TooSerious

Four rounds into the AFL season and we are starting to get a good idea of the break-out players of 2016 – turn over for a discussion of the 2016 breakout stars. Of course we will also have TipBetPro Round 5 tips … which followers from last week will know secured a reasonable 6 from 9 correct tips and a spectacular 6 from 6 winning bets in Round 4.

Read over for more...

Big week coming up, with some hard calls to make.

Lets hope the teams are kind and that Ablett is playing.

IN: Gibson, Hewett, Sinclair, Priddis, Currie, Rockliff, McCarthy, Hooper*, Tucker*, Petracca*, Cox*, Grimley*
OUT: Milera, Johannisen, Polec, Oliver

*extended interchange

Full teams over the break

Did I say Ablett would get 150+, well I did warn you that I know no more than the average SCer.
He didn’t do that bad, but I wanted more.

Nevertheless we’re back again with another edition of Best Buys. I’ve tried to add commentary where I can, but will need some of the experts (or anyone really) out there to fill in the blanks in the comment section.

I’ve also added a small list of “wait a week” options – mainly rookies this week, but that may change in the future.

Read over for our Best Buys this week…

Review thanks to @Lenny120

Lenny120's review

Whitsunday (1301) defeated Gundagai (1121)

A comfortable win for the Warriors who are now sitting nicely in the top four. Suckling (122) was prolific with ball in hand and was well supported by Boak (103) and Birchall (102). A consistent effort across the board also saw six other players score 90+. However, their backline depth will be tested next week with in-form Jason Johannisen expected out for an extended period with a hamstring. As for the Hoppers, this was their lowest score for the season in a minor setback; however plenty of kids are still showing signs of improvement albeit a lack of consistency. Neale (120) and Billings (102) were the best performers.

Waikikamoocow (1161) defeated by Darraweit Guim (1320)

Darraweit got their season off and running, cruising to victory by 159 points. Star defender Rance (146) led the way with Coniglio (126), Armitage (105) and Tyson (103) cleaning up in the midfield in the Guim’s best score for the season. They will be looking to push into the top eight in the coming weeks, however will have to do so without Steven May for at least four weeks after his big hit on Stef Martin. The Incorrigibles simply had too many passengers and are now 2-2 to start the season. Big outings from Fyfe (141) and Hannebery (129) with support from Hall (114) and Harry Taylor (104) wasn’t enough for the Cows who had six scores under 70 including a donut.

Nunawading (1099) defeated Wineglass Bay (945)

The Nuffers also got off the mark, easily seeing off the Packers in a low scoring affair. Solid performances from Kade Simpson (101) and Naitanui (100) helped outclass their undermanned opponents. Despite the win, the Nuffers will need more out of Dixon (29) and Varcoe (43) if they are to push for the top eight in the coming weeks. For the Packers, three donuts didn’t help their cause and they failed to make it a contest. However, Sloane (137) looks to...

Disappointing round this one, gunna be lucky to crack the 2k!

Looking around the traps though, that's looking pretty par.

Sub-standard captains, combined with some craply rookies have hit a lot of us.

That said, if you've gone with Yeo, Mitchell, Greene, Zaha- you'll be smiling right now.

How have you all gone?

So, Houli and Rance can't both go large. Reckon it's worth bringing both in?

What else have you noticed from this round?

The TipBetPro model got 8 last week (and it was our lowest confidence pick, Collingwood, that went down so we were happy with the model last week). This was an improvement on the week before – and experience tells us the model typically gets better during the season as the stats roll in.
Of course this week’s full write ups can be found here http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5

So along with our tips, we are also answering that age old question – does experience matter?
We take a look at the stars of the game (and the duds) by experience level – of course experience makes you better at handling the ball, but how much experience? And are there any studs with little experience or just duds?

Over the break you won’t just get the tip, you’ll the stats, the article and maybe even more puns…

Teams over the break

So we’ve done our NRL tips for the week (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and figured “why not start up a Best Buys section?”.

I’d like to take this opportunity to point out this will NOT be as good as previous Best Buys, as I’m a lot better with stats and excel than knowing which rookie has job security, but hopefully it gets the conversation going and a people out there can fill in the blanks.

Read over for our Best Buys this week…

Some of the popular (and not so popular) SC picks are stinking it up losing $20k or more after Round 3 and looking at huge price drops if they don't find form in the next few weeks. When we don't have these players we can happily grab the popcorn and watch as their price plummets and look for value as a fallen premium later on in the season when their form takes a turn for the good.

But when we do have them it becomes a worry. 3 quiet games at any time during the season is frustrating but at the start of the season super coaches start to panic.

One of the golden rules of Supercoach is not to sideways trade your premiums, as most times they will come good (when I compared back to the same article form last year the average full season increased was around 11ppg, with a maximum around 23ppg). However, there are exceptions for every rule, and if injuries have been kind or you have been successful in the past using an aggressive trade strategy you should definitely consider using an early trade to correct a mistake in your team, particularly as the "Golden Rule" was created when we had 24 trades only and I feel 30 trades means gives you more freedom to act in the first 3-4 rounds.

This isn't an article to discuss who to trade IN, that's covered over in the Best Buys
http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/best-buys-round-4.89405

PART 1 - PREMIUMS
The following are some of the most SC relevant (total ownership >3%) underperforming premium players (dropping $20K or more to date) and the objective of Part One of this blog is to discuss whether to hold and hope or to pull the lever and trade them out before your SC season follows them down the gurgler.

I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer, but hope to start debate about players you may be looking to rid yourself of, or hear and read that others are about to rage trade out. Have your say either way.

Defenders

Heath Shaw -...