In a bit of where are they now.. The top 3 and the bottom performer from each round; Foul Bay the only team who picked their top 5 returns, another indicator of the impact of the initial draft, Iron Knob were second. I'm curious Chief, did you reuse the intel that Hornsy used for the FL draft? I would have if it were available for sure. 2012 was my 2nd year of SC and my 2nd year of fantasy sport so I'm not surprised at the Misfit's outcomes from that draft, it would be interesting to know how much experience sat on the shoulder of the initial draftees.. Anyway, back to the topic; results from the above outline below
Many thanks for this series of posts Len - it is always a treat to see how others think about data. I reckon you are right about the Hornsy / Chief data sharing. That is not a criticism of you chief - I would have done exactly the same had the data been available to me. Len, I wonder how different the tables look if you use the 2014 data rather than the three year data? Does it show more explicitly (say) the emergence of the Wombats as real combatants?
Len, given that the ORFFL was Hornsy's brainchild I perhaps had a bit more time up my sleeve initially to see how strategy unfolded in that draft and how I could adapt it to the ORFFA. Before the ORFFL draft we had many conversations around what we saw as the important factors in drafting up a team and came up with a list based largely on predicted output and strength of position. I had some mathematical modelling experience, so I was able to crudely put something together that we continued to tweak until it 'looked right'. I remember sitting with him as the live ORFFL draft occurred and while he was the boss man in charge of his own team, I offered my 2c should he have asked for it. Occasionally he went 'off spreadsheet', but largely what was drafted was what we planned out. In terms of the ORFFA draft, because it happened mid season, I had 6 or 7 rounds of more current data that added to the jigsaw puzzle and this changed the order, not only of where I saw players going, but also which round I thought players were valued at. The other variable that came into play for the ORFFA draft as compared to the ORFFL draft was that I saw that there was a slightly higher premium placed on youth in the ORFFA. This meant that some older players who were proven scorers were passed over for players who had more upside. I had Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban's mantra in my head at that point to 'zig, when others zag' and went down the path of snapping up players (i.e. Pavlich, Tuck, Sewell, Kelly) that were proven scorers that might have been a bit too long in the tooth for others. The strategy of 'zigging, when others zag' has served me well thus far and hope that it will continue to, even as others change their strategy. But to get back to answering your question, the 'intel' was always joint intel, right from the beginning of the ORFFL. It is perhaps less so now, as we have branched off and there is now different needs and pools of players to draft from.
graeme wrote: Many thanks for this series of posts Len - it is always a treat to see how others think about data. I reckon you are right about the Hornsy / Chief data sharing. That is not a criticism of you chief - I would have done exactly the same had the data been available to me. Len, I wonder how different the tables look if you use the 2014 data rather than the three year data? Does it show more explicitly (say) the emergence of the Wombats as real combatants? Surprisingly no Graeme, only two teams had a noticeable movement up the table of averages, Gundagai and Whitsunday's, Gundagai improved their average round ranking by 3 points from 11th to 8th and Whitsunday's went from 8th to 6th. I suspect the type of movement you are after would be more accurately seen in analysis of full squads for 2014, and not in only the initial draft batch. I will have a look at playing with blended but discernible draft stats later and if it makes sense share it
ChiefRussell wrote: Len, given that the ORFFL was Hornsy's brainchild I perhaps had a bit more time up my sleeve initially to see how strategy unfolded in that draft and how I could adapt it to the ORFFA. Before the ORFFL draft we had many conversations around what we saw as the important factors in drafting up a team and came up with a list based largely on predicted output and strength of position. I had some mathematical modelling experience, so I was able to crudely put something together that we continued to tweak until it 'looked right'. I remember sitting with him as the live ORFFL draft occurred and while he was the boss man in charge of his own team, I offered my 2c should he have asked for it. Occasionally he went 'off spreadsheet', but largely what was drafted was what we planned out. In terms of the ORFFA draft, because it happened mid season, I had 6 or 7 rounds of more current data that added to the jigsaw puzzle and this changed the order, not only of where I saw players going, but also which round I thought players were valued at. The other variable that came into play for the ORFFA draft as compared to the ORFFL draft was that I saw that there was a slightly higher premium placed on youth in the ORFFA. This meant that some older players who were proven scorers were passed over for players who had more upside. I had Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban's mantra in my head at that point to 'zig, when others zag' and went down the path of snapping up players (i.e. Pavlich, Tuck, Sewell, Kelly) that were proven scorers that might have been a bit too long in the tooth for others. The strategy of 'zigging, when others zag' has served me well thus far and hope that it will continue to, even as others change their strategy. But to get back to answering your question, the 'intel' was always joint intel, right from the beginning of the ORFFL. It is perhaps less so now, as we have branched off and there is now different needs and pools of players to draft from. Makes complete sense, and highlights the value of not just game/stats knowledge, but the value of knowing how to apply that knowledge to gain benefit. If I were to start another keeper team from scratch I know I would do it vastly differently and quite a lot more mathematically, I have had the pleasure of learning from every mistake makeable I am sure.. Congrats to both yourself and Jim for nailing it & giving us something to chase down, hopefully the Misfits have a flag sometime this century
Thanks for making all of those posts Len. From your data Cradle Mountain's clear top five for total points scored over the three years are Pendlebury with 7,644, and then Redden, S Johnson, Heppell and Zorko all tightly bunched with between 5,500 and 5,900 points each. The first four players named were all selected in the first six rounds and are ranked in the top four for their draft round whilst Zorko was a bargain basement pick being selected in the 19th round. The first six rounds and the Zorko selection were the highpoint for the Cradle Mountain draft - even with Round 2 pick Thomas in hindsight being a miss, and later trader due to becoming a pure mid in 2014. All of my picks from Round 7 to 13 scored less than the average for their round. My 26 players have scored a total of 84,546 points, 1,034 points down on the ORFFA average of 85,580 which equates to 40 points per player. Eight of the Devils top nine point scorers from the inaugural draft remain at the club, the exception being seventh ranked Devon Smith who is exactly the type of player I would love to have in my forward line now. Whilst changes in player position have played a large part in Cradle Mountain's once feared forward line becoming much weaker I have also played a part. Whilst no CMD players ranked last for their draft round, four rank 17th, Thomas, Mark Jamar, and my last two selections, Tom Ledger and Alex Forster. Thankfully most of the time the Devils ruckman Jamar and West have been able to co-ordinate their injuries so that whilst one is injured the other is fit and in the side.
ChiefRussell wrote: [span style='font-size: 12.960000038146973px;]I offered my 2c should he have asked for it. Occasionally he went 'off spreadsheet' Tom Hawkins ORFFL Career Avg. 83.29 Teammates Wives Slept With 0 Allen Christensen ORFFL Career Avg. 87.48 Teammates Wives Slept With 1
Hornsy wrote: ChiefRussell wrote: [span style='font-size: 12.960000038147px;]I offered my 2c should he have asked for it. Occasionally he went 'off spreadsheet' Tom Hawkins ORFFL Career Avg. 83.29 Teammates Wives Slept With 0 Allen Christensen ORFFL Career Avg. 87.48 Teammates Wives Slept With 1 SAR have an assistant coach named Carey?
Hornsy wrote: ChiefRussell wrote: [span style='font-size: 12.960000038147px;]I offered my 2c should he have asked for it. Occasionally he went 'off spreadsheet' Tom Hawkins ORFFL Career Avg. 83.29 Teammates Wives Slept With 0 Allen Christensen ORFFL Career Avg. 87.48 Teammates Wives Slept With 1 Haha, good stats! I would look up total points over the three years, but I can't be bothered.
ChiefRussell wrote: Hornsy wrote: ChiefRussell wrote: [span style='font-size: 12.960000038147px;]I offered my 2c should he have asked for it. Occasionally he went 'off spreadsheet' Tom Hawkins ORFFL Career Avg. 83.29 Teammates Wives Slept With 0 Allen Christensen ORFFL Career Avg. 87.48 Teammates Wives Slept With 1 Haha, good stats! I would look up total points over the three years, but I can't be bothered. Total points you say? Are you forgetting one Jarrad Mayne?
Tom Hawkins ORFFL Career Avg.83.29 Teammates Wives Slept With0 Allen Christensen ORFFL Career Avg.87.48 Teammates Wives Slept With1 H, are these projections or historic averages? Is the 'Teammates Wives Slept With' a gross 'career' figure or an annual average?
Do you know how? @walesy might be able to tackle it for you if we ask nicely Looks like similar formatting used throughout, so it might not be too much trouble for someone with his nous
the first post was C&P from excel, trying to find the original so I can upload it, will be easy if I can..