2018 Year of the Armadillo - A Review

Discussion in 'ORFFU' started by fresh, Sep 10, 2018.

  1. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    Unlike a dreaded annual performance review at work, this FU review won’t have back handed compliments, far fetched criticism and negative commentary throughout. What it does have in common though is it will dig up crap from the past and show you how you really farked up, or in the case of others, past stuff that just shows how you’re just so much better than everyone else.

    What makes up our stellar performer of 2018? Let’s have a look at Ararat’s best team based on 2018 season averages as at the final FU home and away round.

    Defence: Ryan (90.3, 14th), Stewart (85.3, 25th), Cutler (81.0, 39th), Rich (78.9, 49th)
    Midfield: Treloar (109.5, 9th), Gibbs (96.5, 37th), Ziebell (84.5, 80th), Henderson (82.0, 90th)
    Ruck: Gawn (127.5, 2nd)
    Forward: McDonald (97.6, 8th), Wingard (88.6, 23rd), Edwards (86.7, 31st), Anderson (79.5, 53rd)
    Interchange: Dahlhaus (77.1, 221st), Sheed (72.6, 263rd)

    Sum of season averages: 1,337.3
    Player (average, positional rank or overall rank for interchange players)

    If you allocated out the best averaging players by position across the league in reverse ladder order (so Blanchetown gets the highest averaging defender in Lloyd, Eden gets 2nd best Laird and so on) Ararat should have had the 18th, 36th, 54th and 72nd best averaging players across the mids, defenders and forwards. So the Armadillos’ D3 and F3 players (ranked 39th and 31st) are both batting above their averages and are the equivalent of, roughly, D2 and F2 players. Their D4 and F4 players are pretty much D3 and F3 averaging players. But the club’s M3 and M4 are averaging at the equivalent of M4 and M5 players respectively.

    It’s a very different team structure compared to previous FU Premiership winners. Unfortunately we don’t have accurate match day data for 2014. However, previous winners from 2015-2017 have typically had strong midfields and below average defence. Ararat of 2018 is the opposite. While the highest averaging players tend to be mids, having the 2nd best ruck (and 3rd highest averaging player overall) certainly helps in the quest for FU Premiership glory.

    We’ve never seen a 16-1 home and away season before. Ararat’s total points for of 21,929 was the 10th highest recorded. King Island’s 23,161 in 2015 was the highest recorded so far (and the only team to have recorded at least 23k points) but they managed 1 win less with 15. While we're talking about these 2 teams, both King Island (2014) and Ararat (2016) also have the 3rd highest point scored in a season of 22,328 and they recorded 11 and 15 wins respectively.

    upload_2018-9-10_21-19-46.png
     
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  2. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    Lady luck seems to play a part during the season. Ararat’s low score this year was in round 4 and it happened to be against Blanchetown who scored 1043 that weekend. From there it was a picture of consistency with no score under 1250 until their only loss in round 15 when they scored 1207 (their 2nd lowest score of the season). Their 14 wins in a row came to an end but they etched their name into the top of the longest winning streak leader board. The Armadillos seemed to peak in rounds 11-13 but it didn’t matter, once you make the final 8 it’s only the next 3 weeks that count and, more specifically, what happens on Grand Final weekend. While their first 2 finals weren’t confidence boosting wins their Grand Final score of 1318 was their 4th highest of the season and got them over the line for their 2nd FU Premiership.

    upload_2018-9-10_21-24-13.png
    *blue line is the average score over the last 3 games

    Korumburra on the other hand had a very slow start to the season suffering a 5 game losing streak from rounds 2 to 6. But then the Blowflies changed their mascot’s name to Yazz and after their lowest score of the season in round 5 the only way was up. Korumburra powered their way into the top 8 with 10 wins in a row, the equal 2nd longest in FU history. It’s interesting that both winning streaks by Ararat and Korumburra during the year came to an end when faced against each other. Unfortunately the Blowflies went too hard too early. Their dominance in the Elimination Final may have sapped too much out of the team and their scores slipped ultimately falling 35 points short in the decider.

    upload_2018-9-11_7-12-36.png
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
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  3. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    upload_2018-9-10_21-32-35.png

    upload_2018-9-10_21-32-56.png

    Rankings in the above table are based on points scored across the positions over the rounds. It doesn’t take into account points that could’ve been scored by players who weren’t named and it does include points from out of position players.

    The biggest improver from last year was Pearcedale, jumping 6 places in the total points scored rankings driven primarily by the mids and rucks improving 8 and 6 places respectively. However, their total wins didn’t change recording 9 wins in each of the last 2 seasons. They were probably a little unlucky missing out on finals. Other top improvers from last year in the total points scored rankings were Gisborne (+5), Ararat (+4) and Banchang (+4).

    On the flip side, Pakenham tumbled 7 places driven by weaker forwards and mids. The defenders and rucks improved but their depth (ie interchange) fell away. Serengeti fell 5 places, Blanchetown’s fall was limited to 4 places (you can’t go any further than bottom) and Staghorn also declined 4 to be the 14th best scoring side. It seems they were a little lucky they got into the top 8.

    Speaking of Blanchetown I’d imagine the coach doesn’t want to be reminded of season 2018. However, the positive is that even though the Bunyips went winless and equalled the longest losing streak in history they aren’t the worst side across an entire season if we look at points scored…they’re the 6th worst. That title goes to Manangatang of 2014 but even they somehow scrounged together 2 wins while being the only team to score under 15000 points, a good 2000 points worse than any other FU team in history.

    upload_2018-9-10_21-35-23.png
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
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  4. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    5 scores recorded this year made the top 20 highest scores of all FU time.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-36-51.png


    3 scores this year made the lowest 20 with one team being the first to score under 600.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-37-49.png


    3 matches this year made the top 20 highest scoring matches. The Elimination Final between Korumburra and Groote made it into number 6 on the list.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-39-2.png


    4 matches made it into the 20 lowest scoring matches list. 3 involved Blanchetown.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-40-37.png


    3 matches made it into the list of the top 20 winning margins. 2 involved Blanchetown and 2 involved Hughenden.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-42-3.png


    A 6 game winning streak will get a team onto the list of top 20 longest winning streaks. We saw 5 this year.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-44-2.png


    A 6 game losing streak will be in the top 20 longest. 4 made it onto the list this year.
    upload_2018-9-10_21-45-52.png
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
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  5. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    upload_2018-9-10_21-56-25.png

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    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
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  6. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    upload_2018-9-15_23-14-54.png

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    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
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  7. insider

    insider Moderator Staff Member

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    youre a modern marvel @fresh
    thanks for all the data mate, i love it!
     
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  8. YAD69

    YAD69 Moderator Staff Member

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    Wow @fresh awesome stuff. I'm salivating at the data mate :)
     
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  9. Batfink

    Batfink Well-Known Member

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    Sensational summary, I'm still trying to absorb it all. Well done @fresh :)
     
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  10. DamoH

    DamoH Well-Known Member

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  11. JPK

    JPK Moderator Staff Member

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    Great work @fresh
    Amazing stats as always.
    On behalf of all the 'FU, we appreciate the great work and the great stats. Keep it up mate!
     
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  12. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    @insider @Batfink @DamoH @JPK @YAD69
    Thanks guys, appreciate the posts.

    While watching tonight's match I realised I had forgotten to include a little bit of data around finals. It shows a little more about how lady luck plays a part in our great league.

    The chart below shows total points scored by all premiers and runners up over the 3 finals. Blue indicates the premier, gray the runner up.

    upload_2018-9-15_23-19-5.png

    The Buff of 2017 were strong winners last year, recording a total of 4213 points over the 3 finals weekends for an average of 1404 each week, the only team so far to record more than 4200 points. Christmas Island didn't lay down easily, recording a total of 4,137 points to be the strongest runner up over the final 3 weeks thus far and 3rd best performer.

    Ararat of 2014 was the lowest scoring premier until this year. 2018 saw a record low total points scored by the premier with just 3783 points. Our runner up scored 4095, a good 312 points more. To put it into perspective, our two Grand Final teams in 2015 (Groote and Blanchetown) scored 4127 and 3719 respectively over the 3 finals for a difference of 408 points. While 2018 isn't the largest difference in FU finals scoring power, it wasn't a small difference either and the chart below will show.

    However, it's not points scored over the 3 weeks that count but what happens on the last weekend. The 35 point margin was the smallest in FU Grand Finals we've seen and it just goes to show that it doesn't matter what happens in the previous 19 matches, it's how you score in the 20th one that matters.
    upload_2018-9-15_23-39-7.png
    Orange indicates GF margins. The bars show the difference in total points scored over the 3 weeks by both the premier and runner up.
     
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  13. Mick

    Mick Well-Known Member

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    Brilliant work! Cheers @fresh
     
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  14. eagle_eyed

    eagle_eyed Moderator

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    Great work @fresh love reading through your analysis.
     
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  15. YAD69

    YAD69 Moderator Staff Member

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    Brilliant Stuff @fresh
     
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  16. wrightbrendan

    wrightbrendan Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting read. Thanks @fresh!
     
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