TooSerious

Well last week was a bit rubbish … unless you follow our betting and took the value betting options on St Kilda and Brisbane … in which case you’re welcome! Last week our model predicted the closest round of the season (it didn’t turn out to be the case but there was still some good footy) and this week is the exact opposite with our model predicting the most one-sided round of the season. Check out our tips and confidence levels over the page.

Boom. Teams.

GEELONG v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Friday 29 July at Simonds Stadium (7.50pm)

CATS

B: J.Kolodjashnij, T.Lonergan, C.Enright

HB: J.Bews, H.Taylor, T.Ruggles

C: A.Mackie, J.Selwood, M.Duncan

HF: N.Cockatoo, Z.Smith, L.McCarthy

F: J.Bartel, T.Hawkins, D.Menzel

R: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield, C.Guthrie

I/C: M.Blicavs, J.Cowan, S.Menegola, S.Motlop

EMG: J.Caddy, S.Kersten, D.Lang

IN: Z.Smith

OUT: S.Kersten (Omitted)

DOGS

B: J.Adcock, F.Roberts, E.Wood

HB: J.Johannisen, J.Hamling, S.Biggs

C: L.Hunter, M.Bontempelli, L.Picken

HF: L.Jong, J.Stringer, C.Smith

F: T.Dickson, T.Boyd, L.Dahlhaus

R: J.Roughead, J.Macrae, T.Liberatore

I/C: Z.Cordy, J.Dunkley, K.Stevens, C.Daniel

EMG: L.Webb, M.Honeychurch, B.Dale

IN: J.Adcock, L.Dahlhaus, J.Stringer, J.Hamling, Z.Cordy

OUT: M.Boyd (Achilles), D.Morris (Hamstring), M.Suckling (Achilles), M.Wallis (Leg), J.Redpath (Knee)

GWS GIANTS v RICHMOND

Saturday 30 July at Manuka Oval (1.45pm)

GIANTS

B: J.Patfull, P.Davis, Z.Williams

HB: H.Shaw, N.Haynes, J.Kelly

C: T.Greene, C.Ward, N.Wilson

HF: R.Lobb, J.Patton, S.Johnson

F: T.Scully, J.Cameron, A.Tomlinson

R: S.Mumford, S.Coniglio, D.Shiel

I/C: S.Reid, D.Smith, H.Himmelberg, R.Griffen

EMG: M.Kennedy, J.Stewart, A.Kennedy

IN: R.Griffen

OUT: A.Kennedy (Omitted)

TIGERS

B: D.Astbury, A.Rance, D.Grimes

HB: J.Short, T.Hunt, B.Ellis

C: D.Rioli, T.Cotchin, A.Miles

HF: D.Martin, S.Lloyd, T.Vickery

F: K.Lambert, J.Riewoldt, A.Marcon

R: S.Hampson, N.Vlastuin, R.Conca

I/C: S.Grigg, O.Markov, N.Drummond, B.Houli

EMG: A.Moore, N.Broad, J.Castagna

IN: B.Houli, T.Vickery, K.Lambert, A.Marcon

OUT: S.Edwards (Calf), B.Griffiths (Groin), L.McBean (Omitted), J.Castagna (Omitted)

HAWTHORN v CARLTON

Saturday 30 July at Aurora Stadium (2.10pm)

HAWKS

B: T.Duryea, J.Frawley, B.Stratton

HB: L.Hodge, J.Gibson, G.Birchall

C: I.Smith, S.Mitchell, B.Hill

HF: L.Breust, J.Gunston, B.Whitecross

F: J.Sicily,...

Courtesy of @snoz

HOPPERS 1336 defeat WAIKIKAOOCOW 1001

We win, we win, we win………I mean, the Hoppers win (this is an unbiased review of course) in resounding

fashion against their North Island ally. Fat Rocky again was in huge form (154) for the Hoppers, with the whole

midfield stepping up: Adams 100, Cripps 137 & Neale 109. Throw in a lazy 109 by big man Brodie Grundy & the Hops

potentially have their highest score for the season. For the Moo Cows, not sure if the Choirboys pregame entertainment

had them holding their ears throughout the game, but both McVeigh & Howe in defense failed to run out for the start

leaving them two men down. Throw in stinkers by Titch 81 & Hanners 76 – not to mention Griffiths 40 & Paps 38 & the

moo cows were udderless. Only three time knee reco man, Menzel 120, turned up to play. The Hoppers remain in 15th

place and going nowhere, but the Cows have a struggle on their hands, locked in on 32 pts with 5 other teams vying

for finals.

WHITSUNDAY 1208 defeat the NUFFERS 1123

In a battle of middling cellar dwellers, the Warriors pulled out an 85 pt win over the Nuffers – but most likely

only because the Nuffs were munching on two donuts. The Warriors were led by old man Birch 106, while Boak 101 & surprise

high MSD pick Sam Gray 105 were really the only two standouts. The Nuffs were weakened by two non-starters in the middle,

with only McKenzie available on the bench (48) – and once again, Charlie “I have all the talent in the world but I’m made of balsa wood’

Dixon was a non-starter. If not for Kade Simpson 125, Taylor Hunt 111 & JPK 127 this could’ve got ugly.

Both teams languish in 13th & 14th position on the ladder and will be setting their sights on 2017 for a rebound season.

GUIM 1342 defeat the UGLIES 1322

An absolute cracker of a game, with the Guim just getting over the line by 20 pts in a squeaker that has both teams

primed for a finals run. Chris’s mob have now won...

With only 16 teams, TooSerious's newest ORFF league - the ORFFF - is heading into the first week of their first finals series this week, and with 4 weeks available, will be working with the same finals system as the AFL.

@tyze1 and his Rutherglen Fugitives will be rueing several early season close losses to teams that finished much lower than him, as they have just missed the 8, finishing in 9th spot and earning the chance to host the ORFFF Representative match during the week after the grand final (AFL Round 23).

On the other side of the ledger is @ViQBoZ and his Mole Creek Glow-worms who have snuck into the 8, despite having the 2nd worst total points scored in the league!

Well done to all 8 teams who have made the finals.

Read on for a look at the upcoming matches:

Firstly, I would like to thank @TheTassieHawk for helping me with this by searching for "the last time they met" stats and recent form etc and compiling them for me. good work mate, helped a lot and made for a better article.

Week 1 ORFFF Finals Fixture (AFL Round 19) - as always first named is the home side

*****
Drouin Dropbears (1st, 14-1, 1371 ppg regular season average) vs Chinchilla Chumps (4th, 10-5, 1286)
--- Recent form (last 5) - Drouin – WWWWW (5-0, average 1393ppg), Chinchilla – LLWWL (2-3, average 1212ppg)

Last time they played (2016, Round 7) – Drouin 1333 defeated Chinchilla 1243 (90 points)

http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/orfff-2016-round-7.89450/
http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagueMatchday.php?leagueId=14&round=7

Round 7 Brownlow votes and other tons

Drouin : Dangerfield 129 (4 votes), Docherty 120 (2 votes), Pittard 110, Mumford 108, Scully 106
Chinchilla : Montagna 130 (5 votes), JPK 125 (3 votes), Zorko 111 (1 vote), NicNat 101, Caddy 100

Drouin have been close to unstoppable all season, but with Mummy under an injury...

Hmmm, Heath Shaw certainly didn’t raise the bar did he, in fact this week’s pick will need to limbo to get underneath that one...

Only a few more rounds to go to pick some more SC gold, so read on for more Best Buys and our BoTW.

Sorry peeps, been out and about all day, only just got in.

Big week for #1 and #2, so its good to see that buzz didn't fall too far off the pace.

Will get the stats up when I can, in the mean time, how'd you all go?

TipBetPro have stormed into the top 10,000 tipsters in the country (8,476th) following 8 from 9 correct in Round 17 including upset winners Hawthorn and St Kilda. Another couple of huge games this week with the Pies vs Roos, Cats vs Crows and Power vs Giants standing out as cracking matches that are tough to tip. This week we’ve also taken a look at which teams are the punters friends, i.e. which teams have been the most profitable to bet on in season 2016 and which teams you love to punt against. Turn over for our Round 18 Tips and punters friend breakdown.

ROUND 18 TEAMS (ALL TIMES AEST)
we hope you avoided this week's selection carnage
UPDATED for JAKE NEADE BEING A LATE OUT AND SUNDAY FINAL 22 PLAYER TEAMS

COLLINGWOOD V NORTH MELBOURNE
Friday July 22, 7.50pm at Etihad Stadium

MAGPIES
B: J.Marsh, N.Brown, J.Howe
HB: T.Adams, B.Reid, B.Sinclair
C: S.Sidebottom, A.Treloar, J.Aish
HF: A.Fasolo, T.Cloke, T.Varcoe
F: D.Moore, J.White, J.Blair
R: B.Grundy, S.Pendlebury, J.Crisp
I/C: L.Greenwood, M.Williams, B.Maynard, J.Smith
EMG: J.De Goey, T.Goldsack, M.Cox

IN: A.Fasolo, M.Williams
OUT: B.Macaffer, J.De Goey

KANGAROOS
B: S.Thompson, M.Firrito, S.Atley
HB: B.McKenzie, R.Tarrant, J.Macmillan
C: S.Gibson, D.Wells, N.Dal Santo
HF: J.Anderson, B.Brown, J.Ziebell
F: L.Thomas, D.Petrie, B.Harvey
R: T.Goldstein, B.Cunnington, A.Swallow
I/C: R.Clarke, T.Dumont, A.Mullett, M.Daw
EMG: E.Vickers-Willis, J.Tippett, C.Wagner

IN: M.Daw, T.Dumont
OUT: J.Waite, C.Wagner

SYDNEY SWANS V CARLTON
Saturday July 23, 1.45pm at the SCG

SWANS
B: D.Rampe, A.Aliir, N.Smith
HB: J.Lloyd, H.Grundy, C.Mills
C: D.Hannebery, J.Kennedy, K.Jack
HF: D.Towers, L.Franklin, G.Hewett
F: I.Heeney, G.Rohan, T.Papley
R: S.Naismith, L.Parker, T.Mitchell
I/C: H.Cunningham, J.Foote, X.Richards, C.Sinclair
EMG: B.Jack, T.Leonardis, T.Nankervis

IN: H.Cunningham, X.Richards, J.Foote, I.Heeney
OUT: T.Richards, B.McGlynn, J.McVeigh, Z.Jones

BLUES
B: Z.Tuohy, S.Rowe, K.Simpson
HB: D.Buckley, L.Plowman, S.Docherty
C: D.Armfield, P.Cripps, E.Curnow
HF: S.Kerridge, S.White, J.Silvagni
F: M.Wright, L.Casboult, C.Curnow
R: M.Kreuzer, B.Gibbs, N.Graham
I/C: A.Phillips, J.Weitering, L.Sumner, B.Boekhorst
EMG: J.Lamb, M.Whiley, K.Jaksch

IN: L.Casboult, B.Boekhorst
OUT: J.Lamb, K.Jaksch

GOLD COAST SUNS V FREMANTLE
Saturday July 23, 2.10pm at Metricon Stadium

SUNS
B: N.Malceski, S.May, K.Kolodjashnij
HB: J.Harbrow, R.Thompson, A.Sexton
C: J.Schoenfeld, J.Lonergan, M.Shaw
HF: B.Matera,...

MITCHELL!!! Okay it’s not 150, but 120 is pretty damn good compared to recent Buys of the Week.

Thank god those Thursday night games are over, well except for the potential of a Thursday night final. Not a fan of those at all - SC, tipping, betting, Best Buys - just threw my week into chaos.

Only a few more rounds to go before finals – but that time has not come yet, so read on for more Best Buys and our BoTW.

An intriguing round of ORFFA action has seen the race for the final eight tighten considerably. Meanwhile, two games with direct relevance to domestic bliss – or otherwise - were decided.

Mt Beauty 1402 d Gundagai 1227

A stunning game from Dustin Martin helped guide Mt Beauty to win number 10 for season 2015, and saw the Uglies consolidate their position in the top 4.

Martin’s 155 led four other centurions for coach Bama, with Gawn, Cotchin, Rioli and Viney all tonning up. Ultimately, Mt Beauty’s across the field consistency proved the difference, with all bar two players scoring 70 or more.

Gundagai have clearly improved, with Rocky, Cripps, Grundy and Adams all topping 100. However the Hoppers’ backline still remains a work in progress, despite some savvy recent drafting in the area.

Foul Bay 1240 d Nunawading 1053

Foul Bay’s Dangerwood show rolls on, with the Geelong pair combining for nearly 270 points in a comfortable win over the Nuffers.

The Chickens remain atop the ladder, though their depth is being severely tested – something which will continue to occur with another injury (Gwilt) over the weekend. Bernie Vince’s 118 was welcome, as was a timely 83 in defence from Shane Biggs.

For Nunawading, some great defensive scoring from Simpson, Wood, Hunt, and Broadbent was not matched across the field.

JPK’s 140 was the only other century apart from Kade Simpson (115). The lack of a ruckman and a disappointing forwardline put paid to any chances of an upset.

Waikikamoocow 1270 d Wagga Wagga 1174

In a match-up with major finals ramifications, the ‘Cows stormed into sixth position with a narrow win over Wagga Wagga.

A standout game from the helmeted high-flyer Ben Griffiths helped Waikikamoocow over the line. His 132 up forward was accompanied by good performances from Mitchell (116), Crouch (112), Jacobs (110) and McGovern (105).

Wagga will be ruing a misfiring defence, with four sub-70 point scores...