ROUND 18 SELECTIONS: THE BOO WEEKLY ROUND As an avid and keen golfer, I thought it was appropriate to name this round after one of my favourite golfers ' BOO WEEKLY'. Yep, that's his real name! Sportsbet have re-introduced their 'Cash back up to a $100' promotion. If your selection fails to win, but leads at any of the quarter breaks, it's money back up to a $100 on head to head bets. Friday night and it's the Hawks $1.18 vs Richmond $5.15. Line is 35.5. It's hard to go past the Hawks in this. Finding good value and the certainty of a winning selection seems to be a problem for me this round. Hawks @ $1.18 and for me it's not worth a bet unless a four figure sum is placed. I don't have that confidence here so I hunt for better odds. Hawks 1-39 are $2.35, while the favoured market is 40+ @ $2.00. I do like the Tigers at the line. Sure I do barrack for them, but genuinely think they can stay with the Hawks. A small bet on the Tigers will also be placed, taking advantage of the Sportsbet offer. My prediction will be Hawthorn by 22. Geelong $1.11 vs Brisbane $7.00. Line is 41.5. The Cats want in on the eight action and they won't let Brisbane stop their progression. I like the Cats here. The predicted scattered showered will help keep the losing margin lower for Brisbane supporters. The Cats are $2.45 for the 1-39 bracket and that's where my initial thoughts lie. My prediction is Geelong by 39. Collingwood $1.29 vs Melbourne $3.75. Line is @ 23.5. Can the Pies get their season on track here? I believe they can. Melbourne have no idea how to get the ball forward quickly and they will struggle to kick enough goals to win. I do think Collingwood will cover the line and have punters collect on the $1.92. My prediction is Collingwood by 47 points. Sydney $1.40 vs Adelaide $3.00. Line is @ 17.5. Adelaide are surging. Sydney are lost for the minute. It will be an upset win for Adelaide here. Since being reported in the Richmond game, Franklin has lost the plot and the dynamic small forwards of Betts & Cameron for Adelaide are playing great football. Yep, no politics, just plain, simple good football. My prediction is Adelaide by 20 points. Gold Coast $9.25 vs WCE $1.07. Line is @ 48.5. Did I say 'TANKING'? For a team that was supposed to threaten the eight by some pundits, they have had a year to forget - it happens. WCE will use this game to further increase their percentage. The line was be smashed by WCE here. It wouldn't surprise me if a 100 point win was on the cards here. My selection is WCE by 79 points. Carlton $5.75 vs Nth Melb $1.15. Line is @ 36.5. I think that the Kangas are an express train running for the finals. They should treat Carlton with contempt and show their supporters a solid four quarter effort. I can't see across any lines where the Blues will outplay the Roos. The Roos at the line are $1.92. For a 40+ victory they are $1.99. You pick which bet you like better. My prediction is Nth Melbourne by 69. Sunday games start and hopefully I'm in a profit mode. It starts with the Port Adelaide $1.20 vs St.Kilda $4.70 clash. Line is @ 30.5. No Roo which will make it an uphill battle for the Saints. Port need to win if they have any chance stealing a spot in the eight. I believe at home they will achieve their victory. I can't remember if the Power have played a solid four quarters this year. The Saints will be there at half time but the Power should eventually wake up and come home with a solid win. My prediction is Port Adelaide by 40 points. Essendon $2.95 vs Bulldogs $1.42. Line is @ 16.5. Getting told by Bulldog supporters that the Bombers are their bogey team, will have no bearing on the result here. History counts for little, and the Bulldogs will take fifth spot when they win and if the Tigers lose. No Hurly will make it tougher for the Bombers. I'm undecided at this stage whether I like the Bulldogs at the line more or in the 1-39 bracket @ $2.15. My prediction is Bulldogs by 30 points. Fremantle $1.22 vs GWS $4.50. Line is @ 26.5. The Dockers fans can start making plans for the first week of the finals after they beat the GWS here. Mundy is a suspected late out so it could be a close game. I'm going to roll with the theory Fremantle will do just enough to get the four points. Fremantle are $2.10 for the 1-39 bracket. My prediction is Fremantle by 28 points. So that's what I think will happen this week. I will be dabbling with the multi's again and hopefully I get to snag the big fish this week. Good luck punters and if you know of a good thing, let me know and I'll jump on board. Initial selections in the post to follow.
Round 18 selections: Pending BET 4 31/07/15 18:34 ? Multibet (8 folds) 18h 47m 10.98 $100.00 - all head to head selections - geelong, collingwood, adelaide, nth, wce, port, bulldogs, fremantle Pending BET 3 31/07/15 18:28 ? Hawthorn v Richmond Head to Head Richmond @ 5.15 ? 55m 5.15 $10.00 - ? Pending BET 2 31/07/15 18:28 ? Hawthorn v Richmond Line Richmond (+35.5) @ 1.92 55m 1.92 $80.00 - ? Pending BET 1 31/07/15 18:28 ? Hawthorn v Richmond Winning Margin Spread Richmond 1-19 @ 8.50 55m 8.50 $10.00 -
ROUND 18 SELECTIONS CONTINUED... Pending BET 5 01/08/15 01:36 ? Geelong v Brisbane Big Win Little Win Geelong 1-39 @ 2.45 11h 52m 2.45 $30.00 - ? Pending BET 6 01/08/15 01:36 ? Collingwood v Melbourne Line Collingwood (-23.5) @ 1.92 12h 17m 1.92 $20.00 - ? Pending BET 7 01/08/15 01:36 ? Collingwood v Melbourne Big Win Little Win Collingwood 40+ @ 2.90 12h 17m 2.90 $10.00 - ? Pending BET 8 01/08/15 01:36 ? Sydney v Adelaide Line Adelaide (+17.5) @ 1.92 14h 42m 1.92 $20.00 - ? Pending BET 9 01/08/15 01:36 ? Sydney v Adelaide Big Win Little Win Adelaide 1-39 @ 3.60 14h 42m 3.60 $10.00 - Pending BET 10 01/08/15 01:48 Multibet (Trebles) 11h 50m 4.09 $20.00 geelong, coll -23.5, adel +17.5
round 18 bets continued. Just got home and had the one bet when I was out and that bet is below. wasn't a fan of the $100 multi losing and all my Saturday arvo bets lots before the bet below. I haven't placed any bets on the two nights games tonight but, now that i'm home I can take a look at markets and when I place a bet, I will post immediatley Win BET 11 01/08/15 16:51 ? Sydney v Adelaide Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (196.5) @ 1.85 01/08/15 1.85 $100.00 $185.00
ROUND 18 BETS CONTINUED Pending BET 14 01/08/15 20:50 ? Carlton v North Melbourne Total Game Points - Over/Under Over (176.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $35.00 - ? Pending BET 13 01/08/15 20:49 ? Gold Coast v West Coast Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (171.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $50.00 - ? Pending BET 12 01/08/15 20:46 ? Carlton v North Melbourne Line North Melbourne (-26.5) @ 1.88 Live 1.88 $40.00 -
ROUND 18 BETS CONTINUED I didn't bet on the start in this game, as I had a vibe that a ridiculous result was to the occur. It now appears, Port are doing what most punters are expecting them to do. Let's see if the below bets go to plan. Pending BET 15 02/08/15 14:43 ? Port Adelaide v St Kilda Line Port Adelaide (-47.5) @ 1.88 Live 1.88 $50.00 - ? Pending BET 16 02/08/15 14:42 ? Port Adelaide v St Kilda Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (175.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $50.00
ROUND 18 BETS CONTINUED. Pending BET 18 02/08/15 14:55 ? Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Over (178.5) @ 1.88 24m 1.88 $75.00 - ? Pending BET 17 02/08/15 14:52 ? Essendon v Western Bulldogs Big Win Little Win Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ 2.15 24m 2.15 $50.00 -
ROUND 18 BETS CONTINUED looks like my high scoring game won't eventuate with my 178+ game score. new bet placed on a low scoring game. watch this bit me in the arse. Pending BET 19 02/08/15 15:42 ? Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (147.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $150.00 -
ROUND 18 BETS CONTINUED I went to the garage and got a shovel and I've started digging. i'm trapped in the total points market. chasing my tail. hoping this game closes up again Pending BET 20 02/08/15 16:18 ? Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (167.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $300.00 -
ROUND 18 BETS CONTINUED. lets see if things go towards my betting plans here Pending BET 21 02/08/15 16:34 ? Fremantle v Greater Western Sydney Big Win Little Win Fremantle 1-39 @ 2.05 05m 44s 2.05 $60.00 -
ROUND 18 SUMMARY Disaster! That's all I can call it. Stupid betting. Impulse Betting. Call it what you want but Sunday was my dumbest tilt betting performance on the AFL for quite some time. I might as well as put all my eggs in the one basket on the Friday game,as once again, I got off to a good start. My Tigers proved all the Bookies wrong at long odds to defeat the Hawks. I was in for $100 and out for $290, a nice $190 start to the week. Sportsbet before this game paid all bets placed on Hawthorn to win the Grand Final and well done to the supporters who had a bet on this. These supporters can now double dip on the same bet with their profits as they have nothing to lose. A nice gesture by Sportsbet, and let's see if Double Jeopardy comes in to play. There were three Saturday arvo games and I had $110 invested. True to form, all my selections miss and it was back to the drawing board. I laughably cashed out for $2 which will buy me a couple of packets of 2 minute noodles during the week. The $100 8 leg multi I placed after the Richmond win was also shot. Brilliant. From the highs of a Tigers win to the lows of being in deficit again - the joy's (not) of the punt this year. To recover some money from the Saturday arvo games, I placed a live bet on the Swans/Adelaide game. It was a total points bet and, this time the $100 bet hit for an $85 profit. Saturday night there were two games - Carlton vs North & Gold Coast vs WCE. I had three bets on these two games totalling $125. Two of the three bets hit and I profited $40. So before Sunday's action I was about $110 up. No complaints at the start of the day, but plenty of complaining during and after the day. Sunday started with the Port vs St.K game. I didn't bet prior the game starting and I ended up putting on two live bets at about half time. Both bets won, in for $100 and out for $186. The weeks profit sits at $200. Now, this is where the stupidity starts!. Before the Bulldogs/Bombers game I had two bets totalling $125. I wanted the Dogs to win by margin 1-39 and I predicted a somewhat high scoring game where I needed over 178 points to be scored. At the end of the first 1/4, scores were 4 vs 8. There goes that high scoring game. So, to avoid losing my original $75 total points bet (>178.5), I decided to bet live and bet on the new line of 147.5 points. I bet on unders for $150. Half time comes and there has been a complete reversal to the first quarter - 9 goals 7 scored and the combined scores at half time were 73. At half time, I was thinking the <147.5 bet was a loser so I bet on the new points line which was 167.5. I had $300 on this bet. At the end of the third quarter, there was another goal feast - 9 goals 5. Scores combined were 132. I then was getting itchy that the 167.5 bet was dead and I was looking at how to recover those monies. Before the start of the last quarter , the new total points line was at 178.5. Coincidentally, the same line before the game started. I was trying to work out, the scoring pattern for the last quarter. At 3/4 time, the Dogs are 70 points up. They can't lose the game and just maybe, they might let Essendon score a few junk time goals. So with all this in my head, I decided that it would be another high scoring quarter and I placed a $700 bet that both teams would kick a combined 48 points or more. Watching the last quarter and I have this feeling in my guts and the little birds in my head were saying, 'Yarni, what the fuck were you thinking'. Final siren goes and only 35 points were scored in the last. Total game score was 167. So, this is what happened in this game - $50 bet lost,$75 bet lost, $150 bet lost, $700 bet lost and $300 bet won. I had $1275 invested in this game and I lost $725. Fuck Me! That's all I can say. But like a Demtel commercial, Wait There's More! Still fuming and shaking my head on what just happened, I switched my attention to the last game between Freo vs GWS. I did have a bet before the start of this game and it was Freo 1-39. I had $60 @ $2.05. Now, I lost interest in this bet and I cashed out at half time for $60.66. At half time the Dockers were 26 points up and I thought they would run over the top in the second half. It was also at half time where I placed a bet on the total game score. The line was 141.5. The scores at half time were 62 combined. I had $850 on under 141.5. Talk about chasing your losses, I was now rage betting. Third quarter ends and Freo lead by 33. Game score is 109. 47 points get kicked for the quarter and my unders bet of $850 needs a life vest. I'm not done with stupidity yet, I look at how I can recover another loss and see the total points line @ 149.5. I took a breath and thought, well if this bet loses, I'm going to put down the Sunday experience as one to forget. I exhaled and placed a new $800 bet on under 149.5. I nearly put $1600 on this, but thought that was mad - it's round 18, Sunday afternoon for goodness sakes. The final siren goes and the Dockers win by 21. The original bet I had on a 1-39 margin would of won, but I cashed out !. The game score ended on 147. The $850 bet lost but I recovered most of it when the $800 bet hit. In all fairness, I am lucky that I didn't lose the $800 bet. 1 minutes to go, Pavlich marks directly in front, 40m out. His kick just misses to the right hand side and goes through for a point. The week ends and I am trying to workout why I acted foolishly on the last two games. All I can put it down to was a rush of blood, trying to win a tidy sum for the week, which ended up costing me 'who knows what' So there you have it guys & gals. I had a brain explosion and I am going to make sure that it doesn't happen again. The numbers are below and I'll see you with the post on Round 19. I will do this Thursday night after teams are announced. Round Summary: Bets: 24 ...Won (11) Lost (13) Profit/Loss for round: LOSS ($690.00) Round Turnover: $3,620.65 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 251 - Won (81) Lost (170) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($3,789.95) Total turnover: $19,917.52 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Win BET 24 02/08/15 18:41 Fremantle v Greater Western Sydney Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (149.5) @ 1.85 02/08/15 1.85 $800.00 $1480.00 Lose BET 23 02/08/15 18:01 Fremantle v Greater Western Sydney Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (141.5) @ 1.85 02/08/15 1.85 $850.65 $0.00 Lose BET 22 02/08/15 17:17 Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Over (178.5) @ 1.85 02/08/15 1.85 $700.00 $0.00 Cashed Out BET 21 02/08/15 16:34 Fremantle v Greater Western Sydney Big Win Little Win Fremantle 1-39 @ 2.05 02/08/15 2.05 $60.00 $60.66 Win BET 20 02/08/15 16:18 Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (167.5) @ 1.85 02/08/15 1.85 $300.00 $555.00 Lose BET 19 02/08/15 15:42 Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (147.5) @ 1.85 02/08/15 1.85 $150.00 $0.00 Lose BET 18 02/08/15 14:55 Essendon v Western Bulldogs Total Game Points - Over/Under Over (178.5) @ 1.88 02/08/15 1.88 $75.00 $0.00 Cashed Out BET 17 02/08/15 14:52 Essendon v Western Bulldogs Big Win Little Win Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ 2.15 02/08/15 2.15 $50.00 $3.67 Win BET 16 02/08/15 14:43 Port Adelaide v St Kilda Line Port Adelaide (-47.5) @ 1.88 02/08/15 1.88 $50.00 $94.00 Win BET 15 02/08/15 14:42 Port Adelaide v St Kilda Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (175.5) @ 1.85 02/08/15 1.85 $50.00 $92.50 Lose BET 14 01/08/15 20:50 Carlton v North Melbourne Total Game Points - Over/Under Over (176.5) @ 1.85 01/08/15 1.85 $35.00 $0.00 Win BET 13 01/08/15 20:49 Gold Coast v West Coast Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (171.5) @ 1.85 01/08/15 1.85 $50.00 $92.50 Win BET 12 01/08/15 20:46 Carlton v North Melbourne Line North Melbourne (-26.5) @ 1.88 01/08/15 1.88 $40.00 $75.20 Win BET 11 01/08/15 16:51 Sydney v Adelaide Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (196.5) @ 1.85 01/08/15 1.85 $100.00 $185.00 Lose BET 10 01/08/15 01:48 Multibet (Trebles) 01/08/15 4.09 $20.00 $0.00 Cashed Out BET 9 01/08/15 01:36 Geelong v Brisbane Big Win Little Win Geelong 1-39 @ 2.45 01/08/15 2.45 $30.00 $0.71 Lose BET 8 01/08/15 01:36 Collingwood v Melbourne Line Collingwood (-23.5) @ 1.92 01/08/15 1.92 $20.00 $0.00 Lose BET 7 01/08/15 01:36 Collingwood v Melbourne Big Win Little Win Collingwood 40+ @ 2.90 01/08/15 2.90 $10.00 $0.01 Lose BET 6 01/08/15 01:36 Sydney v Adelaide Line Adelaide (+17.5) @ 1.92 01/08/15 1.92 $20.00 $0.00 Cashed Out BET 5 01/08/15 01:36 Sydney v Adelaide Big Win Little Win Adelaide 1-39 @ 3.60 01/08/15 3.60 $10.00 $1.30 Lose BET 4 31/07/15 18:34 Multibet (8 folds) 01/08/15 10.98 $100.00 $0.00 Win BET 3 31/07/15 18:28 Hawthorn v Richmond Head to Head Richmond @ 5.15 31/07/15 5.15 $10.00 $51.50 Win BET 2 31/07/15 18:28 Hawthorn v Richmond Line Richmond (+35.5) @ 1.92 31/07/15 1.92 $80.00 $153. Win BET 1 31/07/15 18:28 Hawthorn v Richmond Winning Margin Spread Richmond 1-19 @ 8.50 31/07/15 8.50 $10.00 $85.00
It all starts tonight with Adelaide $2.40 vs Richmond $1.60. Line is 6.5. Brett Deledio will be the deciding factor in this game. If he doesn't play, the Crows will win and the $2.40 for head to head is a good bet. If Deledio does play, I like the Tigers 1-39 @ $2.30. This bet will be placed at the last minute after they run onto the ground. Collingwood $1.23 vs Carlton $4.35. Line is 29.5. Both teams have now packed their bags for the year. Collingwood should win but I don't think they can cover the line. My initial thoughts are Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.15 Western Bulldogs $1.67 vs Port Adelaide $2.25. Line is 6.5. Murphy out for Dogs will sway the game a little to Port. Both teams need the win to achieve respective ladder positions for their finals pursuit. I just have the Dogs winning this one. The $2.30 for 1-39 is not bad for a 50/50 result. Brisbane $2.50 vs Gold Coast $1.55. Line is 10.5. Who's got a coin? I'll call in the air. To be honest, I couldn't give a rats toss bag who wins this game. There is no impact on finals standings so this will be a fizzer from the outset. For betting purposes I might have $1 on another draw. Geelong $1.90 vs Sydney $1.94. Line is 0.5. A mutual banner! Well, As Sam Newman said last night, 'Why don't we give the Swans a two goal head start so we can make them feel welcome'. I agree with Sam. It's football FFS. Who ever wins, the winning margin will be less than 40 points. Cats are $2.40 and the Swans are $2.45 for the 1-39 markets. My initial thoughts are the Cats in this bracket. West Coast $2.15 vs Hawthorn $1.73. Line is 5.5. West Coast were terrible last week and Hawthorn (I'm afraid to say it) were outplayed on the day. I do like the Hawks in this one. Talk of copying the Richmond playbook are laughable as Hawthorn will not make the same mistakes two weeks running. For me the head to head $1.73 is good value. They are $2.20 if you think they can beat the Eagles by under 40 points. Melbourne $3.55 vs North $1.30. Line is 21.5. It was good to see a spirited Melbourne performance last week. I don't think they will win, but at the +21.5 start, they could be a good thing at $1.92. For those that think the Kangas and Goldstein can destroy the Demons by 40+, the odds of $3.10 is on offer GWS $1.24 vs Essendon $4.10. Line is 26.5. The orange team are playing witches hats!. The rest of the Bombers might as well go to the ashes and pad up as the Aussie Cricketers have gone to shit. Seriously, the GWS have more to play for and this is why they will win. The GWS at the line will be a good bet. Saints $2.60 vs Fremantle $1.50. Line is 13.5. The Fremantle line could well be the bet of the round. From memory, this game last year was a boil over to the Saints. Could they do it again, Why not?. Freo are 2 games clear on top and it wouldn't bother them if the Saints had their day in the sun. Logic though says Freo at the line is the best bet of the round. So that's what I think will happen. As my selections have been hot and cold this year, more so cold, like a Sudoku puzzle, you figure out which selections are wrong. Good luck punters and let's see if we can all profit this week.
ROUND 19 BETS.. Pending BET 1 07/08/15 19:34 ? Adelaide v Richmond Head to Head Richmond @ 1.72 ? 14m 47s 1.72 $100.00 -
round 19 bets two live bets placed with 4 minutes to go in the 3rd qtr. Pending bet 2 07/08/15 21:34 ? Adelaide v Richmond Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (138.5) @ 1.85 Closed 1.85 $150.00 - Pending bet 3 07/08/15 21:38 ? Adelaide v Richmond Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (143.5) @ 1.85 Closed 1.85 $150.00 - ?
round 19 bets Pending bet 4 08/08/15 13:22 ? Collingwood v Carlton Head to Head Collingwood @ 1.23 ? 20m 1.23 $100.00 Pending bet 5 08/08/15 13:23 ? Multibet (5 folds) 20m 6.32 $100.00 - ?5 head to head matches win only Collingwood / bulldogs / hawthorn / north Melbourne / fremantle
round 19 bets live bet placed at qtr time Pending bet 6 08/08/15 14:16 ? Collingwood v Carlton Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (164.5) @ 1.85 Live 1.85 $60.00 -
round 19 bets just got home and i'll post a points bet I had at half time in the coll game. I wasn't a fan of the 11 goal last quarter 08/08/15 bet 7 14:37 ? Collingwood v Carlton Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (160.5) @ 1.85 08/08/15 1.85 $90.00 $0.00
round 19 bets lets see if the gold coast can win Pending bet 8 08/08/15 16:26 ? Brisbane v Gold Coast Head to Head Gold Coast @ 1.50 ? 05m 23s 1.50 $100.00 -
round 19 bets Pending bet 9 08/08/15 19:15 ? Geelong v Sydney Head to Head Geelong @ 1.87 ? 04m 19s 1.87 $50.00 -
Good morning all. I am out and about and i have 2 new bets. Not done in sportsbet format as am on phone. Good luck punters. Let's hope we all have it. Bet 10 - $100 north win @ $1.31 Bet 11 - $100 freo win @ $1.50