am able to get my hands on weekly DreamTeam scores for this year’s potential draftees. Names such as Naitanui, Rich, Hurley and Yarran may mean nothing to you now but then again this time last year you probably hadn’t heard of Palmer, Rioli and Wonaeamirri, and they are 2008’s three biggest DreamTeam price-risers so far. If you knew like I did when picking your team that Palmer averaged 130 in last year’s U18 Champs then you wouldn’t be so surprised to see him rack up over 70 pts in six of his first seven AFL games. Division one of the 2008 NAB Under-18 Championships starts this weekend so in the coming weeks I’ll keep you posted with the players to keep an eye on for next year. I have had a quick look over the numbers from last year’s carnival and it paints an amazingly accurate picture of the players who turned out to be the steals of early 2008. Here are some of the more notable DreamTeam averages from the three games at last year’s NAB AFL Under-18 Champs:

<ul><li>Player - DreamTeam Ave.</li>

<li>Rhys Palmer - 130.3</li>

<li>Cyril Rioli - 114.3</li>

<li>Craig Bird - 110.7</li>

<li>Cale Morton - 107.7</li>

<li>Austin Wonaeamirri - 92.3</li>

<li>Chris Masten - 92.3</li>

<li>David Myers - 90.3</li>

<li>Matthew Kreuzer - 86.7</li>

<li>Brad Ebert - 86.7</li>

<li>Scott Selwood - 85.7</li>

<li>Steven Browne - 74.3</li>

<li>Trent Cotchin - 52.3</li>

<li>Jarrhan Jacky - 50.3</li>

<li>Darcy Daniher - 38.3</li></ul>

This will be very exciting I reckon, in particular for Rising Star betting. :p

Seriously though, this...