Best Buys - Round 4

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Apr 13, 2016 at 11:12 AM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    So we’ve done our NRL tips for the week (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and figured “why not start up a Best Buys section?” before its time to do our AFL tips.

    Again, like TheTassieHawk, I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer but hopefully this will start a bit of a conversation.

    We missed the boat last week, when there was a lot of good buys and opportunities to fix your team (or completely stuff it up – did anyone trade in Bob Murphy off the back of his two 100s?), but there is still plenty of value out there.
    By position our Best Buys would be Marcus Adams as a defender, Aaron Hall as a forward and Max Gawn as a ruck (let’s hope you already have all 3 of those!).

    Which leaves our "Buy Of The Week" for round 4:
    At the moment he finds himself in the heart of less than 50% of SC teams, which some would say is evidence of the decreasing faith the Australian public has for a player to rise back after injury. I myself was a doubter this year, I too had no place in the heart of my team for this man – but we will be worshipping the son of god on Saturday when he takes on his cross town/state rivals and will smash out a 150+ score. I am of course talking about the great man, the original Perma-Captain, TipBetPro’s number 1 ranked player – Mr Gary Ablett Jnr.

    And now for the rest.
    I’ve chucked in a few comments, but please add more details and information in the comment section.
    Hopefully this format is fairly easy to follow, it goes:

    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE


    DEFENDERS
    DEF Michael Hartley (ESS) - 117k (+46k) - AVG=70 (on the bubble, got another solid 53 last week so not a bad option if you are still stuck with a rookie donut – but does he have job security? (that’s a question, I have no idea…)

    F/D Marcus Adams (WBD) - 226k (+68k) - AVG=105 (If you don’t have him, well there is no helping you – but maybe grab him now)

    DEF Orazio Fantasia (ESS) - 282k (+33k) - AVG=89

    DEF Josh Gibson (HAW) - 524k (+31k) - AVG=122 (his average may look good, but that is mainly off the back a 190 two weeks ago, I’d say buyer beware)

    DEF Bachar Houli (RIC) - 535k (+23k) - AVG=115

    Midfielders
    MID Josh Dunkley (WBD) - 117k (+24k) - AVG=47 (he is also on the bubble, and will remain there until he plays again – will that be soon? I hope so because he is still in our team…)

    MID Jade Gresham (STK) - 144k (+12k) - AVG=41

    MID Brent Macaffer (COL) - 174k (+3k) - AVG=38

    MID Aaron YOUNG (PTA) - 253k (+48k) - AVG=98

    MID Tom LIBERATORE (WBD) - 404k (+22k) - AVG=105 (good value for his price, but will he be a gun/keeper? May not be worth bringing in if you don’t already have him)

    MID James Kelly (ESS) - 451k (+26k) - AVG=111 (Again, good value for his price but not sure if this will last)

    MID David Zaharakis (ESS) - 469k (+26k) - AVG=122 (In the new-look, or is that old-look, Essendon will Zaharakis be a gun midfielder?)

    MID Jack Ziebell (NTH) - 491k (+23k) - AVG=109

    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 578k (+12k) - AVG=135

    MID Robbie Gray (PTA) - 608k (+6k) - AVG=126

    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 636k (+3k) - AVG=131 (BOTW – need I say more…)

    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 658k (-4k) - AVG=135 (Who would not have this man in their team? Well us, which was my fault – I point this out so that maybe you think twice before taking my SC advice!)

    Rucks

    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 563k (+13k) - AVG=117 (for those sad few people out there with Sandi, Gawn would make a great replacement – he didn’t score as much as Goldy, but he definitely had the better of him for much of the game - IMHO)

    R/M Mark Blicavs (GEE) - 574k (+3k) - AVG=118

    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 688k (-4k) - AVG=131

    Forwards
    M/F Jayden Short (RIC) - 117k (+26k) - AVG=49 (on the bubble, but I have no idea about his JS – any Richmond fans out there want to share their thoughts?)

    FWD Nicholas Kommer (ESS) - 124k (+10k) - AVG=35

    FWD Daniel Rioli (RIC) - 158k (+15k) - AVG=47

    FWD Charlie Curnow (CAR) - 171k (+14k) - AVG=48

    FWD Callum Ah Chee (GCS) - 189k (+30k) - AVG=67

    FWD Jed Lamb (CAR) - 190k (0k) - AVG=38

    M/F Daniel Wells (NTH) - 318k (+42k) - AVG=103 (if he continues this form, then he is still well under valued)

    M/F Aaron Hall (GCS) - 488k (+32k) - AVG=129 (as previously said, Hall was and still is a great pick up)

    FWD Eddie Betts (ADE) - 489k (+22k) - AVG=109

    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 508k (+45k) - AVG=140 (Why is Waite mentioned here? Well he is averaging 140 with all scores above 120 –yes he is Waite, but stats don’t lie – although I myself won’t be touching Waite…)

    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 543k (+22k) - AVG=130

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.
    Also, I had some vague cut-offs for who made the grade:
    • Anyone who was going to go up by +25k (good value)
    • Anyone worth less than 200k and has played 2 games (rookies on the bubble)
    • Anyone averaging more than 125 (guns)
    Does anyone have any thoughts on these? Suggested changes for next week?

    As for what I’ll be doing with our team this week? Well we have plenty of money that I could spend, but I think I’ll refrain from trading this week in the hope that our rookies will go up and Danger will go down.
    And hopefully Dunkley gets a few more games – I believe their maybe a spot opening up on the Doggies team…

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    Kim

    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL
     
    • Like Like x 5

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016.

    1. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      This is an interesting point, I have been trying to work out what the perfect team at the end of the season will be. Don't want to hijack the thread but would be interested in people's thoughts. Here's my view.

      Defenders - Locks: Gibson, Houli, Shaw, Rance.
      Possibles: Docherty, Laird, McVeigh, Kolodjashnij, JJ, Burgoyne, Enright, Simpson. Hopefully: Adams
      Forwards - Locks: Zorko, Dahlhaus, Hall, Martin, Deledio.
      Possibles: Josh J. Kennedy, Franklin, Harvey, Montagna, Zac Merrett, Wells, Bennell
      Rucks - Locks: Goldstein, Gawn.
      Possibles: Blicavs, NicNat, Martin
      Mids - Locks: Danger, Fyfe, Ablett, Pendles.
      Possibles: Parker, Grey, M Mitchell, T Mitchell, Zaharakis, Priddis, Hannebery, Ward, Cotchin, Beams, Sloane, J Selwood Hopefully: Libba, Rockliff
    2. Nick
      Nick
      Nice to see many of my players in the Lock section!
      Not sure Pendles is a lock in the mids this year...Parker and Gray look the goods.
      • Like Like x 1
    3. walesy
      walesy
      Solid list mate- Reckon you've got the main ones covered.

      Pretty happy the the only "keeper" on my list thus far is Barlow. :D
    4. Nick
      Nick
      Not sure whether to trade or not this week, team is in pretty good shape, have $151k in the bank and only glaring omissions were MCrouch over Libba, and I also have Gresham like most.

      I know its a week late, but is correctional trade MCrouch > Libba...

      TU: Go for it, must have Libba
      TD: Sideways, don't do it

      Thanks
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
    5. walesy
      walesy
      Gotta ask the question- what do you get out of making the trade?

      Reckon Mrouch will continue to knock out 90's while Libba knocks out 105's?

      Is 105 a keeper score, or will you be looking to upgrade that come round 12?

      Then do some numbers.

      Assuming 105 and 90 over a season, will net you upwards of 300 points. A winning trade in anyone's book.

      But, if you'll be upgrading him in under 10 weeks, then that benefit becomes what, 150? Little under.

      Essentially covering a single donut later on.

      For mine, it feels a little points chasey, but if you feel that Libba will become a bona-fide mid keeper (as he was before his injury) then get on.
      • Like Like x 5
    6. Nick
      Nick
      All good advice, may just leave it I'm thinking. Libba looks good but not back to his 120 average of yesteryear - yet.

      Captain choice is interesting this week...

      Goldy v.s. Freo sans Sandi
      Gaz v.s. Brisbane without Rocky
      Danger v.s. Essendon

      Personally have got the C on Danger as I don't think anyone from the bombers can stop him, could go really big.

      What have others gone?
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 2
    7. Len
      Len
      I'll be backing Danger as I don't have Goldy
      • Like Like x 1
    8. walesy
      walesy
      I've got the VC on Danger, cause he plays before Gaz/Goldie.

      Not sure which of those two I'll go with if he fails though.
    9. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I was going to go with Selwood (I don't have either of those), but just thinking about it now - will Crowley tag one of Selwood or Danger, and will it impact their scores?
    10. GaryReal
      GaryReal
      i think hartley will be a very good onfield rookie
    11. Len
      Len
      Fair point, Crowley had the better of Danger when they last played in 2014. I think he would go to danger over duckwood too
    12. JC
      JC
      A year out of the game and a year older, I'm yet to be convinced that Crowley's effectiveness as a tagger is what it once was.
      • Like Like x 3
    13. Bearfly
      Bearfly
      Crowley done bugger all tagging against Port on Friday night and listening to Woosha in his presser he pretty much said they have other roles for Ryan in this team - doubt he will change his mind and try to get Crowley to tag either Danger or Ducky
      • Like Like x 2
    14. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      Yes, was probably the least certain of the lot but he has been playing with saw ribs limiting his impact and has been a lock for many years.
    15. Owen
      Owen
      If neither Gresham or Hewett are named this week, who would you trade?

      TU: Gresham, he's not coming back for a while - cut your losses
      TD: Hewett, Sydney will be welcoming back players soon and he'll miss out for an extended period. Plus, he only got like 19 right?
      • Like Like x 5
      • Dislike Dislike x 4
    16. BigRon81
      BigRon81
      Ill put the VC on danger then decide on either Ablett or Goldy for C if that doesn't work out I reckon.
    17. mobya
      mobya
      I'm getting rid of Crouch - not enough $ for a premo mid upgrade, but enough for a fwd.
      Either thinking Z Merrett and pocket 45k (I reckon he's the 2nd best Mid at Bombers this year) or spend the lot and get Zorko (baring in mind Rocky and eventually Beams to return, which I think will effect his scores).

      TU:Merrett
      TD:Zorko
      Last edited: Apr 14, 2016
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
    18. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      I can only loophole Friday nights game so VC on Priddis, C to Danger but Goldie very tempting too.
    19. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      Crowley hasn't been tagging this year and also doing bugger all of anything else, I reckon he could be dropped this week.
    20. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk

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