2017 The FU Run Home

Discussion in 'ORFFU' started by tyze1, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. wrightbrendan

    wrightbrendan Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely +1
    Just wish you hadn't been so accurate about my contest with the 'Gropers!
     
  2. tyze1

    tyze1 Well-Known Member

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    Things be getting real with 2 weeks of the Home and Away season to go and 9 teams doesn’t go into 4 spots… every clash is a big one from here. Some musings and thoughts below:

    Current State & Run Home 5 - 13

    9 & 6
    Ararat – Cow Bay & Pearcedale
    King Island – Serengeti & Southern Cross
    Coolgardie – Pearcedale & Hughenden

    8 & 7
    Blanchetown – Nuytsland & Christmas Island

    7 & 8
    Korumburra – Eden & Nuytsland
    Pakenham – Christmas Island & Staghorn Flat
    Xmas Island – Pakenham & Blanchetown
    Staghorn Flat – Gisborne & Pakenham
    Pearcedale – Coolgardie & Ararat

    This weeks ball breakers are:

    Coolgardie v Pearcedale: Coolgardie will look to rebound from last weeks shocker whilst Pearcedale with 3/4 are sneaking up on the 8. Pearcedale for mine to put the Prospectors season on the line.

    Nuytsland v Blanchetown: Has Blanchetown raised the white flag? Need to show some fight this week. Will be out of the 8 come end of the weekend.

    King Island v Serengeti: The Monarchs have the toughest run home and need a win to hold a spot in the 8. Buffaloes to win this week to spice things up in the final round.

    Christmas Island v Pakenham: I just don’t know! Christmas Island at home just perhaps a draw. Its 10 v 11 the losers season in tatters.

    Other games that matter

    The Bulls with the likely inclusion of Coniglio just over Gisborne

    Korumburra should get the points over Eden, but can Eden ‘no changes’ be a spanner in the works for another finals aspirant this week.

    Those results along with victories to Ararat (can't trust them) & Southern Cross would leave the 9 aspirants as follows with multiple clashes between them in the final round!

    10 & 6 – Ararat
    9 & 7 – King Island & Coolgardie
    8 & 8 – Korumburra, Christmas Island, Staghorn Flat, Pearcedale & Blanchetown
    7 & 9 – Pakenham

    With four spots up for grabs its possible that 9 wins and a healthy points for will get you as high as 6th or 7th this year. Gonna be a long week next week for the mathematicians to nut out the combinations and permutations of the final round!

    Good luck to all this round
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2017
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  3. JPK

    JPK Moderator Staff Member

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  4. YAD69

    YAD69 Moderator Staff Member

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  5. tyze1

    tyze1 Well-Known Member

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    10 & 6 – Ararat
    9 & 7 – King Island & Coolgardie
    8 & 8 – Korumburra, Christmas Island, Staghorn Flat, Pearcedale & Blanchetown
    7 & 9 – Pakenham


    Great tipping this week from the the run home analytical team sees the above prediction come to fruition...

    The numbers and analysis are being worked on as we speak still 7 teams battling for 3 places!
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2017
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  6. tyze1

    tyze1 Well-Known Member

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    The algorithms have been run and in its simplest form the following are the commutations and permutations as the run home reaches its climax:

    King Island 9 & 7, 19074 Points For – 6th
    Win against Southern Cross and they make the 8.

    Lose to Southern Cross then the following applies:
    · Makes finals if two of Coolgardie, Korumburra, Christmas Island and Staghorn Flat lose, unless Coolgardie is one of the two losing teams but outscores King Island by 44 points in which case will need three of above mentioned teams to lose to remain in the 8. Can stay above Staghorn Flat if they lose and Staghorn Flat wins if they outscore Staghorn Flat by 41 points.


    Coolgardie – 9 & 7, 19031 Points For – 7th
    Win against Hughenden and the Prospectors play finals

    Lose to Hughenden then the following applies:
    · Makes finals if two of King Island, Korumburra, Christmas Island and Staghorn Flat lose, provided if King Island is one of the two losing teams then Coolgardie outscore King Island by 44 points. If not, then will need three of above mentioned teams to lose to remain in the 8. Can stay above Staghorn Flat if they lose and Staghorn Flat wins if they outscore Staghorn Flat by 84 points.


    Korumburra – 8 & 8, 19818 Points For – 8th
    Win against Nuytsland and providing Christmas Island don’t win and outscore them by 403 points they play finals

    Lose to Nuytsland then cannot make the 8 as Blanchetown and Christmas Island clash and even if Staghorn Flat & Pearcedale lose then will be replaced by the winner of the Bunyips Smugglers clash.


    Christmas Island – 8 & 8, 19416 Points For - 9th
    Lose and its season over

    Win against Blanchetown then will make the finals if the following happens:
    · One of King Island, Coolgardie and Korumburra lose and if Staghorn Flat wins doesn’t outscore them by 303 points

    Staghorn Flat – 8 & 8, 19114 Points For – 10th
    Lose and its season over

    Win against Pakenham then will make finals if the following happens:
    · Korumburra & Christmas Island lose or
    · Two of King Island, Coolgardie, Korumburra & Christmas Island lose provided King Island don’t outscore them by 41 points and Coolgardie by 84 points in which case will need either 3 or 4 loses of those teams above them

    Pearcedale – 8 & 8, 18577 Points For – 11th
    Lose and its season over

    Win against Ararat then requires losses for Pakenham, Christmas Island & Staghorn Flat, providing Blanchetown doesn’t outscore them by 167 points in which case they would miss.

    Blanchetown – 8 & 8, 18411 Points For – 12th
    Lose and its season over

    Win against Christmas Island then would require losses to Pakenham, Staghorn Flan and either a lose to Pearcedale or if they win to outscore them by 167 points.

    The clashes that matter: Round 17 of the FU

    Pearcedale v Ararat
    Ararat to start favorite - however is certainly no gimmie

    Blanchetown v Christmas Island
    Blanchetown are shot, Christmas Island in a canter

    King Island v Southern Cross
    Southern Cross to start heavy favorites in this one, King Island will need to dig deep to secure a finals berth

    Staghorn Flat v Pakenham
    A near full strength Bulls at home just to keep the dream alive

    Korumburra v Nuytsland
    Can't go past Nuytsland, however Korumburra can go big on their day

    Hughenden v Coolgardie
    17 v 7 however this is no ordinary 17th placed side. Over the past month Hughenden averages 1216, Coolgardie 1132 Hugheden to spoil the Coolgardie's finals aspirations

    What does this mean on the above predictions?
    6th Christmas Island 9&8
    7th Staghorn Flat 9&8
    8th King Island 9&8
    9th Coolgardie 9&8

    Points for to decide 6th-9th - hopefully a few coaches can preview some of 6 big match ups this week.

    I'll preview Coolgardie v Hughenden

    The fight to the 8 is going down to the wire - be awesome to get as many updates from those involved over the weekend!

    Good luck teams!
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2017
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  7. tyze1

    tyze1 Well-Known Member

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    Well what a climax! Headlines galore!!

    4 points separating 4th to 11th!

    3 teams miss out on Points for!

    Christmas Island sneak in over King Island in the only change to the 8 in the final round... King Island very stiff to miss after pumping out 1372 with 14 players

    The Blowflys knock off the ladder leader to make the 8 in a high scoring epic! #ThankyouWalla

    Coolgardie got the job against the Hughenden Tankers! @JPK calls for an investigation are getting louder!

    Southern Cross take the Minor Premiership

    Banchang land the race for the spoon
     
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