It's that time of year again. That honeymoon period where every coach has traded in next season's breakout superstars and drafted the next Norm Smith, Coleman, Brownlow, Big Tap, Lucky Find and Premiership winners that will take them to a run of 10 straight FU premierships. The reality hits usually around round 3 when your breakout superstar is averaging less than last year and your young elite talent is in danger of being delisted by the AFL club that drafted them after being overlooked for senior selection in the first 3 weeks. Analysis is listed in alphabetical order based on team name. I've put a few thoughts in on the Crocs but excluded them from the ranking system because it's totally unfair to compare other teams against the superstars of the competition Cow Bay FC, winners of 2 wooden spoons in a row. So who won, lost and had an indifferent draft? There will be a few posts to cover all teams. If you're lazy, here's the TL;DR version in ranking order: 9/10 (Really Good) - Ararat, Blanchetown 8/10 (Very Good) - Banchang, Nuytsland, Pakenham, Southern Cross, Staghorn Flat 7/10 (Good) - Christmas Island, Coolgardie, Gisborne, Hughenden, King Island, Serengeti 6/10 (Above Average) - Eden, Groote Eylandt, Korumburra 5/10 (Average) - Pearcedale
Ararat Pick 4: Jack Higgins, FWD/MID, RIC The number one player as ranked by Champion Data slid to pick 4 in the FU draft. Shows how much they know. He will probably become a gun FWD/MID in the Zorko mould in due course. Pick 5: Andrew Brayshaw, MID, FRE Freo's Weller replacement who will be learning as much as he can from Fyfe. Some say he's a good but not great player. Doesn't really matter if you get a mid who's capable of averaging 100+ a season eventually. Pick 16: Sam Hayes, RUC, PTA In my view Hayes is a high risk, high reward pick. There are question marks over whether he'll develop into a ruck or forward due to his endurance. Just needs to apply himself to get there. Pick 40: Brayden Crossley, RUC, GCS Really like this pick. This is fine for a 2nd last/last pick at this stage of the draft. Has been described as having strong footy IQ but poor endurance. The endurance issue should fix itself over a few preseasons. Pick 82: Gryan Miers, FWD, GEE A possession winning, pressure laying small forward. Should push for a senior spot based on his defensive traits. Verdict: Last year he had 2 top 10 picks, this year he managed to get 2 top 5 picks. Strong draft with some high risk, high reward type selections. Got some nice young rucks his 2 later picks but maybe some best 22 defensive backup was needed because it seems Stewart is the only one waiting in the wings. 9/10. Banchang Pick 1: Luke Davies-Uniacke, MID, NTH Some coaches believed this guy to be the best player in the draft. He'll get game time in a rebuilding team to develop AFL experience quickly and will be one of the leading mids for North over the next decade. Pick 32: Ed Vickers-Willis, DEF, NTH In the box seat to take the 3rd tall role in defence but is frustratingly injury prone. I think he'll be a decent scorer in time but possibly not an elite one. Pick 34: Wylie Buzza, FWD/RUC, GEE The young forward/ruck has shown something in his VFL games, averaging 81 DT and just over a goal a game last year. Got the call up later in the year but still needs to develop. Pick 38: Jordan Dawson, FWD/MID, SYD Another Sydney success story but will need to translate it into AFL form (I hate you Jordan Foote so getting my hopes up before SC started last year). This guy averaged 130 DT points in NEAFL with a 196 point effort during the year. How will he go in the seniors is the only query. Verdict: Added a potential elite mid to play alongside Adams and replace Higgins but needs some more. Think he could've added another mid instead of Buzza, RUC/FWD doesn't seem like that much of a need. Really like the Dawson pick, and the Vickers-Willis is a solid but not outstanding selection. 8/10. Blanchetown Pick 7: Darcy Fogarty, FWD/MID, ADE The player rated number 1 at the start of the season by some seems to have struggled this year and he refused to blame his injuries. Some say he's a big bodied mid, others a Stringer type. Can't complain about getting him here. Pick 12: Jaidyn Stephenson, FWD/MID, COL Consistently ranked in the top 10 throughout the year and I was a little surprised he made it this far. Traded out for Bonar who provides some elite potential for the future midfield. Pick 25: Jacob Townsend, FWD, RIC Not much wrong selecting Townsend at this stage of the draft. 2 mids had already been added so it makes sense to add a pure forward to an ok but not (yet) strong forward lineup. Pick 31: Reilly O'Brien, RUC, ADE Smart selection to pair him with Adelaide's number 1 ruck. I'm not as high on his potential as I was a year or two ago but the Adelaide coaching team get the best out of a lot of players. Verdict: Starting a rebuild and got another first round MSD pick and Bonar for Stephenson, decent value there. I really like the O'Brien selection. Townsend probably won't set the world on fire but he's a decent selection nevertheless. 9/10.
Christmas Island Pick 35: Taylor Garner, FWD, NTH Internally rated half forward in a rebuilding side. Will continue to get games as long as he stops getting injured. Pick 49: Brent Daniels, FWD/MID, GWS Ranked the 15th best draft prospect by CD. He averaged 112SC, 20 disposals and 4 clearances in the TAC Cup. Not sure how much opportunity he'll get but great value here. Pick 64: Noah Balta, FWD/RUC, RIC The athletic tall is earmarked for a future defensive role. Good value here. Pick 71: Oscar Clavarino, DEF, STK Developing tall who is unlikely to see any game time in 2018. Stats likened to Weitering but there must be reasons he didn't go at pick 1. Verdict: No mids for the runner up, instead focused on the rest of the positions. Might be short a best 22 defender if he wants to try and push for a FU Premiership again though. 7/10. Coolgardie Pick 11: Hunter Clark, MID, STK This guy has shown he can play in the middle averaging 6 clearances a game through the TAC. Adds some strong young midfield talent to the team. Pick 15 - Zac Bailey, MID, BRL I'm not as high on this guy as others but he's got speed, talent and ability to play through the middle. May turn out quite well in a team rebuilding on and off the field. Pick 18 - Callum Coleman-Jones, RUC, RIC A good young ruck prospect who will slot in nicely once Martin retires and if Daw doesn't work out over the next couple of years. I think he's more likely to be a forward/ruck with Nankervis showing his stuff last year. Maybe went a bit early on this guy but may not have been there at his next pick. Pick 30 - Luke Partington, FWD, WCE Will this be a mistake again? Averaged 96DT and 28 disposals in WAFL. Will get opportunities to show what he's made of this year, I'm just not confident he'll step up to the next level and become a solid scorer. Verdict: Added some good young mids to the side and a nice ruck. I'm not convinced on Partington but maybe the coach knows something we don't. 7/10. Cow Bay Pick 3: Paddy Dow, MID, CAR. I had a lot of trouble making my shortlist for this pick. After the first 2 picks it was a decision of Cerra vs Dow for me and I ended up leaning towards the guy who has been mentioned to have Danger-like breakaway speed from contests. Pick 21: Andrew McPherson, DEF, ADE There was talk at the start of the year that he may be a top 20 pick but injuries meant he slid. Was happy to grab him here to fix some of Cow Bay's defensive woes. Went a bit early on him I thought and considered grabbing Oscar Allen instead. Pick 33: James Worpel, MID, HAW This guy averaged 22 disposals, 5 clearances and a 50% contested possession rate in the TAC Cup. Now the Crocs are starting to come together with a better looking midfield. Pick 39: Ben Paton, DEF, STK A ready to go, quick, ball winning defender. Another fix to the defensive line. I think he'll surprise this year. Verdict: Hopefully the defensive line has been strengthened and a couple of potential gun mids were added. I think now the team is starting to look more balanced.
Eden Pick 9: Lochie O'Brien, DEF/MID, CAR Sure this guy got taken at pick 10 in that other draft run but that other competition but I reckon Richards will be a better player and was there for the taking if the team was in need of a young defender. Pick 14: Jarred Brander, DEF/FWD, WCE Was talked up as a top 5 pick at the start of the year. Hopefully the slide isn't a precursor to how his career is going to pan out. Has a Coleman medallist to learn from. Pick 59: Ivan Soldo, RUC, RIC Improves the ruck stocks with a young ruckman who's starting to get games. Soldo does well in the hitout department but doesn't collect many possessions so will take time. So so pick. Pick 61: Jesse Joyce, DEF, GCS A classy backman from his draft year and has played more as a small defender over his career thus far. Hasn't scored highly that far but did manage to average almost 15 disposals a game in his second year. Will improve but not sure he'll be much more than an average scorer. Pick 76: Karl Amon, MID, PTA A young mid who's stepped up over the preseason. Will look to build on his games tally but wouldn't be one of the higher averaging Port mids. Pick 77: Jason Castagna, FWD, RIC Best 22 forward but I think his spot will be under pressure from Higgins. Was lucky not to get dropped towards the end of last year. Not one I would've selected during the draft. Verdict: The first 2 picks were good but think the rest were around average. Has a fairly balanced list position wise but needs some more elite/elite potential in my view. 6/10. Gisborne Pick 17: Tim Kelly, MID, GEE Averaged 27 disposals and 118SC in the WAFL last year. Mature aged and should slot into the seniors straight away to start scoring for the Grenades where the midfield needs some help. Pick 27: Lachlan Fogarty, MID, GEE Averaged a huge 145SC in the TAC last year and was rated the 8th best prospect by CD. I suspect he'll be a gun ball winning forward in due course. Nice pick. Pick 58: Josh Walker, DEF/FWD, BRL Needed to add a forward but think there were some better ones to choose from even at this stage of the draft. Not a fan of this pick. Pick 69: Connor Ballenden, DEF/FWD, BRL A tall with an elite kick who's best position is up forward. Rated by some as a top 25 player so great value here. Verdict: I'm a fan of his picks bar the Walker one. He may have DPP status but I think he'll be of no value to the team. Otherwise, decent draft night. 7/10. Groote Eylandt Pick 10: Aaron Naughton, DEF, WBD An intercepting key defender to join Weitering. Strengthens one of 2 weaknesses for the former FU premiership coach. Great pick. Pick 47: Matthew Ling, DEF, SYD Averaged 82SC and 18 disposals in the TAC Cup. Didn't even make CD's top 30 but was taken in the first round so the Swans must see something in him. Good value to get him in the 3rd round? Would've been interesting where he would've been taken in the National Draft if he wasn't taken in the first round. Pick 51: Jack Petruccelle, FWD/MID, WCE The fastest player of the draft who comes from a basketball background. Only averaged 85SC and 15 disposals in the TAC Cup but there's plenty to work with. Hopefully he maintains forward eligibility. Pick 54: Aidan Corr, DEF, GWS Averaged 60SC last year, his best ever. Only averages 10 disposals a game so will never be a great scorer. Not one of the better defensive options. Verdict: Some nice picks but looks like he needs a young forward with potential. Would've picked a forward with his last pick if I were him. 6/10.
Hughenden Pick 2: Cameron Raynor, FWD/MID, BRL Grabbed the guy widely thought of as the best of the draft crop at his pick and has been likened to Dustin Martin. Needs to work on his endurance but a lot of youngsters do. Pick 20: Jacob Allison, MID, BRL Was considered a top 10 prospect at the start of his draft year before his form went backwards over the year. Started to show something last year. Pick 53: Hamish Brayshaw, MID, WCE Slow but averaged 131SC and 27 disposals in the TAC Cup last year. Like the pick, good value. Pick 56: Charlie Spargo, FWD/MID, MEL Highly rated at the start of the year before injuries struck. Averaged 18 disposals and 93SC in the U18 Champs. Very good value at this stage of the draft. Verdict: Got the arguably best player in the draft at pick 2. Like the Brayshaw and Spargo picks but not the Allison one where I would've gone a forward instead. 7/10. King Island Pick 19: Ed Richards, DEF, WBD Solid pick, I was hoping he would get to pick 21 but was not to be. Think he's the second best defensive option out of the draft crop. Great value to get him here. Pick 36: Harrison Himmelberg, DEF, GWS Does well in NEAFL but his scoring rate hasn't translated to AFL level yet. King Island needs some young defenders but I think there may have been a couple of other options with more potential. Pick 46: Lukas Webb, FWD/MID, WBD A young ball winning Bulldog who has averaged at least 90 I the VFL over the past 2 years. Hasn't pushed through for a regular senior spot yet but should get more opportunities this year. Decent value. Pick 48: Patrick Lipinski, FWD/MID, WBD Similar to Toby McLean in that he's a ball winning forward and think he may push past Webb. Really like this pick here. Verdict: Was right to focus on forwards and defenders as the midfield and rucks seem sorted. Love the first and last picks, not that keen on his second pick and the third pick is a good one. 7/10. Korumburra Pick 28: Adam Tomlinson, DEF, GWS Yet to average 70 or more in a season. With Docherty down Korumburra needs a replacement but he wasn't one of the better options here. Pick 41: Zach Guthrie, DEF, GEE Tough as nails defender, rated internally and should get some more games this year. Not a huge ball winner but plenty to work with. One for the future. Pick 42: Dylan Moore, MID, HAW Ranked in the top 10 by CD, a steal here. With the Hawks transitioning he'll be pushing for opportunities. Pick 50: Will Powell, FWD/MID, GCS A National Draft pick from a list manager who's been in the industry for too long and was overdue to go. Averaged 83SC and 14 disposals in the Colts. Who knows how he'll work out but surely can't be as bad a pick as most of Shane Rogers' picks. Verdict: A mix bag on draft night in my view and should've picked another best 22 defender if he wants to push into finals. 6/10.
Nuytsland Pick 23: Harry McKay, FWD, CAR Top 10 pick with some development behind him. Fits a team need for a young forward with potential. Pick 66: Ciaran Byrne, DEF, CAR One of the players who's in line to try and claim Docherty's spot in the lineup. Great value here. Pick 68: Lewis Melican, DEF, SYD A low possession getting key position player who'll provide depth for the Vikings. Pick 70: Alex Pearce, DEF, FRE A highly rated key defender who's had a tough run with injuries. Has only averaged 10 disposals in the games he has played and will take time to adjust back to AFL pace. Verdict: His first 2 picks were great. Seems to have realised maybe some defensive depth was required after all and got a couple of key defenders with potential with his last two. Quite a good draft for the FU Premiership hopeful. 8/10. Pakenham Pick 6: Adam Cerra, MID, FRE Had an article written about him where it was mentioned he would've gone number 1 in the draft if not for injury. Great selection here. Pick 24: Oscar Allen, FWD, WCE Jack Gunston like and ranked the 10th best prospect in the draft. Another decent pick. Pick 60: Sam Taylor, DEF, GWS Averaged 110SC in the Colts and 69SC in the WAFL. Got some potential but will have to wait his turn. Pick 78: Todd Marshall, FWD, PTA Started to get games last year and adds to the bunch of young forwards with potential on the list. Verdict: Love the first 2 picks. Taylor ain't a bad pick and Marshall was great value. Probably would've picked another young mid for him but Marshall and Taylor may prove better scorers than what he could have grabbed. 8/10. Pearcedale Pick 26: Brandon Starcevich, FWD/MID, BRL Went earlier than some thought on draft night. I would've thought a mid would've been more of a pressing need rather a player classed as a general forward by CD. Pick 29: Patrick Naish, FWD/MID, RIC Has the dreaded contested possession rate of under 30% and according to CD isn't likely to make it. Pick 44: Dawson Simpson, RUC, GWS Autopick. Could be worse I guess. If he gets some games he's shown he can be a decent scorer. Pick 62: Josh Williams, MID, NTH Got a couple of games last year but has only averaged 13 disposals. In competition with a few others for a spot on the wing. Verdict: Copped an autopick that may go either way and selected some players who are average selections in my view. 5/10.
Serengeti Pick 8: Nick Coffield, DEF/MID, STK Averaged 20 disposals and 101 SC in the TAC Cup. Has drawn comparisons to Pendles. Pick 22: Charlie Constable, MID, GEE The 13th best prospect as ranked by CD. Will have a few decent players to learn off. Fills a need for a young mid. Pick 57: Charlie Ballard, FWD/MID, GCS Averaged 18 disposals and 79SC in the U18 Champs. Unlikely to get much if any game time. Pick 67: Oleg Markov, DEF, RIC I said last year he's an athlete first and footballer second. He got games last year but I haven't changed my mind on him. Verdict: Great first two picks, ok 3rd and don't like the last one. However, he's got a strong list so Markov is worth the punt. 7/10. Southern Cross Pick 13: Aiden Bonar, FWD/MID, GWD Was a gun at 16 but lost 2 years with injury. Time will tell if he'll recover his form. High risk but high reward pick who never got to settle at Southern Cross. Pick 45: Jarrad McVeigh, DEF, SYD Although he averaged 83 in 2017, it was his lowest averaging season in the past 10 years. Seems to be on the decline but is worth the risk at this part of the draft to see if he can improve on last year. Pick 63: Dougal Howard, DEF, PTA Love this pick. A former ruck/forward recast as a defender who shone in the first week of finals. Pick 65: Myles Poholke, FWD/MID, ADE An inside mid who pushes forward. Drafted in 2016, he played 16 games in the SANFL last year for a 63DT and 16 disposal average. So so pick. Verdict: The only pick I don't like is the last one. With a few older defenders on the list I probably would've gone for another defender but that ain't a big deal. 8/10. Staghorn Flat Pick 37: Brayden Ainsworth, MID, WCE Averaged 134 in Colts and 91 in the WAFL Reserves. Will have every opportunity to press for senior selection. I like this pick. Pick 43: Liam Ryan, FWD, WCE Fills a need and has some good potential. Question marks over his character but if he pulls it together should be a great pick. Pick 52: Corey Maynard, MID, MEL A tough inside mid who averaged 95DT and 24 disposals in the VFL. One of the better mature aged mids left in the pool. Pick 55: Neville Jetta, DEF, MEL Has never averaged 70 or more and probably never will. Not a whole lot to choose from for defensive depth but I could name 3/4 others I would've gone for instead. Verdict: Perhaps short a young forward. Jetts seems a wasted pick, love the first two picks though. 8/10.
Great analysis and write up. Time will tell if the ratings are right, might be an interesting review at season end.
Awesome work @fresh! Great analysis! In regards to my picks I obviously picked Bonar and ended up with Stephenson who I see as a long term f/m so should slot in nicely when Wallis loses dpp in 2019. Stephenson was the third ranked player by CD so I see him as a steal at 13. McVeigh was the 26th highest averaging defender in 2017; if he can maintain his D2 form when sitting at D4 for me I'll be delighted. Both Howard and Poholke were Hail Mary picks for me; would be great if they work out but if they don't they can be two of my mandatory four movements at the end of the season. As an aside I think the league needs to conduct an inquiry into how @insider manages to get all of these 1st round selections each year when his team is perennially sitting in the top 6 Another cracking draft from him!
Excellent work @fresh I always enjoy reading the draft review. Its great seeing what others think of my picks and players, and even how other coaches assess the gaps of all the team lists. Keep it up mate!
I think your Bonar and first round MSD pick for Stephenson trade at this stage is a very fair win/win trade. Stephenson for effectively pick 14 and 1st round MSD pick is great value. On the flip side it's also a great trade for Blanchetown even if Bonar doesn't quite fulfill his potential. Had I accepted Groote's bid of pick 47 for Tucker then it would have been a different draft night for me. Allen would've come to Cow Bay at pick 21 and Howard probably at 47 if not 39. Now I've got to hope Tucker starts showing something.
Top work @fresh! Would love to have your knowledge of these youngsters. Beware the Crocs in seasons to come!
@fresh love your work year on year! The Bulls last pick was the toughest of the lot... i had a dozen players I was considering and was generally torn on the outcome Jetta got the gig for a number of reasons (can't draft too many kids although Gryan Miers & Charlie Spargo were typed in to the selection box more than once and also considered in my 2 previous picks where Ryan & Maynard were selected) * Best 22 player * Backline depth with some question marks over some youngsters Ellis, DBJ & Scrimshaw and the ability for them to play week in week out * Averaged close to 80 over the last 6 weeks of 2017 * Also have 2 x first round MSD picks so some opportunity to see how it pans out and dump if need be Again love your work - write ups like these are a joy to read
I suspected you picked him to have defensive backup. Interesting that he averaged almost 80 over the last 6 weeks that's something I overlooked. Always interesting to hear others opinions on why they picked who they did. I would've picked Howard and Byrne over Jetta and 2 other defenders left in the pool who I won't name that I feel may average around the same mark but may have more chance of averaging 70+ (even if it's a small chance) if things fall their way.
@fresh impressive write up, great giving the viking team 8/10 considering my late picks in the draft. McKay was chosen to sure up my forwards as I feel some may lose forward eligibility and I consider him best 22 and happy to wait for Mckay to have another year of development. Delighted to get Byrne would have played more if it wasn't for his injury and I believe he will be 1st choice to take Dochertys role. Melican is best 22 surprised to see he was still available and same with Pearce. All in all I was able to grab all the players I had on my list with only two going before my picks. Even though I loathe to draft KPPs I wanted to add depth to my squad and these players in my mind will play most of the season. @fresh spot on analysis