Best Buys - Round 3

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, Apr 11, 2018.

By port_leschenault on Apr 11, 2018 at 3:04 PM
  1. port_leschenault

    port_leschenault Administrator Staff Member

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    Not much this week to talk about so there's not going to be a normal list format yet. The key points of discussion are what to do with Liam Ryan, who is unfortunately out for 10-12 weeks and Gary Ablett.

    Gary Ablett
    Rather straightforward. At $620,700 he can be turned into pretty much any premium you can afford. So if you don't have any of the top guys, grab them, maybe hop onto the Cogs-train too, otherwise it's who you feel is best.

    Which brings me to a point of discussion that's a good excuse for filler. Right now Jackson Macrae is getting a lot of love since he currently sits as the second best player after the freaky Mitchell. After only being in just under 3k teams, he's going to be in a lot more by trade deadline. Is he worth it? This is where diving back into the stats is a good idea.

    Last year, there were quite a lot of players who started with a 130+ average, here they are listed and with their final overall average:
    Dustin Martin
    3Rd Ave: 144
    2017 Ave: 119 (2nd best)
    Marc Murphy
    3Rd Ave: 142
    2017 Ave: 108 (16th)
    Patrick Dangerfield
    3Rd Ave: 139
    2017 Ave: 136 (1st)
    Marcus Bontempelli
    3Rd Ave: 131
    2017 Ave: 105 (20th)
    Oliver Wines
    3Rd Ave: 131
    2017 Ave: 99 (39th)
    Rory Sloane
    3Rd Ave: 130
    2017 Ave: 110 (10th)
    Scott Pendlebury
    3Rd Ave: 130
    2017 Ave: 107 (19th)

    Most of these players are very good but what this shows is that if you brought in anyone who's not in that elite bracket (Dusty/Danger) you got them after they had their best scoring period for the season (Sloane is kinda anomaly, remember he went insane for 5 rounds then really dropped off badly til end of season). You would have been better trying to bring in Mitchell, Kelly, Crouch, Neale or Oliver. Making that call though, that is the hard challenge.

    Scoring peaks are very hard to maintain. Right now I'd say by end of season Titchell is in line for a 130+ season, Dusty 120+, Danger anywhere and Fyfe to be the closest to 120 of the rest who will all mill around that 110 mark. That is what you need to consider first when wanting to bring in these players on big streak, at all price levels.

    So this to me says that the most likely outcome with the highest probability is that Jackson Macrae by the end of the season will dip to an average well below 120 and maybe 110. Bringing him in is then gambling against history. I don't see any consistency at the Bulldogs this year with the team in a bit of a flux and with a lot of players capable of going big, which week to week will skew things.

    Gibbs v Sloane is another interesting head to head. Is it likely that Sloane, will keep scoring at just over 100? Or that Gibbs will be a 120 player? Gibbs has never had a season above 108, whereas Sloane has had 2 seasons above 110. That's why he's the number one tag target. If Gibbs starts becoming more influential, coaches may change their focus which will be gold for Sloane, and we know he can score well.

    This isn't me telling you who to pick or that one will definitely do better than the other, but it is an example of the type of questions needing to be asked when you want to arrive at a decision yourself.


    Liam Ryan

    The news from his injury is not good and it's likely he is out for a long time rather than a few rounds. If you have both him and ZGL and wondering what to do the news now makes that decision for you: trade out Ryan. If you have a sizeable nest egg available because of restructuring last week than you should upgrade him to a premium. Someone you like and can afford in the top 20 who's not a key forward [named Buddy] or small forward would be my suggestion. Rookies listed in the section below.

    Rookies On The Bubble
    Ed Richards WBD Def $135,300 BE -50
    Jack Henry GEE Fwd $123,900 BE -46
    Esava Ratugolea GEE Fwd $123,900 BE -32
    Mitch Crowden FRE M/F $117,300 BE -31
    Adam Cerra FRE MID $184,800 BE -4
    Callum Brown COL M/F $224,300 BE -2
    Willie Rioli WCE FWD $123,900 BE 3
    Cameron Polson CAR M/F $130,800 BE 12

    Watchlist
    Nicholas Coffield STK M/D $171,300 66
    Jack Higgins RIC M/F $130,800 63
    Rowan Marshall STK FWD $219,400 79
    Brandon White STK DEF $225,800 43
    Nathan Wright STK FWD $183,300 32


    There really shouldn't be too much to do on your other lines, if you need a defender then bring in Richards but it's unlikely you'd have anyone to trade out. If you held Naughton last week you should still hold him now, his job security is fine for foreseeable future and could put together a string of 70+ scores which will make you bank.

    Assuming mids can be covered by a DPP let's then focus on forward line and Ryan. There's plenty of options this week out of those that haven't risen in price yet but no obvious standout. The most attractive option is Jack Higgins, massively hyped pre-season but disappointingly playing far too early for us than we would like for downgrade targets. Still, he should get plenty of games this season and looks to have the ability to post big scores if given the chance. Whether you bring him in this week or next before his price rise is up to you.

    For the others, I am wary of the Geelong players because their team selections appear so up in the air with all their young players and injuries. Henry appears to be the more SC friendly option playing down back with Taylor and Henderson out, but he had his own concerns with concussion and I'm not confident to call him a certainty. Despite having a million rucks, Ratugolea was their main R/F last week. I can't see that continuing but if it does, he could score great for a rookie. Also under his own injury cloud.

    Willie Rioli should see an uptick in role now with Ryan out. He doesn't seem to be a big scorer but a few goals and he should have a big-scoring game. Just don't expect it often but I think for now he's the guy with the best job security. Crowden is an attractive option but I'm wary of his own job security in a transient Ross side and scoring output isn't particularly high if 70-odd is his peak.

    Still they are all options so best to make your own calls. My trade in preferences would be:
    1. Higgins (can choose to hold off on this until next week)
    2. Rioli (his JS now should be better with Ryan out)
    3. Crowden (unknown how long he will spend in team but could be better scoring than Rioli)
    4. Geelong forward (who isn't dropped, Henry > Ratman)

    For next week, this may not be a common opinion but I'm not that big on Coffield that he is a must have downgrade target. Starting in your side pre-season is another thing but bringing a $180k rookie early is another. Unlike Higgins, he doesn't quite have the same junior form and he's nearly $50k cheaper. Not a must have.

    Keep a close eye on Rowan Marshall. May be awkwardly priced for us but St.Kilda used him as their sole ruckman after Longer was injured. Could keep his spot and be a potential option if people need a cheap playing ruck (*IF*).
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, Apr 11, 2018.

  • Tags:
    1. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Sorry for the bit of a read. Trying to flesh things out and I ended up halfway to War & Peace! For any of the traditional "who to get..." questions best ask here and the community should help with an answer.

      Also, next week I am unlikely to be available to create a BB thread but should still be able to get online.

      PS - stoked that last week there was a photo of Ryan and Macrae together, that was convenient! :D
      • Like Like x 3
    2. stripey
      stripey
      I'm most likely bringing Sicily forward for Ryan via DPP and getting Richards...
      • Like Like x 3
    3. tk
      tk
      Great article, thanks.

      Anyone have any words of wisdom on what to do with Z.Merrett? Talk about underperforming. I kept the faith last week and clearly shouldn't have. Now I'm nervous that this might continue if he struggles that badly with a tag. Should I cut and run (despite taking a massive hit already - $86K down in one week :eek:)... or should I hold on to him on the basis that it's wasting a trade and he might end up in the top 10 midfielders over the course of the season...?

      Thumbs up = hold
      Thumbs down = trade him out, stat!
      Last edited: Apr 11, 2018
      • Like Like x 9
      • Dislike Dislike x 2
    4. insider
      insider
      thanks to the TS family for the input last week; held strong with Dahlhaus and he went well... ignore the fact that i benched him.
      Anyway, an early opinion needed assuming team selection goes well etc etc:
      Thumbs up: Liam Ryan to Heeney, Armitage to Ed Richards - this moves Finlayson to mid bench and Sam Murray to def on-field, plus Venables to fwd bench (yay).
      Thumbs down: hold and wait. trades more important than having bench coverage in forward line.
      comment for comments ;)
      Cheers
      • Like Like x 8
    5. Owen
      Owen
      TU: Trade Ryan for premo, possibly Robbie Gray, possibly Toby Greene - uses most of my cash
      TD: Trade Ryan for rookie ruck/fwd to swing English into forward line. Save dollars to bring in Yeo or Danger in two/three weeks.
      • Dislike Dislike x 6
      • Like Like x 2
    6. headmandude
      headmandude
      I think a big consideration needs to be the season draw. The Doggies have a reasonably soft (fantasy friendly) draw coming up after the Swans - Syd, Fre, Car, GC, Bri. It's more likely that Hunter, Macrae and McLean (where are you Bont?) keep producing
    7. headmandude
      headmandude
      I was tempted to take Merrett at the start of the season but I was put off by the couple of whacks that he took during the preseason. I think the extra hit he copped against Adelaide have had an impact on him which helps explain his lack of production. He ought to bounce back to a 110-120 player. He's too good not too. I am a Bombers fan so there may be some unintentional bias.
    8. RPritch
      RPritch
      I disagree. Personally feel as though the opposition has no effect on mids scoring, but it does bode well for Bont who will score big in wins this year as a CHF. Mids can get the ball against anyone, but sometimes backs need it to go down back and forwards need the ball to get to the forward 50
    9. anthak
      anthak
      @walesy is the ticker working again?

      I used it last year to great effect. It’s a good tool to see how positions play against certain opposition.

      Great article @port_leschenault

      I’m considering parting ways with Billings, even though he had a 130 in round 1!
      I watched some of the saints game last week and he was playing as a very deep forward for most of the time I was watching.
    10. anthak
      anthak
      @dmandrews and other Saints supporters,
      what are your thoughts on Billings’ role and predicted output over the season?
    11. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Great work pl and some salient advice on expected premo output and likelihood of maintaining early form spikes.
      Ryan to Crowden for me to create an dpp link with Garlett and bank $75k. Not the most optimal use of a trade but no point holding Ryan for three months when already have Olango.
    12. anthak
      anthak
      Just checked his possession heat map. His possessions were pretty much 50-50 between def and fwd in rounds 1 & 2, but round 3 64% of possessions were in fwd half, however only 1 was inside fwd50.

      He was playing really deep fwd when I was watching but struggled to get the ball, partly because of that. If StK continue playing poorly and he stays in that role, you’d think he’d continue to struggle.
    13. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      If you have the money to fit in another prem surely do that? 3 weeks of losing 30-50 points per game because of it doesn't seem worth it. By Rd 6-7 we should be culling rookies anyway so even if Danger is ~$650k should be attainable. There should be no cash concerns with bottomed out forwards/defenders.

      Don't trade out Billings based on a one game sample.
    14. Penske file
      Penske file
      I am waiting for the teams to fall before I do my eeny meeny's. Need to trade Ryan cannot decide between Crowden, Henry or Richards. As you see I take the statistical approach.
      • Like Like x 1
    15. headmandude
      headmandude
      I’m keeping Ryan for the moment. I’ve got coverage everywhere and no rookies are screaming “must have” that I don’t have. For the sake of making 70k it’s a big move to make. If Ryan comes back mid season and continues the way he was then he will be a solid back up or upgrade option then and in the meantime he helps with loophole purposes.
      • Like Like x 3
    16. IPOD
      IPOD
      I’m in the same boat will hold off with cover now Fogarty in for Murphy and have cover for Murphy with Naughton! So I’ll hold and see what next week brings
    17. Penske file
      Penske file
      So now Josh Kelly wants to rain on our parade, groin injury, holding this week awaiting further info.
      • Like Like x 2
    18. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Quite a few rookies getting named for first time too. Going to have to make some awkward calls come Rd 6-7 with which cash cows to cull early.
      • Like Like x 3
    19. graeme
      graeme
      @Len - any hints about when Josh Kelly maight be back on the track? Thank you :(

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