<blockquote>Quote from Holey on February 26, 2012, 08:01 I expect Chapman to return more to the middle, and Stevie J to spend more time forward. As good as Stevie was last year, his increase was based on more midfield time, which I think will decrease this year. I think it would be reasonably unlikely that Stevie J could outscore Franklin over a year.</blockquote> What is making you think SJ will not play mid this season. It seemed as though that was one of main changes Scott wanted to make to the side. I can't see it changing. And I hope you're right about Chappy, but what makes you expect him in mid more this year - is it just that SJ will not be in there, or something else?
is nic-nat still having problems with his shoulder,any reliable inside info appreciated(or just a steer clear will do!)cheers
Thanks for replying Holey and now understand your reasoning. I beg to differ cos I think he's a freak on the rise and undervalued due to his poor start to 2011. Am concerned at any shoulder issues but he only has to show me something during the NAB to get into my team. Cheers!
Love your work Holey I've played around with it and sort the player by price and position and it has made me rethink a few things Elite Premiums (120+) Mids Pendlebury (mid)$700,500 Ablett (mid)$689,000 Swan (mid)$661,100 Selwood (mid)$604,600 Sub-Elite Premiums (110-120) Def Goddard (def/mid)$584,700 Mid Murphy (mid)$639,900 Dal Santo (mid)$647,100 Judd (mid)$626,400 Rockliff (mid)$615,600 Swallow (mid)$606,700 Gibbs (mid)$558,600 Montagna (mid)$545,900 Ruc Goldstein (ruc)$613,600 Fwd Franklin (fwd)$600,600 Fyfe (fwd/mid)$585,700 Chapman (fwd/mid)$548,600 Premium (100-110) Def Deledio (def/mid)$568,700 Mid Boyd (mid)$626,100 Priddis (mid)$618,500 Mitchell (mid)$615,000 Thomas (mid)$592,900 Griffin (mid)$586,700 Hodge (mid)$577,200 Watson (mid)$574,600 Redden (mid)$557,600 Bartel (mid)$548,800 Beams (fwd/mid)$546,400 Cotchin (mid)$545,300 Kennedy (mid)$520,900 Shuey (mid)$513,000 Barlow (mid)$453,600 Ruc Cox (ruc)$662,600 Sandilands (ruc)$600,500 Mumford (ruc)$610,300 Leuenberger (ruc)$554,200 McEvoy (ruc)$548,800 Fwd Pavlich (fwd/mid)$573,000 N Riewoldt (fwd)$472,400
Would probably have missed this forum if not for the new format, thanks Walesy. Holey, I'm going for a personal best in overall rather than leagues and wonder how much that would change your assessments. I'll be picking Steele over Beams (sounds like a construction project) but interested in your thoughts on the others if that's not too much work.
Comprehensive list Holey! Good Work. The one that sticks out to me is Boyd, you have him dropping to “Premium” – In my opinion I think he’ll have another massive year and could be pushing for “Elite” come seasons end. Good to see you have the newly appointed captain of Geelong in your Elite section, I think he can reach those heights as well, and if he does, would be a bargain at 604k!
@22nd I'm with you on Watson, reckon he's in for a big year. Big worry is the hammys and the rd 12 bye doesnt help.
Holey, you've certainly got cred with the writing in the past, and your knowledge of elite games as per your Brownlow selections must have some credence. I'm in agreement with most things here, but some will have to agree to disagree. On Goldstein, can see Hamish taking some of his TOG. That will eat points, and is unavoidable. If Cox leaks, where does it go? Would Priddis then become elite? Because you have him going from sub-elite to premium. I would guess, therefore, that you believe the Eagles overachieved in 2011, and they will get some comeuppance this year. On what I saw, particularly in the finals against quality opposition, personally, I can't agree. They are going to be in it all the way this season. Shuey is an interesting one. I guess from the fact I've only really seen him when he plays Collingwood (and has got smashed in intensity), I haven't really witnessed his strong home matches (no Foxtel) I couldn't put Shuey ahead of Kerr as an Eagle, but if Shuey cops a tag it would increase chances for others, particularly Kerr and maybe Hurn (though he gets less ball these days due to the deep WCE mids). I'm seeing WCE being unlikely to change that much on their output from last season, that's my take, and hence I can't see a massive drop for Cox, unless it's passed almost entirely to Priddis-Shuey-Naitanui-Kerr. Barlow. I'm not sure. Teams will be ready for him. His injury was huge. His season was unexpected, and hence I think he wasn't smashed with intensity so much as his teammates. His DE could suffer on return. Mid 90s for me, with "Fyfe being the new Barlow" JPK. We've been burned before Holey. He and Bolton have an interesting synergy going. Bolton averaged 110 in wins last year and 70 in losses. JPK averaged 92 in wins and 103 in losses. Chapman and SJ? I don't really agree. Chapman may have said the team carried him, well given his twingy hammies they may have to do more. You don't normally improve with age, and the Cats need to groom the kids for the big jobs. I can see status quo. SJ I'm unsure about the effect of the injury. Apparently he got a bit lucky to get through the GF, but it's done lasting damage a bit like Didak's pec injury in 2011. Bartel however I can see taking more of a role and pushing up. Man, what a quality big game player. I can see Jimmy going up as a few of Ottens' ruck points don't go to Orren, but leak to the midfield. On Gibbs, he'd be great value if he does what you predict. I think Carlton need to use him more offensively, but I'm not convinced Ratten has finished educating him on his defensive side of the game. It's a tough call, develop the player or win the matches now while Judd still has a bit of miles in the tank left. I'd go for the wins now, even if Gibbs isn't fully rounded at the end of it. Rioli-JPK-Shuey vs Scotland-Shaw-Thompson Sorry but I'd back the bottom 3 any day of the week to outscore the top, particularly on overall points. Thompson given the Crows' average draw should be right up there in the points. He should start like a freight train before a lull just before the bye. Scotland had a great 'renaissance' season. I could see him remaining premium. He's a hard runner in a deep midfield and uses the ball well. Shaw plays in the midfield on the wing. Will score a high average, over 100 should be doable again this season. Redemption required.
Holey, thats a fantastic analysis, and I feel its backed-up even more with Lucas' take on things - although I must tell you Lucas that I've never played for the Sydney Swans!!!
Nice work Holey, great breakdown especially the sub-elite category. And nice follow up read Lucas. Goldstein agree, Shuey????(could he break out or not), Barlow Agree, JPK and Bolton(would love them to prove me wrong but only so many 100's to go per team) Bartel(I think some points might also leak to Hawkins/Christensen), Gibbs(I would love to see him act more offensively, Can't help thinking Ratsy is moulding him on himself, just that Gibbs is a more natural talent, Sorry Brett) I would also take the bottom 3 as they are more consistent SC'ers, yet their will be a year, maybe this year, that the younger brigade step up and take over from the old tried and true warhorses from previous seasons. Which leads me to my thoughts on Breakout players. Going through the younger(<=24yrs) lower tier premiums(<550kmid, <500kFwd/Back/Ruck) who haven't yet stepped up to elite(>550k or top 10) Who are we keeping an eye on or who do you think will make the step up to Supercoach Immortals. I'm currently keeping an eye on, (in no particular order) Shuey, Cotchin, Hawkins, Watts(I know but can a No.1 draft pick keep giving 70's his whole career), Sloane, Kennedy, Swallow(GC variety), Scully, Trengrove, Heppell, Christensen, Hartlett, Foley, Shiels, Robinson, Ward, Van Berlo, Rosa, Rich, Hannebery, Scott 'the baby ducker' Selwood, Jack, Zeibel, Stevens. Any GC or GWS player.... Sorry Started to digress while listing names. Yet I think that any of these players could make the step up to Elite or Sub-elite be it this year or in seasons to come. Almost all of them have the skills and I hate using this term but 'Footy Smarts' required to be Elite, yet as we know coaches and game plans can destroy SC points.
Where's the future Elite Dangerfield dabombers? chuckle chuckle "How can a no1 draft pick keep giving 70s his whole career" Ask Josh Fraser Of your latter list, guys I think will never become 110ppg Hawkins, Watts, Sloane, JPK, Heppell, Christensen, Foley, Shiels, Robinson, NVB, Rosa, S Selwood, Ziebell, Stevens I still think they are good players whose best is in front of them, just 110 ppg is a hard ask
Dangerfield, I like that, Maybe when he comes back to a Victorian team aka Geelong 2013. Josh Fraser forget he was a No.1 Cant help but remember what an ordinary player Swan was early in his career, a bit like Rodger Federer( I know wrong sport), but he's somehow found something to become elite. 110 is hard to achieve I agree yet some players just know how to get the pill and a few you've cancelled out could become one of those. For Hawkins and Watts it would have to be through 70+ goal seasons. The others it would be through becoming elite midfielders or consistent time in the midfield and getting 30+ possies. Last year I took a punt on Fyfe from the start and it paid off quite well. I'm tempted but don't know if I have the Cahoonas yet to take a punt on one or more of D.Swallow, Sloane, Heppell, Cotchin ,Hartlett(in a weak port side) to take the step up. Oh And I forgot B.Goddard JNR.......
Holey, can I ask you about Birchall, I feel he will avg 100 this year. Hawks will win plenty of games and he gets a lot of the ball and uses it well?
Birchall averaged 100 in wins and 68 in losses, probably in those games he was tagged out by very intelligent oppositions. Can't see him doing better in wins than last year, I would suggest another 85-95 ppg year from Birchall, maybe a bit more points from the security of not having to guard as dangerous a man with Gilham/Stratton etc back there, but then again, maybe less interception ball funnelled through him. You'd probably split your losses with Burgoyne/Birchall/Suckling all probably going to average something similar. Of them I'd say Burgoyne has the biggest upside but also clearly the highest risk.
From looking at last year's stats, Burgoyne looked stuck in that 80 average, was used as more sparingly by the Hawks than in the midfield at Port. Not sure he's going to be useful with his DM either.
Great lists, good work. I can see how you think Cox (age & Naitanui) and Sandilands (being rested more) would drop points, but what is your thinking about Mumford having a lower average? Scotland, Shaw, Thompson, Goodes? Really not sure that these guys will drop. Thompson especially stands out for me. Easy draw, #1 midfielder, can't see him going backwards at all. @ Lucas: Have to disagree about Chapman, definitely think he's going to be back to his old self (though maybe 105-110 rather than 110+). Edit: Didn't see there was a 2nd page, argh. Don't bet against Christensen scoring 110ppg, he is going to be a jet.
Great work Holey. I am not sure that Thompson will maintain his scoring from last year. He is one bloke who will be adversely affected by the change in scoring for clanger kicks. Even with the easy draw I dont see him in the top 10 midfielders.
Scotland will not drop his avg, has had an even better pre-season than this time last year, kicks much more than he handballs and hardly ever turns the ball over. Quality player and worth the initial investment specifically as the back premiums aren't particularly attractive outside of the obvious top echelon. Goddard, Deledio and Scotland are the elite, forget about the Broughtons, Birchalls, Adcocks and the like, grab the elite and top up the backline with the value picks. Not sure about Christensen being able to average 110, gun player but may settle somewhere in the 90s I suspect this season, will that be enough to justify the initial outlay? Thompson is a butcher of the football and wont maintain his overblown average of last season.