I can see the tide turning. just went out back to the money tree and pulled a couple of leaves off r4/b15:freo 1-39 bet $200 odds 2.15 bet placed 2 minutes b4 bounce
time for a sunday feast, more bets below r4/b16 - multi Adelaide / north melbourne bet: $100 odds: 2.04 r4/b17 - multi west coast / north 1-39 / Adelaide bet:$50 odds: 4.11 r4/b18 - multi west coast 1-39 / north 1-39 / Adelaide bet:$50 odds: 6.09 bets placed sunday 925am
Round 4 summary. What a sad tale of punting. In the last 4 weeks I think a coin toss on selecting winners would of faired better than I did. Sure I copped another shellacking this week but I can only hope the worst is behind me. It actually wouldn't have been a bad round if Adelaide won the last game of the round. I had two multi's that hinged on the last game. If the multi's ended up winning, I somehow make a profit for the week. The coin fell the other way on this occasion and not only did it hurt my back pocket, it affected a majority of punters. I believe I said in my selection post that the favourites would win between the margin 1-39. Well aren't I a clever dick. Only 2 of 8 results occurred in this manner. To make it even harder for that to happen, only 5 of 9 favourites won this week. Well we all know what happened to me this round, let's have a look at the filthy numbers below: Round 4 summary: Bets: 18 ...Won (3) Lost (15) Profit/Loss for round: Loss ($677.50) Round Turnover: $1,220 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 46 - Won (9) Lost (37) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($1,981.50) Total turnover: $3,570
Round 5 selections. Welcome back for those that are amused or bemused by my posts. apologies for the late post as I just got home from work. as time is not on my side (27 minutes) I will give you a brief post on tonights game. my theory on the balance of games will be written while watching the footy. I believe that Collingwood should win.......but - they won't. i'm going to call it the Malthouse factor. Collingwood is a better team on paper tonight, but I think the Blues will rise as high as they can and play for Mick. Round 5/ Bet 1: Carlton 1-39 bet:$50 odds:3.10 bet placed 7:02pm Friday live betting might also attract my attention tonight
good morning followers, fell asleep last night and posting the balance of my predictions as we speak. it appears my calculator was broken last night as the 'malthouse factor' button does not work. just as well I jumped on at quarter time selecting Collingwood to win by more than 31 points - to which they did. the first game today is Richmond vs the cats. sure, the cats are not playing at the standard we've expected in the past, but to see Richmond favourites is mind boggling. in fact since mitch clark was confirmed as out, they went from $2.20 to as short as $1.68. Cats are @$2.20. I I would like to think, this is the best time Richmond has a chance to beat the cats and I think they will just get over the line Sydney play the doggies at a sodden scg. swans $1.17 / dogs $5.25. The bulldogs have played some really good footy so far apart from the Tassie debacle. the wet footy wont help the tippet/franklin machine and some players in the swans aren't wet track runners. in saying all this, they will win, but the margin should be less than 40. the market there is $2.05 gold coast vs Brisbane is anyones guess. apparently the ground is holding up well but the rest of the state didn't cope with the 100mm of rain in the past 36 hours. both teams are $1.92 the win and also $2.35 for the 1-39 margin. I believe that the winning margin, once again will be less than 40. an interesting market might also be the total points in the game - the line is at 172.5 for odds of $1.88. hawks $1.35 vs kangas $3.30. line is 20.5. this time last year both teams met at the same venue and the kangas got up in an upset. I think the hawks should be too good on this occasion but I don't think they'll blow them away. punters here have a number of options for some added value. if you back the hawks, the $2.25 1-39 margin could be the go, or for kanga punters, $3.80 for an upset win under 40 points west coast $1.66 vs gws $2.25. there has been a soft whisper that the upset is on the cards here. in my eyes, the upset will not occur. they have played 3 times and the average winning margin is 98. last time at subi, the eagles won by 111 points. the line here is 7.5 and is the bet of the round. wce at the line is a monty. Melbourne $4.90 vs freo $1.19.last week after hearing from all those Melbourne supporters how shite Richmond is, I had to sit back and cop it. this week, we will see if the demons continue on the improvement curve. for mine it is a solid fremantle win. if you think the demons are in it, the line at 30.5 should be the way to bet. the saints $5.50 vs bombers $1.16. well in my opinion, the saints might as well be 15/1. they are as dysfunctional as Brisbane and gold coast. the bombers aren't a powerhouse, but they have showed us enough that they should win easily. the bombers are paying $1.90 for 40+. interestingly, they are paying $1.92 to reach the line of 38.5. Go figure? the showdown will be a very good game. Adelaide $2.35 vs port $1.62. the tipsters seem to think that port will win(73%). I also think they should do enough and win. the line is at 8.5. I believe it will be a close game and the 1-39 markets should appeal to punters. port is $2.25 while Adelaide is $2.85 for that market. well, there you have it. use the information wisely and for the wise, it may mean going opposite to my selections below. good luck to the punters and if you have too much luck, throw some my way. selections will be made throughout the weekend. in saying that, let's see initial bets below: round 4/bet 5:richmond 1-39 bet $35 odds 2.25 r4/b6: swans 1-39 bet: $35 odds: 2.05 r4/b7: bris 1-39 bet: $35 odds: 2.35 r4/b8: (multi madness) Richmond 1-39 Sydney 1-39 bris 1-39 haw 1-39 wce 40+ freo 1-39 ess 40+ port win bet: $15 odds: a whopping 772.45 r4/b9: Essendon -38.5 bet: $50 odds: 1.92 r4/b10: wce win bet: $100 odds: 1.68 r4/b11: Richmond 1-39 / swans win / bris 1-39 bet:$35 odds $6.18 all bets placed between 11:30 - 12:10 Saturday am that's it for now. don't be too surprised if I also post live bets. good luck punters and throw some my way if you have too much of it, throw some my way
ok so I tip Richmond and Sydney and they both lose. this is a quick post to let you guys know that I have taken advantage of the 'cash out'feature on Sportsbet on these two bets and I also placed a live bet at about 1/2 time in the Richmond game, where I took Richmond at -19.5 for $50. more on the above soonish. this is a post for more bets. round 4/bet 13: hawks 1-39 bet:$50 odds: 2.25 placed 7:04 pm sat
round 4/bet 14: (multi) hawthorn win west coast -5.5 fremantle 1-39 Essendon -38.5 port Adelaide win bet:$40 odds: 16.80 bet placed 7:14pm sat r4/b15: hawthorn / west coast -5.5 bet: $75 odds: 2.57 placed 7:18pm sat
ok going back to that post about cashing out bets and the live bet. the live bet was: round 4/bet 12: Richmond -19.5 bet: $50 odds: 1.88 bet placed early 3rd quarter. now the original Richmond bet was cashed out. original bet: $35 cash out value: $11.15 the other cash out was the Sydney bet against bulldogs original bet: $35 cash out value: $35.49 this was cashed out when the doggies were up by 19 in the 3rd qtr. so....if I didn't cash out either bet and didn't make the live bet, I would be -$70. by cashing out and posting live bet I was $20.64 in the black. a turnaround of $90. anyway, thought i'd explain myself. the logic behind cashing out worked on this occasion.
Finally...My first profitable week on the punt. Even though it was a small win, it sure feels better than donating a monkey to Sportsbet. My strike rate for a winning bet this week was once again deplorable - 33%. My annual win rate to date is 23% - pick the adjective for me. On Friday night, all initial bets lost. I cashed out one initial bet (for a smaller loss) and placed a live bet on the Pies to win by more than 31 points, to which they did. This live bet placed me $32 up for the night, which was near enough the profit I made for the whole week. Following Friday night I had 11 bets of which only 4 were winning tickets. I could look at this result in two different lights. For the positive side, I only won a third of those bets and some how didn't lose money, but won enough to buy 2 South Melbourne market dimmies. On a plus side of the selection forum, I did say that the best bet of the round was WCE at the line at -5.5. Even though I didn't place this bet as a single, I did collect $68 profit on the $100 @ 1.68. Another positive result was collecting on my first multi for the year. The $75 @ $2.57, netting a profit of $117.75. So all in all, there are no complaints from me this round. Sure there were results that went against me, but that will also happen with favourites. I hope there were punters out there that made a good win for the week. Maybe I did need that good gestured ribbing from Bjaensch. I'll post again Friday afternoon and the numbers are below. Round 5 summary: Bets: 15 ...Won (5) Lost (10) Profit/Loss for round: Profit $37.78 Round Turnover: $770 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 61 - Won (14) Lost (47) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($1,943.72) Total turnover: $4,340
Round 6 selections. Welcome back for my astute prediction of what will happen this round. Tonight we kick off with Collingwood $1.56 vs Geelong $2.50. line is 9.5. On paper Collingwood is the team that is going to win. I look at every match and predict if it will be a blow out (by more than 39 points). On this occasion, I think not and the $2.20 on Collingwood is a lot more enticing than the $1.56. The only back up with the head to head betting up until round 8 Is that if your team (let's use Collingwood as the example here) leads at any change but loses, you will get your stake back up to $100. Tomorrow we start with North $1.58 vs Richmond $2.45. Line is 9.5. Don't ask me why but Richmond will somehow get over the line in this one. The $2.95 for the 1-39 margin is appealing. If I take hope into the equation and leave bias out, the $2.45 is good if they lead at any quarter but fall away lose. The Sportsbet promotion will cover me there. Bulldogs $1.42 vs Saints $2.95. Line is 16.5. I don't know how you can go against the Dogs as they are on song so far this season while the Saints have only showed us glipses of good footy - not enough to win games of football. I believe that the Dogs will cover their line and the $1.92 is fair odds. GWS $3.85 vs Hawks $1.28. Line is 25.5. This is my bet of the round. I can confidently say that I will be waiting in the pay out queue for my line bet on the Hawks. Gold Coast $5.75 vs Adelaide $1.15. Line is 37.5. The Adelaide Crows have dropped away from their early dominance so I am sceptical for them to dominate this game. Yes, they will win but the margin is a mystery to me. With disciplinary action being taken by the coach and having players of a better standard missing, the Gold Coast should get a touch up. Initial thoughts has me looking at the Crows 1-39 @ 2.45. That may change though. Melbourne $5.10 vs Swans $1.18. Line is 31.5. Melbourne are a hard team to judge this year. I expected a close one against Freo last week and it didn't eventuate. I would like to think, they will bring their A+ game at the G and give the Swans a shake up. The Swans this year don't like a wet game and with rain predicted this weekend, backing Melbourne at the line would be a good option. Last game, Freo $1.24 vs Essendon $4.25. Line is 26.5. As much as Essendon have won 2 of their last 3 at Subi, I think that it will be Freo's turn on this occasion. Freo nearly get my attention as the bet of the week but they fell just short. I'm very confident in saying the Freo line bet is as good as gold. So, there you have it. My current selection strike rate is terrible. The smart punter may need to go opposite my selections to make more money this week. For those that live in hope and think I might get it right this week, I hope you back my selections and we both walk away winners. Initial bets below.... Round 6 / Bet 1:Collingwood win bet: $100 odds: 1.58 bet placed fri 7:17pm
Round 6 / bet 2: multi madness - all teams to win.... Collingwood Richmond Western Bulldogs Hawthorn Adelaide Sydney Fremantle Carlton Port Adelaide bet: $50 odds: 18.18 placed fri 7.25pm rnd 6 / bet 3: Hawthorn -25.5 bet:$100 odds:$1.92 placed fri 7.27pm
round 6 / bet 4:coll vs cats - total game points >168.5 bet:$40 odds: 1.88 placed fri 7:45pm r6 / b5: half time margin - coll 13-24 bet:$20 odds: 5.00 placed 7:46pm
Round 6 / bet 6 richmond win Bet 60 Odds 2.45 R6 b7 / 5 leg multi all to win Bulldogs Hawks Sydney Adelaide Fremantle Bet 130 Odds 3.05 R6 b8 / total game points north v richmond «178.5 Bet 75 Odds 1.88 All bets placed after a solid par on the 5th hole moments ago
round 6 / bet 9: hawks win bet $150 odds $1.45 r6 / b10 :hawks -10.5 bet $150 odds $1.88 bets placed at 1/2 time
what an absolute disaster this round is........... round 6 / bet 11:swans -7.5 2nd quarter only bet 150 odds 1.90 placed at quarter time