note: this was written after round 8, prices / breakevens etc have changed, the principle remains the same.

Its at that time of year where everyone is looking at selling those
rookies, claiming a healthy little profit and using the profits on that
gun point scorer. However as usual making sure you use those measly 20
trades in the most effective manner is paramount, and this is where
your rookies breakeven is important.

Often people will look at their rookies and as soon as their
breakeven rises above their average they believe the player has
'peaked'. However this is not always the case and can cost you
significant dollars, and those precious trades. To illustrate this i am
going to use the Melbourne rookie midfielder Cale Morton.

Now Cale is one of the prime rookies looking at being sold for a
profit. Before round 8 he had a price of $216,500 an average of 59.29
and a breakeven of 61. After putting in two weeks of 39 and 49 (and
dropping $4,700) it looked like his time as a cash cow was over and i
am sure many people decided to trade.

However what you must remember is that a price of $216,500 is not
hard to maintain. Cale promptly dropped a 95 point game (which is not
his highest score, that was 97 in round 3 so he knows how to rack them
up) and he increased by $7,100. More importantly his breakeven has now
dropped all the way back down to 10! Yep, 10!! Plus he gets the benefit
of a score of 95 in his average for 3 weeks.

What does this mean? Well if he scores 63 (his current average) for
the next 2 weeks he will increase another $32,000 and still have a
breakeven below his average!!!!

So, which would you prefer? A
used trade and a potential saving of say $5 - $10k if Cale puts in a
bad one? Or to save the trade and maybe hold out for some more serious
gains?

Now obviously this isnt always the case. Everyones favorite cash
cow, Josh Hill, is an example where holding out will have cost you over
$25k the past three weeks (but he is still up over $100k) and I have
heard many people say they got rid of him at his peak. Using the same
principle would have seen these people sell Cale Morton before round 8
too - I wonder if they are talking about that decision?

At the end of the day trading will always come down to numerous
other factors too – like the need to use those profits elsewhere but if
you dont need to trade that rookie yet, it may be worth holding out
for an extra week or two, at least until that breakeven is well above
their average....