2018 Premiership Odds

Len · Jun 19, 2018

jimbowan said: ↑

Surely my acquisition of Jason Castagna makes me equal flag favourite now!?
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Almost as much as my call to redraft "no legs" Elliott I would think

Len · Mar 14, 2019

ChiefRussell said: ↑

Hey gang,

ChiefBet is back for another year of oddsmaking. I look forward to the debate and counter arguments as we still have a month until the real stuff starts. Remember, gamble responsibly.

ORFFA Premiership Market:

2.00 Waikickamoocow
The premiers deserve the right to start odds on favourites. A quiet off-season, but given the injuries befalling their two main rivals, quiet is good. Strong across every line.

4.00 Venus Bay
Would have probably been equal favourite if it wasn't for the injury to Docherty. The Vultures can cover the loss against most if not all bar the Cows, but the 30 point drop off in best 15 is significant enough to put them here.

6.00 Marble Bar
The Misfits are in a similar boat to the Vultures, just replace Doherty with Zac Williams. They have handy cover in defence, just maybe a tad less scoring power forward of centre. Will still be there abouts.

8.00 Cradle Mountain & Gariwerd
Both teams have clearly decided that they are in 'win now' mode with productive off seasons. Both sides boast deep and powerful midfields and will be hoping that their bookends stand up. Hard to split the pair, but it should be a close run race for the final spot in the top 4.

10.00 Foul Bay
As far down the 'pecking' order as they have been since the ORFFA's inception. They still have Danger and a pretty deep midfield group, but an ageing backline and forward line leaves them more vulnerable than ever to injuries. They can still push for top 4 if everything goes their way, but with a bunch of 30 somethings and a coach too ill-disciplined to rebuild, this seems a little unlikely.

11.00 Iron Knob, Darraweit, Gundagai
The Knob faces similar issues to the Chooks, just without the ruck depth. They will be hoping from a 'vintage' season from the Little Master to offset this. Darraweit were very active in the off-season and boast a team chock-full of depth, but are maybe lacking the out and out star that can average 115+ ppg in their midfield. Maybe Coniglio is that man. Gundagai may have been a surprising top 4 finisher to most (but not the bookies) last year, but the team is definitely trending the right way. They did trade out some scoring now (i.e. Rockliff) for future talent in the way of Curnow and 1st round picks, which suggests that Snoz didn't think they were quite in the premiership window yet, but next year, undoubtedly they will be.

12.00 Mount Beauty
The bookies perennial favourite has let ChiefBet down one too many time. Their best is amazing, but injuries and lack of depth seem to hurt them at the worst times. They are on this line of betting until they show us consistency.

14.00 Whitsundays
Despite boasting forward line depth that is the envy of most clubs, the Warriors will be stuck in mid-table again until at least next year when Rory Lobb finally gets the ruck status that this team desperately needs.

15.00 Birdsville
The Battlers have done an underrated job of re-building on the fly without completely bottoming out and boast a talented young side. While they don't have the firepower to challenge for finals in 2018, they will be a tough beat for a lot of sides.

18.00 Lovely Banks & Wineglass Bay
It seems that ChiefBet couldn't split these ladies last season and this season it proves to be the case once again. The climb from these two sides has been steady and will trend upwards again this year as their youth matures.

20.00 Charlie's Opening
A clear rebuild strategy is occurring from coach Bandit down at the opening, but unlike the Lefties, they at least have Merrett and Bontempelli as solid building blocks. Have managed to put together the youngest list in the comp and we should see some fruit in the next 2-3 years.

21.00 Wagga Wagga
In a very similar boat the Charlie's Opening, Wagga Wagga has had a significant overhaul of its list in the off-season (and mid to back end of last season) with a focus on youth. The Opening has Bont and Zach, the Wombats have Clayton Oliver and Dylan Shiel. It is a close run thing.

25.00 Nunawading
A number of retirements and delistings meant some clearing out of the dead wood. A lot hinges on the fitness of Nic Nat which is a more confusing sub-plot every day. Dow and Powell-Pepper provide hope for the future.

30.00 Larrakin Lagoon
Fleeced the Chooks in the Seb Ross and 1st rounder for Goldstein deal and got a couple of nice positional switches in Lachie Weller and Angus Brayshaw to lead their backline. The ruck division has some work to do, but should get a couple of jewels in the 2019 PSD that will provide hope. And, hey, they have premiership flags in their cabinet, so who really gives a stuff?
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Time for the 2019 edition @ChiefRussell ?

TheTassieHawk · Mar 14, 2019

Len said: ↑

Time for the 2019 edition @ChiefRussell ?
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$25.00 seems an unreasonably low price for the Nuffers last season in hindsight.

Surely between 200-1 and 500-1 would have been more likely, obviously the bookie is worried about post odds player trading shifting an all premium lineup in for a bag of chips in return.

This season we hope to be in the 3rd or 4th last line of betting but the loss of Simmo and delayed return of Nic Nat has to be factored in.

anthak · Mar 14, 2019

Len said: ↑

Time for the 2019 edition @ChiefRussell ?
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I think we all look forward to this so much
So much anticipation

ChiefRussell · Mar 16, 2019

Len said: ↑

Time for the 2019 edition @ChiefRussell ?
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Ask and you shall receive.

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2018 Premiership Odds

Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

anthak Moderator Staff Member

ChiefRussell Well-Known Member

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2018 Premiership Odds

Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

anthak Moderator Staff Member

ChiefRussell Well-Known Member

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