FINALLY! I have posted my first healthy win for the season. Seven weeks of frustration trying to back a variety of multi's and super short favourites has been temporarily forgotten so I can celebrate this weeks very good result. It also appears that the Kiss of Death virus has been immunised. The fun began on Friday night where the cats won by the required 20 points I needed to collect a $108 profit. This profit was used to pay for the 2 multi's I placed on Friday night. Both the 6 and 9 leg multi's missed by one leg. Adelaide losing by more than 12 points stopped me collecting a further $2,887.94 - ouch, so close. Any how, I try and move on and wait to catch the next fish. As stated in a previous post, I was distracted by being in a four man shout after golf and I missed the jump on the two afternoon games. It appears this worked in my favour as both bets I would have had (as stated in selection post), would have lost. The footy quad I had was dead after the first leg. This result was forgotten as my focus was now on the Hawks/Swans game. The three leg multi I had all hinged on this game as both the Pies and Freo did their bit. The last 10 minutes were intense and at finals end, the Swans hold on and Sportsbet put money in my account. Along came Sunday and I was somewhat confused on what markets I liked in the Essendon/Bris game. In the end I missed it and looked at value in the other two games. This is where I develop my wry smile. As a Tigers man, I lived in hope at a narrow result against the Tiges along with the Dees also losing in a close one to place my 2 leg multi. For pure curiosity I also had a multi on both the Dees and Tiges winning at juicy odds of 14/1. A singles bet on both teams was also placed. Would you believe three hours later, all bets hit. You bloody rippa! The second multi for the week hits and I finally backed two roughies back to back. I just hope that this was not a one off as I look forward in collecting back to back profits in the following round. For those of you that punt, I hope you did well and well done to those that tipped the card with the two upsets to close the round off. The numbers are below. Bets: 9 ...Won (6) Lost (3) Profit/Loss for round: Profit $555.55 Round Turnover: $525 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 94 - Won (24) Lost (70) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($2,483.04) Total turnover: $6,796
Round 9 selections. Big week of footy this week. Whether or not you like the Bombers, I think we all agree that a bloke that is about to play game 400 of VFL/AFL footy deserves a standing ovation. Best of luck Dustin Fletcher. Now for the punting predictions. Friday night sees the Swans $1.01 vs Carlton $18.00. Line is 71.5. Just on a side note, If there is anyone out there that seems to think Malthouse was Carlton's problem, they are farkin kidding themselves. Carlton have bigger problems. They have a player wearing the captain's jumper that wouldn't know what a hard ball get is. No Judd (who is Carlton's best player), Gibbs, oh hang on - no pretend captain. The only good thing that might come of these omissions is if you have Cripps in your supercoach team. Punting wise, it gets tricky in this game. Where is the value?. As shite as Carlton currently are, them losing by the line is no certainty. In saying that, my initial thoughts are to take the Swans at the line. For a couple of unique bets, Tom Mitchell is $2.20 to get to 30 disposals and Buddy is $4.00 to be the Swans first goal scorer. Saturday starts off with another lopsided game judging by the markets. Hawthorn $1.01 vs Gold Coast $18.00. Line is 73.5. I fell into the Hawthorn trap once this year and I ain't going to be stung again. Hawthorn will win but, Where is the value? Hawthorn at the 1/4 time line of -16.5 is $1.75 and at the 1/2 time line -34.5 they are $1.90. For my initial thoughts, I do like the 1/4 time line for a singles bet. The Dees $2.95 vs Port $1.42 at Darwin. Line is 15.5. Finally a game with good value regardless of who you think will win. I like the Dees here. I might not have the kahunas to put solid money on them, but at the line is where my initial thoughts lie. They have a good record against Port and with Port struggling, this will be a very good game to watch. The Bulldogs $2.55 vs GWS $1.53. Line is 13.5. The Bulldogs are flat and GWS are firing. I'm not a GWS fan, but in this match, they will win. My initial thought here is GWS at the 1-39 margin @ $2.25. If I place a multi ( don't twist my arm), I will take the lesser risk and back GWS win only. Dreamtime at the 'G' and Richmond $1.85 vs Essendon $1.98. Line is 1.5. Should the Tigers start favourites? - not in my opinion. Can Richmond spoil two back to back milestone games? - maybe. Without any bias, my initial thoughts are Richmond Ht/FT double @ $2.45. Sportsbet are offering 40/1 for Fletcher to kick 'a' goal in his 400th game. Max bet is $10 and I'll be barracking for this to happen. The other Saturday night game has Adelaide $3.75 vs Fremantle $1.29. Line is 22.5. People, stay on the purple train - it is an express. Good footy teams don't care what ground they play. My initial betting thoughts are Freo at the line. I think that Freo might touch up the Crows and the $2.90 for 40+ could also be the go. Sunday commences with Brisbane $1.64 vs Saints $2.25. Line is 10.5. I'm confused on the winner here. The Roo back is good for footy. My initial thoughts on this game are the Saints at the line. At the 'G', Collingwood $2.00 vs the Kangas $1.84. Line is 2.5. I am a big fan of Collingwood at the moment. On the other hand, North are pretenders. This is my bet of the week - Collingwood to win at $2.00. I do like the way they move the ball and if their spastics up forward can kick straight, they may end up kicking 20 goals this game. If your a bit dizzy and you do like North here, the 1-39 margin @ $2.45 is where you should place your bet. The last game of the week is out west. WCE $1.39 vs Geelong $3.00. Line is 17.5. I don't know why but I really do like the Cats here. To cover my bases, the Cats at the line is where my initial thoughts are. For those that think the fave will salute in the last game in a close one, the $2.15 for a 139 margin is fair value. So, there you have it once again. I'll place my initial bets tomorrow after work and after I fiddle with my supercoach team. See you in about 18 hours.
Good evening followers. Time to see how we can make money tonight at the expense or Carlton. My initial bets are below. round 9 / bet 1: lance franklin to score first goal for swans bet: $15 odds: $4.00 r9 / b2: tom Mitchell to have 30 possessions or more bet:$25 odds: $2.20 r9 / b3: franklin - most goals for the round bet: $20 odds: $4.00 bets placed fri 650pm
I tried to place a swans 37+ lead bet just b4 the bounce, but just saw bet was not confirmed. 3 bets are on for now
gday guys, just logged in after leaving the club house to post my bets for tonight and I se that all the bets I listed at about 2am Saturday have disappeared. so I will now repost my bets with a smile as the ghost deleted mt previous post. r9 / b4: hawthorn -73.5 bet: $25 odds: 1.92 r9 / b5: Melbourne +.15.5 bet: $25 odds: 1.92 r9 / b6: gws 1-39 bet: $25 odds: $2.30 r9 / b7: Richmond ht/ft double bet: $25 odds: 42.40 r9 / b8: fremantle ht/ft double bet: $25 odds: $1.60 r9 / b9: Collingwood bet: $50 odds: $2.05 r9 / b10: geelong +17.5 bet: $25 odds: $1.92 r9 / b11: Brisbane 1-39 bet: $25 odds: $2.25 r9 / b12: 6 leg multi all to win hawthorn gws Richmond fremantle Brisbane Collingwood bet: $60 odds: $12.07 r9 / b13: ridiculous 8 leg multi hawks -73.5 Melbourne +15.5 gws 1-39 Richmond fremantle ht/ft Brisbane 1-39 Collingwood geelong +17.5 bet: $10 odds: $216.25 now, all these bets were placed at sat 1-2am and posted just b4 2:30am. I have no idea why they were deleted or removed. I am jacked off that I have to waste my time doing this again. apologies to those followers that seem to think I left you hanging.
right, after re-writing previous post (again), i'll need to inform you that I placed a footy quad today. seeing as the dogs have killed the bet, i'll inform you of what my selections were. round 9 / bet 14 footy quad. gws 1-48 vs dogs ess 1-12 & rich 13-60 adel 1-12 & freo 1-60 coll 13-60 & draw bet: $72 10% stake if wins
just posting my fresh bets round 9 / bet 15: 2 leg multi Richmond & fremantle to win bet: $100 odds: $2.32 bet placed 640pm
3 in a row for the tiges, but more importantly a profitable night on the punt last night with the Richmond / freo double hitting. on a supercoach note, you would of been wrapped if you had Fyfe and Dangerfield in your team. getting back to the punt and I thought I might throw up some more bets. round 9 / bet 16: Brisbane / Collingwood - 2 leg win multi bet: $60 odds: $3.24 r9 / b17: 3 leg multi Brisbane 1-39 Collingwood 1-39 geelong 1-39 bet: $10 odds: 20.65 r9 / b18: pendelbury to get 30+ possessions bet: $20 odds: $2.00 bets placed sunday 10:50am
forgot to post the other bet today. round 9 / bet 19: Collingwood ht/ft double bet: $30 odds: $2.80 bet placed 10:50 sunday
Round 9 Summary. I actually don't know if I am unhappy or content. When you look at this weeks numbers below, you might probably understand. 19 bets for only 5 wins. Half of me feels grateful for only losing $112.50 for the week. In fact, if I didn't place a bet on Sunday, I would have profited for the week. Round 9 started well on Friday night. I didn't have a match bet. Instead I had a couple of bets on Buddy and the other on Mitchell. Buddy made me $105 profit. On Saturday, Hawthorn once again proved a stumbling block for me along with Melbourne, who appear to have now played Port into form. the bulldogs found some form against everyone's favourite team in the GWS. Those 3 bets all went against me and cost me a quarter each. Saturday night came and eyes were glued to the tv to see if the Tigers could maintain recent good form. That they did and the bet wins. The joy was somewhat overshadowed by my Freo bet losing as I had them leading at the main change. Still, it was a good night, two bets had for a profit with a Richmond win as the kicker. Sunday didn't go to plan and was opposite to last Sunday's feat. I had 5 bets on the Sunday games of which 4 lost. The only bet that won on Sunday was the bet of the round. The Pies came from left field and went bangedy, bang, bang!. in the third quarter. Nine in a row - even pies supporters I know were astonished at this. We might hate Collingwood, but on the punt they have been somewhat kind to me. So that was the week. Percentage wise, my numbers were deplorable. It has pretty much reflected the year I have had to date. Round 10 couldn't come soon enough as I am hungry to get back to the winners circle. The numbers are below. Bets: 19 ...Won (5) Lost (14) Profit/Loss for round: Loss ( $112.50) Round Turnover: $647 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 113 - Won (29) Lost (84) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($2,595.54) Total turnover: $7,443
Round 10 Selections Welcome back to see me attempt to make a buck on the punt while I try and fix my super coach team at the same time. Where do I focus my attention this week. The punt is going shit house and the super coach score this week will be shit. Out are Watson, Rockliff, Krakouer, Clark & Bontempelli. Ok, as for the punt, I'm looking for a ping pong result. Players of Baccarat will know where I am coming from. The round kicks off out west, where Fremantle $1.19 play Richmond $4.90. Line is 30.5. All the money is coming for the purple train and so it should. All biased aside, my initial thoughts here are the Tigers at the line. Logic is that Freo won't get to a score of 100 and Richmond will score 70. Saturday kicks off with Carlton $4.25 vs Adelaide $1.24. Line is 28.5. Now the Blues are going nowhere. They have a Judd coming back in which is great, but the inclusion of Murphy is a waste of a trade. Adelaide too strong here and them at the line is where you will collect money. Gold Coast $11.00 vs Sydney $1.05. Line is 54.5. More grog troubles at the Gold Coast with Jack Martin the latest to be omitted. In states Hamstring but that is total porky pies. Punting wise, the $1.50 for Buddy to kick the most goals for the game is just giving money away, jump on. Saturday night starts with Essendon $2.05 vs Geelong $1.80. Line is 3.5. This game has a false favourite. The Bombers will win this. Without looking at the stats, I don't believe many teams win after coming back from Perth, whether or not they have won or lost that game. The $2.60 for Essendon 1-39 is very good value on what should be a game decided by less than four goals. Port $1.23 vs Bulldogs $4.25. Line is 28.5. I hate to say it but the Demons have played Port into form. The Power now remember what it's like to win again and will win back to back. On the punt, you should take Port at the line. Sunday kicks off with GWS $1.10 vs Brisbane $7.00. Line is 46.5. GWS should account for a poor Brisbane this year but it won't be a flogging. I actually like the $2.75 for the 1-39 market for GWS. The other solid bet here is Brisbane at the line. North $2.15 vs WCE $1.70 will be a thriller. Line is 6.5. We keep saying that the Eagles have not played good opposition. Who cares, they keep winning!. They will win this also. I agree with the bookies that it will be a close game and the $2.30 for the Eagles 1-39 market is fair odds for the favourite in this game. St.Kilda $12.00 vs Hawthorn $1.03. Line is 56.5. Hawthorn will win this game but where do we look for value? At the same time, you have to be careful not to be stung by a lacklustre Hawthorn who have rarely won at the line this year. My initial thoughts on this game are the Saints at the line. The round closes off on Monday with Melbourne $3.75 vs Collingwood $1.27. Line is 24.5. Now, the Dees get super pumped for this game every year but I don't think if they played with an extra man on the field, they could win this game. To find value on the punt in this game, I like Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.05. So that's my initial thoughts for this rounds betting. My bet of the round goes to Port. I like the $1.92 for them to win at the -28.5. I will be betting progressively during the round, and I hope I've picked a winner for you punters out there. I should be posting my first selections about 6-6:30 tonight. See you in 17 hours.
Round 10 betting commences: round 10 / bet 1:Richmond +30.5 bet:$35 odds: 1.92 r10 / bet 2:ridiculous 9 leg multi Richmond 1-39 Adelaide 1- 39 Sydney 40+ Essendon 1-39 port Adelaide win gws 1-39 wce 1-39 hawthorn win Collingwood 1-39 bet: $10 odds: 636.11 r10 / bet 3: 9 leg multi fremantle Adelaide Sydney Essendon port gws wce hawthorn Collingwood bet: $15 odds: 10.14 r10 / b4: wce 1-39 bet: $40 odds: 2.25 r10 / b5: Essendon 1-39 bet: $40 odds: 2.55 r10 / b6: gws 1-39 bet: $20 odds: $2.75 r10 / bet 7: port Adelaide -28.5 bet: $40 odds: 1.92 r10 / b8: Adelaide -24.5 bet: $35 odds: 1.92 r10 / b9: Collingwood 1-39 bet: $35 odds: 2.05 r10 / b10: 9 leg multi Richmond +30.5 Adelaide -24.4 Sydney 40+ Essendon 1-39 port -28.5 gws 1-39 wce 1-39 hawthorn Collingwood 1-39 bet: $15 odds: 294.75 r10 / b11: 4 leg multi Adelaide -24.5 Essendon 1-39 wce 1-39 Collingwood bet: $25 odds: 13.99 r10 / b12: Richmond 1-39 bet: $10 odds: 5.40 r10 / b13: footy quad Essendon 1-48 vs geelong nth 1-24, wce 1-36 & draw port 25+ vs bulldogs Collingwood 13+ vs Melbourne bet: $100 13.89% stake when ticket wins all bets placed within last hour
now that the bourbon has settled, I can post a bet I had before the bounce last night. round 10 / bet 14: franklin leading goal kicker for round bet: $25 odds: 4.00
I had a multi that failed last night when the favourite lost. I actually have a gut feel that the rest of the legs will get up. So in saying that, I should post that 8 leg multi. round 10 / bet 15: 8 leg multi Adelaide / Essendon / Sydney / port / gws / wce / hawthorn / colingwood bet: $35 odds: 8.31 r10 / bet 16: buddy to kick most goals in gc vs syd game bet: $50 odds: 1.50 bet placed sat 11am
r10 / bet 18:hawthorn -67.5 bet: $185 odds: 2.10 bet placed 3/4 time. thumping headache has arrived. goal after siren has fucked me over. terrible last 2 results for me. maybe I need a bye next week. where are the pain killers?
tilt betting at it's finest..... round 10 / bet 19: Collingwood -12.5 half time bet: $200 odds:1.90 placed just b4 the bounce round 10 / bet 20: total game score >211.5 bet:$300 odds: 1.85 placed 1/2 time
can we start next round tomorrow? gees I copped a slap in this round. looks like it's 2 minute noodles this week
Round 10 summary. What a great start to the round it was. Watching Freo lose to the Tiges was a sign of good things to come. How wrong that last statement is! Yes, the round did start well with the Tigers line bet saluting. I then had to wait 24 hours before my next winning ticket. In that time frame,4 games were played and it was my bet of the round getting up. Thank you Port Power in putting some money back in my pocket. Carlton put up a stronger fight than I thought and Buddy didn't fire on the scoreboard against a lack lustre Gold Coast. I found it amusing that the bet I had on Buddy to be the Swans leading goal kicker paid 75 cents in the dollar. Sunday started off well with the GWS margin bet winning, even though it was my smallest head to head bet for the week. Then disaster struck. After getting frustrated with the outlook of having another non profitable week, I decided to ante up. The North / WCE was in my sights. I liked WCE from the outset and I decided to put $130 there. Last 1/4 and a 40km tail wind, they should have done the job. Someone forgot to tell North my punting game plan. Bet loses. I then focus my attention on the Hawks vs Saints game. It appeared to me that the old Hawthorn was back, the one that enjoyed putting sides away. Seeing as I was tilt betting, I thought wisely enough that they would win by more than 67 points. I was smiling as they put another goal through to lead by 82 points with 4:30 left on the clock. $185 x $2.10 was a good fight back. Hang On!!!! Saints kick 3 goals in 5 minutes. WTF!!!! Goal after siren!!! Fuck Me! Sitting back on the Sofa, I was wondering was it time to toss a coin. I can't remember such a terrible run on the punt in the last 5 years. It left me with one game left and it was my trust in the Magpies. As the tilt mode had not expired, I decided to ante up on the Pies. The $200 half time -12.5 bet wins. You ripper. Then looking at the way the game was being played, I plonked $300 on the game score being greater than 211.5. 124 points at half time and the line was in my favour. 176 points at 3/4 time and the line was very much in my favour. All I now needed was 36 points in the last. Well the punting gods didn't see the script or my sportbet account and both teams decided to play a scrappy last quarter. Bet loses. Now it's not AFL but I have to share this next story and you will see why. I had to take my anger out on the NRL game between EEls vs Cowboys. I took the Cowboys, who were favourites in the 1-12 margin @ $2.90. I placed $250 on this bet. Half time and the EEls lead 24-6. My horror run continues. With 20 minutes to go, I think the score was EEls 30-6. I then turned the game off as it was dead money I was looking at. An hour later, I log into my account to see how I went with my tipping and my eyes popped out of my head. The balance wasn't what I expected. The Cowboys won!. WTF !. So that was my week peoples. The NRL has again this year been somewhat kind to me, which is somewhat covering my AFL loss year to date. Anyway, the joy's and pitfalls of being a punter. I look forward in posting my selections Thursday night, where once again the astute punter can bet opposite to me. Good Luck to those that punt and the numbers are below: Bets: 20 ...Won (6) Lost (14) Profit/Loss for round: Loss ( $602.75) Round Turnover: $1,345 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 133 - Won (35) Lost (98) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($3,198.29) Total turnover: $8,788 I'm a glutton for punishment though and once again all multi's failed. There must be something in my bloodstream that seems to think that the 9 leg multi is there to be won.
Round 11 selections. Welcome back ladies and gentlemen. This week is all about the 'F' word. FAVOURITES! Yes, that's right, FAVOURITES. I'm not talking about chocolates, it's the bookies variety - FOOTY FAVOURITES. This will be the week that the bookies give back to the punter. The bookies have had a very good run this year on the AFL and it's time they gave something back to the punter. We have the start of the bye rounds and that means 6 games this week. This is great for me as I only need to tip 6 winners to tip the card. Some might say that if only 2 matches were played, that I would still screw my multi up. Anyway we start on Friday night with Port Adelaide $1.48 vs Geelong $2.70. Line is 14.5. Both teams had very good wins last week and looked buoyed to keep that winning form. I believe the Port machine is now awake and will post their third consecutive win. Port should cover their line and another option may be to take them for the HT / FT double which is currently at $1.85. Gold Coast $10.00 play Fremantle $1.06 at home. Line is 43.5. The little league have been recalled to fill the gaps in the GC line up and this should turn out to be a training session for the purple machine. Ross Lyon gave credit where it was due last week and it will be his teams turn to kick a bag of goals in the first quarter. To find value in this game, look no further than the line in Freo's favour. They should and will smash the Gold Coast by well over 10 goals. West Coast $1.17 vs Essendon $5.25. Line is 36.5. I seriously think the bookies want to give some money back to the punters. Stand next to the collect window after you take WCE at the line here. Essendon are a mess. No forward line structure and the weakest entry into the F50 means the Bombers are going to have a horrible night. North Melbourne $2.70 vs Sydney $1.48. Line is 13.5. Sydney going for 6 in a row and they will get there with some resistance from North. My money will sit on the Swans and there are a number of good value bets that can be had here. If you feel the upset is on, take North 1-39 @ $3.20. If you are with the majority and think the Swans will win, the Swans HT / FT double is paying $1.89. Or it might be easier to take them at the line. My initial thoughts are the Swans at the line. On Sunday, Collingwood $1.60 play GWS $2.35. Line is 10.5. The reason why I like Collingwood on the punt is simple, they kick a lot of goals. They have kicked no less than 54 goals in the last 3 games. They will be too strong at home with GWS playing their first game at the G this year. The Pies outright at $1.60 is good value. For a better return on the dollar, take the Pies 1-39 @ $2.25. The final game is St.Kilda $1.80 vs Melbourne $2.00. Line is 3.5. Bookies say it will be close and that it will be. This will be the hardest favourite to salute but the Saints will do enough to beat a very competitive Melbourne outfit. The cash out feature may be in play here as the previous 5 favourites would have got over the line. For value on the favourite, look at the $2.35 for the Saints 1-39. Another market looking towards is Saints HT / FT double @ $2.30. Well there are my initial thoughts on what will happen this week. F F F F F F F FAVOURITES EVERYWHERE. If you don't tip the card this week, there is something wrong. The bookies are giving back to the punters this week. I will post an initial bet and more will follow at about 6-630tonight. Good luck to your super coach team and best of luck for those on the punt. Round 11 / bet 1: 6 leg multi Port Adelaide Fremantle West Coast Sydney Collingwood St.Kilda bet: $220 odds: 7.82 bet placed fri 1:23am