TooSerious

So, Houli and Rance can't both go large. Reckon it's worth bringing both in?

What else have you noticed from this round?

The TipBetPro model got 8 last week (and it was our lowest confidence pick, Collingwood, that went down so we were happy with the model last week). This was an improvement on the week before – and experience tells us the model typically gets better during the season as the stats roll in.
Of course this week’s full write ups can be found here http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5

So along with our tips, we are also answering that age old question – does experience matter?
We take a look at the stars of the game (and the duds) by experience level – of course experience makes you better at handling the ball, but how much experience? And are there any studs with little experience or just duds?

Over the break you won’t just get the tip, you’ll the stats, the article and maybe even more puns…

Teams over the break

So we’ve done our NRL tips for the week (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and figured “why not start up a Best Buys section?”.

I’d like to take this opportunity to point out this will NOT be as good as previous Best Buys, as I’m a lot better with stats and excel than knowing which rookie has job security, but hopefully it gets the conversation going and a people out there can fill in the blanks.

Read over for our Best Buys this week…

Some of the popular (and not so popular) SC picks are stinking it up losing $20k or more after Round 3 and looking at huge price drops if they don't find form in the next few weeks. When we don't have these players we can happily grab the popcorn and watch as their price plummets and look for value as a fallen premium later on in the season when their form takes a turn for the good.

But when we do have them it becomes a worry. 3 quiet games at any time during the season is frustrating but at the start of the season super coaches start to panic.

One of the golden rules of Supercoach is not to sideways trade your premiums, as most times they will come good (when I compared back to the same article form last year the average full season increased was around 11ppg, with a maximum around 23ppg). However, there are exceptions for every rule, and if injuries have been kind or you have been successful in the past using an aggressive trade strategy you should definitely consider using an early trade to correct a mistake in your team, particularly as the "Golden Rule" was created when we had 24 trades only and I feel 30 trades means gives you more freedom to act in the first 3-4 rounds.

This isn't an article to discuss who to trade IN, that's covered over in the Best Buys
http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/best-buys-round-4.89405

PART 1 - PREMIUMS
The following are some of the most SC relevant (total ownership >3%) underperforming premium players (dropping $20K or more to date) and the objective of Part One of this blog is to discuss whether to hold and hope or to pull the lever and trade them out before your SC season follows them down the gurgler.

I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer, but hope to start debate about players you may be looking to rid yourself of, or hear and read that others are about to rage trade out. Have your say either way.

Defenders

Heath Shaw -...

Brought to you by the Talent(ed) Movements of sNoZ

Round Three – The POTI Round (Prap Out, Tracey In)…….

Foul Bay 1631 defeated Marble Bar 1056

SPLAT…….road kill……as the Chickens roll over the Misfits by a staggering 575 pts!

To be renamed the Flatfits, Marble Bar may as well have stayed home this weekend

as the Chickens had an average score of 108 pts per player in this lopsided affair.

Led by Heath Shaw in defense (129), Paddy & Joel in the guts (166 & 142) and a lively

154 from Dahlinghouse – last year’s regular season ladder leaders are back at it again

sitting on top of the ladder at 3-0. Marble Bar’s squad included: Fantasia (87) in defense &

Phillips (46) in the ruck (cough*cough) with only Captain Ward (109), Whitfield (104) and mighty

mouse Caleb Daniel (107) bothering to show up. Sitting in 14th spot on the ladder at 1-2….could be a

long season for this motley crew.

Larrikin Lagoon 1317 defeated Nunawading 1086

Last year’s premiers are back at it again with another strong showing against the Nuffers,

winning by 231 points to be at 3-0 and sitting 2nd on the ladder. No longer hiding in the shadows after last seasons

8th spot to Premiership glory, the Lefties were led by some stand out players – none more than

Goldilocks in the ruck (172), old man Montagna in the forward line (150) and Goddard (125) & Priddis (117)

in the guts. The Nuffers tried hard, but it was left to too few: JPK (124), NicNat in the ruck scoring a great

114, Charlie balsa-wood Dixon (100) up front and Broadbent (111) holding the defense together.

Struggles a plenty me thinks as the Nuffers sit in 17th spot on the ladder at 0-3.

Birdsville 1308 defeated Darraweit Guim 1267

Continuing on from an impressive 2015 season, the Battlers held on to win by only 41 points

in this slog and remain undefeated for the season, sitting 3rd on the ladder. Solid lines at

every level, Bachar Houli (144) and old man Enright (118) held...

So,

Who has Goldie and Gawn?

What about Weitering?

Trapley?

Lets see some scores as you know em!

A couple of outs, a couple of rookie ins. Not too many curveballs.

Outs: Rockliff, Wingard, Gresham, Marchbank, Ah Chee
Ins: Rioli, Byrne, Ruggles

Teams over the break.

Wow – what a week Round 2 was! Four correct tips didn’t seem like a great result, but given only three favourites won, the TipBetPro crew weren’t too unhappy with that result. I think this summarises fairly well how tricky tipping has been over the first two rounds:
Essendon Beats Melbourne, Melbourne Beats GWS, GWS Beats Geelong, Geelong Beats Hawthorn
So therefore Essendon is better than Hawthorn...

Notwithstanding that, the TipBetPro model should theoretically get more accurate as more current season data is added and following the inclusion of player ranking updates from Round 2, the Round 3 tips are as follows:
Port Adelaide to beat Essendon
Collingwood to beat St Kilda
Adelaide to beat Richmond
Sydney to beat GWS
West Coast to beat Fremantle
Gold Coast to beat Carlton
North Melbourne to beat Melbourne
Hawthorn to beat Western Bulldogs
Geelong to beat Brisbane

Full game write ups, and bet recommendations up can be found at:
http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5
And read over for more info on margins, tip confidences and an in-depth look at a summary by team of the TipBetPro rated elite players in the AFL.

Righteo, in the absence of BB, we have the thumbs.

Or the 1-2-3-4-5 votes.

Or both!

Or tea leaves.

Either way we do it, we all have decisions to make.

And if you're like most of us, it's all about Rocky and Barlow.

And Papley.