2015 Crafty's AFL Punt

Discussion in 'AFL' started by Crafty Yarni, Apr 2, 2015.

  1. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 12 summary:

    I'll start by saying that of my initial punting thoughts for the round just played, I had 3 correct selections and 3 incorrect selections.

    I ended up having 15 bets for the round and like my initial selections, there was mixed fortunes. On this occasion, the fortunes were ok as I posted a profit for the round, which has been a rarity this year.

    The week started off well with profits on the Hawthorn and West Coast wins. The West Coast game held my close interest as close to $500 was bet on this game with most of the money being live bets on the game score.

    Carlton winning was great to start off my footy quad but it killed my 1-39 port bet. Maybe I should have taken the Blues at the line as were my initial thoughts.

    The bet on the GWS/North game went to plan and unfortunately the bet of the week failed. That bet was the Lions at the line against the Bulldogs. The Doggies dominant performance also killed the footy quad as I didn't have them winning by so much.

    The last game of he round was where I had $220 in bets before the bounce. As I wasn't aware of the score, I first found out the score at 3/4 time. It was then I placed a live bet on the Dees to win by 19 or more against the Cats. All up, 4 bets in that game for two hits and misses.

    Now for the footy quad dividend. I missed by two legs and it was the last leg that has given someone an early Christmas present. It paid just over $100,000.00. Yep, that much. 10 times what division 2 is in lotto. This is the reason why so many of us play the quad.

    So another bye week goes bye and surprisingly, I posted a profitable week. I won't get too exited until I start posting continuous weekly profits.

    See you on Thursday and the numbers are below:

    Bets: 15 ...Won (7) Lost (8)

    Profit/Loss for round: Profit $87.37

    Round Turnover: $1,170


    Year to Date Figures:

    Bets: 161 - Won (47) Lost (114)

    Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($3,411.42)

    Total turnover: $11,618



     
  2. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 13 selections.

    As I need to prepare my super coach and virtual sports dream team. I will only comment on tonight's game now and the balance of the post will be completed while I watch the game

    Another Thursday night game and boy what a blockbuster it will be. You know by now that I am a big fan of the way Collingwood play their football - THEY KICK GOALS AND LOTS OF THEM!

    If you want to watch a tightly contested defensive game, switch codes to soccer and watch a 1-1 draw.

    Is it possible for the Dockers to lose two games in a row at home? I believe it is and I think Collingwood can pull off the upset.

    Fremantle won their last battle at home against the Pies which was in 2013. On two prior occasions, the Pies have won at Subiaco. History in my opinion counts for little but I do know that Collingwood play very well interstate and their win/loss record interstate is very good.

    As for the markets, Freo $1.34 vs Collingwood $3.35. Line is 23.5. Collingwood has firmed from $4.25, Freo eased from $1.23 and the line has moved in from 26.5. All this happened in the last 24 hours.

    My punting thoughts are that you will get a very good run for your money with Collingwood at the line. I believe Collingwood will score at least 60 points and I believe Fremantle won't score 85.

    I may bet live during the game tonight depending on what markets might seem attractive.

    Good luck to the punters out there and I will post balance of selections by games end.

    Initial bet below.


    Pending bet 1
    25/06/15
    18:07  Fremantle v Collingwood
    Line
    Collingwood (+23.5) @ 1.92 1h 25m 1.92 $60.00 -

     
  3. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 13 selections Part 2.

    Well how was I supposed to write my little blog while watching that cracker of a game. It's scary to think that I was on the money with the logic on my original bet. More on that in the summary at the end of the week.

    We now continue with Friday night where Sydney $1.28 play at home against Richmond $3.75. Line is 25.5. Without showing any bias here, Sydney should win this game at home. I believe it will be a tussle and the winning margin for the Swans should be less than 40 points which is paying $2.10. Another bet I like is Richmond at the line.

    On Saturday, Hawthorn $1.08 play Essendon $8.50. Line is 48.5. One thing about Hawthorn this year is that they have confused me to no end. Just when you think they will crush a team, they put in a mediocre performance. Having said that, they have won 6 of their 10 games tis year by more than 40 points.

    Essendon on the other hand are a team which is struggling to get the ball in their forward 50. My initial punting thoughts are, once again, a convincing Hawthorn win. The Hawks are paying $1.55 for a 40+ point win. If you think the Hawks will win by 10 goals or more, $2.40 is the current odd. My initial punting thoughts are to find the value and take the Hawks 60+.

    Saturday afternoon at the Gabba its Brisbane $3.70 vs Adelaide $1.29. Line is 24.5. If it stays dry, it should be the Adelaide midfield that will dominate and feed their forwards 'a plenty. I actually like the Adelaide line bet here as I believe Brisbane won't score more than 65 points. On the flip side, Brisbane has let through more than 100 points on 6 occasions this year.

    Saturday night it's the Saints $2.65 vs Bulldogs $1.50. Line is 14.5. The Bulldogs played very good football last week and the bookies feel they are a good thing again this week. It's hard to bet against them but I think the Saints at the line is a good bet. Would not surprise at all that big Nick might be the deciding factor on the winning team here. I'll back him in for a big one.

    The round closes off with Carlton $1.45 vs Gold Coast $2.75. Line is 14.5. The new revised version of Carlton is here. Bye Bye Malthouse and hello 'Hungry Blues'. Don't get distracted bye all this ' will he / won't he play. Even if Ablett played, the Gold Coast would still lose. Gibbs and Walker will be losses but a new breed of Carlton will do enough to win. For punting purposes, my initial thoughts are Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20.

    For what it's worth, the bet of the round is Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20.

    I will place my bets from tomorrow. See you then and Goodluck!
     
  4. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Sorry for the lateness, went to tab to place quaddy after work and had house matters to attend to before placing bets.

    as for the bets placed, they are varied on tonight's game and it would be nice if it's a 6 goal + first term.

    good luck punters and lets see if we can all profit this week.

    round 13 / bet 2: footy quad

    hawthorn 25+ vs Essendon
    Adelaide 13-72 vs Brisbane
    stkilda 1-36 & bulldogs 1-36 & draw
    carlton 1-48 & gcoast 1-12 & draw

    bet $84
    10% stake


    Pending bet 3

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Total Goals - 1st Qtr O/U
    Over (5.5) @ 1.72 41m 1.72 $50.00 - 


    Pending bet 4

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Half Time Line
    Richmond (+10.5) @ 1.90 41m 1.90 $10.00 -


    Pending bet 5

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Line
    Richmond (+21.5) @ 1.92 41m 1.92 $15.00 - 


    Pending bet 6

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Points
    Richmond (+17.5) @ 2.10 41m 2.10 $15.00 - 


    Pending bet 7

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Tri Bet
    Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ 2.90 41m 2.90 $10.00 - 




     
  5. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    The Tigers came from left field and played a brilliant game of footy in the second half. Pats on back Tigers.

    It's a pity though that my punting skills at half time were shithouse. I played a $100 total points bet which took the gloss of my Tigers celebration.

    A summary of my bets on tonight's game is below.


    Lose

    26/06/15
    21:16  Sydney v Richmond
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (158.5) @ 1.85 26/06/15 1.85 $100.00 $0.00 




    Win

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Line
    Richmond (+21.5) @ 1.92 26/06/15 1.92 $15.00 $28.80 




    Win

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Points
    Richmond (+17.5) @ 2.10 26/06/15 2.10 $15.00 $31.50 




    Lose

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Tri Bet
    Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ 2.90 26/06/15 2.90 $10.00 $0.00 




    Lose

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Total Goals - 1st Qtr O/U
    Over (5.5) @ 1.72 26/06/15 1.72 $50.00 $0.00 




    Lose

    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Half Time Line
    Richmond (+10.5) @ 1.90 26/06/15 1.90 $10.00 $0.00
     
  6. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    bet 8

    40 on the hawks qtr line -11.5 odds 1.80
    Bet placed on phone
     
  7. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Good evening followers.

    I am back online after the laptop was resuscitated. I apologise to all that were sitting on the edge of their seat, waiting for my selections, so they could bet opposite to me.

    In this post I will inform you of the additional bets I had after the initial bet on the Hawks vs Bombers Game.


    Lose bet 9

    27/06/15
    14:59 ? Hawthorn v Essendon
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (164.5) @ 1.85 27/06/15 1.85 $100.00 $0.00

    Win bet 10

    27/06/15
    15:29 ? Brisbane v Adelaide
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.20 27/06/15 2.20 $120.00 $264.00

    Cashed Out bet 11

    27/06/15
    19:15 ? St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    St Kilda 1-39 @ 3.20 27/06/15 3.20 $50.00 $18.13

    Win bet 12

    28/06/15
    15:19 ? Carlton v Gold Coast
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Carlton 1-39 @ 2.20 28/06/15 2.20 $85.00 $187.00
     
  8. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 13 Summary.

    From a punting perspective, 5 of the 6 head to head favourites won. Frome a line betting perspective, 5 of the successful line results went to the underdog.
    Interestingly, as has been the case throughout this year to date, the line has favoured the underdog in a majority of the rounds played.

    My betting started off on a good note when I backed the underdog Collingwood in a line bet. A $55 profit was a good way to start the week once again. The team I follow, in Richmond did my head in. Up to half time they played like the Noble Park reserves. Mind you, it was brilliant watching the second half and watching a rare fight back and win. The half time $100 bet that lost, somewhat took the gloss off a good with by the Tiges.

    I ended up losing $140 on this game. On a side note, Richmond has given Port Adelaide a leg up next week with the billion dollar forward line being suspended for acting in a manner that isn't condoned in today's game.

    While on the golf course, I realised I forgot to place a bet on the Hawks game the night before. I was unsure on the line betting scenario and placed an initial teaser bet, which was the Hawks leading by 2 goals at qtr time. That failed and I was waiting to find another bet. Once again, it was a total points bet and once again I backed the unders.

    I wasn't watching the first half and I put a bet on based on probability that the second half scoring would mirror the first half. That wasn't to be and I burnt another $140 on this game. It was the first leg of the quaddie and I'm still alive.

    I ended up having a win in the Bris /Adelaide game with the one bet I had on the Crows 1-39. The profit of $144 was a way to eliminate the loss from the previous game. At 3 qtr time, this bet also looked dead in the water before the Crows lifted in the last to turn a 24 point deficit to a 13 point win. Two legs down in the quaddie and I'm still alive.

    The game of the round for me was the scrappy defensive Saints /Bulldogs game. I only had the one bet on this game which was the Saints 1-39. Half way through the last quarter I thought the Saints were gone and I ended up cashing out this bet for a $32 loss instead of losing the whole $50. I was nearly made to look like a fool as St.Kilda fought hard to get back to a goal down with 2m30s left on the clock. As I had the draw in my footy quad, I was cheering and yelling at the box to get scores level. Alas it wasn't to be and a good win by the Bulldogs. The quad is still alive.

    Now for the Blues game. After doing a quick count of where I was at with the AFL punt, I placed $85 on the Blues to win between 1-39 and to profit a hundred on the game. I also looked at the dividends for the live legs I had in the quad that impacted my game bet.

    Final siren and I haven't been shafted for a change. I hit the footy quad for the first time this year along with the multitude of punters that had the same selections. The quad paid $1,800, which was only $98,000 less compared to last week!

    At the end of the week, I end up making a profit. First time this year I have had back to back profit weeks. It wasn't a large win, but a win none the less. I just need to keep chipping away at my initial losses and hopefully hit a half decent collect and make a dint in the losses in the first half of the year.

    I ended up squaring the ledger with bets this week with a 6/6 win/loss result.

    Next week we go back to a full round of games and with any luck I can continue my current form and profit again next week.

    Well done to the winners out there and I'll see you next Wednesday or Thursday.

    The numbers are below.



    Bets: 12 ...Won (6) Lost (6)

    Profit/Loss for round: Profit $86.08

    Round Turnover: $739


    Year to Date Figures:

    Bets: 173 - Won (53) Lost (120)

    Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($3,325.34)

    Total turnover: $12,357
    ....................................................................................................................................................................................

    I am doing something a little different. I will place all my bets for the week in the summary post to make it easier to laugh at my bets or admire my craziness.

    Win
    Footy Quad outlay $84 collect $180.45 (10% stake)

    Win
    28/06/15
    15:19  Carlton v Gold Coast
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Carlton 1-39 @ 2.20 28/06/15 2.20 $85.00 $187.00 


    Cashed Out
    27/06/15
    19:15  St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    St Kilda 1-39 @ 3.20 27/06/15 3.20 $50.00 $18.13 


    Win
    27/06/15
    15:29  Brisbane v Adelaide
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.20 27/06/15 2.20 $120.00 $264.00 


    Lose
    27/06/15
    14:59  Hawthorn v Essendon
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (164.5) @ 1.85 27/06/15 1.85 $100.00 $0.00 


    Lose
    27/06/15
    13:29  Hawthorn v Essendon
    Quarter Time Line
    Hawthorn (-11.5) @ 1.80 27/06/15 1.80 $40.00 $0.00 


    Lose
    26/06/15
    21:16  Sydney v Richmond
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (158.5) @ 1.85 26/06/15 1.85 $100.00 $0.00 


    Win
    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Line
    Richmond (+21.5) @ 1.92 26/06/15 1.92 $15.00 $28.80 


    Win
    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Points
    Richmond (+17.5) @ 2.10 26/06/15 2.10 $15.00 $31.50 


    Lose
    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Tri Bet
    Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ 2.90 26/06/15 2.90 $10.00 $0.00 


    Lose
    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Total Goals - 1st Qtr O/U
    Over (5.5) @ 1.72 26/06/15 1.72 $50.00 $0.00 


    Lose
    26/06/15
    19:06  Sydney v Richmond
    Half Time Line
    Richmond (+10.5) @ 1.90 26/06/15 1.90 $10.00 $0.00 


    Win
    25/06/15
    18:07  Fremantle v Collingwood
    Line
    Collingwood (+23.5) @ 1.92 25/06/15 1.92 $60.00 $115.20
     
  9. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 14 Selections - Part 1.

    Welcome back and once again we start the round off with a Thursday night clash. This isn't a game for the people anymore, it is all about television rights. The more televised games, means more marketing for the gambling outlets.

    Now, I consider myself as someone who enjoys the punt on the AFL. It gives me an adrenalin rush and gets me to watch games that I otherwise wouldn't. Having said all this, even as a punter, I am sick and tired of having gambling commercials forced down our throat.

    Now to get back on track. Thursday sees Sydney $1.50 against Port Adelaide $2.65. The line is currently @ 12.5.

    Last week the Swans played a terrible second half which made Richmond look really good. Port on the other hand have had a week's bye to think about the terrible brand of football they played against Carlton.

    This game confuses me a bit. The Swans have lost two thirds of their forward line and have not replaced Buddy and Tippett with anyone worth writing about. Port have the same players as last year, but this year seems to be working differently for the Power.

    If I had to put the mortgage on this game, I would put it on the Swans. At the same time, this is the first game of the round and there are 8 games following this, - hence no need to do something foolish and place a large bet prior to the game. As I say, there is always the chance of live betting.

    To get some value out of every bet is a goal of mine. This game has value on both sides of the ledger. One thing I do believe is that the winning margin for either team will be less than 40 points.

    The Swans @ $2.15 for the 1-39 margin seems good value. So does the $3.10 for Port in the same bracket.

    For now, my initial thoughts are the Swans 1-39. To avoid me having a change of mind, I will put the above bet on after posting.

    My thoughts on the remainder of the round will be completed Friday 6ish as I have a function to attend to tomorrow night after work and I won't have a chance to post part two then.

    I'll keep saying it - Good luck to the punters out there.

    See you Friday

    Initial bet below


    Pending BET 1

    01/07/15
    23:55  Sydney v Port Adelaide
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Sydney 1-39 @ 2.15 19h 23m 2.15 $50.00 -
     
  10. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 14 Selections - Part 2.

    I need to start off by saying that the news of the murder of Phil Walsh is horrific and my condolences go to all family members, friends and to all football supporters.

    Friday night football at the MCG has Collingwood $3.50 playing Hawthorn $1.32. The line is 23.5. Hawthorn have the wood over the Pies having won their past 5 encounters by a winning margin just a tad over 5 goals.

    I believe Hawthorn will do just enough to win the game but it won't be enough to cover their line. My initial bet will be the Pies at the line and hopefully there are no surprises to force my hand at live betting.

    On Saturday Richmond $1.20 vs GWS $4.95. Line is 32.5. Richmond should win this game and with any luck, should also cover the line

    Gold Coast $3.90 vs Nth Melbourne $1.27. Line is 26.5. North should do enough to win the game and I also believe they can cover the line.

    Bulldogs $1.44 vs Carlton $2.85. Line is 16.5. I'm tipping an upset here. The safer bet here is the Blues at the line.

    Melbourne $4.30 vs WCE $1.23. Line is 29.5. WCE should win the game and an interesting stat this year is the Eagles have scored twice as many goals after half time compared to their opponent. I like the Eagles here 40+ @$2.40

    On Sunday, Essendon $1.68 vs St.Kilda $2.20. Line is 5.5. The last time I said the bookies are giving money away as they had the favourite wrong, I lost my bet and the bookies favourite smashed the opposition. I'm doing it again. The bookies have it wrong here. the Saints 1-40 @ $2.70 is a good bet

    Fremantle $1.03 vs Brisbane $14.00. Line is 56.5. Can the Dockers return to their crushing football from the start of the season. I think they can. The Dockers line should be a collect for punters.

    sorry for the quick post as time has got the better of me and I have to focus on my supercoach and other game formats.

    Good Luck punters.
     
  11. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Pending BET 2

    03/07/15
    19:03 ? Collingwood v Hawthorn
    Line
    Collingwood (+23.5) @ 1.92 08m 09s 1.92 $50.00 -


    Pending BET 3

    03/07/15
    20:03 ? Collingwood v Hawthorn
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (188.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $50.00 -
     
  12. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Bet 4

    Richmond 1-39

    $50 bet
    Odds 2.25

    Placed on phone
     
  13. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Good Morning Followers.

    I'll be honest and say that the death of Phil Walsh has had some impact on my betting enjoyment on the AFL.

    I was on the golf course on Saturday, as normal and I placed a bet on the Tigers to win in the 1-39 bracket. After golf I got stuck into a couple of bevvies and the bourbon wasn't tasting nice with GWS staying in front for most of the game.

    Now for the life of me, I then made a spineless decision. Ten minutes in the last quarter with Richmond still trailing by two points, I decided to cash out my $50 bet.

    Yep, stupid!!!!

    In my defence, I am ivolved in a punters club at the golf club and it was my turn to bet the $100 and I had $80 on the tigers in the 1-39 bracket @ $2.25. I cashed out my bet, hoping (for a better word) that it would backfire and bring the punters club some glory. That it did, so the decision could be seen as taking one for the team.

    Just to prove my mind was elsewhere this week, on Thursday the lovely wife celebrated another birthday and after blowing up 50 helium balloons, I forgot to trade Kennedy in my supercoach team before they played on Thursday night. Of course, Kennedy kills it and I'm on the back foot early.

    So after the Richmond spineless cash out, I was contemplating to put $100 on the Kangas 1-39. Funny how the punting world works as an inspired Gold Coast led by the master in Gary Ablett, destroy North and we are all now working out when to get him in at the expense of others in our team.

    So I would have lost $100. Another reason to be stale about punting this round. I didn't bet on the next two games which were WBD vs Carlton and Melb vs WCE. I would of had $50 on the Blues 1-39 and $50 on WCE 40+. It would have been 1-1 and a profit of about a $20 profit.

    Today at a current time of 12:13pm aest, I am in the mood to have a bet on the Sunday games. Knowing how somewhat superstitious I am, I will probably end up making a loss on Sunday. I will however still go forward and place a couple of bets to see if I can maintain the current profit position for the round.

    Below I will post the transcript from my account about current bets this week.



    Cashed Out
    04/07/15
    12:48  Richmond v Greater Western Sydney
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Richmond 1-39 @ 2.25 04/07/15 2.25 $50.00 $50.87

    Lose
    03/07/15
    20:03  Collingwood v Hawthorn
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (188.5) @ 1.85 03/07/15 1.85 $50.00 $0.00 


    Win
    03/07/15
    19:03  Collingwood v Hawthorn
    Line
    Collingwood (+23.5) @ 1.92 03/07/15 1.92 $50.00 $96.00

    Win
    01/07/15
    23:55  Sydney v Port Adelaide
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Sydney 1-39 @ 2.15 02/07/15 2.15 $50.00 $107.50

     
  14. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 14 selection continued.

    Can I continue to remain in profit this week? I'll find out by 7:30 tonight


    Pending Bet 5

    05/07/15
    12:43 ? Essendon v St Kilda
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    St Kilda 1-39 @ 2.70 23m 2.70 $50.00 -
     
  15. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    I had an afternoon nap and woke up to find I had morning in my eye. The laptop said St.Kilda won by 110!!!

    Did Plugger make a return? My oh my Essendon.

    Anyway as I keep watching this game, I am waiting for the right time to back Freo. The longer I keep watching, the more likely the upset.

    Anyway, I've been tracking the total game points and I've placed a live bet on this market. Let's hope the last quarter reflects the previous three.


    Pending BET 6

    05/07/15
    18:29 ? Fremantle v Brisbane
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (123.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $200.00 -
     
  16. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 14 Summary.

    As has been mentioned by another writer or two and my many member posts, I feel numb in adding any satire or otherwise to this post due to the murder of Phil Walsh, the coach of the Adelaide Crows.

    He was a man that served as a player and coach at a number of clubs and it was his passion to succeed as a prominent AFL coach to which he succeeded.. He impacted the lives of so many players and the AFL will be weaker without the passion of this great man.

    As for my punting this round, I rolled the dice on my last bet. Without it and I break square for the round, which in hindsight should have been the end and fair result.

    As stated in a previous post, I acted foolishly by cashing out the Richmond bet which cost be $60 odd profit. The positives I draw from this action is that I would have lost on bets in the Bulldogs/Carlton game and the GC vs North games if I placed bets.

    My week was summed up by the last bet. It was pretty much double up or cop the loss of the bet.

    Fremantle were in a tight struggle and scoring was low. Half way through the last quarter I place a total points bet under 123.5. Things looked good at three quarter time.

    Once I passed comment hoping for the last quarter to reflect the previous three quarters, I knew I shot myself in the foot. Last quarter and goals galore. I was resigned the bet was lost when 3 goals were kicked in the first 6 minutes.

    I don't have more to add and apologies I write a day late due to work commitments.

    RIP Phil Walsh.

    Round Summary:

    Bets: 6 ...Won (3) Lost (3)

    Profit/Loss for round: Loss ($195.63)

    Round Turnover: $450


    Year to Date Figures:

    Bets: 179 - Won (56) Lost (123)

    Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($3,520.97)

    Total turnover: $12,357

    .................................................................................................................................................................................


    Lose BET 6

    05/07/15
    18:29  Fremantle v Brisbane
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (123.5) @ 1.85 05/07/15 1.85 $200.00 $0.00 


    Lose BET 5

    05/07/15
    12:43  Essendon v St Kilda
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    St Kilda 1-39 @ 2.70 05/07/15 2.70 $50.00 $0.00 


    Cashed Out BET 4

    04/07/15
    12:48  Richmond v Greater Western Sydney
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Richmond 1-39 @ 2.25 04/07/15 2.25 $50.00 $50.87 


    Lose BET 3

    03/07/15
    20:03  Collingwood v Hawthorn
    Total Game Points - Over/Under
    Under (188.5) @ 1.85 03/07/15 1.85 $50.00 $0.00 


    Win BET 2

    03/07/15
    19:03  Collingwood v Hawthorn
    Line
    Collingwood (+23.5) @ 1.92 03/07/15 1.92 $50.00 $96.00 


    Win BET 1

    01/07/15
    23:55  Sydney v Port Adelaide
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Sydney 1-39 @ 2.15 02/07/15 2.15 $50.00 $107.50
     
  17. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 15 Selections.

    G'day out there. I am going to call this round the 'GO WITH YOUR GUT ROUND'

    Hindsight is wonderful and it's good to see I followed my gut instincts in backing QLD in the Origin in the 13+ bracket @ $4.75. No, it's not AFL but it's the NRL bank rolling my AFL debarcle.

    One thing I've realised is that I am time poor for the first time in 3 years. Career change and a few other things have reduced my supercoach & punting analysis considerably.

    Only going to post about the game tonight now and others will follow after a dinner function tonight (hopefully - but worst case at 6pm tomorrow)

    Tonight sees Port Adelaide $1.83 vs Collingwood $2.00. Line is 3.5. My second favourite punting team the underdogs! - I like it. I just checked the radar and it seems it will be a little wet. That eliminates the 40+ winning margin for either team. That leaves me no choice than to 'GO WITH MY GUT' and back the Pies in the 1-39 bracket @ $2.55

    I used to think Port will come good but, I have come to the realisation that this is not their year. Collingwood are a better side and should put the Power away.

    My bet is below and I will attempt to post tonight again after other commitments.

    Good Luck Punters!!


    Pending BET 1

    09/07/15
    18:10  Port Adelaide v Collingwood
    Margin (Big Win - Little Win)
    Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.55 1h 39m 2.55 $60.00 -
     
  18. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Round 15 selections cont.

    Hello followers
    What a fun day in having.

    As at 240pm i have had 15mg of morphene to manage my pain for a workplace injury.

    Due to a steel cylinder that weighs a shitload falling on my left foot, i now have 2 brown toes and they are deciding whether they amputate a toe or somehow save it.

    I am dizzy to the max and will only pay for tonight's game. Remainder will be done after an overnight stay at the hospital.

    Ok. Richmond 1.31 vs Carlton 3.60. Line is 21.5
    Round 15/ bet 2: richmond 1-39

    Bet $80
    Odds : 2.10


    Speak soon and Goodluck punters
     
  19. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    An hour After surgery and i watched the Tigers in the final quarter do enough to beat Carlton. The bet i had on this game was at odds of $2.10.

    On a side note, i have found out that i have had a partial toe amputation and I've been told im required to have a 2 night stay at the northern hospital.

    Let's hope the golf game is further improved with the less weight i am carrying on the left hand side of my body. It's fair to say that i am currently having a spell from golf.

    When i wake tomorrow i will post my opinion and thoughts for the remainder of matches and hopefully this helps you guys make an informed decision on what you do on the punt.

    Have a good night and don't forget

    ' GO with your GUT'
     
  20. Crafty Yarni

    Crafty Yarni Active Member

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    Good afternoon.

    We see the round continue with essendon $2.70 vs melb $1.48. Line is 12.5.

    After the performance of the bombers last week, you would have to pay me to back them this week. They may end up winning in an upset but the smart money should be sitting on the demons. It should be a margin of less than 40 points with the predicted end of the world weather.

    My bet for the above game is:

    R15/b3: melb 1-39

    Bet: $50
    Odds: $1.95

    I've had multiple visitors this morning which has stopped me posting my thoughts on other games. This will be done as soon as i have the time.

    Go dees!
     

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