Best Buys - Round 2

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, Apr 4, 2018.

By port_leschenault on Apr 4, 2018 at 11:58 PM
  1. port_leschenault

    port_leschenault Administrator Staff Member

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    Firstly, I want everyone to realise how great the TS stats section is. Seriously go clink on the link and check out all the information on different tabs. It's a gold mine of information. Huge props to @walesy always delivering the goods that we enjoy. Onto the article.

    I want to also bring attention to something that is really useful that I think is new (or I've only discovered it this season). When on SC site itself and on their Player Research tab there is now a column called $ Per Point. It's basically how many dollars each point a player gets is worth, the lower the better.

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    It highlights perfectly why rookies are so important and even if a rookie doesn't score lots, they are still valuable to our sides. Take for comparison Dom Barry and Andrew Brayshaw. Despite Brayshaw making more points (120 v 106), Barry is the better rookie because at his price his scores are worth $2213 per point compared to Brayshaw's $3305, and will make us more money in the long run (assuming he plays).

    As @anthak mentioned in his HS article, cheap rookies are the bedrock of any SC team and this is more evidence of it. All conveniently located on the site to help us with trading. Thanks VS!

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    Player of the Week - Tim Kelly (Geelong)
    This week is always more about taking a long view at all the rookies so not going to spend much time here especially as we should all have him but after 2 big tons, Kelly is clearly the best of the lot and could very well take Barlow's "rookie keeper" mantle. All in a team that's got 3 of the most talked about mids in the comp. Impressive.

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    I've separated all the rookies (I've defined this as those under $220k, arbitrary definition but a line had to be made somewhere) into their positions and will talk about them all as a group. Easier that way because my wordcount was getting too high doing them individually.

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    Defence is the smallest of the 3 main positions but there's a lot of good quality rookies to be had. The first 5 on that list should all be great cash cows and job security seems to be good, with Murphy the shakiest. Guthrie looks ok but at his price I'd have him only if you already have the other 4 and you don't want to use extra cash to get Bonner.

    Naughton isn't delivering for his price, so if owners don't think he or the Bulldogs can turn it around, then consider moving him on either to one of the main 4 or Bonner if applicable. Anyone selecting Brown is a masochistic or a Zac Dawson addict jonesing for a spud fix.


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    Mids are probably a bit lighter than we'd hope for or had in previous years but we still have some good options. Kelly and Holman are playing as you'd hope mature-agers would and look set to make a lot of money. The likes of Fogarty, Banfield and Barry should all be making money too if they keep playing. It's an important if - all have shaky job security and could just as easily be dropped this round or next if form or bad losses dictate it.

    The others here are all your expensive options. I personally wouldn't trust Jacobs score last round because he could always end up tagging but he is a more seasoned vet, so if he is getting the mid time should stay in team and do well. Don't trade into any of the others but don't trade out specifically unless you need to get on the bandwagon of another rookie. They should all have the best job security of the new players (except maybe Clark) and a good score in Rd 3 is worth more than one in the last 2 rounds because it will stay in 3-round price rises for longer.


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    English is on his own and it seems a bit silly to talk about just one player but he is a unique case. He is playing and looks like a decent cash cow so far and Bulldogs should persist with him even if he's having a bad game so it's obvious why he's so popular. One thing to consider with bringing him in his how it affects your Captain strategy if you're trying to use Cameron or Olango etc as a loophole option in the ruck. It may not be worth if it all your players are playing and you can't get that second chance to improve your C score.


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    Forwards, forwards everywhere. Have we really had so many options? The problem here, apart from being spoilt for choice is that there is a lot of potential land mines. Waterman may have the third-best BE but if Kennedy is back in Rd4/5 and he's dropped then you could end up holding onto him for a long time. Ryan is clear #1 and I'd say Fritsch is number 2. After that it really comes down to personal preferences.

    So you have anyone on that list with a negative BE, then hold onto them, it's not worth gambling on someone else. Though do note ZGL owners that he is in doubt for this weekend and he doesn't have the best of job security to begin with.

    Trading wise, you really should only be trading out an expensive guy like Rayner. Even if Fogarty isn't looking as good as the others, if you have him but have more pressing concerns then address them first. Marshall is doing well but will rely on goals, Gowers has unknown job security, Garlett/Venables don't look like having a high ceiling.


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    Going to list only the players with best BE here. Going higher in price and you enter the mid-price zone which is quite a gamble you really shouldn't make once the game has started. As discussed in previous thread, these players are more risky to select because there's no guarantee these guys will continue their scoring which is their main drawcard since they wont make as much as cheaper rookies. History says none are likely to be keepers, and only 1 or 2 will be worth it as cash cows. Caveat emptor.

    Bonner is the most likely candidate, he has strong job security now and playing a SC friendly game on a team that should be winning a lot. Christensen has the history to be a 80-90ppg player across a season. Fisher has had a major role change and could be worth it if this is him breaking out. The others are likely to depend on midfield time and role in respective sides. If these guys do pay off then they will peak early so be prepared for that if when it comes.

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    That's it! Hope this helps you have an idea on how to set up your team the best for price changes and how to set up for the rounds ahead. Let us know in the comments your trade dilemmas and any queries/commects you have.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2018
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, Apr 4, 2018.

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    1. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Great article @port_leschenault.

      I will be prioritising rookies over the expensive mid $250k players even though they are so tempting and I have little faith in Naughton/Rayner turning it around.

      I will also be considering dpp and which rookies get named for their 2nd game this week giving me a chance to spread corrections over 2 rounds if I am not convinced on this week's options.

      It's also worth remembering that a poor rookie can turn it around with one big spike score (ie Ryan last week) which is where JS and SC friendly roles really become important.
      • Like Like x 2
    2. Len
      Len
      Great guide mate, well done
      • Like Like x 1
    3. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Brilliant stuff pl.
      Have fortunately picked most of the right rooks to date so will prob hold zgl as a loop for a bit. Will give Naughton a bit more of a chance, as the main alternative is Bonner and I can’t see the value in a trade and $100k more for the potential cash he might make. Bonners best score to date will only feature once in his rolling avg so I’m not as bullish on his money making scope.
      Still tempted on Fisher (for Lambert) but I may see reason by Friday night.
    4. graeme
      graeme
      Super stuff @port_leschenault - really nice to get a fresh perspective. And yes the TS Stats are stunning. The fish has been in great form, he has very fast hands. Perhaps opposition coahes have focussed on the better known names? Long may they do so.

      #Lambert must go
      • Like Like x 2
    5. Jason
      Jason
      :thumbsu::thumbsu:
      • Like Like x 2
    6. JC
      JC
      Depending on what rookies you have, I'm not sure there will be many chances to use ZGL as a loop. Giants play pretty early in the round for the next 5 or 6 rounds at least. I was hoping to use him loophole Fritsch & Ryan, but other than this week there's no opportunity to do that until round 11 I think.
      • Like Like x 2
    7. Jason
      Jason
      Top shelf p_l :cool:

      My rookies are:

      DEF: Bonner, Doedee, Finlayson, (Murray, Murphy)
      MID: LDU, Kelly, Holman (Brayshaw, Banfield, Barry)
      RUC: English
      FWD: Fritsch, Ryan (Venables, Caddy also benched this week with suspension)

      Going by the numbers above, I can't see a reason to change any of these guys. This may be the first season in a long time that I'm not making any rookie-correction trades between R2 and R3.
      • Like Like x 2
    8. JC
      JC
      Thanks, p_l.

      Naughton's output and ZGL's injury are my only rookie concerns. Naughton to a mid rookie is an option (pushing Finalyson into DEF). Lachie Fogarty's -83 BE has some appeal, but his JS would have to be shaky. Not a lot of options to swap with ZGL, so he might just be a hold.

      EDIT - Higgins' inclusion this week possibly gives me a 'wait and see' opportunity.
      • Like Like x 1
    9. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Thanks @JC
      Yeah hadn’t really analysed zgl loops beyond this week. I might look at moving him out and swing Garlett fwd and bring in LFog. Not sold on his js though.
      • Like Like x 1
    10. Bearfly
      Bearfly
      Just want to clear something up here - how do you figure Barry as having shaky JS???

      I can assure you that there isn't a single player not in the side that plays a similar role with anywhere near the form to even challenge Dom - I closely watched the Port Magpies game on Saturday and the only players on the AFL list that had anywhere near the form to challenge for senior selection were inside mids (Atley, Snelling) and forwards (Thomas, Neade) - in fact, the best 6 players in the Magpies game only comprised 3 AFL listed players, the other 3 were Magpies contracted "top-up" players (including my landlords son Levi Proude).

      Barry at present has pretty solid JS - the coaches love the way he's playing his role within the team, and there's no real pressure from similar types of players in the magoos atm
      • Like Like x 3
    11. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      What are the thoughts on O'connor? I'm thinking Out Lambo and Naughts In Gray and O'connor (all I can afford - I have all the others)
    12. Jason
      Jason
      I feel that O'Connor has the shakiest job security out of all the Geelong rookies. He has played only because of a late withdrawal due to injury.
      • Like Like x 1
    13. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      Thanks Jase - yes that was my worry as well. My other option is to bring in Ryan in the fwd line and go with Simpson in DEF (or other - I have Yeo and Laird)
      • Like Like x 1
    14. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Well most of the mail pre-season that he was one of those mid rookies we didn't know how he would fit in the side. Whilst there may not be many pushing for selection atm, he's not exactly pushed passed the "must haves"? And Port have a lot of them that go through the middle. So if things need to be mixed up he could be on the precipice.

      Similar to Banfield. We know Lyon likes him but what happens if a bad loss happens and he's only had minimal involvement. It's a risk we face with most rookies tbh.

      Still, thanks for the fresh perspective and good news. I've been happy to have Barry in my side and seems like a good trade in if people don't have him.
      • Like Like x 2
    15. The_Swert
      The_Swert
      No advice on what to do with premiums or mid pricers that are failing to live up to expectation, or options to replace injured players.

      Rookies aren't the only concern for this week .
      • Like Like x 2
    16. Grizzles
      Grizzles
      Port play the lions this week too and although they have proved to not be push overs I can see Barry knocking out a nice 100 that stays in his rolling average for a few weeks :p I'm stuck with Crouch, Rayner, Hibberd and Sicily. Sicily we hold for a week. Could do Rayner to Barry or Fogarty leaving like 210k left to get Danger for Crouch. Was crash hot on Danger all week but getting cold feet now after reading his 52% forward and good possibility of picking him up cheaper in a few weeks. Could look at Oliver, Selwood, Parker or Cripps instead and Bank a good amount of cash.
    17. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      I wanted to focus on rookies as they are the most important trade targets this week before price rises. Correcting premiums is also low in order of trades you should be doing if there is rookies or structure you need fixing.

      For prem options:
      Crouch - based on what you can afford and don't have, bring in either D.Martin, Mitchell, Cripps, Coniglio, Oliver, Fyfe, Parker, Selwood.

      Hold - Sicily, Zerrett, Zorko, Dahlhaus, S.Martin, Wingard, Neale
      Trade - Hibberd, Rockliff, Bontempelli, Menegola, Lambert, Daniher

      Watch - Kreuzer. Goldie or NicNat for replacement

      Any specific questions best to ask and people should answer.
      • Like Like x 4
    18. The_Swert
      The_Swert
      My rookies are pretty fine.

      My real concerns are O'Meara, Hibberd and Rioli.

      People are jumping onto Taranto, Bonner, Coniglio & Simpson this week. Are these sideways trades worth any merit?

      Missing out on a rising midpricer can be just as drastic as missing a rookie. Eg Yeo last year.
    19. Tylo
      Tylo
      Hey Bear. Wouldn't Amon be the likely threat for Barry?
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