TooSerious

How your boys going? Is anyone else out there silly enough to go for Cloke or Thomas instead of Leon, like me. What about Beams, 2 week injury and will only be $231,448 after this round and without a big score from the little fella yet, Im was expecting that to go way higher. The kid is definitely capable of a couple of 100s this year! Maybe this is a chance for Sidebottom?

Dont you just love Thursdays.  The teams come out, the chance to see if your young gun is in this week from the reserves/VFL (he isnt), to see if the culprit for last weeks inexplicable loss is gone (he isnt).

Its also the day that generally our "friends" at News Limited bring out the Supercoach PDF.  Generally pretty obvious info up the top, and some relatively decent stats at the bottom.   This weeks is at the following link if you havent indulged yet: <a href="http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf">http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf[/url]

One of the less noted columns, or probably totally misunderstood is the PER - Price earning ratio, derived by dividing current value by current average.   Keeping things simple for the fans, I will state it simply.   If the PER for a player is $5000 or more, the player is overvalued and likely over the next few weeks to come down.   If the PER is less than $5000 he has more value climbing to do.

Of course its nowhere near as precise as Walesy and the TooSerious breakevens.  But it does help you with trends.  Trends in particular like "has my player maxed out"?

Taylor Walker, $4261, maybe very close.

Jared Petrenko $3921, no

Andy Otten, $3484, no

Daniel Rich, $3817, no

 Dayne Beams, $2939, hell no

and so on...you can do the reading yourselves.

 

Whats also interesting is finding the blue chippers who are $5000 and over.   These are guys who could just be value in the future - a bad/avg round now and they could easy drop.   Or their average doesnt justify their current high price...and hence if they keep the average for a few rounds, their price will go down.

Check them out with their next few rounds in TS Main Page.   Effectively this is playing the futures market, so its NOT for this week.   But keep your eyes open because they are overvalued.  Dont trade IN this week, that could be a bad move.

Marshmallow Thompson...

And to a lesser degree, Palmer and Richoman.

Oh, the pain of this week! But were here to help... or perhaps Lucas is here to help? Im going to replicate his Harvey advice in a new post as I think its beautiful.

<blockquote>Assuming no cash in the bank
For Harvey (M) - I see Gibbs as the perfect midfield trade. K Cornes or Power are other not so bad options, Power the better.
For Harvey (F) - ROK, Buddylove, Lids, J Brown, B Johnson - all reasonable options.

I think Harvey (M) deserves a trade straight away, Harvey (F) Id keep on the bench if I had cover because another week and the forwards scores of most of those listed will come down.

On the future midfield trades, players like Judd (high BE this week) and Cooney (a few weeks after returning he will get back to good 90s scores and be valued at 400). At the very low end (cash cow etc) you have players like Collins (not sure) and Coughlan (could be worth thinking about if hes back to what we know hes capable of and if youre not risk-averse).

For Hille, well youre like me, youre screwed! Waiting with cover is the best option, then you will probably be able to do a straight trade (or with <50k) into Sandilands/Kreuzer/Petrie etc. Whoever takes your fancy really.</blockquote>

With cash, Im going to re-tract what I said last week (and curse him too perhaps?) But Roo is in blistering form. Heck, the Saints are in blistering form. Anything they touch turns to gold- and like Geelong in 07, not jumping on board was game ending...

Hille on the other hand... man, Im screwed!

Alright, not really Fantasy football related, more poker related...

But I thought I would give it a little plug.

<blockquote>$100 Freeroll

Date

Wednesday 29th April, 8PM

Prize

This tournament is a freeroll with $100 in prize money.

No entry fee!

Details
<a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=570925">Click here[/url]

The <a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/">Big Footy[/url] poker leagues were a lot of fun. (especially when you end up in the money!)

One thing though, as part of the process, youll need to sign up to PokerPremiers, so give us a little referal love <a href="http://www.pokerpremiers.com/ref-7624">[here][/url]</blockquote>



<a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/">Big Footy[/url] ran these games weekly throughout the season last year. I image theyll do the same this year.

Hope to see you in there!

Showing my chronic lack of time at the moment, my first Supercoach lesson is going to be an <a href="http://dreamteamlord.podbean.com/2009/04/27/dtrml-pre-round-6/">interview[/url].

By someone else.

Of a Dreamteam specialist...



But! The concepts are very similar and translate fairly well to Supercoach.

Its done by those folks over at <a href="http://dreamteamlord.podbean.com/">DreamTeam ruined my life[/url] (watch the swearing... ), and is an interview of legendary Dreamteamer- Skankdanker.

As one of <a href="http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/">BigFootys[/url] "No-Passangers", hes put together consistant high-ratings for a number of years. Plus hes an all-round nice guy.

So dont take what hes saying lightly. Hes excellent at this game.

Some of the topics to take note of are-

Starting strategies
- Rookie/Gun vs Midpriced.
- Value picks.

Rolling averages
Trading

Study it well. The advice is golden.

And there will be a test afterwards...

Morning all! Ive got round 5 up and about.

Boy oh boy, the contraversy of Hille AND Boomer all in one week. wow.

Annoyingly, my code will be "incorrectly" counting those Zeros as games counted towards salary... so unless VS say something, dont trust my predictions on those two guys until Ive done an update.

Im sure that a lot of people must be hurting in the Rucks now. Simmo, Ottens and now Hille. Seriously, next year Im just going to go with Cox and the cheap ruck that everyone else jumps on... It just keeps working and I keep expecting it not to!

Ablett put out another outstanding effort as captain. So Im averaging 159 for my captain this year... (Thats gotta be a record right? )

And the highlight scores revolve around SEVEN 170 scores!

A huge game to Lenny taking the prize as best of the round.
(Though Neon took out the DreamTeam prize... :S)

Not that there... yanno, *are* prizes for that at all...

So, how did we all fair? Outraged at ZeroGate? i know I am!! Damn code change! It took ages to get that zero handling working preperly!

Boy, did I make a bad call on Roo! Whoda thunk they would have smashed port that much!

Ah well, a 280 from Ablett and Ill be looking alright!

How are you all going this fine Anzac weekend.
(Oh, and can I just have a quick little rant- No public holiday on Monday? Thats Un-Australian!)

The <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=366">Too Serious- Fantasy Football Best and Fairest[/url] deadline is fast approaching.

In fact, its tomorrow- at lockout oclock.

So youre going to want to get in now if you want a shot at that $500. - And believe me, for your investment, youll be looking at a better than 1 in 50 shot.

So get in here peoples! Who will win take out Fantasy Footballs Best and Fairest, on Fantasy Footballs night of nights?

And more importantly, what should this prize be called?

I for one am leaning towards the Buckley. Named in recognition to services rendered towards the comp- But hey, Im open to suggestions.

306k and a 3 week injury that could be longer. Both the dollars to play with and the injury itself are difficult to deal with.

But, thats what were here for.

So, what to do?

It depends a lot on your cash situation. Those who traded Raines down in the past, might just have found their silver lining...

Ill deal with Skippy the forward first.

If you can afford it...
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And you feel you *must* trade this week- BOOM!er.

With upcoming games against Richmond and collingwood, things might be looking up for the little guy.
Though those first few rounds are concerning... But surely 520k is too good to pass up on!

If however, youve got bench coverage and are willing to wait a week, then a world of possibility opens up.

Three high end players are hemmoraging. And it will only take one good game to stop that. Namely,

Deledio (A decent game will see him priced at roughly 480k)
Franklin (470k)
OKeefe (480k) - With games against Fremantle, Richmond and WCE over the next 4 rounds... might just be a goer this round...

Once we limit your salary to 300k however, things get uglier. In fact, it would be poor form on my part to suggest trading down to anyone at this point in time.
(Particularly if youve got coverage!).
To the desperate though. Rumour has always had it that Sidebottom would be debuted on Anzac day... perhaps?
Maybe Nahas? or Wade? - But then, theyre are both ugly UGLY options.

So there you have it. All in all, if you cant get an underperforming gun. Dont move him out yet.

Next up- Skippy the Mid.

While not many people would have gone this way, the few that did would be slightly relieved (My DreamTeam team says hi!)

Coverage with the Mid rookies are a lot tastier than the forwards with Beams, Rich, Otten, Dangerguy and to a lesser extend, Robinson running around.

So the emphasis for MUST TRADE NOW! would be lower.

That said, if you must trade now(TM), then here we go.

Boomer Harvey - - Dont do...

Following on from the discussion in the previous threads, I thought it would be a good idea to see exactly how much of the pie each team gets, and if it relates to the real ladder position.<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-397" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/scladder.jpg" alt="scladder" width="718" height="328" />

From this table we can see that only one side is in the top 8 of the SuperCoach points isnt in the top 8 of the real ladder (North Melbourne), and likewise Sydney is the only one that is in the 8 in real life but not in Supercoach. I think this is an incredibly good result, and may start using this in my footy tipping! West Coast is the biggest anomaly, however there massive thumping by the Saints may mean this is inaccurate.

In SuperCoach terms, there are a few things you can draw from this. One is never pick Freo players, as they are clearly the worst side in Supercoach. The other is feel free to stack your side with players from Geelong, Port, St Kilda, Carlton and the Bulldogs, as they have more than enough points to share. It will be interesting to see the Hawks points after they start winning some games though. Im no statistician, so maybe someone else can pull some more information out of this.

Hope this will start some discussion!