Jason i wrote my post on my phone last night, it's been a bit muddled up, and had the bombers last if you see it, it has the bombers in after i did my Rising star tip very weird
Cats and Dogs the sliders, Lions easily for the spoon. St.Kilda, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Bulldogs, North, Port, Richmond, WC, Adelaide, Essendon, GC, Brisbane. J.Selwood to score lower in SC but still win Brownlow.
This year there will be a few matches that will go against what form should suggest. If you play a team after they have the bye(rested and rearing to go) their will be some upsets. Also Teams that have to travel interstate after the bye will benefit the most(get their early and no fatigue from flying). Now for my Rant on the Bombers...... This year has a lot of uncertainties for non-supporters. Yet for the Faithful we all know these things, New coach = Great things... A list Further ahead then outsiders are giving credit for. If we can replicate the same form that had us beating the Saints last year on a regular basis we will give most teams a run for their money. My tip is Carlton, Sydney, Doggies and the Bombers fighting out for the last 2 spots in the 8. But those Haters tipping wooden spoon are in for a surprise.
<blockquote>Quote from Fez on February 4, 2011, 07:55 Steve, Liquid has the bombers finishing in the finals clearly some bias in there </blockquote> I actually went through and tipped every game of the season and built a ladder from that. I have Bombers, Swans and Demons all finishing on 11 wins so naturally I would put my team on the top of that group. Conveniently, that puts the Bombers in the finals. You can call it bias if you so wish. Regarding Port - unfortunately they are in for a tough year. First time through i only had them winning 2 games so i had to go back and find some 50/50 games and give them a few extra wins. 5 wins max in 2011!
Dan - I'm not hater of the bombers i just dont rate your list will battle the bottom 3 with GC and Brisbane
I think you Bomber supporters are forgetting the fact that you have the worst midfield in the AFL and that is where the game is won these days. Hird and Thompson are not going to be able to get out on the park and kick the ball for you! They will be lucky to win 5 games this year.
I think the only sides that can realistically replace two teams from last years finals are the Demons and kangaroos. Other than that the 8 will probably be similiar bar positional changes.
Not going to bite as it might bite me in the arse later in the year with total recall. But I would prefer to be going into a new season with the optimism the bombers have than the antics that have gone on at other sides. (Sorry Saints Fans). I dont see where this List rater comes from as any Savy Supercoach player would see that there are a few Guys on the Bombers List that could( note I said Could) have breakout years. Midfield's all round will be hampered this year by the loss of one spot on the bench for Rotations. Eg. Collingwood is not going to be able to rotate every 3-5 mins keeping everyone fresh. Is this going to hamper them??? For Pendle's, No, elite Runner. But It might hurt Swan a bit as It was how he kept fresh. Alot of people have been talking about how the Sub will work, and mentioning Rucks or Key Position players as the Sub player. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest that Most teams will keep their Rucks(Yes Plural) and KP Players out on the ground for the majority of game time and use maybe one spot to rotate them. The other 2 spots will be mid rotations from Half Back to CHF, And the Sub will be another Mid to get some extra run. Back to the point sorry to Digress. Might have to start a poll rating Midfield's from each team to discuss their strengths and weaknesses. We all rate the Pies and Geelongs(even minus GAJ) Carltons is quality yet does that equate to wins??? Norths is very exciting with their troop of young-uns. Saints is quality as is the Doggies. But where do the mid-rated teams sit. So is Ports better than Sydney, Or is Melbournes better than Richmond. And Steve ya wanna make a side bet on who finishes higher Port or the Bombers???? 5 games ha.......
It's an interesting thing trying to make predictions. That's why I think a ladder comp is required to put us all to the test. Anyway, here's my pre NAB Cup ladder for end of season, and some thoughts on the teams: 1 Collingwood - Concerned by the press and overall community respect for the club most tipping top 2, but really impressed by the noise from inside the club. Motivation high, injuries the biggest worry. 2 Western Bulldogs - May surprise a few with this positioning, but I see a maturing list, old faithfuls cut, exciting kids. I see a lot of Collingwood 2010 about the new breed, and with injury luck will be right in there. 3 Fremantle - Will get to the prelim this year. Could go further but I see an interrupted preseason for a few. Will be very hard to beat in Perth whoever plays them. 4 Hawthorn - Will win a final this year and march up the ladder for longer. No poor start this year. 5 St Kilda - Probably putting them too low; just wondering what the effect of Dickileaks, losing two GFs will have on them. Collingwood fell apart in 2004 with a few injuries, this team is of sterner stuff, but it shows how quickly things can fall apart. 6 Geelong - Do not underestimate them, but think that they might get found out against the top teams, and passed by a couple in the 2nd week of finals. 7 Adelaide - A genuine chance to go higher, but only on the strength of their younger and maturing players. The cleanout will do them good but was a year late so the improvement won't be as quick. Liked their finish to the year against quality 2010 sides. 8 Melbourne - Dream draw, maturing club, finals is a necessity for Dean Bailey I feel. Four years out of the finals after a complete rebuild is too many. 9 Carlton - Something tells me that even with a decent list something's NQR about Carlton this year off field. Ratten to go either during or just after the season. 10 Sydney - I see them taking a step back to go forward in the longer term. Kids who really stepped up last year will find it hard to go again, they lose the Kirk-Roos factor and their old trojans get a little more worn. Competitive no doubt but Longmire might take longer than expected to get results 11 North - Good young list, will be competitive but like Port a bit light on for stars when it matters. Fresher than Port so that's why they will be slightly higher. 12 Essendon - Will be in the mix for the 8 until late in the year. Hird will make a difference, but there are holes even he can't paper over. Will play very watchable footy under Hird/Thompson. 13 Port - I found it interesting Steve had a crack at the Bomber midfield. Port's is equally poor and they suffer from a lack of star power in crunch matches. I think they need to hit rock bottom to get a few guns to reclaim a spot at footy's top table. Their pride won't let them, but they should tank for a few seasons. 14 WCE - Improvement will be there with a fitter team on the park, but still a way to go. Dangerous at home. 15 Richmond - On the right track but not as many home games as the non Vics so that will put them behind them. 16 Brisbane - Pillaged by GC and hurt by themselves. Will win games but they are in a mix of teams that can finish low down, and they appear to be the worst. 17 GCFC - Too raw, no real need to finish higher, they can get some more good draft picks by just rotating the kids and giving them experience in a midfield with Ablett. On the Brownlow, I see a tie between Pendlebury and Selwood. Both loved by the umps.
On the Brownlow, I would probably add Judd(yes again) Boyd, Watson(bias I know but got the umps attention last year), and for a smokey K.Jack. Reckon your ladder is pretty close Lucas, get the Ladder comp going and I'm in. Its posies 7 to 12 that are up for grabs. Pre-season wont tell us much info as it will be rookie time. We should have a clearer picture by Round 9.
What I am saying is that Port has far more depth in the midfield compared to Essendon. The Bombers really only have Watson and Stanton and not much else. While Port could easily have 10 players rotating through the midfield (Boak, K Cornes, Cassisi, Gray, Hartlett, Rodan and so on) @ Dan, I sent you an email to your home address. Let me know how much cash you want to put into my wallett?
A bit tough on Essendon's midfield depth but I do realise what you're saying about Port. A good honest midfield and defence will win a lot of games. If Butcher comes good a la Dawes they will have great prospects soon. Bombers midfield to me seems a bit like their list, the old and young but nothing in between. The players Dons fans would be looking at Hird making a real impact on are Prismall, McVeigh and Welsh - and to me so much of their output is based on mindset. If they come good, they are a real chance of making the 8, but if they perform as badly as the last few years it will be delist time for them and rebuild for Bombers with Howlett, Melksham, Heppell etc. Bombers midfielders levels: Watson, Stanton Winderlich Hocking, Howlett, Jetta, Melksham Prismall, McVeigh, Welsh, Lonergan, Dempsey, Zaharakis Colyer, Slattery
My ladder prediction is: Pies (Unfortunately) Doggies Dockers Saints Blues Hawks Cats Crows ------ Dees Swans Tigers Roos GC Power Lions Bombers Eagles
One thing I can't believe is that a lot of people dont have Gold Coast in their bottom 2? IMO I can't see them winning anymore than 3 games. They will defintitely not win any games on the road as they will get belted every week. They may sneak a few wins up at Gold Coast stadium but they just don't have the depth at the moment to cover any long term injuries.
Yeah, i'm with Steve on this. Gold Coast may have Gablett but he alone will not be able to lift them off the bottom of the ladder. They have good youth, but still a couple years off making an impact
Steve is right they will get some fearful hammerings. Let's face it basically this team got smashed in the VFL last year. All depends on how seriously McKenna wants to develop players vs win games. I think he will develop knowing in 3-5 years there is a flag waiting for them as the crop matures. GC will be stuffed if Ablett has regular injuries and if they lose someone like Fraser. I think he was a massive get at the end of last year with an ability to go forward, and think they should have got Jack Anthony as well prior agreement with Freo/Connors or not.
You guys are giving Gold Coast a hard time. Don't forget Gablet was so good at times last year he was winning games by himself. With Ricshelli running next to him, they'll have little trouble getting the ball into the forward line.. Just may have trouble doing something with it there. I think they'll beat Port and Richmond and a few others (maybe Bulldogs)But will struggle against the really good teams home or away. NAB will tell
Collingwood Hawthorn Saint Kilda Bulldogs Geelong Fremantle North Carlton Melbourne Richmond Essendon West Coast Adelaide Port Gold Coast Brisbane Pies should top the ladder again but Hawks should also bounce back from the last few years and the two teams will be awesome to watch in 2011. Saints and Doggies a bit off the pace of those two clubs. Geelong could fall away without Ablett and with Ling, Corey, Milburn, Enright and Ottens all slowing down. No guarantees on how Selwood will handle the tag week in and out without Ablett. Freo could be better than last year, but will be missing Tarrant and I can't see them being better than the Pies, Hawks, Saints, Doggies or Cats. The rest of the teams in the middle there could go in any order depending on injury/natural improvement, even Gold Coast who have a good side but with no depth, so injuries to experienced players such as Gaz or Bock and they're in Barney. I can't see Brisbane coping with the loss of Riska, Brennan, Sherman and potentially no Fev for the year with Black, Power, Brown all getting older and their backline consisting of some of the most injury prone players in the league in Drummond, Adcock, Maguire and Merrett. Buddy for the Coleman, Shuey for the Rising Star and Goddard for the Brownlow.
For the browlow, I would definately take a stab at Selwood. With Ablett gone, he will be the one taking most of the votes for Geelong, provided they don't slip down the ladder too badly. Pendlebury and Swan will take votes off each other, Goddard will have votes taken off by Hayes, Riewoldt, Montagna and Dal Santo.