Looking at getting rid of GAJ but not sure who for. Tossing up between Thompson,Rockliff,Boyd,Dal Santo and Priddis? Can anyone help make this decision easier? Already have Swan,Pendles,Selwood and Murphy
<blockquote>Quote from AngryAnt on May 2, 2012, 11:16 Not keen on J.Kennedy NumberWonG-uns?</blockquote> Already have Swan,Pendles and Selwood in the mids(all Rd.12 Bye) otherwise i would get JPK in a heartbeat! Surely cannot have 4/6 starting mids sharing the same bye? Or should i disregard that and get Kennedy anyway??
I think it's safe to assume no matter who you trade to will not average as high as Gary from now on. I say that based on his record of consistent high scoring that we all surely agree on. So, let's supposed to trade to a player who'll average 120 from here on in and play every remaining game, that player nets you 2,160 points from here on. Let's say Gary misses 3 from now on, and only plays 15 more games, but averages 130. He will score 1,950 from here. Is it worth burning a trade for 210 points across the entire season? If he maintains a 140 average, your trade is worth 60 points. Not only that, if he maintains either of those averages, you'll want to trade him back in, so now your trades are worth 105 points each, or 30 points each, respectively. I'll be holding.
By the sounds of it, i'm the only* one willing to wait on Gaz. Ive currently got Pendles, Selwood, Rockliff, Mitchell, OldMac, Magnet, with Pfeiffer, and Gaz on the pine. So i think if he's back in 2 it's not worth the trade. Plus the fact that Murphy will be my last prem mid and he may be rested makes the decision easy. edit: and Midge too
Trading Ablett out can net $140k+ depending on the premium mid your bringing in for him, facilitating the immediate upgrade of a fwd rookie to a fwd premium which could net an extra 150 points in just that 3 game period. Such a trade will also allow for the retention of Magner or Shiel who would have had to have been traded out this week to facilitate that same forward upgrade, costing potentially another $100k that could have been gained by keeping one of them. Magner or Shiel are also potentially higher scoring playing m6's than the mid rookie player that has been downgraded for either one of them to allow for that forward upgrade.
Personally ill be making the trade. The midfield is where all the points are at, so not willing to miss out on guaranteed points. Yes ill have to trade him back in, but the player I'm getting now would have been part of my long term plan anyhow, to have 6 premium mids. Can get 1 round 12 bye player. Better value in Pendlebury or JPK?
For me I think he has to go. If you reside yourself to the fact that it may take more than 2 downgrades to get him in (very likely) then pulling the trigger seems easier. Its to Murphy or Swan for me. I've got Pendles so to avoid bye issues I think Murphy may be a better option. As long as you keep a cushion of cash if possible from other downgrades/upgrades, this overflow could be used on upgrading to Ablett after his bye. Missing 3 weeks + bye will hurt teams who hold him I think.
Midge there's a few other factors at play: - the points scored by coverage needs to be considered in the mix here - how much trust you have that GAJ will actually return on time (sounding like Sandi saga at the moment) - when GAJ returns he needs to immediately hit a high score or come down in price, he could easily drop 100k like Pendles with just one vest or average game - and that 100k will be used by those who traded him out to get back in more easily - players can load up with more premiums who have the bye in other bye rounds, then get Ablett after the bye and keep the points on the board during the bye weeks - I'm thinking more an upgrade in R12/13 into a mid prem for R11/R12, then get Ablett possibly declined to 600k at R14 - the opposition Ablett has played and will play needs to be considered; certainly a return at full power against GWS would make a trade problematic - as you said 3 is probably the limit to holding him (2 injured plus the bye), but more than 3 or 2 and then returning at less than 100% would tilt it in favour of the trade outs - the points a replacement would score in the rest of the season - the ability to turn rookies to Ablett (all depends on his price decline, if it occurs) - points that can be scored in another line - particularly if it ensures emergencies or poor performing rookies don't play (here's looking at you Sith) - points that Ablett or replacement can score as captain - particularly dangerous if Ablett returns against GWS but gets an early sub vest because the game is dusted and therefore scores <100. It's not quite cut and dried trade. I say if he's out for 2 more and misses GWS then a trade was the best option, but you'd only really know this for certain by waiting until Friday of next week. By then the horse will have bolted. So you either trust GC or you don't, you trust GAJ ability to return unhindered and back or you don't.
For the record, I saw the incident, heard internal bruising to the knee and thought, he won't be back in 2. So I traded him last week.
great discussion folks, thanks for all the astute input. From what I can gather, it's a good idea to trade him, and also a good idea perhaps not to, depending. This is the classic SC conundrum, and what does one do when faced suchly? One thinks thinks thinks (say that 10 times). How much is a trade worth? 24 is a lot. Bye rounds a new unknown for us all. Almost all logic points to a trade - it's only hope that points to a Keep. I can't say a hope is good SC technology...
If just aiming for league win, hold him, but anyone seriously going for overall points would've had to out him last week.
I am keeping Ablett, but I believe my two trades have covered his points. Hale downgraded to big O - means Giles is now on field and that means based on averages, I gain 20 points (lets round it down to 10 because of Hale's sub-affected score) Shiel (had to pick over Magner and Old Mac) to Pendlebury, I lose at best 10 points on average. Pretty good deal? Or I could trade Ablett down to a rookie, but Horse is my no.1 option and he won't moo for another week so there isn't enough money gained to warrant trading Ablett out then back in. Add Shaw and Dempsey finally coming off the bench and I think I'm onto a winner here...
Thread title should be Ablett Recovery to be doubled. RE: The arguments we were having last week here. http://tooserious.net/forum/afl-group2/afl-forum2/ablett-recovery-to-be-halved-thread1872
@ AngryAnt-Is it worth getting JPK in my side knowing i already have Selwood,Swan,Pendles and Murphy? 3 of which have the same bye(getting JPK will make it 4 in rd.12). Like i said earlier, do i get JPK anyway and just disregard the byes knowing how well his started and could continue? Or do i factor the byes in and go say a Rockliff or Thompson(Rd.11 bye)?