TooSerious

Yeah I hate to say I told you so, but Dayne Beams is out with a groin injury.  Steele Sidebottom has been named in an extended bench, but if you put your faith in him getting a run, you have faith in him getting a run ahead of Shaw.   Maybe if he doesnt come up, but youd think Stanley with more AFL experience and a 4 goal performance in the VFL would get the gig.

Big ins and outs this week though.   I think a few people would have Richardson, Yarran, Houlihan, Wells, Pratt, Hartlett, Ablett, Knights, Beams - all out.

And for a change, Cheney is on the extended bench.   I would say zero chance of getting a game though.

The ins and outs and extended benches:

Essendon: In: Neagle, Bellchambers, Houli Out: Dustin Fletcher (leg), Scott Lucas, Leroy Jetta (knee)

Hawthorn: In: Birchall, McGlynn, Stokes Out: Brent Guerra (back), Jarryd Morton, Brent Renouf

Richmond: In: Brown, Cousins, Simmonds Out: Matthew Richardson (hamstring), Jordan McMahon, Mitch Morton


Brisbane: No changes

Carlton: In: Chris Yarran, Shaun Hampson Mark Austin Richard Hadley Out: Greg Bentley, Setanta O’hAilpin, Andrew Carrazzo, Ryan Houlihan

Fremantle: In: Pratt Out: Ryan Crowley (foot) New: Luke Pratt (Swan Districts)

North Melbourne: In: Wells, Campbell, Ross, Goldstein Out: Pratt (knee), Greenwood, Power, Lower

Port Adelaide:In: Davenport Out: Hamish Hartlett (hamstring) New: Jason Davenport (Geelong)

Geelong: In: Harley, Ling Out: Gary Ablett (groin), David Johnson

Sydney: No changes

Western Bulldogs: In: Ward, Welsh, Williams
I/C (from): Dylan Addison, Callan Ward, Nathan Eagleton, Andrejs Everitt, Daniel Giansiracusa, Liam Picken, Scott Welsh

Adelaide: In: Knights, Maric, Moran, Shirley, Symes Out: Cook, Griffin
I/C (from): Shirley, Symes, Maric, Knights,...

<blockquote>GARY Ablett will miss up to three weeks for Geelong following scans on his injured groin.</blockquote>
<a href="http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25426395-19742,00.html?from=public_rss" target="_blank">http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25426395-19742,00.html?from=public_rss[/url]

Everyone PANIC! With Beams and Hartlett also injured and other benchwarmers in Liam Anthony and Mitch Robinson still warming the pine, this is a big problem.

If you are in serious contention for the overall, (Im talking top 200 or so here), well you probably dont need my help because youre doing so well. Seriously, though, Im going to propose the unthinkable and say that I would trade out Jesus. With over 100 thousand on offer as well as the benefits of proven performers Neon Leon, Chris Judd , Jimmy Bartel, or Nick Dal Santo (who are all options for the captaincy as well, which we have to think about now )

However for the rest of us mortals who just want a league win, you cant trade out of Gary Ablett. Instead, you just have to find a way to get a playing substitute for 2/3 weeks. Unfortunately, there arent that many playing cheap midfielders, so a straight swap with another of your non-playing rookies may be impossible. Andrew Collins (153,100), David Zaharakis (205,700) or Matt De Boer/Adam Cockie if they are selected (83,400/94,200) are your best options. Tom Swift (94,200) is another rookie who impressed in the preseason who is likely to make his <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76249/default.aspx" target="_blank">debut[/url] this week, though Cockie is probably ahead of him (he made his debut first didn’t he?)  The advantage here is you get money and only need one trade, but you lose a lot of points and have to worry about them playing each week. This is probably the best option if you are low on trades.

If you dont want to get rid of Gazza or get one of these rookies, a clever upgrade of...

Because Ablett deserves his own topic, Im gunna run on the forward front.

Firstly <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76234/default.aspx">Lucas dropped[/url].

<blockquote>
ESSENDON has dropped out of form forward Scott Lucas after the veteran again struggled in his sides loss to the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night.

Coach Mathew Knights said on Tuesday that Lucas has been given the option of either turning out for Essendons VFL affiliate the Bendigo Bombers this weekend or taking a week off from football altogether.
</blockquote>

With luck, it will just be for the week, but if youre still keeping the faith in him, its looking bleaker all the time.
(DT-wise though, it might be worth waiting a week as hes appreciating value over there, not LEAKING IT LIKE A SIEVE!)

The irrepressible Richoman, is slightly more repressible now, a <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/76230/default.aspx">season ending injury[/url] burning him, and a lot of coaches.
<blockquote>
RICHMOND superstar Matthew Richardsons season could be over with immediate surgery required to repair a tear in his left hamstring tendon.

The 10-12 week recovery period would leave him precious little time to get match-fit before the end of the season, with Richmond struggling at 1-5 and looking set to miss the finals.
</blockquote>

Unfortunately, Richo has dropped 70k in value first before his little holiday, but it is definitely time to trade him out.

So what do we have to play with. 475k.

All of my *honest* suggestions will weigh in higher than that I think.

Neon Leon (627k - currently playing at 677k), is a freak at the moment. If youve got the cajones, he might be worth a looking.
Roo (617k - currently playing at 664k after a slow start), is going from strength to strength, however, might be too expensive now to represent good value.
The Chapstick (548k - currently playing at 571k), is looking good value....

<Magpie bias enclosed>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">What I saw is the man who has BT as one of his many fans,  the KING of Leon is number 2 in Supercoach scoring this year, second only the The Great One – GAJ...w[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">ho by the way could be out this week!
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small; font-family: Calibri;"> 
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">So Mr King of Leon could be king of the rodeo!  You want to use somebody to get in the team this week to cover Boomer absence; well here is an option who might get more than four kicks.
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small; font-family: Calibri;"> 
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">Averaging 137 – more than the Dal or the God, Neon (or "Sex" Magic as he prefers to be called) has blitzed in the last few weeks, with the young mans profile going up so much Im sure I can hear California waiting for him.[span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span style="font-size: small;">[span style="font-family: Calibri;">I still consider him a flat track bully, but he has come on call for my midfield without Wells (he is at a high point in the cycle admittedly…but 137 is a huge average after 6).   Over at fanfooty, Mollys chambers might not be full enough to get him, but 137 again I cant argue with a bit of the old holly roller novocaine after seeing that up in lights over lunch.
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">[span...

How your boys going? Is anyone else out there silly enough to go for Cloke or Thomas instead of Leon, like me. What about Beams, 2 week injury and will only be $231,448 after this round and without a big score from the little fella yet, Im was expecting that to go way higher. The kid is definitely capable of a couple of 100s this year! Maybe this is a chance for Sidebottom?

Dont you just love Thursdays.  The teams come out, the chance to see if your young gun is in this week from the reserves/VFL (he isnt), to see if the culprit for last weeks inexplicable loss is gone (he isnt).

Its also the day that generally our "friends" at News Limited bring out the Supercoach PDF.  Generally pretty obvious info up the top, and some relatively decent stats at the bottom.   This weeks is at the following link if you havent indulged yet: <a href="http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf">http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf[/url]

One of the less noted columns, or probably totally misunderstood is the PER - Price earning ratio, derived by dividing current value by current average.   Keeping things simple for the fans, I will state it simply.   If the PER for a player is $5000 or more, the player is overvalued and likely over the next few weeks to come down.   If the PER is less than $5000 he has more value climbing to do.

Of course its nowhere near as precise as Walesy and the TooSerious breakevens.  But it does help you with trends.  Trends in particular like "has my player maxed out"?

Taylor Walker, $4261, maybe very close.

Jared Petrenko $3921, no

Andy Otten, $3484, no

Daniel Rich, $3817, no

 Dayne Beams, $2939, hell no

and so on...you can do the reading yourselves.

 

Whats also interesting is finding the blue chippers who are $5000 and over.   These are guys who could just be value in the future - a bad/avg round now and they could easy drop.   Or their average doesnt justify their current high price...and hence if they keep the average for a few rounds, their price will go down.

Check them out with their next few rounds in TS Main Page.   Effectively this is playing the futures market, so its NOT for this week.   But keep your eyes open because they are overvalued.  Dont trade IN this week, that could be a bad move.

Marshmallow Thompson...

And to a lesser degree, Palmer and Richoman.

Oh, the pain of this week! But were here to help... or perhaps Lucas is here to help? Im going to replicate his Harvey advice in a new post as I think its beautiful.

<blockquote>Assuming no cash in the bank
For Harvey (M) - I see Gibbs as the perfect midfield trade. K Cornes or Power are other not so bad options, Power the better.
For Harvey (F) - ROK, Buddylove, Lids, J Brown, B Johnson - all reasonable options.

I think Harvey (M) deserves a trade straight away, Harvey (F) Id keep on the bench if I had cover because another week and the forwards scores of most of those listed will come down.

On the future midfield trades, players like Judd (high BE this week) and Cooney (a few weeks after returning he will get back to good 90s scores and be valued at 400). At the very low end (cash cow etc) you have players like Collins (not sure) and Coughlan (could be worth thinking about if hes back to what we know hes capable of and if youre not risk-averse).

For Hille, well youre like me, youre screwed! Waiting with cover is the best option, then you will probably be able to do a straight trade (or with <50k) into Sandilands/Kreuzer/Petrie etc. Whoever takes your fancy really.</blockquote>

With cash, Im going to re-tract what I said last week (and curse him too perhaps?) But Roo is in blistering form. Heck, the Saints are in blistering form. Anything they touch turns to gold- and like Geelong in 07, not jumping on board was game ending...

Hille on the other hand... man, Im screwed!

Alright, not really Fantasy football related, more poker related...

But I thought I would give it a little plug.

<blockquote>$100 Freeroll

Date

Wednesday 29th April, 8PM

Prize

This tournament is a freeroll with $100 in prize money.

No entry fee!

Details
<a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=570925">Click here[/url]

The <a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/">Big Footy[/url] poker leagues were a lot of fun. (especially when you end up in the money!)

One thing though, as part of the process, youll need to sign up to PokerPremiers, so give us a little referal love <a href="http://www.pokerpremiers.com/ref-7624">[here][/url]</blockquote>



<a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/">Big Footy[/url] ran these games weekly throughout the season last year. I image theyll do the same this year.

Hope to see you in there!

Showing my chronic lack of time at the moment, my first Supercoach lesson is going to be an <a href="http://dreamteamlord.podbean.com/2009/04/27/dtrml-pre-round-6/">interview[/url].

By someone else.

Of a Dreamteam specialist...



But! The concepts are very similar and translate fairly well to Supercoach.

Its done by those folks over at <a href="http://dreamteamlord.podbean.com/">DreamTeam ruined my life[/url] (watch the swearing... ), and is an interview of legendary Dreamteamer- Skankdanker.

As one of <a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/">BigFootys[/url] "No-Passangers", hes put together consistant high-ratings for a number of years. Plus hes an all-round nice guy.

So dont take what hes saying lightly. Hes excellent at this game.

Some of the topics to take note of are-

Starting strategies
- Rookie/Gun vs Midpriced.
- Value picks.

Rolling averages
Trading

Study it well. The advice is golden.

And there will be a test afterwards...

Morning all! Ive got round 5 up and about.

Boy oh boy, the contraversy of Hille AND Boomer all in one week. wow.

Annoyingly, my code will be "incorrectly" counting those Zeros as games counted towards salary... so unless VS say something, dont trust my predictions on those two guys until Ive done an update.

Im sure that a lot of people must be hurting in the Rucks now. Simmo, Ottens and now Hille. Seriously, next year Im just going to go with Cox and the cheap ruck that everyone else jumps on... It just keeps working and I keep expecting it not to!

Ablett put out another outstanding effort as captain. So Im averaging 159 for my captain this year... (Thats gotta be a record right? )

And the highlight scores revolve around SEVEN 170 scores!

A huge game to Lenny taking the prize as best of the round.
(Though Neon took out the DreamTeam prize... :S)

Not that there... yanno, *are* prizes for that at all...

So, how did we all fair? Outraged at ZeroGate? i know I am!! Damn code change! It took ages to get that zero handling working preperly!