Best Buys - Round 2

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, Apr 4, 2018.

By port_leschenault on Apr 4, 2018 at 11:58 PM
  1. port_leschenault

    port_leschenault Administrator Staff Member

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    Firstly, I want everyone to realise how great the TS stats section is. Seriously go clink on the link and check out all the information on different tabs. It's a gold mine of information. Huge props to @walesy always delivering the goods that we enjoy. Onto the article.

    I want to also bring attention to something that is really useful that I think is new (or I've only discovered it this season). When on SC site itself and on their Player Research tab there is now a column called $ Per Point. It's basically how many dollars each point a player gets is worth, the lower the better.

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    It highlights perfectly why rookies are so important and even if a rookie doesn't score lots, they are still valuable to our sides. Take for comparison Dom Barry and Andrew Brayshaw. Despite Brayshaw making more points (120 v 106), Barry is the better rookie because at his price his scores are worth $2213 per point compared to Brayshaw's $3305, and will make us more money in the long run (assuming he plays).

    As @anthak mentioned in his HS article, cheap rookies are the bedrock of any SC team and this is more evidence of it. All conveniently located on the site to help us with trading. Thanks VS!

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    Player of the Week - Tim Kelly (Geelong)
    This week is always more about taking a long view at all the rookies so not going to spend much time here especially as we should all have him but after 2 big tons, Kelly is clearly the best of the lot and could very well take Barlow's "rookie keeper" mantle. All in a team that's got 3 of the most talked about mids in the comp. Impressive.

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    I've separated all the rookies (I've defined this as those under $220k, arbitrary definition but a line had to be made somewhere) into their positions and will talk about them all as a group. Easier that way because my wordcount was getting too high doing them individually.

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    Defence is the smallest of the 3 main positions but there's a lot of good quality rookies to be had. The first 5 on that list should all be great cash cows and job security seems to be good, with Murphy the shakiest. Guthrie looks ok but at his price I'd have him only if you already have the other 4 and you don't want to use extra cash to get Bonner.

    Naughton isn't delivering for his price, so if owners don't think he or the Bulldogs can turn it around, then consider moving him on either to one of the main 4 or Bonner if applicable. Anyone selecting Brown is a masochistic or a Zac Dawson addict jonesing for a spud fix.


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    Mids are probably a bit lighter than we'd hope for or had in previous years but we still have some good options. Kelly and Holman are playing as you'd hope mature-agers would and look set to make a lot of money. The likes of Fogarty, Banfield and Barry should all be making money too if they keep playing. It's an important if - all have shaky job security and could just as easily be dropped this round or next if form or bad losses dictate it.

    The others here are all your expensive options. I personally wouldn't trust Jacobs score last round because he could always end up tagging but he is a more seasoned vet, so if he is getting the mid time should stay in team and do well. Don't trade into any of the others but don't trade out specifically unless you need to get on the bandwagon of another rookie. They should all have the best job security of the new players (except maybe Clark) and a good score in Rd 3 is worth more than one in the last 2 rounds because it will stay in 3-round price rises for longer.


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    English is on his own and it seems a bit silly to talk about just one player but he is a unique case. He is playing and looks like a decent cash cow so far and Bulldogs should persist with him even if he's having a bad game so it's obvious why he's so popular. One thing to consider with bringing him in his how it affects your Captain strategy if you're trying to use Cameron or Olango etc as a loophole option in the ruck. It may not be worth if it all your players are playing and you can't get that second chance to improve your C score.


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    Forwards, forwards everywhere. Have we really had so many options? The problem here, apart from being spoilt for choice is that there is a lot of potential land mines. Waterman may have the third-best BE but if Kennedy is back in Rd4/5 and he's dropped then you could end up holding onto him for a long time. Ryan is clear #1 and I'd say Fritsch is number 2. After that it really comes down to personal preferences.

    So you have anyone on that list with a negative BE, then hold onto them, it's not worth gambling on someone else. Though do note ZGL owners that he is in doubt for this weekend and he doesn't have the best of job security to begin with.

    Trading wise, you really should only be trading out an expensive guy like Rayner. Even if Fogarty isn't looking as good as the others, if you have him but have more pressing concerns then address them first. Marshall is doing well but will rely on goals, Gowers has unknown job security, Garlett/Venables don't look like having a high ceiling.


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    Going to list only the players with best BE here. Going higher in price and you enter the mid-price zone which is quite a gamble you really shouldn't make once the game has started. As discussed in previous thread, these players are more risky to select because there's no guarantee these guys will continue their scoring which is their main drawcard since they wont make as much as cheaper rookies. History says none are likely to be keepers, and only 1 or 2 will be worth it as cash cows. Caveat emptor.

    Bonner is the most likely candidate, he has strong job security now and playing a SC friendly game on a team that should be winning a lot. Christensen has the history to be a 80-90ppg player across a season. Fisher has had a major role change and could be worth it if this is him breaking out. The others are likely to depend on midfield time and role in respective sides. If these guys do pay off then they will peak early so be prepared for that if when it comes.

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    That's it! Hope this helps you have an idea on how to set up your team the best for price changes and how to set up for the rounds ahead. Let us know in the comments your trade dilemmas and any queries/commects you have.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2018
    • Like Like x 10

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, Apr 4, 2018.

  • Tags:
    1. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      Well it's bloody Thursday already! Seems like a good time to flick out a thumb poll, been toying with the following options this week and would appreciate getting some feedback.

      :1: Hibberd to Heater
      :2: Hibberd to Heater and Naughton to Bonner
      :3: Hibberd to Bonner and Brayshaw to Coniglio
      :4: Hold Fire
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 14
    2. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Rioli would be first priority. Try and get Coniglio? Taranto looking good but he's not going to be prem worthy rest of season imo. Simpson will be an upgrade target in a few weeks for those who didn't start him.
      • Like Like x 2
    3. bosco
      bosco
      Hi Guys, back for another season and real last minute rush job to put a team together this year. Really not prepared. I think I've made a couple of pretty average decisions but seeking some guidance in whether to cull now or persist. I've got Hibberd and Saad in backline and Shuey in midfield. Thinking of getting rid of Saad rather than Hibberd for Bonner and Shuey to Cognilio. Mostly happy with my rookies and seeing these as my glaring question marks.

      For some reason picked Shuey as a genuinely solid midfielder this year and haven't been totally proven wrong yet but last week's effort pretty average.

      Anyone willing to offer any feedback on

      Hibberd - Bonner :thumbsu:
      Saad - Bonner :thumbsd:
      Shuey - Cognilio :1:

      Thanks for any thoughts
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
      • Option 4 Option 4 x 1
    4. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      I reckon you're right in ditching Saad before Hibberd, Saad to Bonner and Shuey to Coniglio look like good moves to me.
      • Like Like x 3
    5. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Excellent contribution PL. Given that we will likely have Higgins as a downgrade target in 3 weeks, think it best to cop some short-term pain on Rayner/Dow as potential trades rather than doing corrective rookie trades now?
      • Like Like x 1
    6. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Possibly but if those guys have a good score say next week, then you'd not want to take them out until their price cycle goes through after R7. It's really up to the player, there's really only 6-7 must have rookies, the rest are next best available.

      I'm hoping Higgins doesn't play for at least two weeks.
    7. Bearfly
      Bearfly
      He would be if he was playing dominant footy in the SANFL, which is what he should be doing by now after the time he has had to develop.
      Amon, and to a lesser extent Aidyn Johnson, should have had the inside running for that spot over the pre-season but Barry was a much better performer over the duration of the pre-season, which has also translated into the season proper as well - Amon and Johnson were not very influential in any of the JLT games, SANFL trial matches and SANFL season opener, so they would both need to string together a few very strong, dominant performances to have any chance of ousting Barry on form.
      • Like Like x 1
    8. IPOD
      IPOD
      Going to have to correct my back with mills and Hibberd. Sold on Mills - Bonner but
      TU - Hibberd - Simpson
      TD - Hibberd - Heater
      • Like Like x 7
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
    9. insider
      insider
      I think I’ve settled on holding Rayner. He’s in the mid for me and I’ve already got Holman, kelly, Brayshaw, Banfield in there so no real targets to bring in that I’m excited about.
      Did flirt with the idea of moving Walters or Dahlhaus into the mids (putting Holman on bench) and doing Rayner for Liam Ryan (the only rookie I don’t have) but I’m not sold on Ryan’s must-have status and ability to be consistent and earn cash. Rolling the dice on him scoring 30,30,90,20,40 etc rather than a consistent 60-80.

      Edit: although now I may contradict myself in light of Toby Greene still out; Forces me to have no bench cover and English, Fritsch and Venables all on field.

      Help me thumbs:
      Thumbs up - trade Zac Giles-Langdon to Liam Ryan
      Thumbs down - stay strong and wear one (?) week of pain until Greene comes back
      Last edited: Apr 5, 2018
      • Like Like x 5
    10. anthak
      anthak
      Excellent article PL!
      • Like Like x 2
    11. HeavyMen
      HeavyMen
      Excellent conversations here Gentlemen, good read thanks PL
      • Like Like x 2
    12. JC
      JC
      One for the thumbs - ZGL to English?

      :thumbsu: - do it
      :thumbsd:- don't waste the trade
      • Dislike Dislike x 8
      • Like Like x 4
    13. stripey
      stripey
      Yes Taranto has looked great so far and have been considering a correction from O’Meara.... Scully going down only cements his place in the team I am thinking
    14. TheTassieHawk
      • Like Like x 1
    15. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Depends if you are living dangerously with Nic Nat.
    16. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Not the worst idea if you have Ryan, can easily swing him into the rucks at some stage I guess.
    17. ike2112_01
      ike2112_01
      I have both Hunter Clark, and Zac Giles-Langdon. And last week used a trade to switch Mason Cox to Westhoff.

      I was originally going to trade Clark for Liam Ryan (I have most other rookies already with exception of Barry) by switching Garlett onto my midfield bench. Already got Holman, Kelly, Brayshaw starting and Banfield and Crowden on bench.

      I have no other real concerns; Hartlett at the back, Armitage in Defence and Gresham in Forwards were my gambles and other than missing out on Coniglio I'm happy with what I've got - I'm ranked in the top 1500.

      Do I just carry Giles-Langdon and swap out Clark for Ryan?
      Or do I burn 2 trades and ditch Giles-Langdon and bring in both Ryan and Barry?
    18. anthak
      anthak
      Good work so far.
      Have you thought of a way to bring in Coniglio?
    19. ike2112_01
      ike2112_01
      Can't really get to him without using 2 trades to do it and leaving Clark and ZGL in place. Taking Armitage instead of Coniglio freed up cash to pick likes of Gresham instead of another rookie as at season start the forward rookie options looked sketchy. I only have about $85k in bank,and Armitage will still rise in value so don't feel I ought to trade him out just to get Coniglio. I'm all rookies or premiums across the rest of midfield (Dusty, Titch, Cripps, Fyfe).

      I actually think Coniglio over Fyfe may have been a good plan but I don't see it as worth a trade right now.

      Just gotta decide if its a bigger loss losing a trade to take out ZGL or losing out on a price rise for whoever I could bring in.
      • Like Like x 2
    20. anthak
      anthak
      Well I’m reluctantly holding Armitage, so I hope he starts scoring well for both of us.

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