2015 Pre-Season Auction Thread

Pick11 state of play:

Snoz's bid is still in the lead.

While I love my Tigers, and I reckon Knights has a real chance this year given he looks fit - a good thing considering the horrible luck he has had - my forwardline is well stocked, and well stocked with Richmond types as well.

Fitzy's bid of Clinton young and the two draft picks isn't bad at all; the problem lays in Mr Young himself - he is no longer a spring chicken and I do worry that he hasn't got the improvement or longevity in him that Steven May has. The draft pick at 27 would be very handy but I'm not sure it bridges the gap.

If Steven May was in the draft, there wouldn't be too many ahead of him in terms of defenders. Pick 11 and a small swap of picks is probably indicative of his value in thinking about this draft coming up.

 

Pick 3 state of play:

Prap's bid of midfielder Anthony Miles has been in the lead. And this one has been far far harder to judge.

If I was in need of a forward I'd jump at Jim's bid. Pick 39 and Jack for 3 isn't bad value at all. Problem is, I have a lot of forwards and, again, Richmond forwards.

After drafting for Merton in the ORFFL recently the reliance on too many players from one team - no matter how good they are as players - was made pretty clear.

With Snoz's bids, they're harder to judge and measure up in some ways because of the different elements involved. So I've tried my best:

The Mullett/Lyons bid doesn't do it for me. Mullett is injured and I don't like trading for injured players, even with a draft pick to sort of help make up the difference.

I'm also a bit concerned he lost his way last year and was playing lockdown roles in defence when he did play - if he returns and continues to play those roles it might really hurt his scoring. Especially with a guy like Sam Wright staking a strong claim to be the running defender and sweeper.

The Lyons and picks bid is closer to the mark. And to be honest I'm still not 100% sure which bid of this one or Prap's is in front even as I write this and scribble on a notepad!

Miles is far and away a better player than Lyons. I reckon a new coach and a bit of faith in Lyons has seen him improve this off season though. Averaged 70 last year when not a sub. Even with this though, Miles, at his age, still also has massive potential to improve. And 100 ppg last year against very good opposition? Hmmm.

The thing is the draft picks, and how you can accurately measure their worth. My first pick is pick 48, then way down to 74. 87, 100+ Maybe I'll have 40 if the current bid for Pick 11 remains in front.

So I'd have Miles and a minimum four picks at 48 (40), 74, 87, 100+. A guy who I reckon has the potential to be elite (who would be drafted in the top1-3 spots in this years draft) one middling draft pick and three very late ones.

Compare that to Lyons (who I'd rate as fair with room to improve - worth perhaps a pick around 40, but who could be used fwd as a MPP), but then picks at 31, 48 (40), 59 and 74.

So is the gap between Miles and Lyons - about 40 spots in the draft - bridged by moving up in the draft 50+ spots (87 to 31) and 40+ spots (100+ to 59)?

Damn it ... this is tough. This is why I shouldn't do auctions. Jen's laughing at me as I sit here and try to figure this out.

All right, I'll jump - I'm going to go with the Lyons bid.

Two reasons - if Lyons last year averaged 70 when not a sub and being used away from the contested ball, he should improve again this year. And even if that improvement is only slight, he is a forward too which gives him an extra place to play on the field.

Hell I paid Pick 17 for a M/F four years older than Lyons who averaged 15 ppg more last year and thought that was a pretty fair deal.

Second reason - I trust being able to draft players at 31 and 59 more than 87 and 100+. Given the turnover in my side this off season I probaby need a slight level of security there and some level of assurance I will nab at least some of the players I want.
So, finally, and this has taken an hour to get through: State of Play for Pick 3: Snoz has his nose very very narrowly in front in the bidding.

 

That was an essay. My apologies ... thanks to everyone for reading (and for falling asleep, which would be understandable)

 

Fitzy wrote:
Sorry to keep you thinking Chris, but if Young was changed to Ellis, who is 2yrs younger and averaged 78 when not sub/injury-affected, would that make a difference? So Ellis, 27 and 63 for #11 (and #73 if you wish to include it) Ellis' fragility worries me Fitzy, so I'd probably have to say it doesn't make a heap of difference.

 

Fitzy wrote:
Change of tact, if you could let me know if this is close at all that would be great. Andrejs Everitt, pick 57 and pick 63 for pick 3 and pick 73

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Fitzy, I still judge the improvement/potential growth in May as a defender and the move from 48 to 40 in the draft a little more valuable than Everitt (even though he has improved) and moving up from 59 to 57 and from 74 to 63 in the draft.

 

Auctions appear to be done, so the previously indicated top bids have won out. Pick 11 is going to Gundagai for Steven May (DEF). Gundagai will also receive Darraweits Pick 48 in exchange for its Pick 40. Pick 3 is going to Gundagai for Jarryd Lyons (M/F) and draft picks 31 and 59.

 

chris88 wrote:
That was an essay. My apologies ... thanks to everyone for reading (and for falling asleep, which would be understandable) FWIW, I enjoyed reading it chris