Best Buys - Round 12

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 8, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Jun 8, 2016 at 2:17 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    NRL tips are out (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) – hope you guys have been reading these (nearly 40% returns now year to date!), as is our 3rd test write-up for the England v Sri Lanka series (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!tips-and-bets/zxtux).

    So as I stated in the pre-text, I’m going to try and take the byes into account, which for this week means I’m going to name a BoTW who plays in the first 2 rounds – I’m not sure if this is a great strategy, but why not? (Seriously though, feel free to give us your thoughts on a good bye-round strategy.)

    This week we picking a mid, a mid who has a bye in round 15.

    Well just like previous seasons this mid has had a rocky start to the year. He doesn’t currently have the best average, and yep he is a bit of a risk. In fact you probably even had him, and have since dropped him for obvious reasons. But 3rd times a charm – seriously, in previous seasons this player gets better the 3rd time he makes his way back into the team. He showed us last week why you want him and only (another) injury will stop him now. I am of course talking about the mid you hate yourself for picking – Rockliff.

    Cheaper than most mids at $500k, he is more than capable of producing regular 120+ scores… Yes he is also more than capable of getting injured, but as I earlier eluded too, he has previously missed less games when he comes back the 3rd time. He also has a relatively easy fixture this week (Freo) and his price could easily go up $50k+ in the next 2 rounds. So if you need a mid, have limited cash and kind of need to take a bit of a risk to get back in the game – get on this week’s Buy of the Week – Tommy Rockliff.

    Again, the format below is:
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:

    DEF Samuel Collins (FRE) - 117k (+56k) - AVG=80 (great start and looks a lock to retain spot with no Johnson and Pearce)
    DEF Harry Marsh (SYD) - 117k (+23k) - AVG=46 (Ted Richards will miss another week but after that job security is uncertain)
    M/D Thomas Cole (WCE) - 117k (+21k) - AVG=45 (Likely to lose spot this week with McGovern fit)
    DEF Thomas Lee (STK) - 124k (+42k) - AVG=67 (He should come in this week with Fisher, Dempster and Goddard all injured)

    Keepers:
    DEF Josh Gibson (HAW) - 478k (+12k) - AVG=100
    M/D Jimmy Bartel (GEE) - 506k (+5k) - AVG=96
    DEF Matthew Boyd (WBD) - 547k (-4k) - AVG=103
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 665k (-26k) - AVG=117 (Shaw is a sure thing)

    Midfielders
    Rookies:

    MID Matthew Goodyear (COL) - 124k (+1k) - AVG=26 (Don’t know if I’d be investing at that average!)

    Keepers: (There are lots of good mids – this list is not exhaustive, and yes guys like Gray, Priddis and Steven can all be considered if you wish)
    MID Tom Rockliff (BRL) - 500k (+14k) - AVG=97 (Buy of the Week)
    MID Joel Selwood (GEE) - 515k (+11k) - AVG=109 (Another option in you don’t have $600k to spend)
    MID Tom Mitchell (SYD) - 538k (+32k) - AVG=109 (we added him to the list last week and he didn’t disappoint)
    MID Edward CURNOW (CAR) - 538k (+17k) - AVG=105 (last week’s score and that 3 game average were enough to get him on the list – but he isn’t a dead-set gun like others on the list, could be a POD if you need to gamble)
    MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 542k (-5k) - AVG=112
    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 559k (+15k) - AVG=115 (Ablett is looking very good again)
    MID Trent Cotchin (RIC) - 578k (+1k) - AVG=111
    MID Josh P. Kennedy (SYD) - 599k (+4k) - AVG=110
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 604k (+5k) - AVG=125 (If you don’t have him, his price is low by his standards)
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 612k (-3k) - AVG=120
    MID Lachie Neale (FRE) - 625k (-1k) - AVG=117
    MID Scott Pendlebury (COL) - 653k (-10k) - AVG=120 (a gun, but his price should come down)

    Rucks
    Rookies:

    R/F Majak DAW (NTH) - 244k (+43k) - AVG=92 (Don’t get seduced by average – likely to lose spot with Goldy due to return)

    Keepers:
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 550k (+6k) - AVG=117
    RUC Nic Naitanui (WCE) - 569k (-3k) - AVG=114 (May be injured – so look at Gawn or Goldy)
    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 595k (+15k) - AVG=118 (assuming he is named of course)

    Forwards
    Rookies:

    FWD Brodie Murdoch (STK) - 218k (-4k) - AVG=40 (May pay the price for a poor performance against the Crows)

    Keepers:
    FWD Brent Harvey (NTH) - 453k (-2k) - AVG=93 (Boomer is booming once more)
    FWD Josh JENKINS (ADE) - 463k (+31k) - AVG=94
    M/F Daniel Wells (NTH) - 463k (+22k) - AVG=102 (Wells is well priced)
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 510k (0k) - AVG=104 (Merrett still has merit)
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 577k (-6k) - AVG=116

    Still a week away:
    M/D Jesse Joyce (GCS) - 102k - AVG=28
    DEF Logan Austin (PTA) - 124k - AVG=66
    MID Kade Stewart (HAW) - 102k - AVG=90 (A great first game – but wait and see if he keeps his spot)
    MID Jarrad Jansen (BRL) - 124k - AVG=98 (Another great first game – but in his case, lets see if he can back it up)
    MID Jack TRENGOVE (MEL) - 157k - AVG=60 (Could be a great pick up in a week – or even now?)
    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 514k - AVG=112
    FWD Michael Apeness (FRE) - 124k - AVG=23
    FWD James Rose (SYD) - 155k - AVG=73
    FWD Will Hams (ESS) - 158k - AVG=54
    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 424k - AVG=101 (Wait on Waite - but if he returns to his early form you will want him)
    M/F Aaron Hall (GCS) - 431k - AVG=97 (may come down a bit, but you could buy this week)
    M/F Luke DAHLHAUS (WBD) - 519k - AVG=105 (again, may come down a bit, but you could buy this week)

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL, NRL and Cricket
     
    • Like Like x 2

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 8, 2016.

    1. walesy
      walesy
      Gogogo Rocky! Reckon he's the perfect high-risk-high-reward candidate.

      Players up the top end shouldn't be taking the risk, but those teams that are up there, but still several hundred behind- makes for a great pod against those up higher.

      Also carries a price which can't be beat.
    2. graeme
      graeme
      Read about a bye strategy that appeals called the Meatloaf - "two out of three ain't bad."
      • Like Like x 2
    3. RPritch
      RPritch
      Each to their own, but if I was looking for a Mid with the bye in Rd15 I would pick any of (assuming they each weren't owned):
      Dangerfield, Neale, Selwood, Ward, S.Mitchell or Ziebell this week. Simply don't think I could handle having Rocky again. Didn't have him in his 130+ avg year, then traded him in at that 'good' time to trade him in last year to trade him back out, then started with him this year and traded him out
    4. Senator96
      Senator96
      Yes buyer beware with Rockliff. I have had him all year and finally got rewarded with that performance on the weekend but that was one game and he has broken down twice early in games, has spent way too long on the sidelines and the same thing happened when I had him last year. The only reason I haven't traded him out previously is Ive had so many other problems to deal with this year. His scoring ability when he plays and sees out a full game cant be questioned though and like Gawn probably ideal for the loophole.

      I think Selwood is great buy this week and as a good run during the SC finals. I don't have enough coin to go Brown-Collins and Hewett-Selwood though so will need to wait for teams and see if there are any other moves that can be done. Parker looks very good value too.
      • Like Like x 2
    5. RPritch
      RPritch
      Joel Selwood would be my pick out of the mids for being underpriced and rd15 bye, better option than either Danger or Rocky imo, but I already have Selwood anyway
    6. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      I just can't see myself spending another trade bring Rocky back into my side. Ugh, he's like the Daisy Thomas of midfield prems.
    7. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      There are safer options, but they either cost more or come with their own risks.

      Take Selwood (he is in the best buy list as well) - he is less likely to get injured, but more likely to have a form slump - he has had 13 sub-90 games in the 31 games he has played in 2015 and 2016 - not many of his low score lined up with injuries either. Prior to that he was a lot more consistent, but again not without his risks.

      Rockliff is a big injury risk, but when he plays he'll score well if not injured - whilst he has had 7 sub-90 scores in the 21 games he has played in 2015 and 2016 (so more as a %), 5 of those occurred in either the game he got injured or the game he came back from injury.

      But then again, we have a website which gives bet recommendations - so maybe I just like to gamble ;)
    8. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      I am planning on a trade free week if goldy is back in and other selections are favourable

      Rookie wise Collins cash appeals but his bye doesn't and I would have to swing a DM into the guts to get him. If Lee gets named his Rd13 bye would be hard to skip even if I do need to make the same shift.

      Next week I expect to have $545k to $615k to spend on a mid premo for M6, which should be enough to get someone averaging 110plus. Again Rocky and Neales round 15 bye doesn't appeal.
    9. Boulderdash
      Boulderdash
      Currently ranked just on 13 000 so please take my suggestion below with a grain of salt :D

      I was looking to reopen my Mid/Fwd link (with a Fwd rookie) & pick up Collins for cash gen.

      So a left field thought - why not Gorringe?

      He has a BE of -11 and with Kruezer being doubtful, will probably have a decent run.
      However, I am concerned that NicNat will be rested the week before the bye, so his achilles can have a decent rest.
      Which is leading me to Daw. Hmm.
      The players being traded out are Hewett & BenKen (allowing for the DPP movement below)

      If I do the trades, I will end up with 10 trades left & $ 612K & minimum trading during the byes.

      upload_2016-6-8_23-30-9.png

      Of course, teams sheets on thursday makes all decsions null & void.
    10. rich12345
      rich12345
      Tossing up between 3 mid's within my price range
      Option 1 - Rocky
      Option 2 - Selwood
      Option 3 - Gray

      Thoughts?
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 7
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 1
    11. Nick
      Nick
      Current trade musings are
      Hewett to Selwood (
      Tippa (if rested) to Lee (should get games with Dempster and Fisher out, been on the bubble forever)

      Then should have plenty of cash to go J Smith to Pendles after their round 13 Bye, and M Adams (rd 14 bye) to Simpson/Docherty (R13 bye)
      Just got to weather round 13 bye then trade up to players from round 13 bye group.

      Thoughts?

      TU: Good idea
      TD: Think again
      • Like Like x 6
    12. choppers
      choppers
      With Phillips due back this week or next, I don't like the Gorringe trade.
      • Like Like x 2
    13. choppers
      choppers
      Rocket has dropped Hall for this round......
      • Like Like x 1
    14. walesy
      walesy
      What a year hey!
    15. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I look forward to seeing the 22 players he names ahead of him...
      • Like Like x 3
    16. lukus
      lukus
      I'm looking for a mid with the R15 bye to trade Hewett to. Would really appreciate people's thoughts.

      TU - Rocky @ $500K
      TD - Ward @ $542K

      I already have Danger & Selwood so the other option is Neale but I don't think he is good value @ $625K. You want a 125 average for that price.
      • Dislike Dislike x 7
      • Like Like x 4
    17. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      I don't mind paying $600k or thereabouts for the genuine elite players, and Neale looks like he could be that from now to the end of season. That said he could get cheaper with 1 bad game this week or next.

      Rocky & Ward are good value if you can handle Rocky's potential injury problems and are happy that Ward will turn his form around.
    18. thokash
      thokash
      Given Hall has a R13 bye we won't see him for 2 weeks minimum, so I'm prepared to cut my losses and give him the flick.

      Now, the person I want to trade him to is Daniel Wells. The same Daniel Wells I traded out 4 weeks ago when I heard his achilles problems were back, which proved to be greatly exaggerated.

      Here are the pros:
      - Current top 6 forward
      - Underpriced for a 100 average player, BE of 36
      - Fits the R15 bye perfectly with Zorko my only other FWD missing that week
      - 50% of the comp no longer have Wells as a unique from me

      Cons:
      - Injury risk, possibly rested although with the break after R23 he might make it there from his R15 bye
      - North's draw gets a hell of a lot harder from here

      Current forward line is:
      Zorko, Dusty, ZMerrett, Hall*, Tippa [DPP with Adams], Kerridge, Petracca, Cox [DPP with Wyatt]

      Right now 4 missing in R13 and 3 missing in R14. If not Wells I'd get a R14 FWD, then trade Tippa/Petracca to a R13 forward before that bye.

      TU: Wells IN
      TD: One of the R14 byes in (eg. Dahlhaus, Franklin, JJK, Tippett, etc..)
      • Dislike Dislike x 2
      • Like Like x 1
    19. pollypies
      pollypies
      Who to bring in this week? Will obviously keep for remainder of season...
      :1: Hanneberry
      :2:. Neale
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 3
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 1

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