TooSerious

From a hindsight perspective the 3 bye-round have to be treated as a block, as running it before the completion of all 3 rounds will be meaningless. As such there was no Hindsight SC round 8 last week and there will be no Hindsight SC round 9 this week, but next week will be a big one covering all 3 bye rounds.
Some of you have envisioned ginormous matrices, some have even tried brute force calculations in the past and some have just expressed an interest in how 'the math' actually works. I'll lift the veil a bit ...
Statistics
First of all, the statistics. Without them the math is just a theoretical excercise and initially this looked liked the biggest roadblock. Luckily walesy came through with the goods and now I collect them on a weekly basis from the TooSerious website. I'm only collecting the weekly salaries and scores of the players (having already done the once-off setup of the full list of players and their positions including dual position players); all other stats are interesting but of no use for Hindsight SC.
Knapsack
As mentioned in my round 2 post, in essence of the whole game of SuperCoach is a traditional knapsack problem, i.e. 'given a set of items, each with a mass and a value, determine the items to include in a collection so that the total weight is less than or equal to a given limit and the total value is as large as possible':
<ul style='margin-left: 40px;]
<li>Items = Players</li>
<li>Mass = Salary</li>
<li>Value = Score</li>
<li>Limit = Salary Cap</li>
</ul>
This gives the following basic model:
<p style='margin-left: 40px;]MAX SUM over [Players] of [Selected Player] * [Player Score]
<p style='margin-left: 40px;]SUBJECT TO
<ul style='margin-left: 80px;]
<li>SUM over [Players] of [Selected Player] * [Player Salary] &amp;lt;= [Salary Cap]</li>
<li>[Selected Player] in {0,1}</li>
</ul>
Knapsack - SuperCoach style
... with quite a few added complications that are the specific...

<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]With an unbelievable 184 SC points, Ablett led the charge in Round 10. He picked up 37 touches and 4 goals and was dominant in the first half scoring 133 SC points (before slowing&amp;rdquo; down and only picking up 51 for the rest of the game). Brent Harvey was magnificent against Brisbane with 179 whilst Dangerfield (152) and JP Kennedy (151) broke the 150 barrier. Next best were Sam Gibson with 149, Dal Santo (140), Joel Selwood (140), Jack Steven (131), Stephen Hill (130) and Pendlebury (128).
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]GEELONG v. NORTH MELBOURNE
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]Recent game - Round 19 2013: At Etihad, North Melbourne surprised Geelong with a 10 point victory 96 to 86. Brent Harvey led 7 North Melbourne players who broke the ton with 130 from 37 disposals. Scott Thompson scored 121 whilst Wells was next best with 116. Steve Johnson top scored for Geelong with 106.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]Selwood v....

Finally, the last round of the byes. I gotta say, I'm looking forward to emerging from this whole thing with almost a fully upgraded team.

Will be a good good feeling.

<p style='color: #474747; background-color: #ffffff; margin-bottom: 15px;]GEELONG CATSvNORTH MELBOURNE
<p style='color: #a58f1f; background-color: #ffffff; margin-bottom: 15px;]Friday, May 23 | Simonds Stadium | 7.50pm
<p style='color: #555555; background-color: #ffffff; margin-bottom: 15px;]Geelong:
<p style='color: #555555; background-color: #ffffff; margin-bottom: 15px;]B: Jared Rivers, Tom Lonergan, Corey Enright<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;[/img]
HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Cameron Guthrie<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;[/img]
C: Mark Blicavs, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;[/img]
HF: Travis Varcoe, Hamish McIntosh, Mathew Stokes<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;[/img]
F: Jordan Murdoch, Tom Hawkins, Jimmy Bartel<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;[/img]
R: Dawson Simpson, James Kelly, George Horlin-Smith<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;[/img]
I/C: Jed Bews, Steven Motlop, Jackson Sheringham, Jesse Stringer<br style='margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;...

The byes are almost over now, thankfully, and after a mass of high scores last week saw many teams with a 400+ point differential between the opening two bye rounds for me it can't come soon enough. SuperCoach is always a game of chance, but these bye rounds really seem to magnify that dramatically. This week we look at some of the better options going around the traps in an effort to give tooserious teams a leg-up on the competition, and unfortunately have to look at some 1 game rookies to fill it out. Hartung is the only rookie option on the bubble this week, prior to team announcements anyway, so this week could be the one many coaches take a risk.

Ducky is this week's Best Buy, after avoiding Crowley on the weekend and pumping out a 140 in his first game back after the bye. Looking at his numbers from last season, it was around this time that he really started to hit his stride and average 130+ for the remaining games. On top of that, he's as cheap as you'll likely find him, except for maybe last week, and offers excellent value all round.




DEFENSE
ROOKIES
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Jed Bews (GEE) DEF 123.9k 60
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Bews hasn't made it onto the bubble just yet, having played just the one game last round for 60 points. As always caution is advised when looking at players who haven't played their first 2 games yet, but with no real rookie options to pick from a fair few coaches will be looking to take a punt with a second gamer this week and Bews is the man in defense. Has the potential to be a good player but will struggle to keep a spot in the 22.

MID-PRICERS
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Brodie Smith (ADE) DEF 461.5k 96
Smith continues his rise to fame, now averaging 96 for the season with a healthy price of around 460 grand. With only 4,000 selections for the season so far and a price rise of around 25 grand on the way...

<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]If I offered you 8:1 odds to guess which AFL team took home the most SuperCoach points in 2013 would you take the bet?
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Before reading any further have a guess. Which AFL team scored the most SC points in 2013?
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Seem like easy money right? Surely Hawthorn would be your first guess, they were clearly atop the ladder with only 3 losses going into finals. If not them then surely one of the other top 4 sides Geelong, Freo or Sydney. Well if you guessed any of these you are wrong. In fact if you guessed any of the top 8 you were wrong. The team that scored the most SC points in the 2013 season was North Melbourne.
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Anyone who spends time on TooSerious quickly learns that SuperCoach is a game full of adages and maxims. Whether it's PODs, MPPs, or the scoring potential of KPPs, every day the comments are full of these little titbits of wisdom that we all take for granted.
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]One such bit of wisdom that I've been thinking about recently is the link between a team winning and a team scoring well in SuperCoach.
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]The theory goes that since there is a capped number of points in any match (the 3300 rule), and since SC is heavily weighted towards how a player impacts the final result of the match, it stands to reason that the team who wins should also get the majority of the SC points. Seems simple enough. So why the bloody hell did North (10 wins) get more points than Hawthorn (19 wins) in the 2013 season?

<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p class='western' style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Season trends
<p class='western'...

Urrrg, a 1900 and I've lost all five leagues. Shocking week with Acres, Hooker and Zorko all going ball on me.

Combine that with my Swan trade, it was a sad week. Least I didn't have Rockliff (Like I do in DT!)

How about you guys? This week treat you any better?

<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]In a round where our likely captain targets had a bye, some familiar faces came to the fore to post some big scores. Eleven goals straight to JJ Kennedy netted him a mammoth 183 SC points to lead all scorers. Liberatore continued his dominance over Melbourne with two important goals and 171 SC points. Four other players scored over 150 including Hannebery with 159, Watson with 158, Gibbs with 157, JP Kennedy with 157 and Ryder, who kicked the match winning goal, with 152. Kade Simpson with 145 and Fyfe with 141 were next best.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]ADELAIDE v. COLLINGWOOD
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]Recent game - Round 16 2013: Collingwood scored a comfortable 27 point victory at the MCG last year 111 to 84. Pendlebury gathered 42 touches and 153 SC points. Next best were Ball with 129 and Swan with 125. No other Collingwood player scored over 100. In his first game for the season, Beams collected 25 touches with 88 SC points. Dangerfield spent a lot of time up forward and only managed 15 disposals with 70 SC points.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt; background-color: #fcfcfc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;][span style='color: #444444;]
<p style='margin-bottom:...

Great scores to Danger, Pendles,Beams and the super-rookie Langford while swan disappoints, good luck for the remaining 5 matches !!

<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000;]<strong style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]Lots to cover, especially about the mid-season stuff but first things first, the current ladder as it stands. Once Rd 7 finishes we'll list up a draft order. Of course this can be found in the tsLeagues tab - cheers Walesy!

[/b]
<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000;]<strong style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;][/b]
<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000;][span style='font-size: inherit;]Then, a preview of this round matchups! Will only be brief but all teams are in (yay!) so why not:
<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000;]<strong style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;] [/b]
<p style='background-image: none; background-attachment: scroll; background-color: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat;]<strong style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;...

<div>
This week looks to be a tough one for trading in SuperCoach, with a surprising lack of options all around and the byes taking their toll on many teams already. There are only 4 available forwards averaging over 90 this week for example, and only 2 rookies on the bubble, so some lateral thinking and more than a few risks may well be required.

Thankfully however, the first bye is over. This brings Collingwood, Geelong and Gold Coast players back into contention for the week, and gives us our Best Buy in Dane Swan. Swanny started poorly this year before re-finding form, but then had a bit of a downer again last game. With his bye out of the way now though, and having had a bit of a spell, we're expecting him to come out firing and finish out the year in top form. Priced as cheaply as you're likely to find him and a fantasy superstar, it will take a brave coach to leave him out of their considerations.
<div>







DEFENSE
ROOKIES
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Joel Tippett (NM) DEF 123.9k 41 +21k
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Tippett is one of only two rookies on the bubble this week, and with an average of 41 he isn't incredibly appealing. However with minimal options around and the timing of the byes this year, he could still be worth considering if he can continue to get games. Only looking at a 20 grand rice rise this week however, most coaches wouldn't suffer too much by waiting for next week to see if there are any better options.

MID-PRICERS
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Cale Hooker (ESS) DEF 472.6k 101
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]Hooker continues to excel this season, now averaging 101 at a price of around 470 grand. Still a serious POD, with only 11,000 selections so far, his scoring ability has gone up a level this season and he is amongst the leading defenders at this stage in the year.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0pt;]
<p...