AFL: Round 15 Review

Discussion in 'Blog' started by stripey, Jul 1, 2019.

By stripey on Jul 1, 2019 at 9:02 AM
  1. stripey

    stripey Well-Known Member

    Jan 3, 2016
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    What an interesting week it was thanks to big names going down...

    Cripps, Gawn, Danger, Daniel... all popular selections that are going to give coaches the night sweats this week as we await news from the selection tables... How can you deal with such carnage with 7 trades and $94k in the bank..... How????

    Anyway, still having ROB in my team is working a treat, a shame my other ruckman is Gawn not Grundy though... I thought my 2320 was going to be under par, especially with Danger as my captain but it turns out it was position 8451 for the week and dragged my team up 126 places to 1117 overall... :D (2536 was my original projected score so still fairly flat with the final result)

    In other news, my daughters Trading Games team cracked the top 1000 overall so pretty pumped about that... she does have all the players listed above and only 4 trades left so this could be fairly shortlived however...o_O

    How'd everyone else go, what are your planned trades, have you 'completed' your team yet???
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Discussion in 'Blog' started by stripey, Jul 1, 2019.

    1. headmandude
      Ended up with 2418 with the C on Gawn. Moving Danger to the mids to replace Cripps and allowing Miers on the field paid off.
      4 trades left and 110k. Backline could be upgraded slightly but may need to be on an A’s needs basis.
      Will be sweating on Danger, Cripps and Gawn this week!
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    2. port_leschenault
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    3. stripey
      34 weeks for a hamstring?
      With Gawn a potential out Hoff or Lycett might need to come in to trigger my DPP cover... brought in as my DPP.. swapping Daniel means I likely end up keeping J Cameron though which was not my plan
      Last edited: Jul 1, 2019
    4. Len
    5. TheTassieHawk
      2320 was my best week of the season and a rise from 48k to 42k in overall ranking.

      My target is now to make a prelim final in my work league so with 9 trades left I plan on keeping 4-5 for finals while also aiming to improve my overall to between 25k-29k (currently 400-550 points behind this range). by season end.

      If I was trying to complete my side quick smart then Drew at F6 and Clarke at M8 would be the priorities. But with Hore and Logue at D5, D6 and not much cash sitting on the bench the defence might end up well short of true premium status. Milking Logue, Clarke and Hind to the max as well as bringing in any quick rising rookies that present from now could be key to getting a competitive team on the park by Round 20.
      • Like Like x 1
    6. Penske file
      Penske file
      Funny you should tell me this, as you will never guess who I brought in last week for the Hoff, some little guy from the doggies, when your season is going badly it is nice to give it a kick along.
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    7. TheTassieHawk
    8. DanJS
      2333 and have crept back inside the top 14k. Marshall has turned out to be the handiest SuperCoach impulse buy I've made in a long time. Luke Ryan, another impulse buy, so far, a flop.

      Should be able to trade one down and Stack up to Bont this week and then aiming for J Kelly to complete the team. But if Gawn misses, considering looking at Ladhams if he plays for coverage and a bit of cash generation.
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    9. port_leschenault
      His continued form and scoring goes against all SC logic. Well done for picking him.
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    10. stripey
      I saw his third game and that was enough for me to bring him straight in.. Marshall & ROB are the major decisions that really went right for me this season
      • Like Like x 1
    11. stowie
      Couple of interesting names with Westhoff and Rocky likely back.

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    12. IPOD
      I have Dylan Moore as my F6 and 300k so looking at moving him on bringing Kelly back to fill my F6 and move Moore- to either of the following
      Option 1 -Sloane
      Option 2 - Bont
      Option 3 - Yeo/Shuey
      Option 4 - Treloar
      Option 5 - Oliver

      Also toying with Gawn to Grundy...Is Max a certain out....should i trade or cop the 0
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 1
    13. ike2112
      Its been a s**tshow this week hasn't it.
      As if most defenders - Lloyd, Houli, Ryan, Smith, Logue - scoring in the 60s and Sicily 83 wasn't bad enough, then there's the carnage.

      3 weeks ago my wife's Trading Games side was tracking well, was looking to bring in Macrae, Neale and Hurn then look to upgrade Cameron later (and having Danger, Ziebell, Kelly, Daniel, Marshall and Dunkley already the fwds were looking fine with some DPP flexibility).
      Then I stuffed it and brought in Neale first, when Macrae's gone big 2 weeks in a row, can't now afford the trading plan of getting him and Hurn in this week for Rocky and Brodie Smith. I'd meant to bring in Macrae first, but spent so long looking at various end options I forgot I hadn't reversed changes and it stuck with Neale and Logue.
      Gawn, Cripps, Danger, Daniel are all in this side, as is Rocky who has been giving me the fits. Naish, Gardner dropped last week, now Baker and probably Hately dropped so that's my bench cover nearly obsolete...

      Realistically I am going to have to stick with Rocky till the end I think. Through DPP I can bring Macrae in for Daniel and swing Danger forward - but he has to play as I have no forward bench cover. Duursma will have to cover for Cripps, and I hope Gawn plays - I'm not wasting a trade on a backup ruck at this stage.
      If Danger and Gawn are late outs, I'm running with 16...

      And on top of that, I really intended to upgrade Brodie Smith to Shannon Hurn this week, and I can afford to, but I don't know if I should burn the trade or not. I'd be down to only 4.
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    14. ike2112
      I picked a bunch of winners, just didn't have courage to stick with some of them. I had Lycett, but actually dropped him for Marshall. In same team I picked up ROB so that's not been terrible. But in other team I was late on Marshall, had Lobb and bottled it on him just before he got moved into ruck and scored well. Dropped Dunkley, he picked up scoring, had to get him back in.
      When I look back at some of the players I had in rounds 3-6, if I'd actually just been kidnapped and all someone did in my absence was upgrade the rookies when due, I think I would be top 1000. Instead I have actively fucked up my own side with my cleverness.
      • Like Like x 1
    15. stripey
      I saw an analysis of last season that showed that it was actually possible for a ‘set and forget’ side to have won last year... with just changes to the Captain and subbing the bench each week
    16. stripey
      Actually it would have got to 77th overall and didnt have any changes to VC/C or emergencies.. see below extract

      THERE’S at least one in every league. A SuperCoach team completely abandoned by its coach.
      One that idles through the season being obliterated by everyone else in the competition. While the rest of us diligently read articles, listen to podcasts, and invest quality time at work discussing trade strategies, these “ghost” teams pose a constant and unwanted reminder that for some sad individuals, SuperCoach is not the be-all and end-all of life.
      It’s a terrifying thought, but could one of these ghost teams take home the $50,000 overall prize?
      In what could only be considered the SuperCoach equivalent to remembering that back in 2008 your mate convinced you to invest in bitcoin, could a team that was set up at the start of the season and then forgotten about win it all?
      Zero trades used, same captain, same vice-captain, same starting positions, same emergencies, and same ignorant coach not knowing the true thrill of coaching an imaginary team of players online.
      Thankfully, the answer is no. In 2018, it was not possible. But with a total score of 52,935, which would earn you 77th position in a competition with almost 200,000 teams, the best possible ghost team does get hauntingly close.
      Talk about a win for humanity. To those 76 teams who outscored the ghost, the community thanks you.

      Captain Brodie Grundy
      Vice Elliot Yeo
      Tom Doedee $355300 - DEF
      Kade Simpson $501000 - DEF
      Jack Crisp $448100 - DEF
      Jayden Short $381600 - DEF
      Jake Lloyd $466600 - DEF
      Elliot Yeo $531300 - DEF
      Lachlan Murphy $153600 - Sub-DEF
      Brody Mihocek $102400 - Sub-DEF (E)
      Patrick Cripps $589600 - MID
      Timothy Kelly $432500 - MID
      Stephen Coniglio $498400 - MID
      Tom Mitchell $574900 - MID
      Jaeger O'Meara $416500 - MID
      Angus Brayshaw $369400 - MID
      Lachie Hunter $506300 - MID
      Jack Macrae $676400 - MID
      Jacob Dawson $102400 - Sub-MID
      Nick Holman $271900 - Sub-MID (E)0***
      James Bell $102400 - Sub-MID
      Brodie Grundy $610200 - RUC
      Max Gawn $669400 - RUC
      Tom Jeffries $102400 - Sub-RUC
      Devon Smith $467800 - FWD
      Tom Hawkins $436200 - FWD
      Luke Breust $483900 - FWD
      Bayley Fritsch $310100 - FWD
      Justin Westhoff $540200 - FWD
      Josh Dunkley $377200 - FWD
      Jack Henry $278000 - Sub-FWD (E)
      Jack Higgins $273300 - Sub-FWD (E)

      This team could have finished 77th overall without a single trade.
      The idea that you could set this team up back in mid-March, never touch it again and come 77th is both a testament to lazy coaches and borderline offensive.
      Granted, there are an alarming number of mid-priced players. In fact, there are a total of 12 players in the team with a starting value between $200,000 and $500,000. It is generally an accepted rule of thumb in SuperCoach that players in this bracket tend to be risky picks at the start of the season as it is hard to know which players will step up to become premiums in any given year.
      Well and truly falling in the risky business bracket at the start of season 2018 were: Jack Crisp, Jayden Short, Lachie Hunter, Josh Dunkley and arguably Luke Breust.
      Getting the bench players right was also a key to the ghost team’s success. They are not shown here but there are a number of occasions when an emergency will have a high score just when required. For example, Jaeger O’Meara did not play in Round 9, which allowed Nick Holman’s 122 points from the bench to count as emergency. Very smooth.
      Just as in the Optimal SuperCoach team this year we see Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy and a rookie make up the rucks. The benefit of having such reliable stock in the rucks is that one of the four emergency positions is not required for this position.
      Two emergency players in the forward line is potentially reckless considering that if only one emergency is required, then the lower point scorer of the two counts. But for this team, it’s a strategy that pays off. In Round 5, Tom Hawkins and Bayley Frisch both do not play, which means both Jack Henry’s 48 and Jack Higgins’ 91 are counted. Likewise in Round 10 with Justin Westhoff and Josh Dunkley not playing, Higgins’ 51 and Henry’s 99 are both counted. Very satisfying to see.
      Grundy being made captain makes sense. He did after all finish as the highest pointscorer in the game. Elliot Yeo as vice-captain is a little surprising given he finished as the 10th highest-point scorer for the season. The reason for this is that during Grundy’s bye in Round 13, which was the only game he missed for the season, Yeo scored a team-high 144 points.
      As with the Optimal SuperCoach Team article, I used Mixed-Integer Programming to run this analysis. It is almost like this entire field of mathematics was accidentally designed to answer hypothetical questions for fantasy football in hindsight.
      So for those of you who made a beautiful team at the start of the year and proceeded to neglect it all its life, there is still hope you won’t be a terrible coach forever. After all, 77th is not bad for kicking your heels up all year.
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