TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

Horrible horrible round seven.

Seriously. Round Seven makes the baby Ablett cry!

Players getting pulled, dropped, injured.

What a horrible. horrible week.

Heck, I still havent the heart to look at my shambling mess of a squad to see what I can salvage from this week.

Me thinks Im up for a few zeros this week. :)

How have you guys faired?

Bock, Goodwin, Fraser, Hodge, Kornes, Salopek, Kerr, Higgins, Brown, Houlihan, Swan

How many have you got?

Luckily my Supercoach team is steady, with only Five of them (Sadly, I moved Houlihan... for Hodge.)

My DreamTeam team on the other hand... ouch.
Gary Ablett could play next week against the Kangaroos, according to his article in the Herald Sun today.

I cant be bothered writing out the whole thing, but here are the highlights.

"the scan showed the hips are found and there is no inflammation around the pubis bone" No osteitis pubis then.

"We do regular tests to measure our core strength, and thats what well be using to work out when Im back at 100% and ready to play"

"This week the aim is to ramp it up (at training)"

"I want to make sure I get it right now rather than having to battle through games later on" This suggests theyll rest him if hes only 90% fit.

"Theres a chance Ill play against North Melbourne this Saturday....the worst case scenario is agains the Western Bulldogs the following week."

Hopefully Gazza doesnt do the Richo thing and makes sure he is fully fit and ready to go when he does return. But at least we know it wont be a permanent 2-3 weeks away from returning, like Ottens was last year.

Edit: Here is the <a href="http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,,25453495-5016212,00.html" target="_blank">link[/url], courtesy of Spud.

UPDATE: Gary Ablett will miss this weeks game against NM, according to <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76698/default.aspx" target="_blank">Mark Thompson.[/url]

"While Ottens is yet to hit the training track, star onballer Gary Ablett has been running at 80 per cent but will not be risked this weekend against North Melbourne.

After missing last week’s win over the Sydney Swans with an adductor strain, the 24-year-old has been banging down medical staff’s door to prove his fitness, but Thompson said the Cats would not be swayed.

“The plan was always for two weeks and when it initially happened we gave a range (of weeks out) and two was the plan,” he said.

“Nothing has changed in our eyes. We’ve designed a rehab program to get him up to play not this week, but the following...
See the Bombers fly up, up! Great win last night, but not a great start for anyone with lots of Hawthorn players.

Buddy finally broke the century barrier, but Luke Hodge not only scored 45, but is expected to miss 2/3 weeks in a similar injury to Gary Abletts. Considering a lot of sides are already taking a zero this week, that news couldnt be worse.

On the other hand, for today only, Essendon is a top 4 side! Didnt think I would see that for a few years!

So how is everyone else doing?
On the Seventh round, gods son rested.

Which is terrible news for just about everyone competing for the Buckley this year.

From memory, only two or three teams out their dont have the great man.

They must be licking their chops right now... :)

Im just gunna give a quick update on the top 10 players from each comp... To keep an air of mystery going on.

<blockquote>
Supercoach

10 - Gary Ablett
9 - Leon Davis
7 - Brendon Goddard
7 - Sam Mitchell
6 - Joel Bowden
6 - Matthew Boyd
6 - Matthew Richardson
6 - Nick Dal Santo
6 - Nick Riewoldt
6 - Paul Chapman
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Dreamteam

9 - Gary Ablett
9 - Leigh Montagna
7 - Bernie Vince
7 - Nick Dal Santo
7 - Paul Chapman
6 - Brent Stanton
6 - Darren Jolly
6 - Leon Davis
6 - Nick Riewoldt
5 - Chad Cornes
5 - Jimmy Bartel
5 - Joel Bowden
5 - Paul Hasleby
5 - Steve Johnson
</blockquote>

So, how are your picks weighing up?
Yeah I hate to say I told you so, but Dayne Beams is out with a groin injury.  Steele Sidebottom has been named in an extended bench, but if you put your faith in him getting a run, you have faith in him getting a run ahead of Shaw.   Maybe if he doesnt come up, but youd think Stanley with more AFL experience and a 4 goal performance in the VFL would get the gig.

Big ins and outs this week though.   I think a few people would have Richardson, Yarran, Houlihan, Wells, Pratt, Hartlett, Ablett, Knights, Beams - all out.

And for a change, Cheney is on the extended bench.   I would say zero chance of getting a game though.

The ins and outs and extended benches:

Essendon: In: Neagle, Bellchambers, Houli Out: Dustin Fletcher (leg), Scott Lucas, Leroy Jetta (knee)

Hawthorn: In: Birchall, McGlynn, Stokes Out: Brent Guerra (back), Jarryd Morton, Brent Renouf

Richmond: In: Brown, Cousins, Simmonds Out: Matthew Richardson (hamstring), Jordan McMahon, Mitch Morton


Brisbane: No changes

Carlton: In: Chris Yarran, Shaun Hampson Mark Austin Richard Hadley Out: Greg Bentley, Setanta O’hAilpin, Andrew Carrazzo, Ryan Houlihan

Fremantle: In: Pratt Out: Ryan Crowley (foot) New: Luke Pratt (Swan Districts)

North Melbourne: In: Wells, Campbell, Ross, Goldstein Out: Pratt (knee), Greenwood, Power, Lower

Port Adelaide:In: Davenport Out: Hamish Hartlett (hamstring) New: Jason Davenport (Geelong)

Geelong: In: Harley, Ling Out: Gary Ablett (groin), David Johnson

Sydney: No changes

Western Bulldogs: In: Ward, Welsh, Williams
I/C (from): Dylan Addison, Callan Ward, Nathan Eagleton, Andrejs Everitt, Daniel Giansiracusa, Liam Picken, Scott Welsh

Adelaide: In: Knights, Maric, Moran, Shirley, Symes Out: Cook, Griffin
I/C (from): Shirley, Symes, Maric, Knights,...
<blockquote>GARY Ablett will miss up to three weeks for Geelong following scans on his injured groin.</blockquote>
<a href="http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25426395-19742,00.html?from=public_rss" target="_blank">http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25426395-19742,00.html?from=public_rss[/url]

Everyone PANIC! With Beams and Hartlett also injured and other benchwarmers in Liam Anthony and Mitch Robinson still warming the pine, this is a big problem.

If you are in serious contention for the overall, (Im talking top 200 or so here), well you probably dont need my help because youre doing so well. :p Seriously, though, Im going to propose the unthinkable and say that I would trade out Jesus. With over 100 thousand on offer as well as the benefits of proven performers Neon Leon, Chris Judd , Jimmy Bartel, or Nick Dal Santo (who are all options for the captaincy as well, which we have to think about now :( )

However for the rest of us mortals who just want a league win, you cant trade out of Gary Ablett. Instead, you just have to find a way to get a playing substitute for 2/3 weeks. Unfortunately, there arent that many playing cheap midfielders, so a straight swap with another of your non-playing rookies may be impossible. Andrew Collins (153,100), David Zaharakis (205,700) or Matt De Boer/Adam Cockie if they are selected (83,400/94,200) are your best options. Tom Swift (94,200) is another rookie who impressed in the preseason who is likely to make his <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76249/default.aspx" target="_blank">debut[/url] this week, though Cockie is probably ahead of him (he made his debut first didn’t he?)  The advantage here is you get money and only need one trade, but you lose a lot of points and have to worry about them playing each week. This is probably the best option if you are low on trades.

If you dont want to get rid of Gazza or get one of these rookies, a clever upgrade of...
Because Ablett deserves his own topic, Im gunna run on the forward front.

Firstly <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76234/default.aspx">Lucas dropped[/url].

<blockquote>
ESSENDON has dropped out of form forward Scott Lucas after the veteran again struggled in his sides loss to the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night.

Coach Mathew Knights said on Tuesday that Lucas has been given the option of either turning out for Essendons VFL affiliate the Bendigo Bombers this weekend or taking a week off from football altogether.
</blockquote>

With luck, it will just be for the week, but if youre still keeping the faith in him, its looking bleaker all the time.
(DT-wise though, it might be worth waiting a week as hes appreciating value over there, not LEAKING IT LIKE A SIEVE!)

The irrepressible Richoman, is slightly more repressible now, a <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76230/default.aspx">season ending injury[/url] burning him, and a lot of coaches.
<blockquote>
RICHMOND superstar Matthew Richardsons season could be over with immediate surgery required to repair a tear in his left hamstring tendon.

The 10-12 week recovery period would leave him precious little time to get match-fit before the end of the season, with Richmond struggling at 1-5 and looking set to miss the finals.
</blockquote>

Unfortunately, Richo has dropped 70k in value first before his little holiday, but it is definitely time to trade him out.

So what do we have to play with. 475k.

All of my *honest* suggestions will weigh in higher than that I think.

Neon Leon (627k - currently playing at 677k), is a freak at the moment. If youve got the cajones, he might be worth a looking.
Roo (617k - currently playing at 664k after a slow start), is going from strength to strength, however, might be too expensive now to represent good value.
The Chapstick (548k - currently playing at 571k), is looking good value....
<Magpie bias enclosed>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">What I saw is the man who has BT as one of his many fans,  the KING of Leon is number 2 in Supercoach scoring this year, second only the The Great One – GAJ...w[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">ho by the way could be out this week!
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small; font-family: Calibri;"> 
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">So Mr King of Leon could be king of the rodeo!  You want to use somebody to get in the team this week to cover Boomer absence; well here is an option who might get more than four kicks.
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small; font-family: Calibri;"> 
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">Averaging 137 – more than the Dal or the God, Neon (or "Sex" Magic as he prefers to be called) has blitzed in the last few weeks, with the young mans profile going up so much Im sure I can hear California waiting for him.[span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">I still consider him a flat track bully, but he has come on call for my midfield without Wells (he is at a high point in the cycle admittedly…but 137 is a huge average after 6).   Over at fanfooty, Mollys chambers might not be full enough to get him, but 137 again I cant argue with a bit of the old holly roller novocaine after seeing that up in lights over lunch.
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span...
How your boys going? Is anyone else out there silly enough to go for Cloke or Thomas instead of Leon, like me. What about Beams, 2 week injury and will only be $231,448 after this round and without a big score from the little fella yet, Im was expecting that to go way higher. The kid is definitely capable of a couple of 100s this year! Maybe this is a chance for Sidebottom?
Dont you just love Thursdays.  The teams come out, the chance to see if your young gun is in this week from the reserves/VFL (he isnt), to see if the culprit for last weeks inexplicable loss is gone (he isnt).

Its also the day that generally our "friends" at News Limited bring out the Supercoach PDF.  Generally pretty obvious info up the top, and some relatively decent stats at the bottom.   This weeks is at the following link if you havent indulged yet: <a href="http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf">http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf[/url]

One of the less noted columns, or probably totally misunderstood is the PER - Price earning ratio, derived by dividing current value by current average.   Keeping things simple for the fans, I will state it simply.   If the PER for a player is $5000 or more, the player is overvalued and likely over the next few weeks to come down.   If the PER is less than $5000 he has more value climbing to do.

Of course its nowhere near as precise as Walesy and the TooSerious breakevens.  But it does help you with trends.  Trends in particular like "has my player maxed out"?

Taylor Walker, $4261, maybe very close.

Jared Petrenko $3921, no

Andy Otten, $3484, no

Daniel Rich, $3817, no

 Dayne Beams, $2939, hell no

and so on...you can do the reading yourselves.

 

Whats also interesting is finding the blue chippers who are $5000 and over.   These are guys who could just be value in the future - a bad/avg round now and they could easy drop.   Or their average doesnt justify their current high price...and hence if they keep the average for a few rounds, their price will go down.

Check them out with their next few rounds in TS Main Page.   Effectively this is playing the futures market, so its NOT for this week.   But keep your eyes open because they are overvalued.  Dont trade IN this week, that could be a bad move.

Marshmallow Thompson...