2013 ORFFA Premiership Odds

Solid work as always CR. And I'm still coming to terms with the Sam Iles delisting

 

'20.50 Powlett Plains (Needs to find some youth and more midfield power)'
[span style='font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.3;]My mids/youth are currently: Scully and Armitage (both will have 100+ seasons) Cornes/Hodge/Ball (85-90 guys) Beams/Melksham (young guys that play 22 games and could crack 80) Add to that young emerging ruck T-Bell paired with Jolly (both will average 90+) Up back got Chaplin and Newman, both will get 80-90, as will Murphy Then up forward BUDDY and the healthy Blonde Bomber, with emerging youngsters Tom Lynch, Smedts and Jones. Add to that a good draft spot.
I really like those odds

 

12.50 Venus Bay (very busy offseason, lots of moves improved the team...but still kept Dawson and Tynan on the list ahead of others...interesting) Considered delisting both but didn't feel it was needed, Tynan was a bit of a punt but liked what I saw last year, been hearing good things. And Dawson will play 22 games every year, if I need a spare backman he is there to get me 50-60, instead of having someones score halved to 30-40odd. Delisted Morabito as he is injury prone, Ellard can't get a game and Morton is a bit of a dud, stupid trading got him onto my team. 12.50 is intresting, but happy to fly under the radar Haha

 

Alright, so I said it would come later, but thought I would get it out on a quiet Sunday evening. The odds leading into the 2013 ORFFA season after all the wheeling, dealing and drafting has been completed...
3.00 Foul Bay Not much to report from the defending champs given where they were placed in the draft. Went more mature age than most, given they are in the 'window'.
5.00 Iron Knob Like the champs, most of their pickups were depth players as they have a pretty strong squad. Rhyce Shaw may push Colin Garland for the D4 position.
6.50 Cradle Mountain Vlaustin a good pick for when Fletcher retires. I like Ben Kennedy also, but reports suggest that he is off the pace for a 2013 spot at this stage. Picked for the future without really affecting 2013.
8.00 Birdsville Love, love, love Jesse Lonergan. He is behind a few in a deep midfield squad though. Clear top 4 side for mine.
10.50 Marble Bar Would be pretty happy to get Whitfield at 3. My somewhat ballsy prediction...while he might not make it into Marble Bar's best 15 necessarily, Whitfield will average more this season than the more hyped J-BOMB.
11.00 Larrakin Lagoon While most pundits will rave about being able to get both Daniher and O'Rourke into the club, the best pick for mine (and the one to make the most immediate impact) was the drafting of Dan Nicholson. Will definitely be best 15 for mine while Scotland sits out the first couple.
12.00 Darraweit Guim I will put it out there now...Michael Walters - best pick in the draft. Will score more points this season than any other player drafted this year and to get him at pick 13 is a steal. Still very young. Rest of the picks not terribly relevant.
12.50 Venus Bay Vultures Quiet draft period. All Fitzy's work was done prior to the draft.
12.50 Far Kew Frogs May surprise people, but one of the big movers for mine. BB did a great job as interim GM with Carlisle and Watson vying for best 15 honors and definite upgrades over what was there previously. Plenty of hype for Majak as well, although I still don't see him pushing out Goldstein...maybe Hansen or Tarrant though. New manager Jen not only guarantees that they will field a team each week, but also that a cliched name gets the shaft. I also like the pick of Corey at the end. Will probably walk into M4 and give better service than the previous incumbent.
12.50 Wagga Wagga The forward line is still a massive concern for me. Desperately need Sam Mayes to play regularly. Didn't do enough to address this for mine. Would have liked to see a 'mature age forward' get drafted, even if only to address the deficiency for a year or two until Mayes is ready.
13.50 Gariwerd The Melbourne boys are the story here. Toumpas looked the goods in NAB 1 and Sam Blease could be a sneaky good pick. Both are well down in Gariwerd's rotation though.
14.50 Mount Beauty Liked the draft from Mount Beauty. Still kept the youth policy well in tact, but drafted midfield talent to allow Hartlett to play as a defender possibly and I also love the pick of Stephen May. D/F's are very underrated in ORFFA and he looks like a big lump of a lad with a big kick and a big future.
15.50 Charlie's Opening While I'm not as bullish as Terry, there wasn't much 'The Opening' could do from their lowly draft position. As has been pointed out by many, Thurlow will be a player...but probably not for a few years for mine. Stephen Wells doesn't get it wrong too often.
15.50 Waikiki Another big mover. Like the picks of Crouch and Graham, although don't expect either to break into the Waikiki best 15 this year. Macaffer might be one to push for best 15 honors off the bench and Angus Graham is an astute pick who should score well if number 1 ruckman Jacobs (who is also at Waikiki) goes down.
16.00 Nunawading Milne addresses a need and has the advantage that he should play 22 (unless he allegedly rapes someone). Jaegar will be a jet in time. I also like the Lester pick at that stage of the draft. The ruck situation still really worries me and as has been noted previously, as much as I hate the Bombers and hope he goes poorly, Daniher would have made more sense for mine...or taking a risk on Michael Walters at pick 1, which would have been really ballsy.
16.00 Gungagai If Stringer is over the injury worries he will really help this team, both long term and short term. Sandilands going down really hurts though, despite the fact that Gundagai also has Griffin.
17.50 Powlett Plains Certainly went tall at the draft with Grundy, Gorringe and Lycett all making their way to Powlett Plains. Unless they are playing first ruck though, they aren't going to score and I don't see this being the case this season.
22.50 Whitsundays Ollie Wines was my favourite player from a SC perspective in the 2012 NAB AFL draft. So that is a big tick for the Whitsundays. My main concern is with the balance of the squad. By my reckoning there are 10 forwards on the books and none of them apart from the Big Tommahawk (my favourite player in the AFL) are proven. Yes, John Patton is going to be a superstar (and he may already be the 2nd best forward on the list for productivity this year) but to be frank I don't really think the rest of them are up to it. There are a lot of other players on the list that I love (Judd, Sloane, Birchall, Alex Johnson) so I will be barracking for them, but there are far too many holes at either end of the ground for mine.
So overall, I think that there are probably four clear cut top 4 sides at this stage and then you can nearly throw a blanket over most of the rest, particularly around the 7-14 mark. As is the case both in the real stuff and in fantasy land, injuries will probably be the determining factor in a lot of teams chances so these odds are somewhat reflective of what would happen were a team to lose a couple of big guns.
Feel free to get the torches fired up and the pitch forks sharpened....

 

Great work Chief! No fire and brimstone from me, though I reckon my 11 is a bit generous. Will need all guns firing to realise those odds. Carrots concerns me as I feel last yrs figures were helped by injuries and form of other blues, will be interesting to see his role this yr. Scotland's backfill will prolly be a dice roll with most of my defs in the mix, not a bad place to be I spose.

 

HHmm..................finished 4th last season, now predicted to slide to 16th ???? We will see amigos ~ bring it on

 

fine work Chief, reckon you have the Waikiks a bit short. If you were to wind the odds out a bit you may see a trickle of money from the supporters.
Pleased you got the Sauce / Graham insurance policy; a little like an old fashioned straddle in which one is long in the physical market and short in the synthetic market. Costs a little but the payoff should be than a disaster.
Just read H's article - I think you guys are saying something similar to what I tried to articulate on the Waikik page.
Good luck with the wedding, you probably don't need any more middle aged divorced guys giving you advice.

 

middle aged? Yep TiB - do not feel old and do not feel young, ibid.

 

Side note ~ I find myself far more interested in ORFFA & my squad than SC itself.

 

you are not Robinson Crusoe with that sNoZ. At times I feel like entering my ORFFA team in SC to see how it goes. But I know I can do better ....

 

chels wrote:
you are not Robinson Crusoe with that sNoZ. At times I feel like entering my ORFFA team in SC to see how it goes. But I know I can do better .... Haha. I did actually look at that chels. Can't get 'em under the cap though. Maybe if I can apply for a cost of living allowance, or perhaps there are 'Visy deals' available for some and not others in SC as well?
I'm also in the same boat though. I play in a cash league in SC with some mates, but I'll be much happier if my beloved Battlers put in a good showing this year rather than winning that league.